gerald ford, 1980 storyline

[WalterMitty]

i want to get a storyline started involving gerald ford contemplating running for president in 1980.  his campaign would be based on the idea that the voters made a serious error in electing carter over ford in 76 and the only remedy for that error would be to elect ford in 80.

i only ask that people are serious.  no, 'ford dies and the russians take over'.

please begin.

[True Democrat]

After former Governor Ronald Reagan's decision not to run in November of 1979, George H.W. Bush became the frontrunner.  However, many conservatives were unhappy with Bush, so Phil Crane jumped in the race.  By January of 1980, Crane was polling at three times Bush in national Republican polls.  Bush then proceeded to drop out.  However, former President Ford felt there was still strength in moderate GOPers.

[afleitch]

With moderates in serious trouble, Illinois representative John Anderson was floated in the media as a potential candidate. Anderson did not have the clout to make the race tighter, but in a Republican candidates debate scored many points against Crane and brought issues to the spotlight, Anderson crept up as Crane began to look more vulnerable. Anderson would neither confirm nor deny if he would run as an independent should he loose the primary, but he continued to advance in the polls. This unnerved Ford, who had been following the campaign who was now questioning Anderson's loyalty. In late February 1980 former President Gerald Ford answered one of political historys most famous phonecalls...

[Lincoln Republican]

On the phone is none other than Ronald Reagan himself.

"Hi Gerry," says Reagan, "I want to discuss the upcoming election with you.  With your approval, I would like to go on a cross country speaking tour to promote your candidacy for President.  Do you think that would be helpful?"

"Ron," replies Ford, "that would, I'm sure, prove invaluable.  I can't tell you how much that would mean to me."

"OK," says Reagan, "I'll start the tour one week from today." 

[True Democrat]

Even Ford himself is surprised by Reagan's offer.  The next day, Ford calls Reagan to again thank him, and ask him why is campaigning for him.  Reagan replies, "To me, defeating Carter is the most important thing.  He is running this country into the ground.  I know you're the best chance of defeating Carter.  I'm too old, and my political career is dead, so I think the best service I can do to America is working for you.  And before you even think about it, I will not accept any offer to run for Vice-President."

On February 19th, former President Ford officially announced his intention to seek the Republican nomination.  Instead of using elector's names on the ballot, he decided to put his own name on the ballot, unlike in 1976.

The next week Reagan begins the cross country tour, and Ford's poll numbers immediately shoot up.  A Time nationwide poll on February 25th shows the following:

Ford: 42%
Crane: 27%
Anderson: 8%
Others: 4%
Undecided: 19%

After Crane won the uncontested Iowa caucses on February 17th (Ford was not yet a candidate, but attracted a significant write-in vote), the New Hampshire primary came up on February 26th.  Most expect Ford to win by a large margin.

As the results streamed, it appeared Crane made it a closer race than expected.  Also, a write-in campaign for Anderson (who had not officially declared an intention to run) was very strong.  By 10:00PM, pundits call the race for Ford:

Ford: 38%
Crane: 32%
Anderson (Write-in): 17%
Reagan (Write-in): 4%
Others: 9%

After New Hampshire are Massachusetts and Vermont on March 4th.  Ford easily wins these two other liberal states:

Massachusetts:
Ford: 51%
Anderson (Write-in): 21%
Crane: 20%
Others: 8%

Vermont:
Ford: 46%
Crane: 25%
Anderson (Write-in): 18%
Others: 11%

Seeing possible strength, Anderson officially announces he will seek the Republican nomination on March 5th.  Meanwhile, the South Carolina primary is on March 8th.  Going into the primary, Anderson is leading Crane 45-30.  However, Crane shocks the nation with a win on election day:

South Carolina:
Crane: 39%
Ford: 35%
Reagan (Write-in): 11%
Anderson: 10%
Others: 5%

Ford asks Reagan to tell his supporters to stop writing in his campaign, but Reagan convinces Ford not to, believing that even with his endorsement of Ford, most of his voters will switch to Crane, giving him a bigger win.

For all other people writing, the dates of the primaries is at the bottom of this page: http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/Rep1980.html

[True Democrat]

Does anyone mind if I continue to write this?

While Crane has the momentum, the write-in campaign for Reagan continues to grow; Reagan is silent on this issue.

After South Carolina, three more Southern states (Florida, Alabama, and Georgia) host primaries on March 18th.  While Florida goes for Ford by a very small margin, Crane cleans up in Alabama and Georgia.  Reagan actually gets second in Alabama.

Alabama:
Crane: 41%
Reagan (Write-in): 25%
Ford: 23%
Anderson: 4%
Others: 7%

Georgia:
Crane: 37%
Ford: 28%
Reagan (Write-in): 20%
Anderson: 6%
Others: 9%

Florida:
Ford: 32%
Crane: 31%
Reagan (Write-in): 19%
Anderson: 11%
Others: 7%

In somewhat of an upset, Ford beats Anderson in his home state of Illinois, but Anderson vows to fight on:

Illinois:
Ford: 40%
Anderson: 24%
Reagan (Write-in): 20%
Crane: 15%
Others: 1%

Ford gets an easy win in Connecticut on March 25th:
Ford: 52%
Reagan (Write-in): 18%
Crane: 16%
Anderson: 13%
Others: 1%

On April 1st, Kansas and Wisconsin produce surprising results:

Wisconsin:
Ford: 38%
Reagan (Write-in): 35%
Anderson: 17%
Crane: 8%
Others: 2%

Crane's numbers are plummetting with most of his supporters switching to Reagan.  While Reagan does better than expected in Wisconsin, Kansas is the biggest surprise of the night:

Kansas:
Reagan (Write-in): 35%
Ford: 31%
Crane: 17%
Anderson: 15%
Others: 2%

Reagan manages to actually win Kansas as a write-in candidate, a huge feat in a primary.  However, Reagan still has no comment on the race, though he has stopped campaigning for Ford.

With a win in Louisiana on April 5th, Reagan announces his intention to seek the Republican nomination.  Crane drops outs and endorses Reagan the next day.  Ford is shocked by the announcement by Reagan.  He wants to beat him even more now than he has double crossed him.  Ford is hoping to get Anderson to drop out, but he refuses.
 
Louisiana:
Reagan (Write-in): 30%
Ford: 29%
Crane: 22%
Anderson: 18%
Others: 1%

On April 22nd, Ford pulls off a crucial win in Pennsylvania:
Ford: 42%
Reagan: 35%
Anderson: 15%
Others: 8% (mostly leftover from Crane)

Although Reagan is supposed to have an easy time winning in Texas, Ford campaigns heavily there and nearly pulls an upset on May 3rd:
Reagan: 47%
Ford: 41%
Anderson: 9%
Others: 3%

Many moderate Republicans call on Anderson to drop out of the race to give Ford a chance to defeat Reagan, but Anderson still refuses.  He says if he doesn't have a good showing on the set of primaries on May 6th, he will drop out.

May 6th primaries:

DC:
Ford: 53%
Reagan: 38%
Anderson: 7%
Others: 2%

Indiana:
Ford: 50%
Reagan: 44%
Anderson: 5%
Others 1%

North Carolina:
Reagan: 48%
Ford: 44%
Anderson: 5%
Others: 3%

Tennessee:
Reagan: 58%
Ford: 37%
Anderson: 2%
Others: 3%

Anderson drops out, but unfortunately for Ford makes no endorsement.

With a surprise win in Nebraska on May 13th, Ford has nearly captured the nomination.  Many blame Reagan's bad performance on lack of campaigning and jumping in so late, which means he has no grassroots effort.

Nebraska:
Ford: 48%
Reagan: 48%
Others: 4%

Maryland:
Ford: 55%
Reagan: 40%
Others: 5%

With solid wins in Michigan and Oregon on May 20th, Ford wins the nomination and Reagan drops out (he takes his name off the ballots and tells his supporters not to write him in (though they do anyway in some states)).

Michigan:
Ford: 57%
Reagan: 40%
Others: 3%

Oregon:
Ford: 62%
Reagan: 35%
Others: 3%

Final map of the primaries (couldn't find the dates for the others states, so just assume the followed the same basic pattern):


Ford: 26 States
Reagan: 5 States
Crane: 4 States

[True Democrat]

In the Democratic primaries, President Carter faced a tough race from Ted Kennedy, but like Reagan, it was too little too late.  Kennedy entered the race too late to give Carter any real challenge.

At the Republican convention in July in Detroit, Ford must choose a Vice Presidential candidate.  He again asks Reagan, who still refuses.  Crane and Dole are both choices, but they don't bring much excitement to the ticket.  Most want him to pick a conservative, but Ford doesn't want the future of the Republican party to be conservative.  He wants to keep the moderatism that if left.  Although Ford first wants to pick someone young, he later decides against this.  Ford and the party leadership feels that voters want someone with years of experience to handle the current crisis that America faces.  Ford makes a call for former Senator Edward Brooke of Massachusetts.  Although Brooke was defeteated for reelection in 1978 by Representative Paul Tsongas, he is still heralded as a champion of the moderatism in the Republican party and is the first African-American senator elected since Reconstruction.  Brooke accepts Ford's offer for the VP slot.

At the Democratic convention in August in New York, Carter and Mondale are both renominated.

[True Democrat]

In the beginning polling of 1980, Carter is topping Ford by about 15%.  However, as the economy continue to fall apart and a failed rescue mission to Iran kills American soldiers.  Anderson initially floats the idea of running as an Independent, but Ford convinces him not to.  By election day, Ford is leading Carter by about 7%.  As results come in, the election plays out as predicted, though Ford does better than expected in the South due to getting 35% of the African-American vote (though Carter actually wins the white vote by a small margin).


Ford/Brooke: 54.27%, 424 electoral votes
Carter/Mondale: 44.50%, 114 electoral votes

Best States:

Ford:
1. Utah (65%)
2. Idaho (64%)
3. New Hampshire (62%)
4. Wyoming (61%)
5. Nebraska (61%)

Carter:
1. Georgia (63%)
2. South Carolina (55%)
3. Arkansas (55%)
4. West Virginia (53%)
5. Alabama (53%)

[CPT MikeyMike]

Nice work and I think your map hit the target perfectly.

Only thing is that, I think Ed Brooke was done after his nasty divorce and this losing his senate reelection in '78. I couldnt see Brooke as a VEEP. I could see a Howard Baker or a John Tower being better fit for Ford.

On another note: There was a trail poll done in mid to late '79 and it had Ford beating Reagan by nearly 15% in a two way race. I really think if Ford actually ran in '80, he would have kicked Reagan's and Carter's behinds!