MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[Horus]

Didn't a Trumpy Republican beat out whoever Hogan endorsed for governor last midterm? Why is everyone assuming he'll breeze through the primary?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Due to fact MD has been known to elect Moderate Rs Robert Ehlrich and Steele, but he won't beat Trone he would beat Also rooks, and Trone is leading the D primary

Rs may not hold their vulnerable seats in FL and TX, TX we have a shot in NEB we have a shot

[DK_Mo82]

Dems should be glad this match up in a presdential year that's for sure. MD has just type of Democratic voters who would swing for Hogan sadly..

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems should be glad this match up in a presdential year that's for sure. MD has just type of Democratic voters who would swing for Hogan sadly..

Trone is gonna win anyways

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Didn't a Trumpy Republican beat out whoever Hogan endorsed for governor last midterm? Why is everyone assuming he'll breeze through the primary?

His opponents are borderline no names with barely any funding.

[Ferguson97]

I’m more than happy for Republicans to waste time and money here. Hogan has zero chance. Gubernatorial races are way less partisan than senate races for a reason.

Every penny Republicans spend in Maryland is a penny they don’t spend in Arizona and Montana.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Likely does not mean Tossup.

Yeah likely only means that a democrat could lose it in a massive GOP wave or if they nominate a truly horrible candidate ala 2010 IL or 2012 IN .

Like if 2024 turned out to be an 2008 style victory for the GOP or if democrats nominated Rashida Tlaib then this seat could be winnable for Hogan but other than that it’s safe

[David Hume]

In a depolarized, less partisan world that makes more sense, this would make the state a tossup on the Senate map... but this isn't even the year 2000 anymore.

Also, Maryland is, at the federal level, really Democratic, and remember Donald Trump is on that ballot with him.

Republicans held an open Senate seat in Maryland to single-digits in 2006, though admittedly the state has actually gotten much more Democratic since then.

Anyway, I think Hogan has absolutely zero chance against Trone, and probably only a sliver of a chance against Alsobrooks (like 1-2% odds) in the event of a giant Republican wave. I do think the campaign type is an interesting one -- Republicans haven't actually tried the "run really popular state-level officeholder in a deep blue state" playbook since it burned them in 2012. Polarization is way up since then, but satisfaction with both major parties is way down, such that if Hogan can find a way to dissociate from Trump while still holding on to the base*, against the wrong opponent in the wrong year a chance exists.

(I agree with whoever said he wasn't guaranteed to win the primary.)

*This is much easier in the general than you'd think, but one of the lessons of 2022 was that it's very hard in a primary; if you even try a total nobody will come out of nowhere and beat you.

If MDGOP is smart, they should let Hogan run as an Indy and file no candidate, like D did in UT. But this is a huge if.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trone is the type of D that can beat Hogan because he appeals to WC voters that's why he won't lose, if Also brooks win that's a different matter the primary

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/GovLarryHogan/status/1756301335673135590?t=ADxAELBlFxrK97h15...

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/GovLarryHogan/status/1756301335673135590?t=ADxAELBlFxrK97h15...

This will swing one’s of votes

[Octowakandi]

What does Hogan's path, if it even exists, look like? The 2018 map isn't a good barometer but neither is his 2014 map.

[Spectator]

What does Hogan's path, if it even exists, look like? The 2018 map isn't a good barometer but neither is his 2014 map.

His 2014 map entailed him winning Anne Arundel County by a 2-1 margin, winning Frederick County by 30 points, winning Baltimore County by 20%, and winning Howard County by 5%.

For comparison, Biden won:
-Frederick County by almost 10%
-Anne Arundel County by almost 15%
-Howard County by almost 45%
-Baltimore County by 27%.

Mind you, all these counties have gotten bluer every cycle since 2014.

In short, it’s not happening. There is no path.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/GovLarryHogan/status/1756301335673135590?t=ADxAELBlFxrK97h15...

This will swing one’s of votes

It will. In the Republican primary. Against Hogan.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1756160842725253539

[Kleine Scheiße]

Larry Hogan is a cynic, a grifter, a nihilist of the worst kind, the most corrupt Governor we have had in at least forty years, incompetent, a gladhander, an outspoken enemy of Baltimore, and an arrogant do-nothing. The only thing he has achieved in his entire life is convincing me that perhaps a general election vote for Trone could be worthwhile after all.

Anyone writing him off this early is either delusional or has zero exposure to Maryland politics. This is not Bredesen vs. Blackburn. He is exorbitantly popular, moreso among Democrats and independents than Republicans, and the Maryland Democratic party -- arguably one of the most pathetic in the nation -- has run screaming in terror from him every chance they have had to put an end to this nonsense. I have complete faith in my party to utterly drop the ball on this one.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trone is the type of WC whites that can beat Hogan that's a silly Endorsement on part of Golden

[Roll Roons]

Anyone writing him off this early is either delusional or has zero exposure to Maryland politics. This is not Bredesen vs. Blackburn. He is exorbitantly popular, moreso among Democrats and independents than Republicans, and the Maryland Democratic party -- arguably one of the most pathetic in the nation -- has run screaming in terror from him every chance they have had to put an end to this nonsense. I have complete faith in my party to utterly drop the ball on this one.

Look at the Massachusetts Senate race in 1996. Bill Weld was a straight-up liberal who was also super popular with Democrats and independents and had just won reelection with 70% of the vote. Despite that, he still lost the Senate race, and ticket splitting happened a lot more in 1996 than it does now. Trump will lose Maryland by at least 33 points, and as broadly popular as Hogan may be, he's not going to make up that gap.

[DrScholl]

Outrunning your party's unpopular nominee by more than 30% is impossible. Joe Manchin really is the only candidate to do this in recent memory, but in that case there was still a level of ancestral Democratic strength still active there and Republicans don't have that on their side in Maryland. Reaching 40% is possible, but there is no way Hogan can make up all that ground. He's another Linda Lingle.

[Oryxslayer]

[https://twitter.com/AlsobrooksForMD/status/1757009620755689659?t=dc6XJWHppfy43SO...

This is Alsobrooks's first ad, as weird as that sounds.  Did Hogan entering the race light a fire under her campaign to get this out ahead of schedule,  or did she always intend to start now rather than closer to the primary as it initially seemed?Only her campaign can say.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone writing him off this early is either delusional or has zero exposure to Maryland politics. This is not Bredesen vs. Blackburn. He is exorbitantly popular, moreso among Democrats and independents than Republicans, and the Maryland Democratic party -- arguably one of the most pathetic in the nation -- has run screaming in terror from him every chance they have had to put an end to this nonsense. I have complete faith in my party to utterly drop the ball on this one.

Look at the Massachusetts Senate race in 1996. Bill Weld was a straight-up liberal who was also super popular with Democrats and independents and had just won reelection with 70% of the vote. Despite that, he still lost the Senate race, and ticket splitting happened a lot more in 1996 than it does now. Trump will lose Maryland by at least 33 points, and as broadly popular as Hogan may be, he's not going to make up that gap.

To add onto this, large chunks of the Dem base is made of groups that just don't really split ticket federally; ultra-white college ed liberals and a large population of black voters.

I think there's a decent number of moderates and liberals in Maryland who may personally like Hogan to some extent but won't vote for him because Senate control is more important.

[coloradocowboi]

[https://twitter.com/AlsobrooksForMD/status/1757009620755689659?t=dc6XJWHppfy43SO...

This is Alsobrooks's first ad, as weird as that sounds.  Did Hogan entering the race light a fire under her campaign to get this out ahead of schedule,  or did she always intend to start now rather than closer to the primary as it initially seemed?Only her campaign can say.

It is too late but this is a good strategy. It's the Wes Moore/Barack Obama not progresive but progressive rhetoric aproach, which should work well against two rich old white dudes.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

[https://twitter.com/AlsobrooksForMD/status/1757009620755689659?t=dc6XJWHppfy43SO...

This is Alsobrooks's first ad, as weird as that sounds.  Did Hogan entering the race light a fire under her campaign to get this out ahead of schedule,  or did she always intend to start now rather than closer to the primary as it initially seemed?Only her campaign can say.

There's putting political opponents' faces on your ads, and then there's putting every single Senate Republican's face on there lol

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

[https://twitter.com/AlsobrooksForMD/status/1757009620755689659?t=dc6XJWHppfy43SO...

This is Alsobrooks's first ad, as weird as that sounds.  Did Hogan entering the race light a fire under her campaign to get this out ahead of schedule,  or did she always intend to start now rather than closer to the primary as it initially seemed?Only her campaign can say.

There's putting political opponents' faces on your ads, and then there's putting every single Senate Republican's face on there lol

Hopefully that race-baiter loses to Trone

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Interesting fact I stumbled in today; Alsobrooks holds that same position as Larry Hogan’s father (Lawrence Hogan) did. He was also the last republican to be Prince George’s County Executive (1974-1982)

Edit: Also Lawrence Hogan retired to run against Paul Sarbanes, and was succeeded by future governor Parris Glendening. Small state politics.

Edit 2: Lawrence Hogan also ran for governor in 1974 after being the only Judiciary Comittee Republican to vote for all three articles of impeachment, but lost lost the Republican primary because of his votes against Nixon. Somethings never change…