MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the polls are oversampling Hogan you get a Hogan plus 15 poll and then you get a Hogan 3 poll

[Progressive Pessimist]

Everything will be fine once the Democratic primary is settled. Relax, everybody.

This is Maryland we're talking about here-the new micocosm for the Democratic Party.

Hogan has the lack of running against an incumbent and name recognition on his side, but that will all be meaningless soon enough.

[UWS]

This is such devastating ad that attacked Representative Trone's business practices and also compared Trone to Donald Trump https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCqQp11O6QM

[Roll Roons]

This is such devastating ad that attacked Representative Trone's business practices and also compared Trone to Donald Trump https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCqQp11O6QM

If you told me this ad was made by a Republican group to meddle in the primary, I'd totally believe you.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is such devastating ad that attacked Representative Trone's business practices and also compared Trone to Donald Trump https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCqQp11O6QM

The polls have bounced around there is no way Hogan beats Also Brook by 18

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Van Hollen endorses Alsobrooks.

https://twitter.com/AlsobrooksForMD/status/1782909007742517252

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1783465686821376201

[Sir Mohamed]

Van Hollen endorses Alsobrooks.

https://twitter.com/AlsobrooksForMD/status/1782909007742517252

I guess that for sure helps her.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1783465686821376201

Haha, this is like the entire Maryland Democratic Party.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Van Hollen endorses Alsobrooks.

https://twitter.com/AlsobrooksForMD/status/1782909007742517252

I guess that for sure helps her.

An endorsement from someone like Obama would seal it for her. He still has time to do it.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1783465686821376201

Is Hogan Thanos?

[UncleSam]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

[Left Wing]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

I mean I’d say the polling paint a pretty clear picture. Feels like this race is one of the clearest examples I’ve yet seen of the “progressive is more electable” truism you see thrown about

[ProgressiveModerate]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

I mean I’d say the polling paint a pretty clear picture. Feels like this race is one of the clearest examples I’ve yet seen of the “progressive is more electable” truism you see thrown about

I think polling is mostly a consequence of Alsobrooks having lower name recognition.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most polls overestimate Rs anyways

[wbrocks67]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

I mean I’d say the polling paint a pretty clear picture. Feels like this race is one of the clearest examples I’ve yet seen of the “progressive is more electable” truism you see thrown about

I think polling is mostly a consequence of Alsobrooks having lower name recognition.

Yeah, anyone making assumptions right now as to whether Trone or Alsobrooks would be better is just kinda dumb. They'd both perform similarly.

[David Hume]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

I mean I’d say the polling paint a pretty clear picture. Feels like this race is one of the clearest examples I’ve yet seen of the “progressive is more electable” truism you see thrown about

I think polling is mostly a consequence of Alsobrooks having lower name recognition.

I would say mainly because of the 20m Trone spent. Alsobrooks was overspent by 20:1.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

I mean I’d say the polling paint a pretty clear picture. Feels like this race is one of the clearest examples I’ve yet seen of the “progressive is more electable” truism you see thrown about

I think polling is mostly a consequence of Alsobrooks having lower name recognition.

Yeah, anyone making assumptions right now as to whether Trone or Alsobrooks would be better is just kinda dumb. They'd both perform similarly.

I've said it before in this thread: I think Atlas users just have some sort of unrealized bias against women of color political candidates. Most of the time, it is just assumed that they'd perform worse than a generic white guy, based on nothing in particular and no matter what the election is, which isn't too surprising given the demographics of the site's users.

[President Johnson]

Van Hollen endorses Alsobrooks.

https://twitter.com/AlsobrooksForMD/status/1782909007742517252

I guess that for sure helps her.

An endorsement from someone like Obama would seal it for her. He still has time to do it.

That's what I thought as well. I don't think Biden will endorse though, he has made little endorsements in Democratic primaries so far. Only one I remember is Shontel Brown over Nina Turner.

[Left Wing]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

I mean I’d say the polling paint a pretty clear picture. Feels like this race is one of the clearest examples I’ve yet seen of the “progressive is more electable” truism you see thrown about

I think polling is mostly a consequence of Alsobrooks having lower name recognition.

Yeah, anyone making assumptions right now as to whether Trone or Alsobrooks would be better is just kinda dumb. They'd both perform similarly.

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

I mean I’d say the polling paint a pretty clear picture. Feels like this race is one of the clearest examples I’ve yet seen of the “progressive is more electable” truism you see thrown about

I think polling is mostly a consequence of Alsobrooks having lower name recognition.

Yeah, anyone making assumptions right now as to whether Trone or Alsobrooks would be better is just kinda dumb. They'd both perform similarly.

I've said it before in this thread: I think Atlas users just have some sort of unrealized bias against women of color political candidates. Most of the time, it is just assumed that they'd perform worse than a generic white guy, based on nothing in particular and no matter what the election is, which isn't too surprising given the demographics of the site's users.

Christ, get a grip of yourselves! I think you ought to reflect on how invested you are in your candidate if you're calling someone "dumb" and subtly implying they're some sort of racist for merely looking at current objective polling reality. You lot may very well be right about how this turns out in the end, but I don't care for your tone one bit!

[UncleSam]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

Polling is crystal clear on this one, sorry. Trone is clearly the stronger candidate.

Doesn’t mean she’ll lose. If this were a normal candidate and senate race in Maryland then I’d say the Dem establishment should have carte blanche to endorse who they like. However, given that the GOP nominee is polling 15+ points ahead at this moment, endorsing the weaker candidate seems like an extravagance that Dems might regret come November (might, not will).

[UncleSam]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

I mean I’d say the polling paint a pretty clear picture. Feels like this race is one of the clearest examples I’ve yet seen of the “progressive is more electable” truism you see thrown about

I think polling is mostly a consequence of Alsobrooks having lower name recognition.

Yeah, anyone making assumptions right now as to whether Trone or Alsobrooks would be better is just kinda dumb. They'd both perform similarly.

I've said it before in this thread: I think Atlas users just have some sort of unrealized bias against women of color political candidates. Most of the time, it is just assumed that they'd perform worse than a generic white guy, based on nothing in particular and no matter what the election is, which isn't too surprising given the demographics of the site's users.

Facts don’t care about your feelings. The facts in this case being Trone consistently polling 3-5 points better than Alsobrooks in a general matchup vs. Hogan, and having a 20x fundraising advantage.

But sure, just blame racism. Peak Atlas #analysis.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

I mean I’d say the polling paint a pretty clear picture. Feels like this race is one of the clearest examples I’ve yet seen of the “progressive is more electable” truism you see thrown about

I think polling is mostly a consequence of Alsobrooks having lower name recognition.

Yeah, anyone making assumptions right now as to whether Trone or Alsobrooks would be better is just kinda dumb. They'd both perform similarly.

I've said it before in this thread: I think Atlas users just have some sort of unrealized bias against women of color political candidates. Most of the time, it is just assumed that they'd perform worse than a generic white guy, based on nothing in particular and no matter what the election is, which isn't too surprising given the demographics of the site's users.

Facts don’t care about your feelings. The facts in this case being Trone consistently polling 3-5 points better than Alsobrooks in a general matchup vs. Hogan, and having a 20x fundraising advantage.

But sure, just blame racism. Peak Atlas #analysis.

Calm down. You didn't have to double text me to get your point across.

It's already been pointed out to you that Trone's better polling is likely just because of his name recognition advantage, nothing more. Nothing Alsobrooks has done on the campaign trail has given us any reason to believe Trone is a better quality candidate. I do think it is a bit racist that even after his j*gaboo comment people here still believe him to be the better candidate.

[wbrocks67]

Alsobrooks would make this legitimately competitive tbh

She’d still be the favorite and the national party would probably carry her to victory in the end, but Trone would make holding the seat so much easier.

I don't see any reason to believe she'd be a weaker candidate than Trone.

Polling is crystal clear on this one, sorry. Trone is clearly the stronger candidate.

Doesn’t mean she’ll lose. If this were a normal candidate and senate race in Maryland then I’d say the Dem establishment should have carte blanche to endorse who they like. However, given that the GOP nominee is polling 15+ points ahead at this moment, endorsing the weaker candidate seems like an extravagance that Dems might regret come November (might, not will).

Polling does nothing of the sort to prove this. Trone has outspent Alsobrooks like 15:1 at this point, and the average of polls doesn't have him that far ahead. If anything, that speaks to him not being the stronger candidate, since you'd think he'd have a bigger lead. A lot of this is also simply name rec.