MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[Pollster]

Politico up with a story that multiple significant players are preparing for Cardin to retire.

Angela Alsobrooks is already staffing up reportedly (hired Tim Ryan's campaign manager) - she would be a prohibitive favorite and could potentially clear the field. Raskin and Trone are also mentioned.

[Pollster]

Didn't see one for this race.

Politico up with a story that multiple significant players are preparing for Cardin to retire.

Angela Alsobrooks is already staffing up reportedly (hired Tim Ryan's campaign manager) - she would be a prohibitive favorite and could potentially clear the field. Raskin and Trone are also mentioned.

Why would Alsobrooks be a prohibitive favorite? Is she more well known than Raskin or Trone?

She has one of the most rock-solid bases in the state - we polled the 2022 gubernatorial primary and MD-4 primaries for separate clients before she declined to run for both, and she had convincing leads in both even against declared candidates (including a statewide officeholder).

She's also a key Wes Moore ally (her endorsement likely sealed the primary win for him with the support it garnered him in PG County) and if he backs her out of the gate it could build a Baltimore + PG County coalition that would be insurmountable in a statewide Democratic primary.

She's also been a close friend of my partner for over a decade now, so I'm not biased at all

[Pollster]

With Trone running, Raskin potentially getting in, Ruppersberger an expected retirement, and Harris' district zooming to the left, there's a possibility for a major facelift in the Maryland delegation this coming cycle.

Watch for Johnny O to go for Ruppersberger's seat and Jawando to drop to the Congressional level if Raskin gets in.

[Pollster]

Mfume already backing Alsobrooks, a major flex for her in Baltimore.

https://twitter.com/AlsobrooksForMD/status/1656312482275655680?s=20

[Pollster]

Alsobrooks really coming out swinging.

https://twitter.com/emilyslist/status/1656652939614715904?s=20

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Raskin is probably the only remaining candidate who could make waves here. I like Olszewski but he's not breaking through in this field.

Johnny O has a clear path forward with a Congressional seat basically waiting for him when Ruppersberger retires, which will certainly be within the next few cycles if not this one. Wouldn't be surprising if he runs this race solely to have an active federal campaign account open that he can use to get a head start on raising money.

[Pollster]

Raskin out

https://twitter.com/jameshohmann/status/1677459208445337602?s=20

[Pollster]

That basically seals it. Between his health issues, the recent loss of his son, and the fact that he would have to deal with a bruising primary, I'm not surprised at all.

And honestly, given his Ukraine letter, I'm not too sorry. Alsobrooks will be a fine Senator.

David Trone?

He has little chance.

As best I can see, he's seen as a fine representative but just doesn't have any passionate supporters and Alsobrooks is racking up a TON of endorsements fast.

Trone also has no campaign staff - none of the people from his House campaigns are with him for this run and they are hiring leadership positions (like Comms Director and Press Secretary) on public job boards - something very rare for a serious statewide race.

[Pollster]

That basically seals it. Between his health issues, the recent loss of his son, and the fact that he would have to deal with a bruising primary, I'm not surprised at all.

And honestly, given his Ukraine letter, I'm not too sorry. Alsobrooks will be a fine Senator.

David Trone?

He has little chance.

As best I can see, he's seen as a fine representative but just doesn't have any passionate supporters and Alsobrooks is racking up a TON of endorsements fast.

Trone also has no campaign staff - none of the people from his House campaigns are with him for this run and they are hiring leadership positions (like Comms Director and Press Secretary) on public job boards - something very rare for a serious statewide race.

How do they normally hire for campaigns (I may want a job like that one day so genuinely curious)

Poster above me is generally right. The good folks at the DCCC/DSCC/DGA/etc often work with candidates they recruit to get them good, well-established, and proven people in key campaign roles. Lots of campaigns (often major mayorals, who don't have committees like the aforementioned to refer to) also hire "general consultants" or "chief strategists" (usually well-established consultants like admakers, pollsters, direct mail people, etc) to advise early campaign decision-making and they will bring in and hire the key folks on campaign payroll and subsequently advise the campaign in a broader way than they might in their usual role.

Lots of campaigns do hire lower-level positions (research associates, digital strategists, field organizers, etc) on public job boards and that's a great place to get started. If you are talented, knowledgeable, and committed - and I assume you are - people will notice fast and they'll remember.