Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Sestak]

I think this should be underrepresenting rurals which report later, so - might actually be fine (or even good) for Castillo?

[Sestak]

Remaining departments with turnout significantly below (>10%) the national count:

AYACUCHO - 73.6% Counted, 82.25% Castillo - 17.75% Fujimori
CUSCO - 77.3% Counted, 82.1% Castillo, 17.9% Fujimori
LORETO - 55.2% Counted, 53.8% Fujimori, 46.2% Castillo
MOQUEGUA - 53.2% Counted, 76.4% Castillo, 23.6% Fujimori

ICA.

Given what is out in Loreto, the remainder of the department's vote should break pretty solidly for Castillo, yes?

[Sestak]

87.68% counted and Castillo jumps to 49.41

Wow.

[Sestak]

If 50.2 is the final mark domestically then Fujimori will probably take it. Castillo most likely wants to be at least at 50.4 or 5.

[Sestak]

Update: 89.5% in, 50.42-49.58


Around 0.08-0.09 gained from around 0.6%

Ica added around 5% from that update. Cusco around 1%.

[Sestak]

I think Castillo will be at 50.4 of the domestic vote when it's all counted. Then that may give us a 50-50 result when the foreign vote comes in. All in all, this is 2016 all over again and I'm just hoping Keiko loses by an even narrower margin.

I’m not sure Castillo will keep the same large growth trend until the very end. Most of what he needs is in Cusco and that’s already 81% in, even if he’ll probably still make some good gains. I think he will keep growing more modestly.

I am guessing he wins in Peru by a small margin but loses overall because of all the US vote still to come in.

The results that have come on over the last few updates have not been disproportionately from Cusco, though.

At the 86.5% update Cusco was at 77.3%. So nationally 4% of the vote was added, while from Cusco 4.5%. Given how far behind the national number Cusco is, that means it has actually been increasing as a share of the remaining vote out.

Ofc could still go either way. But the growth trends Castillo needs to hit now don't look as superhuman as they did a few updates back.

[Sestak]

Update: 90.04% in, 50.353-49.647

Castillo gains 0.067 from 0.54% of the vote.

No Cusco in this update.

[Sestak]

If the rate continues at 0.1/1% exactly from now on (which he's been beating for many updates straight now minus the one big Ica dump) then Castillo will be over 50.3 after all domestics are in.

Starting to think he's got a very good shot at taking this; might be a slight favorite (!)

[Sestak]

If the rate continues at 0.1/1% exactly from now on (which he's been beating for many updates straight now minus the one big Ica dump) then Castillo will be over 50.3 after all domestics are in.

Starting to think he's got a very good shot at taking this; might be a slight favorite (!)

I believe all depends on the turnout in the overseas vote. In the first round, it was just 22.8%. Now, with 11.1% counted is at 39.8%. There's still a lot of big places to count like the US, which could decrease the turnout rate, but if the overseas vote turnout holds on at 39%, Fujimori could win around 177,000 votes and Castillo around 83,000, again, if the projected 68-32% margin overseas holds up. This is just an "analysis" and could be wrong, but everything is very, very close.

I've been operating under the assumption that Fujimori will gain ~100K votes from expats after all of the domestic vote is in. If this is accurate, then the benchmark Castillo needs before that happens is around 50.3-50.4. Which I think he has a decently good shot at hitting.

Of course, the expat vote remaining could potentially be more than that - but also could be less.

[Sestak]

Update: 90.48% in, 50.321-49.679

Castillo gains 0.032 from 0.43.

Ica jumped 6%. Cusco by 0.3% and Lareto not at all.


Not a good update for Castillo but given what moved there, might be on track still.

[Sestak]

Update: 90.97% in, 50.271-49.729

Castillo gains 0.05 from 0.49.

Ica jumped again by around 7%. Cusco by around 1%. Lareto around 2%.

A little better for Castillo.

[Sestak]

Areas under 85% in:

Amazonas 84%, 64-36 Castillo
Ayacucho 77%, 82-18 Castillo
Cusco 83%, 83-17 Castillo
Huancavelia 83%, 86-14 Castillo
Loreto 57%, 54-46 Fujimori
Madre de Dios 84%, 69-31 Castillo
Moquegua 64%, 75-25 Castillo
Pasco 81%, 68-32 Castillo

Castillo needs to beat 60% overall in the remaining domestic vote (roughly what the 0.1/1 rule corresponds to).Big question imo is what the hell the remaining Loreto vote looks like. It's the biggest vote bank out so far. Exits had it going narrowly for Castillo and the remaining stuff there looks somewhat more pro-Castillo than what's already up? Still, very much remains to be seen.

[Sestak]

Update: 91.42% in, 50.222-49.778

Castillo gains 0.051 from 0.44

Ica added another 5% and is now fully up to the national mark in terms of reporting.

Nothing substantial from either Lareto or Cusco as far as I can tell.

[Sestak]

Update: 91.82 in, 50.203-49.797

Castillo gains 0.19 from 0.4. First update in many hours which we can straight up say is very bad for Castillo.

Still nothing from Cusco, nothing from Lareto from this.

[Sestak]

~4000 domestic stations left:

~1000 in Loreto (marginal, currently leaning to Fujimori)
~500 in Cusco (5-to-1 for Castillo)
~300 in Liura (3-to-2 for Fujimori)

~2200 elsewhere in Peru (mostly strongly Castillo areas)

~3000 "stations" (though idfk how that works) in the expat vote.

will be very close in the end

[Sestak]

Update: 92.12 in, 50.172-49.828

Castillo gains 0.031 from 0.3.

Nothing from Cusco. Nothing from Lareto.

[Sestak]

So about 1 million left in Peru? And 300,000 expat?
So if Fujimori can get net 100,000 from the expat, Castillo now needs net 150,000 from Peru. That means about 58% of the incoming Peruvian vote.

Is that right?

Something around there, yeah; Castillo getting ~60% of remaining Peru vote should get him just around to the 50.3 mark before the expat dump, which should be enough to survive a 100K hit (though not much higher; if it turns out to be something closer to 130K he will need to be at 50.4, which will take a good deal more at this stage).

[Sestak]

Update: 92.55 in, 50.127-49.873

Castillo gains 0.045 from 0.43.

Nothing from Cusco. Nothing from Loreto. Some movement in Piura on that one, actually.

Better update for Castillo for sure. We'll see if he has enough. A lot relies on how much expat is out. If Bosse is correct on the 330-350K number then there might not be enough for Castillo to survive a 70-30 margin out of it.


[I will note, by the way, that at this stage an update getting the 0.1/1% ratio for Castillo means he got at least ~60% from that update]

[Sestak]

Argentina with 11% of the vote counted is 57.6% Fujimori, which is not that high. I would say that Chile will have similar margins (or could be more Pro-Castillo), and the country has one of the largest Peruvian communities

Since you mentioned it, might as well list: The countries assigned more than 100 'stations' left to count are:

US 1,044
Spain 500
Argentina 427
Chile 392
Italy 320

All other countries combined count around 300. Again, I have no idea how proportional these 'stations' are, but if they are proportional then this is where 90% of the remaining expat vote is coming from.

[Sestak]

Update: 92.77 in, 50.094-49.906

Castillo gains 0.016 from 0.34.

1% from Cusco (roughly proportional), 1% from Liura (overrepresented), nothing from Loreto.

[Sestak]

^ (@kaoras) Seems pretty reasonable to me.

As long as the Expat net is only around 100K I think Castillo should be good. The issue is if it's higher - the "330K-350K votes are out" number is a good bit scarier for him if that turns out to be true.

[Sestak]

Update: 93.11 in, 50.078-49.922

Castillo gains 0.016 from 0.34.

Nothing from Cusco. Nothing from Piura, 5% from Loreto.


HOWEVER, we also have 5% from the EXPAT votes now in (so not really fair to judge on the same scale).

Seems to be a substantial chunk of the Argentina votes.

[Sestak]

It was a 2% from the Expat vote in the last update. The other 3% was in a previous one.

Ah, whoops. Guess I missed that.

[Sestak]

Update: 93.31 in, 50.050-49.950

Castillo gains 0.028 from 0.2.

No Cusco, No Loreto. 1% from the expats.


Castillo has this, I think.

[Sestak]

I'm back. First thing I check on is Loreto and it looks like things improved for Fujimori? And I agree with all the backhand math going on between the expats and the country.

I don't think Loreto's really improved for Fujimori? It's been hovering between 54-46 and 55-45 for a while.