Cyngal - Murkowski 33% favourable, 63% unfavorable, down 15 points in primary.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

"A new poll commissioned by Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI’S primary opponent, KELLY TSHIBAKA, shows the challenger leading in the all-party, open primary by 15 points over the three-term incumbent. Tshibaka — a former Alaska Department of Administration commissioner who recently hired Trump’s 2020 campaign manager BILL STEPIEN and deputy campaign manager JUSTIN CLARK to run her campaign — leads 34% to 19%, while AL GROSS, who ran as an independent last year, pulls 18%. Tshibaka has 61% favorability among both Trump voters and Republican voters.

By contrast, Murkowski is deep underwater at 33-63 favorable/unfavorable overall and 10/87 among Republicans, according to the survey conducted by the GOP polling firm Cygnal. Though Trump has not endorsed Tshibaka, he has vowed to campaign against Murkowski for voting to impeach him.".

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1379067584671272960?s=19

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good that she lose, she isn't a Dem, she is blocking everything, bye Murkowski, you can't win this time on Write in ballot🤣🤣🤣

[S019]

I mean Murkowski is still in the top four, and she'd definitely win a runoff against Tshibaka, the more concerning thing for her, is this shows she could be in danger of falling to third in the runoff.

[UncleSam]

Tbh I’m not even convinced Murkowski could win a run-off with 33% favorablility...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2022 may not be an anti D Election but an anti INCUMBENT mood, we can have Hassan and WARNOCK losing and Dems winning OH and NC.

The H isn't a forgone conclusion yet, but if you don't believe me just put it on your maps next yr.

But this may produce a 1976 result, that may indeed happen, we had Collins winning and we netted AZ and CO


Murkowski is gone next yr, voters are tired of her flip flopping, impeach Trump and vote against Stimulus, they want a Politician that stick to the issues

[S019]

2022 may not be an anti D Election but an anti INCUMBENT mood, we can have Hassan and WARNOCK losing and Dems winning OH and NC.

Ummmmm no, in no universe is OH voting to the left of NH and GA, I will die on that hill

The H isn't a forgone conclusion yet, but if you don't believe me just put it on your maps next yr.

Tell that to like the 5 incumbents we're going to lose from redistricting alone

But this may produce a 1976 result, that may indeed happen, we had Collins winning and we netted AZ and CO

Collins won because she was a longtime incumbent, but idk what this has to do with anything

Murkowski is gone next yr, voters are tired of her flip flopping, impeach Trump and vote against Stimulus, they want a Politician that stick to the issues

Actually on the contrary, Murkowski is a pretty good state for a libertarian-minded and independent state like Alaska. Top 4 has also dramatically improved her chances as she no longer needs to survive a Republican primary, and she will coast, as long as a serious Dem does not jump in.

[brucejoel99]

I mean Murkowski is still in the top four, and she'd definitely win a runoff against Tshibaka, the more concerning thing for her, is this shows she could be in danger of falling to third in the runoff.

I'd be very surprised to actually see Murkowski wind-up being 3rd & eliminated. Not every AK Democrat is Al Gross (or of a similar-enough caliber, like Mark Begich), & those who are - especially Gross, given his defeat having literally just occurred 5 months ago - understand that they'd be stupid to run given that the "(D)" next to their names means that they're not winning enough of the moderate Republican vote that'd be necessary to win in the final round against anybody with an "(R)" next to their name like Tshibaka, in contrast to Murkowski, who probably gets enough Democratic & moderate Republican support in the final round to clinch a win.

[Frenchrepublican]

"A new poll commissioned by Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI’S primary opponent, KELLY TSHIBAKA, shows the challenger leading in the all-party, open primary by 15 points over the three-term incumbent. Tshibaka — a former Alaska Department of Administration commissioner who recently hired Trump’s 2020 campaign manager BILL STEPIEN and deputy campaign manager JUSTIN CLARK to run her campaign — leads 34% to 19%, while AL GROSS, who ran as an independent last year, pulls 18%. Tshibaka has 61% favorability among both Trump voters and Republican voters.

By contrast, Murkowski is deep underwater at 33-63 favorable/unfavorable overall and 10/87 among Republicans, according to the survey conducted by the GOP polling firm Cygnal. Though Trump has not endorsed Tshibaka, he has vowed to campaign against Murkowski for voting to impeach him.".

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1379067584671272960?s=19

If true that would be a very bad number for Murkowski, okay many Biden voters will put her in the first place on their ballot but she can't count on all of them so she probably still needs 1/4 of the Trump voters in order to get a place in the second round and if she is only at 10% it looks complicated

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 Murkowski won a write in campaign against Joe Miller just like with DeSantis and Andrew Gillium that isn't that impressive, we will see in both Elections how they both fair with real competetive races, but but are Vulnerable to defeat. I don't care if DeSantis Approvals are 80 percent, FL is always competetive and so will AK

[Stuart98]

Democrats need to run a good candidate in this race (not Al Gross). Alyse Galvin would be good since she ran ahead of Biden last year.

[MT Treasurer]

Murkowski's problem isn’t her lack of support among Democrats (as you can tell from this forum), it’s the fact that her support among Republicans has almost completely collapsed (to a greater extent than it had in 2010). Alaska's RCV system isn’t going to save her if 85%+ of Republicans consider her no different from a Democrat and do not rank her at all. I also don’t buy that she’d "definitely" win a runoff against Tshibaka.

It’s possible that the state's D trend saves her, but she’s in big trouble this cycle (and has no one but herself to blame for it).

[GeneralMacArthur]

Honey, you're at 10% approval among Republicans and Trump has sworn to personally end your career.... just switch parties.

[KaiserDave]

Murkowski's problem isn’t her lack of support among Democrats (as you can tell from this forum), it’s the fact that her support among Republicans has almost completely collapsed (to a greater extent than it had in 2010). Alaska's RCV system isn’t going to save her if 85%+ of Republicans consider her no different from a Democrat and do not rank her at all. I also don’t buy that she’d "definitely" win a runoff against Tshibaka.

It’s possible that the state's D trend saves her, but she’s in big trouble this cycle (and has no one but herself to blame for it).

I find this highly unlikely.