New Russia-Ukraine tensions

[BigSerg]

It's awesome that no one here is talking about this


Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned Ukraine against being "pushed from the outside" to launch a hot phase of the Donbas conflict, claiming the move threatens to destroy the country.

"Those who will try to start a new war in Donbas will destroy Ukraine," Lavrov said in an interview with Channel One, Deutsche Welle reports.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1377633965767544836?s=20

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/politics/donbas-ukraine-could-be-destroyed-in-case-of-escalation-lavrov-claims-11374168.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/russia-and-ukraine-tensions-grow-again-on-the-border.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia/ukraine-leader-says-russia-creates-threatening-atmosphere-and-pressure-in-ceasefire-talks-idUSKBN2BO5VH

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1377658422594826240?s=20

https://twitter.com/donaldtusk/status/1377657618219610112?s=20

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1377688093537492992?s=20

[BigSerg]

There has not been such a serious crisis in the region since 2014
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1377701882244792320?s=20

[StateBoiler]

It's awesome that no one here is talking about this

It tells you a lot about the people that post here, doesn't it?

Some digging up, found this. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a document called Decree No. 117/2021 on March 24th. This is all Google translated:

In accordance with Article 107 of the Constitution of Ukraine, I decree:

1. To put into effect the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine of March 11, 2021 "On the Strategy of deoccupation and reintegration of the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol." (attached)

2. To approve the Strategy of deoccupation and reintegration of the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol (attached).

3. Control over the implementation of the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, enacted by this Decree, shall be vested in the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

4. This Decree shall enter into force on the day of its publication.

President of Ukraine V. ZELENSKY

March 24, 2021

My take on Crimea has always been "the land is Russian now because they're in control, if you want Crimea you have to go take it back". Seems it's what they're doing. If this becomes a thing, this has to have NATO backing, otherwise this is going to be a Ukrainian failure.

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't see them trying to forcibly take back Crimea any time soon.

[BigSerg]

I don't see them trying to forcibly take back Crimea any time soon.

The Ukrainian authorities really seem to believe in an imminent invasion.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1378023082623967233?s=20

[WMS]

Good to see Biden is willing to support Ukraine against Russian imperialism!

[PSOL]

This is just blatant posturing.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1378072761684398082?s=20

[PSOL]

Literally there’s clashes in Eastern Ukraine every day now.

Unless Russia conducts an offensive on the water reservoirs north of Crimea, this is a nothingburger.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Honestly, would Ukraine just be better off giving up their claims to the Donbass & Crimea; I realize it would set a terrible precedent to allow Russian aggression to succeed, but I just don't see any realistic way for Ukraine to successfully reintegrate these territories, certainly not at an acceptable cost. And from what I gather, the people in these regions largely want to align with Russia, any way. Perhaps the best solution is some sort of legally recognizable referendum monitored by the international community being held here.

[Omega21]

Honestly, would Ukraine just be better off giving up their claims to the Donbass & Crimea; I realize it would set a terrible precedent to allow Russian aggression to succeed, but I just don't see any realistic way for Ukraine to successfully reintegrate these territories, certainly not at an acceptable cost. And from what I gather, the people in these regions largely want to align with Russia, any way. Perhaps the best solution is some sort of legally recognizable referendum monitored by the international community being held here.

Sure, but it would also be political suicide for any Ukrainian politician attempting such a resolution.

[Zinneke]

Honestly, would Ukraine just be better off giving up their claims to the Donbass & Crimea; I realize it would set a terrible precedent to allow Russian aggression to succeed,

That should pretty much end the debate right there, given you know, the History behind it all.

but I just don't see any realistic way for Ukraine to successfully reintegrate these territories,

I do : regime change in Russia. Its not realistic in the very short term, but it is possible. Another realistic scenario : Russia's current elite realises it is going to be much more humiliated partnering with China that it would be with the West. In exchange for respecting democratic norms, it is guarenteed a certain stability.

certainly not at an acceptable cost. And from what I gather, the people in these regions largely want to align with Russia, any way.

Crimea, possibly. But then, the people in Crimea are colonists. That doesn't mean they are not entitled to self-determination. But so are Crimean Tatars. Should Crimean Tatars be subject to collective rights abuse because russophones were (allegedly) suffering collective rights abuse under a Ukrainian regime.

Donbass - very debatable. Pro-Russia doesn't mean wanting to be annexed to Russia. But Putin's conception of Russia is now clearly imperalist.

Perhaps the best solution is some sort of legally recognizable referendum monitored by the international community being held here.

If it were the best solution, why did Putin fast track the Crimean referendum. Why didn't let a campaign form up?


The best solution right now is to end NS pipeline, end our reliance on Russian gas, and cut the oligarchs legs off that control the Russian elite. The last obstacle would be the military-industrial complex there, but if they want to lose their marbles and carry on a hot war, it will be a much bigger humiliation that the end of the Cold War.

[Omega21]

The best solution right now is to end NS pipeline, end our reliance on Russian gas, and cut the oligarchs legs off that control the Russian elite. The last obstacle would be the military-industrial complex there, but if they want to lose their marbles and carry on a hot war, it will be a much bigger humiliation that the end of the Cold War.

Russian gas is 2x cheaper than American LNG (and not to mention much cleaner), so no, I want the money staying in the pockets of European citizens.

Once America stops buying Saudi oil and supplying them with weapons, we can talk about switching over to a more expensive Gas alternative just to "stick it to the Russians".

[Storr]

The best solution right now is to end NS pipeline, end our reliance on Russian gas, and cut the oligarchs legs off that control the Russian elite. The last obstacle would be the military-industrial complex there, but if they want to lose their marbles and carry on a hot war, it will be a much bigger humiliation that the end of the Cold War.

Russian gas is 2x cheaper than American LNG (and not to mention much cleaner), so no, I want the money staying in the pockets of European citizens.

Once America stops buying Saudi oil and supplying them with weapons, we can talk about switching over to a more expensive Gas alternative just to "stick it to the Russians".

Russian gas is 2x cheaper than American LNG until Russia raises your country's rates because you did something they didn't like.

[Omega21]

The best solution right now is to end NS pipeline, end our reliance on Russian gas, and cut the oligarchs legs off that control the Russian elite. The last obstacle would be the military-industrial complex there, but if they want to lose their marbles and carry on a hot war, it will be a much bigger humiliation that the end of the Cold War.

Russian gas is 2x cheaper than American LNG (and not to mention much cleaner), so no, I want the money staying in the pockets of European citizens.

Once America stops buying Saudi oil and supplying them with weapons, we can talk about switching over to a more expensive Gas alternative just to "stick it to the Russians".

Russian gas is 2x cheaper than American LNG until Russia raises your country's rates because you did something they didn't like.

Great, then you call up the US and the Tankers are full and at sea within a couple of weeks.

America sells LNG which is transported by ship, and there are already multiple docks capable of accepting LNG cargo across Europe, thus the preparations for a switch would be minimal.

And don't you worry, no one would pass up a customer so large such as the EU.

[Zinneke]

The best solution right now is to end NS pipeline, end our reliance on Russian gas, and cut the oligarchs legs off that control the Russian elite. The last obstacle would be the military-industrial complex there, but if they want to lose their marbles and carry on a hot war, it will be a much bigger humiliation that the end of the Cold War.

Russian gas is 2x cheaper than American LNG (and not to mention much cleaner), so no, I want the money staying in the pockets of European citizens.

Once America stops buying Saudi oil and supplying them with weapons, we can talk about switching over to a more expensive Gas alternative just to "stick it to the Russians".

lmfao at the idea that the Saudis are a geopolitical threat compared to Russia.
You care more about a small hit to an EU citizen's buying power than people's countries getting legit invaded not far from you. Just like every collaborator of dictators you just think its to everyone else until, woah suddenly, despite all the signs, it happens to affect you.


I guess its typical Austrian right-winger with putin's member in their mouths rhetoric. Its easy to opt out of NATO when you are surrounded by NATO members. At least the Swedes and Swiss use their soft power to actually defuse situations rather than just playing both sides acting smart.  

Have fun in Ibiza!

[Sirius_]

The best solution right now is to end NS pipeline, end our reliance on Russian gas, and cut the oligarchs legs off that control the Russian elite. The last obstacle would be the military-industrial complex there, but if they want to lose their marbles and carry on a hot war, it will be a much bigger humiliation that the end of the Cold War.

Russian gas is 2x cheaper than American LNG (and not to mention much cleaner), so no, I want the money staying in the pockets of European citizens.

Once America stops buying Saudi oil and supplying them with weapons, we can talk about switching over to a more expensive Gas alternative just to "stick it to the Russians".

And the supposed enlightened Europeans accuse Americans of being obsessed with cheap oil, yet you aren't willing to stand with fellow democracies against imperialism if it increases your gas price. So much for America being the most self interested assholes in the world. Ofc, that's going to be harder to sell people om without Trump. Imo Biden is proving himself to be a better leader than nearly all of Europe's.

[Omega21]

The best solution right now is to end NS pipeline, end our reliance on Russian gas, and cut the oligarchs legs off that control the Russian elite. The last obstacle would be the military-industrial complex there, but if they want to lose their marbles and carry on a hot war, it will be a much bigger humiliation that the end of the Cold War.

Russian gas is 2x cheaper than American LNG (and not to mention much cleaner), so no, I want the money staying in the pockets of European citizens.

Once America stops buying Saudi oil and supplying them with weapons, we can talk about switching over to a more expensive Gas alternative just to "stick it to the Russians".

lmfao at the idea that the Saudis are a geopolitical threat compared to Russia.
You care more about a small hit to an EU citizen's buying power than people's countries getting legit invaded not far from you. Just like every collaborator of dictators you just think its to everyone else until, woah suddenly, despite all the signs, it happens to affect you.


I guess its typical Austrian right-winger with putin's member in their mouths rhetoric. Its easy to opt out of NATO when you are surrounded by NATO members. At least the Swedes and Swiss use their soft power to actually defuse situations rather than just playing both sides acting smart.  

Have fun in Ibiza!

If you think Russia would at any point invade a Bloc with a population of 450 Million, you're extremely delusional.

Would be even less likely if we finally created an integrated EU military, so yeah, keep fantasizing about the "Red Invasion" or whatever.

Lastly, yes, I do support neutrality as long as our own (EU members) are not being threatened or attacked. Only exceptions would include things like actions against attempts of ethnic cleansing or actions against terror organizations.

No regime changes and no foreign interventions, barring the mentioned exceptions.

And the supposed enlightened Europeans accuse Americans of being obsessed with cheap oil, yet you aren't willing to stand with fellow democracies against imperialism if it increases your gas price. So much for America being the most self interested assholes in the world. Ofc, that's going to be harder to sell people om without Trump. Imo Biden is proving himself to be a better leader than nearly all of Europe's.

Either we are both self-interested a**holes, or we both give it up.

If you don't think it's hypocritical of the US to criticize and sanction Europe over NS 2 while still doing business with an equally terrible regime (that's actively bombing civilians with your own weapons in Yemen, no less), I don't know what to tell you.

I would honestly love it if we could both go the moral route, but sadly that isn't possible at the moment.

[Zinneke]

The best solution right now is to end NS pipeline, end our reliance on Russian gas, and cut the oligarchs legs off that control the Russian elite. The last obstacle would be the military-industrial complex there, but if they want to lose their marbles and carry on a hot war, it will be a much bigger humiliation that the end of the Cold War.

Russian gas is 2x cheaper than American LNG (and not to mention much cleaner), so no, I want the money staying in the pockets of European citizens.

Once America stops buying Saudi oil and supplying them with weapons, we can talk about switching over to a more expensive Gas alternative just to "stick it to the Russians".

lmfao at the idea that the Saudis are a geopolitical threat compared to Russia.
You care more about a small hit to an EU citizen's buying power than people's countries getting legit invaded not far from you. Just like every collaborator of dictators you just think its to everyone else until, woah suddenly, despite all the signs, it happens to affect you.


I guess its typical Austrian right-winger with putin's member in their mouths rhetoric. Its easy to opt out of NATO when you are surrounded by NATO members. At least the Swedes and Swiss use their soft power to actually defuse situations rather than just playing both sides acting smart.  

Have fun in Ibiza!

If you think Russia would at any point invade a Bloc with a population of 450 Million, you're extremely delusional.

I think if we continue to ignore their imperialism, we are just as delusional.

Lastly, yes, I do support neutrality as long as our own (EU members) are not being threatened or attacked. Only exceptions would include things like attempts at ethnic cleansing or actions against terror organizations.

Speaking of ethnic cleansing, what are your thoughts on Crimean Tatars?

No regime changes and no foreign interventions, barring the mentioned exceptions.

I actually agree with you on this. I also think NATO overstretched when the cold war was over, and should have always remained a defensive alliance, but contrary to you I don't think Russia is entitled to annex its neighbours because of some sphere of influence or whatever. I actually believe in self-determination. If Hungary wants to join China-Russia block, so be it. But we isolate them and they receive support from the two.

And the supposed enlightened Europeans accuse Americans of being obsessed with cheap oil, yet you aren't willing to stand with fellow democracies against imperialism if it increases your gas price. So much for America being the most self interested assholes in the world. Ofc, that's going to be harder to sell people om without Trump. Imo Biden is proving himself to be a better leader than nearly all of Europe's.

Either we are both self-interested a**holes, or we both give it up.

If you don't think it's hypocritical of the US to criticize and sanction Europe over NS 2 while still doing business with an equally terrible regime (that's actively bombing civilians with your own weapons in Yemen, no less), I don't know what to tell you.

I would honestly love it if we could both go the moral route, but sadly that isn't possible at the moment.

Again, where is Saudi Arabia a threat to our (the EU) borders the same way Russia is? I also agree that whats happening in Yemen is absolutely scandalous, but from a realist IR perspective, to equate our relationship with the Saudis to that of Russia is flawed. SA is 100% a destabilising regime but in its own region. Russia is a destabilising force in ours and projects its power globally. It has to be discouraged from further Crimea 2014 episodes.

[CumbrianLefty]

The best solution right now is to end NS pipeline, end our reliance on Russian gas, and cut the oligarchs legs off that control the Russian elite. The last obstacle would be the military-industrial complex there, but if they want to lose their marbles and carry on a hot war, it will be a much bigger humiliation that the end of the Cold War.

Russian gas is 2x cheaper than American LNG (and not to mention much cleaner), so no, I want the money staying in the pockets of European citizens.

Once America stops buying Saudi oil and supplying them with weapons, we can talk about switching over to a more expensive Gas alternative just to "stick it to the Russians".

lmfao at the idea that the Saudis are a geopolitical threat compared to Russia.
You care more about a small hit to an EU citizen's buying power than people's countries getting legit invaded not far from you. Just like every collaborator of dictators you just think its to everyone else until, woah suddenly, despite all the signs, it happens to affect you.


I guess its typical Austrian right-winger with putin's member in their mouths rhetoric. Its easy to opt out of NATO when you are surrounded by NATO members. At least the Swedes and Swiss use their soft power to actually defuse situations rather than just playing both sides acting smart.  

Have fun in Ibiza!

If you think Russia would at any point invade a Bloc with a population of 450 Million, you're extremely delusional.

I think if we continue to ignore their imperialism, we are just as delusional.

Lastly, yes, I do support neutrality as long as our own (EU members) are not being threatened or attacked. Only exceptions would include things like attempts at ethnic cleansing or actions against terror organizations.

Speaking of ethnic cleansing, what are your thoughts on Crimean Tatars?

No regime changes and no foreign interventions, barring the mentioned exceptions.

I actually agree with you on this. I also think NATO overstretched when the cold war was over, and should have always remained a defensive alliance, but contrary to you I don't think Russia is entitled to annex its neighbours because of some sphere of influence or whatever. I actually believe in self-determination. If Hungary wants to join China-Russia block, so be it. But we isolate them and they receive support from the two.

And the supposed enlightened Europeans accuse Americans of being obsessed with cheap oil, yet you aren't willing to stand with fellow democracies against imperialism if it increases your gas price. So much for America being the most self interested assholes in the world. Ofc, that's going to be harder to sell people om without Trump. Imo Biden is proving himself to be a better leader than nearly all of Europe's.

Either we are both self-interested a**holes, or we both give it up.

If you don't think it's hypocritical of the US to criticize and sanction Europe over NS 2 while still doing business with an equally terrible regime (that's actively bombing civilians with your own weapons in Yemen, no less), I don't know what to tell you.

I would honestly love it if we could both go the moral route, but sadly that isn't possible at the moment.

Again, where is Saudi Arabia a threat to our (the EU) borders the same way Russia is? I also agree that whats happening in Yemen is absolutely scandalous, but from a realist IR perspective, to equate our relationship with the Saudis to that of Russia is flawed. SA is 100% a destabilising regime but in its own region. Russia is a destabilising force in ours and projects its power globally. It has to be discouraged from further Crimea 2014 episodes.

Well, that and setting in motion a conveyor belt of Wahabi clerics to poison the minds of Muslims in the West (not that I disagree with your geopolitical assessment in a more general sense)

[BigSerg]

Casus belli??
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1378338781066059778?s=20

he Gleiwitz incident (German: Überfall auf den Sender Gleiwitz; Polish: Prowokacja gliwicka) was a false flag attack on the German radio station Sender Gleiwitz, staged by Nazi Germany on the night of 31 August 1939. Along with some two dozen similar incidents, the attack was manufactured by Germany as a casus belli to justify the invasion of Poland, which began the next morning.[1] The attackers posed as Polish nationals.

During his declaration of war, Hitler did not mention the Gleiwitz incident but grouped all provocations staged by the SS as an alleged "Polish assault" on Germany. The Gleiwitz incident is the best-known action of Operation Himmler, a series of special operations undertaken by the Schutzstaffel (SS) to serve German propaganda at the outbreak of war. The operation was intended to create the appearance of a Polish aggression against Germany in order to justify the invasion of Poland. Manufactured evidence for the Gleiwitz attack by the SS was provided by the German SS officer, Alfred Naujocks in 1945.

[WMS]

Somewhere in Saint Petersburg, Russian Bear takes a break from his job because he’s getting carpal tunnel syndrome vis-a-vis that picture of shirtless Putin.

Tankies prepare their justifications for Russian actions ahead of time in their honored copy and paste tradition.

Good luck, Ukraine.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Somewhere in Saint Petersburg, Russian Bear takes a break from his job because he’s getting carpal tunnel syndrome vis-a-vis that picture of shirtless Putin.

Tankies prepare their justifications for Russian actions ahead of time in their honored copy and paste tradition.

Good luck, Ukraine.

[WMS]

Somewhere in Saint Petersburg, Russian Bear takes a break from his job because he’s getting carpal tunnel syndrome vis-a-vis that picture of shirtless Putin.

Tankies prepare their justifications for Russian actions ahead of time in their honored copy and paste tradition.

Good luck, Ukraine.

Remember to hydrate and lubricate! Don’t want you to get hurt