MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[oldtimer]

I will say, though, I did not have Larry Hogan running for Senate on my bingo card… he declined to run in the past, and said he had no interest in the Senate. With the way he’s criticized Trump, I thought a No Labels/third party presidential bid from Hogan was more likely than a Senate run.

I can't see him beating Haley's margins in the primary, feels like an incoming embarrassment.

[Spectator]

I wonder if he'll hit 40%.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I will say, though, I did not have Larry Hogan running for Senate on my bingo card… he declined to run in the past, and said he had no interest in the Senate. With the way he’s criticized Trump, I thought a No Labels/third party presidential bid from Hogan was more likely than a Senate run.

Hogan is Republicans Bullock

[Spectator]

I will say, though, I did not have Larry Hogan running for Senate on my bingo card… he declined to run in the past, and said he had no interest in the Senate. With the way he’s criticized Trump, I thought a No Labels/third party presidential bid from Hogan was more likely than a Senate run.

Hogan is Republicans Bullock

His chance to run was 2022 without a presidential race atop the ticket and while he still had the influence of the governor's office behind him. He wouldn't have won then, but it probably still would have been a Van Hollen win in the teens.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Endorsing Hogan

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Good candidate quality is honestly less important than poor candidate quality. The bigger issue for Hogan is that both Trone and Alsobrooks are fairly close to Generic D in different ways, and neither of them are likely to give him the opening he needs to make up a lot of ground.

[President Johnson]

Wait, Hogan is really running? Assuming he wins the primary, this would be bad news for Democrats and at least give either Throne or Alsobrooks a race for their money. However, I expect partisanship to bail them out.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/timjhogan/status/1756003559827509523

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I will say, though, I did not have Larry Hogan running for Senate on my bingo card… he declined to run in the past, and said he had no interest in the Senate. With the way he’s criticized Trump, I thought a No Labels/third party presidential bid from Hogan was more likely than a Senate run.

Hogan is Republicans Bullock

I disagree because Bullock was running against an incumbent. If it was an open seat, I think Bullock could have absolutely come within 5 points. The better comparison for this race would be Bredesen in 2018 TN.

[TML]

I will say, though, I did not have Larry Hogan running for Senate on my bingo card… he declined to run in the past, and said he had no interest in the Senate. With the way he’s criticized Trump, I thought a No Labels/third party presidential bid from Hogan was more likely than a Senate run.

Hogan is Republicans Bullock

I disagree because Bullock was running against an incumbent. If it was an open seat, I think Bullock could have absolutely come within 5 points. The better comparison for this race would be Bredesen in 2018 TN.

I'd say a more apt comparison would be Linda Lingle (who was also two years removed from the end of her tenure as governor when she ran for Senate).

[Reactionary Libertarian]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

Maryland is very non-white, which means that racial depolarization helps Trump here. Also, Trump is doing about 7 points better nationally than 2020.

Maryland is very black, which means racial depolarization won’t be happening here. Trump is not getting massive improvements with the black vote. A few points from swings in inner cities and rural black voters? Sure. Racial depolarization is mainly Hispanics shifting right and whites shifting left. And Maryland has a lot of highly-educated blacks, who are not swinging to Trump regardless.

Maryland is the worst state demographically for the GOP. Lots of college-educated whites, very large black population. Hogan has no chance.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

Maryland is very non-white, which means that racial depolarization helps Trump here. Also, Trump is doing about 7 points better nationally than 2020.

Maryland is very black, which means racial depolarization won’t be happening here. Trump is not getting massive improvements with the black vote. A few points from swings in inner cities and rural black voters? Sure. Racial depolarization is mainly Hispanics shifting right and whites shifting left. And Maryland has a lot of highly-educated blacks, who are not swinging to Trump regardless.

Maryland is the worst state demographically for the GOP. Lots of college-educated whites, very large black population. Hogan has no chance.

Polls show Trump getting nearly 20% of the black vote, and turnout could easily be far lower.

[Tekken_Guy]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

Maryland is very non-white, which means that racial depolarization helps Trump here. Also, Trump is doing about 7 points better nationally than 2020.

Maryland is very black, which means racial depolarization won’t be happening here. Trump is not getting massive improvements with the black vote. A few points from swings in inner cities and rural black voters? Sure. Racial depolarization is mainly Hispanics shifting right and whites shifting left. And Maryland has a lot of highly-educated blacks, who are not swinging to Trump regardless.

Maryland is the worst state demographically for the GOP. Lots of college-educated whites, very large black population. Hogan has no chance.

Polls show Trump getting nearly 20% of the black vote, and turnout could easily be far lower.

Trump won’t get 20% of the black vote. The black voters saying they’ll vote for Trump probably don’t even show up to vote.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

Maryland is very non-white, which means that racial depolarization helps Trump here. Also, Trump is doing about 7 points better nationally than 2020.

Maryland is very black, which means racial depolarization won’t be happening here. Trump is not getting massive improvements with the black vote. A few points from swings in inner cities and rural black voters? Sure. Racial depolarization is mainly Hispanics shifting right and whites shifting left. And Maryland has a lot of highly-educated blacks, who are not swinging to Trump regardless.

Maryland is the worst state demographically for the GOP. Lots of college-educated whites, very large black population. Hogan has no chance.

Polls show Trump getting nearly 20% of the black vote, and turnout could easily be far lower.

Trump is not getting 20% of the black vote, period.
To the extent that he does make gains, it won’t be among highly-educated blacks that are disproportionately represented in Maryland, so we should expect less gains there than nationally.
Furthermore, kind of black people who flip to Trump 2024 are low-propensity voters, so lowering turnout should lower the percentage of black voters Trump/Hogan wins (although it would increase the percentage they win in Maryland overall.

In short, Hogan has no chance.

[Tekken_Guy]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

Maryland is very non-white, which means that racial depolarization helps Trump here. Also, Trump is doing about 7 points better nationally than 2020.

Maryland is very black, which means racial depolarization won’t be happening here. Trump is not getting massive improvements with the black vote. A few points from swings in inner cities and rural black voters? Sure. Racial depolarization is mainly Hispanics shifting right and whites shifting left. And Maryland has a lot of highly-educated blacks, who are not swinging to Trump regardless.

Maryland is the worst state demographically for the GOP. Lots of college-educated whites, very large black population. Hogan has no chance.

Polls show Trump getting nearly 20% of the black vote, and turnout could easily be far lower.

Trump is not getting 20% of the black vote, period.
To the extent that he does make gains, it won’t be among highly-educated blacks that are disproportionately represented in Maryland, so we should expect less gains there than nationally.
Furthermore, kind of black people who flip to Trump 2024 are low-propensity voters, so lowering turnout should lower the percentage of black voters Trump/Hogan wins (although it would increase the percentage they win in Maryland overall.

In short, Hogan has no chance.

Actually it does increase Trump’s vote share of black voters. Winning 1 out of 20 black voters is a higher share than 1 out of 30.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

Maryland is very non-white, which means that racial depolarization helps Trump here. Also, Trump is doing about 7 points better nationally than 2020.

Maryland is very black, which means racial depolarization won’t be happening here. Trump is not getting massive improvements with the black vote. A few points from swings in inner cities and rural black voters? Sure. Racial depolarization is mainly Hispanics shifting right and whites shifting left. And Maryland has a lot of highly-educated blacks, who are not swinging to Trump regardless.

Maryland is the worst state demographically for the GOP. Lots of college-educated whites, very large black population. Hogan has no chance.

Polls show Trump getting nearly 20% of the black vote, and turnout could easily be far lower.

Trump won’t get 20% of the black vote. The black voters saying they’ll vote for Trump probably don’t even show up to vote.

It could be Biden black voters that don't show up.

[Tekken_Guy]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

Maryland is very non-white, which means that racial depolarization helps Trump here. Also, Trump is doing about 7 points better nationally than 2020.

Maryland is very black, which means racial depolarization won’t be happening here. Trump is not getting massive improvements with the black vote. A few points from swings in inner cities and rural black voters? Sure. Racial depolarization is mainly Hispanics shifting right and whites shifting left. And Maryland has a lot of highly-educated blacks, who are not swinging to Trump regardless.

Maryland is the worst state demographically for the GOP. Lots of college-educated whites, very large black population. Hogan has no chance.

Polls show Trump getting nearly 20% of the black vote, and turnout could easily be far lower.

Trump won’t get 20% of the black vote. The black voters saying they’ll vote for Trump probably don’t even show up to vote.

It could be Biden black voters that don't show up.

Then Trump’s vote share amongst black voters goes up even if he doesn’t get any new black voters. But for Trump to get 20% of the black vote, black Dem turnout has to be abysmal.

[ralstonfan65]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

Maryland is very non-white, which means that racial depolarization helps Trump here. Also, Trump is doing about 7 points better nationally than 2020.

The non-whites in MD are much more college-educated that nationally. PG county has the highest level of college attainment for AAs than anywhere else in the country.

[Progressive Pessimist]

HUUUUUGE Recruit indeed!

Whoever convinced him to do that deserves huge props here!

He's this cycle's Phil Bredesen for you.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Likely D because Throne has the money to beat Hogan

[ProgressiveModerate]

If Hogan even makes it past the R primary. Far from a given.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Reminder that Larry Hogan could outrun partisanship by as much as Susan Collins did in 2020 and he would still lose easily. In fact, he could outrun partisanship by twice as much as he would probably still lose.

[Miked0920]

Id say Likely D is a reasonable prediction, Id give Hogan around a 15% chance of winning if he's the nominee, if he somehow loses in the primary which is unlikely Dems are virtually a 100% lock to hold the seat.

[Gracile]

And so it begins.

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1756000950202839462

His follow-up tweet is even funnier-

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1756001323219091538

He knows what happened to those two people, right?

[Roll Roons]

Likely does not mean Tossup.