MD-SEN 2024: Cardin retiring, Hogan IN

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1693615795027181821?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Alsobrooks is still favored, but Trone has enough levels of institutional support that I don’t think his primary odds are quite as dire as Mooney’s are.

I'd say she's overwhelmingly favored. Isn't the majority of Democratic primary voters in Maryland actually black? I'd guess that also favors her, although it doesn't mean black voters just back her because she's African American. However, the state already has three black statewide elected officials (governor, lt. governor and attorney general). It's also the only entire black ticket that won the two highest offices of a state.

Aruna Miller isn’t black.

[Nutmeg]

https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1693615795027181821?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Alsobrooks is still favored, but Trone has enough levels of institutional support that I don’t think his primary odds are quite as dire as Mooney’s are.

I'd say she's overwhelmingly favored. Isn't the majority of Democratic primary voters in Maryland actually black? I'd guess that also favors her, although it doesn't mean black voters just back her because she's African American. However, the state already has three black statewide elected officials (governor, lt. governor and attorney general). It's also the only entire black ticket that won the two highest offices of a state.

Lt. Governor Aruna Miller is Indian American.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1693615795027181821?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Alsobrooks is still favored, but Trone has enough levels of institutional support that I don’t think his primary odds are quite as dire as Mooney’s are.

I'd say she's overwhelmingly favored. Isn't the majority of Democratic primary voters in Maryland actually black? I'd guess that also favors her, although it doesn't mean black voters just back her because she's African American. However, the state already has three black statewide elected officials (governor, lt. governor and attorney general). It's also the only entire black ticket that won the two highest offices of a state.

Lt. Governor Aruna Miller is Indian American.

That should count as "black" though? Just not as "African American" (though Elon Musk would technically qualify for latter).

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1693615795027181821?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Alsobrooks is still favored, but Trone has enough levels of institutional support that I don’t think his primary odds are quite as dire as Mooney’s are.

I'd say she's overwhelmingly favored. Isn't the majority of Democratic primary voters in Maryland actually black? I'd guess that also favors her, although it doesn't mean black voters just back her because she's African American. However, the state already has three black statewide elected officials (governor, lt. governor and attorney general). It's also the only entire black ticket that won the two highest offices of a state.

Lt. Governor Aruna Miller is Indian American.

That should count as "black" though? Just not as "African American" (though Elon Musk would technically qualify for latter).

“Black” pretty much exclusively refers to African-Americans here.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I want to caution everyone here against assuming that because Alsobrooks is black and the majority of Maryland's Dem primary voters are black, that she will win the primary over her white male opponent, Trone.

The last open seat Senate election here back in 2016 also featured a well-known black woman running against a white male Congressman. The latter ended up winning and then winning re-election last year.

[Gracile]

I want to caution everyone here against assuming that because Alsobrooks is black and the majority of Maryland's Dem primary voters are black, that she will win the primary over her white male opponent, Trone.

The last open seat Senate election here back in 2016 also featured a well-known black woman running against a white male Congressman. The latter ended up winning and then winning re-election last year.

The big difference is that Alsobrooks has locked up far more consequential endorsements from state officials and members of Maryland's congressional delegation (not unlike Van Hollen in 2016).

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1693615795027181821?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Alsobrooks is still favored, but Trone has enough levels of institutional support that I don’t think his primary odds are quite as dire as Mooney’s are.

I'd say she's overwhelmingly favored. Isn't the majority of Democratic primary voters in Maryland actually black? I'd guess that also favors her, although it doesn't mean black voters just back her because she's African American. However, the state already has three black statewide elected officials (governor, lt. governor and attorney general). It's also the only entire black ticket that won the two highest offices of a state.

Lt. Governor Aruna Miller is Indian American.

That should count as "black" though? Just not as "African American" (though Elon Musk would technically qualify for latter).

I think your confusion is the different concepts of “black” in America vs. Britain? In America it is exclusively people of African dissent, but in the UK it can and has included South Asians. The British Black Panthers did have South Asians among their founders. The UK has a concept of “political blackness” that incorporates more than African racial minorities, but such a notion in America is non existent.

Changing topic to not double post — I wonder if Lee could subtly use Schiff’s endorsement to paint him against the advancement of black women.

[Kleine Scheiße]

I want to caution everyone here against assuming that because Alsobrooks is black and the majority of Maryland's Dem primary voters are black, that she will win the primary over her white male opponent, Trone.

The last open seat Senate election here back in 2016 also featured a well-known black woman running against a white male Congressman. The latter ended up winning and then winning re-election last year.

Van Hollen won in large part because his Congressional office had a reputation for being more responsive to constituent assistance requests than Edwards'. That, and the fact that Edwards was (and is, to my knowledge) aligned with the Sanders wing of the party, which is not especially powerful in Maryland.

Alsobrooks does not have either of these problems against Trone, and certain negative things about Trone's reputation, both real and imagined, have preceded him in Maryland politics since even before he was elected.

[Oppo]

https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1693615795027181821?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Alsobrooks is still favored, but Trone has enough levels of institutional support that I don’t think his primary odds are quite as dire as Mooney’s are.

I'd say she's overwhelmingly favored. Isn't the majority of Democratic primary voters in Maryland actually black? I'd guess that also favors her, although it doesn't mean black voters just back her because she's African American. However, the state already has three black statewide elected officials (governor, lt. governor and attorney general). It's also the only entire black ticket that won the two highest offices of a state.

Lieutenant Governor Miller is Indian-American

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1716553218929385604?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4t...

[Oppo]

Moore owes Alsobrooks for her endorsement in 2022 that swung PG County.

Will Jawando (who dropped out a couple days ago) has also endorsed Alsobrooks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Excellent! She's going to make a very fine addition to the Senate.

Moore owes Alsobrooks for her endorsement in 2022 that swung PG County.

Will Jawando (who dropped out a couple days ago) has also endorsed Alsobrooks.

The Lieutenant Governor has also endorsed her, I believe.

[wbrocks67]

Trone should just drop out at this point, it isn't happening. Is it too late for him to go back to MD-06?

[Zedonathin2020]

Trone = Mooney on the whole "doa campaign" thing

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1736753576670535875
https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1736757852407021920

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1736753576670535875
https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1736757852407021920

Eh the house usually sticks to their own in senate races, especially when there’s only one representative running

[Zedonathin2020]

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1736753576670535875
https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1736757852407021920

This is 100% expected, why WOULDN'T the head honchos of the House Democratic Caucus endorse one of their own??

Now if this was any of the Marylanders endorsing him it would be a big deal

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Didn't the last poll show Trone up by 20? I'm expecting it to tighten a lot given Alsobrooks' local support, but Trone has been putting up a much tougher fight than I expected.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Didn't the last poll show Trone up by 20? I'm expecting it to tighten a lot given Alsobrooks' local support, but Trone has been putting up a much tougher fight than I expected.

There was one that showed that, but a more recent poll shows him up by 7% (34/41) with 25% undecided

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/SydneyKashiwagi/status/1749537249975234696

[Oryxslayer]

Today Trone released another internal poll with him up over 10 points. This is another data point on how peculiar the race is.

Alsobrooks has basically the entire Maryland Dem party behind her. But she has not spent a dime on advertisements so far. Perhaps because the primary is four months away on paper, but minds will be made up earlier than that, and many will probably be voting early. Trone meanwhile has spent over 10 million and has more big reservations planned. That's no doubt why he's leading right now, and why he will continue to lead if Alsobrooks doesn't let people know she exists.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Today Trone released another internal poll with him up over 10 points. This is another data point on how peculiar the race is.

Alsobrooks has basically the entire Maryland Dem party behind her. But she has not spent a dime on advertisements so far. Perhaps because the primary is four months away on paper, but minds will be made up earlier than that, and many will probably be voting early. Trone meanwhile has spent over 10 million and has more big reservations planned. That's no doubt why he's leading right now, and why he will continue to lead if Alsobrooks doesn't let people know she exists.

I read the MT-SEN thread, where what feels like books worth of ink have been spilt on the firefight between Rosendale and Sheehy over the past however many months... and then I read this.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1755991741516128724?t=aMwSHNW7Up4hW1bd1OvOj...

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1755991741516128724

[2016]

HUUUUUGE Recruit indeed!

Whoever convinced him to do that deserves huge props here!