Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Geoffrey Howe]

So about 1 million left in Peru? And 300,000 expat?
So if Fujimori can get net 100,000 from the expat, Castillo now needs net 150,000 from Peru. That means about 58% of the incoming Peruvian vote.

Is that right?

[Geoffrey Howe]

So about 1 million left in Peru? And 300,000 expat?
So if Fujimori can get net 100,000 from the expat, Castillo now needs net 150,000 from Peru. That means about 58% of the incoming Peruvian vote.

Is that right?

Something around there, yeah; Castillo getting ~60% of remaining Peru vote should get him just around to the 50.3 mark before the expat dump, which should be enough to survive a 100K hit (though not much higher; if it turns out to be something closer to 130K he will need to be at 50.4, which will take a good deal more at this stage).

Right, so to cancel out Peru (at 60% Castillo coming in) the expat vote needs 40% turnout and 70% Fujimori.

[Geoffrey Howe]

There are probably going to be just shy of 300,000 expat votes.
If 50.4% Castillo in Peru, that's a 140,000 vote lead.
That means Fujimori would need 75% of the expat vote.
If 50.2% Castillo in Peru, Fujimori needs 62% of the expat vote.
Most likely she gets 65-70% of the expat vote. So really down to the wire.

(Assuming 40% turnout.)

[Geoffrey Howe]

50.2% Castillo in Peru at 97.4% counted. Struggle to see Fujimori winning.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Yep, when stakes are very high, even if both candidates are hated, I suspect people are less likely to spoil their ballot. They will probably vote on financial interests.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Anyone have any insight into the outstanding vote? Still nothing from the US.

Peru 98% in and 50.235% to 49.765% for Castillo. Remaining areas Castillo but not monolithically from what I can tell. So probably 50.3% for Castillo.

That means Fujimori needs 70% of the expat vote on current turnout. Right now she is on 62% but that will increase when America comes in. So it really is down to the wire. My hunch is Castillo though.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Anyone know how San Isidro voted in the first round? (88% Fujimori in second...)

[Geoffrey Howe]

Anyone know how San Isidro voted in the first round? (88% Fujimori in second...)

De Soto 32.5%
Lopez Aliaga 29.3%
Mendoza 8.5%
Fujimori 7.7%

(A few candidates)

Castillo 1.0%

Wow. 8% to 88%

[Geoffrey Howe]

102k votes net for Fujimori for expats (66.6%). She would have needed 49.7% in Peru to win with that; only got 49.5%.