MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

“A pretty bad sign for Obama’s chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Lingle thinks she has a chance.”

[Gass3268]

Safe Dem is Safe Dem.

[ralstonfan65]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/GovLarryHogan/status/1755998920981799338?t=OpmCMHjWYsS2D7JBS...

[Independents for Nihilism]

I like Hogan, but no way he wins in a state like Maryland during a Presidential year. And that's assuming the MDGOP doesn't utterly sh*t the bed in its nomination process again.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

And so it begins.

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1756000950202839462

[ralstonfan65]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

A pretty bad sign for Biden's chances nationally at this point - internal polls must be interesting now if Hogan thinks he has a chance.

Of course he thinks he has a chance, he has 100x more name recognition than any of his Dem opponents. Good luck to him trying to outrun Trump by 30+ points on margin.

Trump will probably lose MD by 25 given where national polling and crosstabs are. Hogan won't win, but it could be only 10-15 points.

Maryland is one of the states with the worst demographic fit for Trump. I would expect he will do even worse there than in 2020

Maryland is very non-white, which means that racial depolarization helps Trump here. Also, Trump is doing about 7 points better nationally than 2020.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

He’s the best republicans to run, meaning he’ll loose by 15-20 instead of 25-30

[Vosem]

In a depolarized, less partisan world that makes more sense, this would make the state a tossup on the Senate map... but this isn't even the year 2000 anymore.

Also, Maryland is, at the federal level, really Democratic, and remember Donald Trump is on that ballot with him.

Republicans held an open Senate seat in Maryland to single-digits in 2006, though admittedly the state has actually gotten much more Democratic since then.

Anyway, I think Hogan has absolutely zero chance against Trone, and probably only a sliver of a chance against Alsobrooks (like 1-2% odds) in the event of a giant Republican wave. I do think the campaign type is an interesting one -- Republicans haven't actually tried the "run really popular state-level officeholder in a deep blue state" playbook since it burned them in 2012. Polarization is way up since then, but satisfaction with both major parties is way down, such that if Hogan can find a way to dissociate from Trump while still holding on to the base*, against the wrong opponent in the wrong year a chance exists.

(I agree with whoever said he wasn't guaranteed to win the primary.)

*This is much easier in the general than you'd think, but one of the lessons of 2022 was that it's very hard in a primary; if you even try a total nobody will come out of nowhere and beat you.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Titanium Safe D -> Titanium Safe D

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/VoteMarsha/status/1755996250992750932
I actually don't think he'll have so much trouble in the primary.

[JMT]

Safe D. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Hogan loses the primary (although, he’s probably still favored since there isn’t a clear Republican alternative).

[YE]

I remember thinking polarization would cause Susan Collins to lose. Likely D because Democrats are way more open to voting for the opposite side than Republicans are atp.

[SnowLabrador]

I remember thinking polarization would cause Susan Collins to lose. Likely D because Democrats are way more open to voting for the opposite side than Republicans are atp.

I agree with this, but to be fair, Maryland's a lot bluer than Maine.

[Fancyarcher]

I remember thinking polarization would cause Susan Collins to lose. Likely D because Democrats are way more open to voting for the opposite side than Republicans are atp.

Maryland is a far, far far bluer state than Maine is right now. It's not that great of comparison.

This race is safe D.

[henster]

Trone as nominee means Dems won't have to spent a dime on this race. Alsobrooks comes out as the biggest loser here today, she is now the riskier candidate.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/NRSC/status/1756007614989717626

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/VoteMarsha/status/1755996250992750932
I actually don't think he'll have so much trouble in the primary.

I mean its Maryland, whatever Kari Lake knockoff alternative they have doesn't even have a shot of winning. At least with Hogan they have a small chance.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/VoteMarsha/status/1755996250992750932
I actually don't think he'll have so much trouble in the primary.

I mean its Maryland, whatever Kari Lake knockoff alternative they have doesn't even have a shot of winning. At least with Hogan they have a small chance.

You'd think so, but in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, Hogan's endorsed candidate lost to a Trump-backed MAGA nut.

The key difference here is that Schultz wasn't that well-known statewide, while all of the non-Hogan Republicans are nobodies. Plus the national GOP is clearly going all-in on him.

[oldtimer]

Safe D. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Hogan loses the primary (although, he’s probably still favored since there isn’t a clear Republican alternative).

Indeed, Hogan doesn't have a chance.

Democrats wont vote for him because they have their own nominee, Republicans won't vote for him either because they hate him.

But does give an idea how silly the NRSC is behaving.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/VoteMarsha/status/1755996250992750932
I actually don't think he'll have so much trouble in the primary.

Daines and Trump seem to have come to a arrangement back when he endorsed him.

[oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/VoteMarsha/status/1755996250992750932
I actually don't think he'll have so much trouble in the primary.

I mean its Maryland, whatever Kari Lake knockoff alternative they have doesn't even have a shot of winning. At least with Hogan they have a small chance.

Hogan might come 3rd, although it wont matter apart from symbolic reasons.

[JMT]

I will say, though, I did not have Larry Hogan running for Senate on my bingo card… he declined to run in the past, and said he had no interest in the Senate. With the way he’s criticized Trump, I thought a No Labels/third party presidential bid from Hogan was more likely than a Senate run.