Caspian Report: "China could invade Taiwan by 2027"

[Biden his time]

I urge you to watch the entire video.

[brucejoel99]

Mhmm, just like how North Korea was gonna nuke us every week for ~5 or so years, right? Pfft, this is nothing but utter clickbait nonsense. China's been "talking" about invading Taiwan forever now: how they could've, how they should've, how they might've, but they haven't. If an invasion was relatively imminent, does one really think that they'd actually be stupid enough to show their hand vis-a-vis intent? They know very well that the Taiwan Strait would be a watery mass-grave for the PLA's invading forces long before they ever reached the island.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I don't think Beijing would be reckless enough to try to invade Taiwan using military force. Especially when the status quo of ongoing economic and cultural exchange across the Taiwan Strait generally works in Beijing's favor.

[Tender Branson]

I think it’s pretty likely by 2030.

China could use the Russian Krim playbook and absorb Taiwan back into the motherland, committing large human rights abuses on the island and send objectors to the concentration camps together with the Uygurs.

If anything, it should be Taiwan though that invades mainland China and destroys the fascist regime there ...

[Tender Branson]

Mhmm, just like how North Korea was gonna nuke us every week for ~5 or so years, right? Pfft, this is nothing but utter clickbait nonsense. China's been "talking" about invading Taiwan forever now: how they could've, how they should've, how they might've, but they haven't. If an invasion was relatively imminent, does one really think that they'd actually be stupid enough to show their hand vis-a-vis intent? They know very well that the Taiwan Strait would be a watery mass-grave for the PLA's invading forces long before they ever reached the island.

Taiwan wouldn’t even know what hit them if China were to start an invasion ...

[Sirius_]

Mhmm, just like how North Korea was gonna nuke us every week for ~5 or so years, right? Pfft, this is nothing but utter clickbait nonsense. China's been "talking" about invading Taiwan forever now: how they could've, how they should've, how they might've, but they haven't. If an invasion was relatively imminent, does one really think that they'd actually be stupid enough to show their hand vis-a-vis intent? They know very well that the Taiwan Strait would be a watery mass-grave for the PLA's invading forces long before they ever reached the island.

Taiwan wouldn’t even know what hit them if China were to start an invasion ...

I'm fairly certain that a Chinese invasion is the primary scenario for which the Taiwanese military exists. It would be one of the grossest acts of incompetence in history if they were not prepared for a Chinese invasion. And Taiwan's geography ensures that an invasion would be hell for China, not to mention that the US navy is far superior to any other in the world.

[Tender Branson]

Mhmm, just like how North Korea was gonna nuke us every week for ~5 or so years, right? Pfft, this is nothing but utter clickbait nonsense. China's been "talking" about invading Taiwan forever now: how they could've, how they should've, how they might've, but they haven't. If an invasion was relatively imminent, does one really think that they'd actually be stupid enough to show their hand vis-a-vis intent? They know very well that the Taiwan Strait would be a watery mass-grave for the PLA's invading forces long before they ever reached the island.

Taiwan wouldn’t even know what hit them if China were to start an invasion ...

I'm fairly certain that a Chinese invasion is the primary scenario for which the Taiwanese military exists. It would be one of the grossest acts of incompetence in history if they were not prepared for a Chinese invasion. And Taiwan's geography ensures that an invasion would be hell for China, not to mention that the US navy is far superior to any other in the world.

The US navy there (if they are there) would be destroyed immediately, just like Taiwans military infrastructure ...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Mhmm, just like how North Korea was gonna nuke us every week for ~5 or so years, right? Pfft, this is nothing but utter clickbait nonsense. China's been "talking" about invading Taiwan forever now: how they could've, how they should've, how they might've, but they haven't. If an invasion was relatively imminent, does one really think that they'd actually be stupid enough to show their hand vis-a-vis intent? They know very well that the Taiwan Strait would be a watery mass-grave for the PLA's invading forces long before they ever reached the island.

Taiwan wouldn’t even know what hit them if China were to start an invasion ...

I'm fairly certain that a Chinese invasion is the primary scenario for which the Taiwanese military exists. It would be one of the grossest acts of incompetence in history if they were not prepared for a Chinese invasion. And Taiwan's geography ensures that an invasion would be hell for China, not to mention that the US navy is far superior to any other in the world.

Last time, China was too weak to even invade Kinmen. Now they are way stronger.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think it is obvious that the PRC *could* invade and occupy Taiwan if it wanted to. But it is surely equally obvious that it would only come at a scarily high price, even if it doesn't trigger a wider war.

Both sides know this as well.

[Bismarck]

All of my Chinese colleagues expect China to invade Taiwan within the next five years. They always say something like “Xi wants to be the one to reunify China”.

[Tender Branson]

There could be a formal agreement between China and the US that China can invade Taiwan in exchange for the US invading Canada.

Russia would tolerate it, as they have invaded the Krim and the Donbass.

[jaichind]

I still think the best way forward is for a PRC-USA grand bargain (more in the late 2030s) where the PRC agrees to a 1922 Washington Naval Treaty like constraints to its navy size and ability to project naval power beyond coastal defense in return for a free hand on Taiwan Province and a neutral reunited Korea and neutral Japan.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I still think the best way forward is for a PRC-USA grand bargain (more in the late 2030s) where the PRC agrees to a 1922 Washington Naval Treaty like constraints to its navy size and ability to project naval power beyond coastal defense in return for a free hand on Taiwan Province and a neutral reunited Korea and neutral Japan.

If you think that American politicians would naively trust the PRC in such a bargain, especially after how it has treated Hong Kong the last few years, you must think Trump is a typical American politician. There's zero chance that an agreement such as you propose would pass the Senate.

Moreover, the primary impetus behind the Washington Naval Treaty wasn't geopolitics, it was to avoid a costly arms race. For that matter, I can't see any of Japan, North Korea, or South Korea agreeing to this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I saw the entire video. It was quite interesting. The quote "maintaining peace often requires preparing for war" struck me as quite insightful, both to the Taiwan-China situation and other contexts.

[It’s so Joever]

A China which invaded Taiwan prematurely is a China which has clearly turned away from pragmatic foreign policy and has catered/succumbed to Sinocentrism.
We are potentially already seeing this, as evidenced by China’s recent unnecessary/unwise sanctions against the EU. If indeed China is turning away from such policy at a rate quick enough for them to actually invade Taiwan soon...they have other issues.

Yes China is a powerful nation, and no they won’t be defeated in a conventional war...but the US and the EU can make the lives of the Chinese people on the mainland h**l if necessary.
Maybe in a couple of decades, once the fruit of the investments China has made in less developed nations will bear, that wouldn’t be the case, but it is now.
This is terrible for the CCP because honestly, most Chinese people are not as brainwashed as Western Media portrays. Many understand full well the situation, but keep quiet because they enjoy the improving conditions, and who can blame them? Compared to the instability and starvation of China from 1970 all the way back to...we’ll really the Opium Wars, it’s understandable.

If China invaded Taiwan rashly, I expect swift and immediate sanctions to a ridiculous extent by both the US and the EU. This will screw the increasing prosperity of the Chinese people and will destabilize the nation.

I don’t think this is likely to happen soon given all of this, but maybe I am overestimating CCP leadership.

[2952-0-0]

Xi Jinping himself has admitted that the CCP will collapse if it tried and failed to take Taiwan. Hence, an invasion will only occur either if he's convinced he could win and present the world with a fait accompli; or if the CCP is facing such a serious internal crisis that it needed an act of desperation for its survival. The first is possible, because he's become increasingly high on his supply, and a miscalculation from the US could send him the wrong signal. The second, well, the CCP would have more pressing concerns, like avoiding getting overthrown.

Also, an invasion of such a scale would require a full-fledged mobilization of at least two months, and that would be ample time for even commercial satellites to detect troop movements. During these two months, there will be ample time for Taiwan to mobilize and for the US to assist it, including not-so-secretly moving nuclear weapons onto the island.

The Crimea option might have been plausible a few years ago, but not now. Taiwan's intelligence services have become increasingly aggressive at arresting CCP agents, and the CCP's propaganda charm offensive has been an utter disaster. The Hong Kong crisis of 2019 was given wall-to-wall coverage by Taiwan's TV networks, and that instantly turned any union with China into radioactive poison in Taiwanese politics. That's why the 2020 elections in Taiwan were the biggest landslide in its democratic history.

Whatever that can be done to increase the cost an invasion should be taken, such that the Beijing leadership keeps thinking that "we're getting stronger, but now is not the best time".

[morgieb]

If this happened, either China would collapse (if it failed) or the world will be destroyed (if it succeeded). So I doubt it.

[CumbrianLefty]

And as far as comparisons with Crimea are concerned - Russia's big ace in their hand there is that the majority of local people *would* (even taking into account all the obvious caveats) rather belong to them than the Ukraine. This is fairly obviously not the case in Taiwan.

[All Along The Watchtower]

And as far as comparisons with Crimea are concerned - Russia's big ace in their hand there is that the majority of local people *would* (even taking into account all the obvious caveats) rather belong to them than the Ukraine.

Which just goes to show how cartoonishly unnecessary that joke "referendum" was. It's like how the Kremlin wants there to be Russian elections that are very obviously neither free nor fair but still have a veneer of electoral legitimacy that distances them some the likes of North Korea or whomever.

[vitoNova]

That is the only geopolitical channel on Youtube worth subscribing to. 

[Not Me, Us]

Taiwan has a population of 23 million people. China invading and occupying the country would be extremely costly in terms of lives and money for not much gain, especially considering the immense international sanctions they'd face for it. I really don't think China would have much to gain, so I find it pretty unlikely they'll ever invade Taiwan.

[palandio]

As long as TSMC is dominating the market and almost all TSMC fabs are in Taiwan, Taiwan might have a big enough bargaining chip (pun intended). If the PRC openly invaded Taiwan and Taiwan were to lose the war, this would still take a couple of days during which Taiwan could go into scorched earth mode by destroying the fabs and thereby punishing not only China but also the rest of the world for its lack of support.

[CumbrianLefty]

Very good point, and I'm sure China is aware of this.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If the mainland decides to get serious about integrating Taiwan, it's likely going to start with economic force rather than military force. Military force would most likely not be used for a military invasion, but for an economic blockade.

[2952-0-0]

If the mainland decides to get serious about integrating Taiwan, it's likely going to start with economic force rather than military force. Military force would most likely not be used for a military invasion, but for an economic blockade.

An economic blockade using military force would be an act of war by itself, and no one has any illusions otherwise.

Cutting off economic links across the strait (if that's what you mean) would immediately throw tens of millions of Chinese workers onto the street, and that's something that absolutely terrifies the CCP leadership.

Using its economic influence to buy political influence to lead to integration has been tried since 2010. The problem is, this has backfired: the Taiwan-is-not-China sentiment has only increased since then.