Will Florida be within 5 points?

[Meatball Ron]

Unless the Republicans nominate a right-wing version of George McGovern the Democrats have no way of winning Florida by more than 5%. Democrats would have to lose the nationwide popular vote by 3% for Florida to go that far Republican.

No?

Democrats won the national popular vote by 4.5%, but Trump won Florida by 3.6%

So, a Democrat who wins by 2% like Hillary did probably would lose Florida by 5%. That is like 52-47% so I can see that.

But Hillary didn't lose by 5, she lost by a little over 1. Your post assumes uniform swing from 2020 / equally weak Latino performance in 2024, which is not impossible, but seems like a bold assumption this far out.

[Meatball Ron]

Unless the Republicans nominate a right-wing version of George McGovern the Democrats have no way of winning Florida by more than 5%. Democrats would have to lose the nationwide popular vote by 3% for Florida to go that far Republican.

No?

Democrats won the national popular vote by 4.5%, but Trump won Florida by 3.6%

So, a Democrat who wins by 2% like Hillary did probably would lose Florida by 5%. That is like 52-47% so I can see that.

But Hillary didn't lose by 5, she lost by a little over 1. Your post assumes uniform swing from 2020 / equally weak Latino performance in 2024, which is not impossible, but seems like a bold assumption this far out.

The trends could reverse or they could accelerate. Either one is equally plausible. I'm skeptical of the sustainability of the continued growth of the Leisure Class in Florida and am skeptical that the COVID environment will be a permanent cultural fixture. However, local Democrats have been "hard to organize" for a very long and who knows how many more voters are stubborn Democrats in Republican-trending areas that will finally give in to peer pressure. Of course the big thing for Republicans, and its not just Cubans, is that a lot of the "ethnic/minority vote" are very aspirational in their voting.

Sure, I was just pointing out that Motorcity's post assumes uniform swing as fact, which is silly but also just not interesting or insightful analysis. I agree with everything you've said here.

[Meatball Ron]

Unless the Republicans nominate a right-wing version of George McGovern the Democrats have no way of winning Florida by more than 5%. Democrats would have to lose the nationwide popular vote by 3% for Florida to go that far Republican.

No?

Democrats won the national popular vote by 4.5%, but Trump won Florida by 3.6%

So, a Democrat who wins by 2% like Hillary did probably would lose Florida by 5%. That is like 52-47% so I can see that.

But Hillary didn't lose by 5, she lost by a little over 1. Your post assumes uniform swing from 2020 / equally weak Latino performance in 2024, which is not impossible, but seems like a bold assumption this far out.

Hillary won the national popular vote by 2.1%. She lost Florida by 1.2%

Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5%. He lost Florida by 3.4%


In 2018, Democrats won the national popular vote by 8.6% and the GOP won Florida by 0.4%

In both 2018 and 2020, Florida was 7-8% more to the right to the nation as a whole

Following that trend, if a Democrat wins the national popular vote by 2-3% than the GOP will probably win by 5%. And that is assuming the Democrats even contest Florida

Yes, I understand the math behind uniform swing, thank you. This is not a novel concept. I'd suggest reading The Daily Beagle's post for a more interesting commentary on why the trends could continue, or even accelerate, but could also reverse. Lots of counterveiling factors that make it a lot more nuanced than "muh XYZ points to the left/right of NPV"