Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[MaxQue]

Is there any possibility that this attack was a false flag?

I do think it was a far-left group with the obvious intention of stimulating Keiko’s election, because the only opportunity they have of being relevant is fighting against a Fujimori government. Fascists in power is always the strongest argument in favor of communism.

I mean, they killed a small group of people (how many, only 6?) to “send people the message of not voting Fujimori”. If you’re part of a terrorist group like Sendero Luminoso or any other, you must know that never intimidates people at all and it will actually embolden them to do the complete opposite of what you’re “ordering” them.

Kinda like Bush was the man of the dreams of Terrorists in the Middle East post 9/11 because he validated their arguments about the US. It’s old strategy.

Or Al-Qaida and Spain just before the 2003 elections (which didn't work because the right-wing government insisted on blaming the ETA/Basques despite the evidence and looking ridiculous doing so).

[VAR]

Keiko is focusing on kitchen table issues-

https://twitter.com/KeikoFujimori/status/1399005730326331394

[CumbrianLefty]

Is there any possibility that this attack was a false flag?

I do think it was a far-left group with the obvious intention of stimulating Keiko’s election, because the only opportunity they have of being relevant is fighting against a Fujimori government. Fascists in power is always the strongest argument in favor of communism.

I mean, they killed a small group of people (how many, only 6?) to “send people the message of not voting Fujimori”. If you’re part of a terrorist group like Sendero Luminoso or any other, you must know that never intimidates people at all and it will actually embolden them to do the complete opposite of what you’re “ordering” them.

Kinda like Bush was the man of the dreams of Terrorists in the Middle East post 9/11 because he validated their arguments about the US. It’s old strategy.

Or Al-Qaida and Spain just before the 2003 elections (which didn't work because the right-wing government insisted on blaming the ETA/Basques despite the evidence and looking ridiculous doing so).

2004

Still think that Aznar might have won that one had he levelled with the voters from the outset.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1400182044299247622?s=20

Highest recorded rate of participation in any poll so far. Keiko's best lead in any poll, but IDICE/La Razón is the pollster that has consistently had the best Fujimori numbers. 

[WMS]

This may be one of the worst electoral choices in recent memory.

[Red Velvet]

I do think Castillo could’ve won if Keiko didn’t start growing so fast just after the 1st round vote. I don’t think it will be that close now, maybe a 54/46 vs 55/45 divide favoring Keiko? idk

[PSOL]

I do think Castillo could’ve won if Keiko didn’t start growing so fast just after the 1st round vote. I don’t think it will be that close now, maybe a 54/46 vs 55/45 divide favoring Keiko? idk

There was literally nothing he could’ve done to won. Basic math and intuition was against his side in a still staunchly conservative country. Anyway

The New Peru movement expresses its deep concern regarding the refusal of the National Elections Jury to deliver the credentials requested by representatives of the European left, the Progressive International, and the Democratic Socialist of America to participate in Election Observers in the upcoming presidential elections of 6 of June.

[jaichind]

Despite my preferences I suspect Castillo will pull in out in a squeaker.

[Lumine]

Castillo hasn't done himself any favors with his amateurish campaign (though Keiko and Kenji are not far behind with a number of painfully cringe stunts), but people seem to be underestimating his chances. Not only are the polls difficult to trust with such a vast amount of undecided voters, it's also hard to tell what kind of voters will turn out to vote in the end, and it's really not like the prevailing political mood doesn't favor change as opposed to a perception of things as usual.

Personally, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Castillo does win and does so convincingly, just as I can also picture the narrow victory for Keiko many seem to be expecting.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I do think Castillo could’ve won if Keiko didn’t start growing so fast just after the 1st round vote. I don’t think it will be that close now, maybe a 54/46 vs 55/45 divide favoring Keiko? idk

There was literally nothing he could’ve done to won. Basic math and intuition was against his side in a still staunchly conservative country. Anyway

The New Peru movement expresses its deep concern regarding the refusal of the National Elections Jury to deliver the credentials requested by representatives of the European left, the Progressive International, and the Democratic Socialist of America to participate in Election Observers in the upcoming presidential elections of 6 of June.

The election literally has not happened. Calm down (although I do think she’ll win).

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Despite my preferences I suspect Castillo will pull in out in a squeaker.

Agreed! It's unclear to me why many on the forum are freaking out about polls showing a tight race when polls failed to measure Castillo's support in the 1st round. This is a classic problem, where remote, impoverished highland communities are hard to poll. Kind of similar to Bolivia in 2020!

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/status/1399716183277031424

lmao

I can confirm that a significant chunk of Lima is quite wealthy. In 2014 I visited much of the Peruvian country side with local Peruanos. Even rode the same busses and go to the same shops, eat at the same Chifa's they ate in. When we arrived in Lima the last part of my trip there it was stunning how developed Miraflores, San Isdrio, Surco, etc were compared to the rest of the country.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/status/1399716183277031424

lmao

I can confirm that a significant chunk of Lima is quite wealthy. In 2014 I visited much of the Peruvian country side with local Peruanos. Even rode the same busses and go to the same shops, eat at the same Chifa's they ate in. When we arrived in Lima the last part of my trip there it was stunning how developed Miraflores, San Isdrio, Surco, etc were compared to the rest of the country.

One gets the feeling she wanted something like this to happen, given Arequipa and the south in general is the exact opposite of a place where there would be numerous Fujimori voters. Provoking an incident gives he campaign more ammunition to paint things as worse than they truly are, and provides something for the loyal partisans to rally around. Reminds me of VOX tactics in the Catalan and Madrid elections.

[Coldstream]

I’m surprised people consider Fujimori to be the favourite, isn’t losing in the second round what she does?

[jamestroll]

I’m surprised people consider Fujimori to be the favourite, isn’t losing in the second round what she does?

Furimori is the prohibitive favoite in San Isdrio  and Miraflores, yes.

[buritobr]

The last poll, one week before the runoff, is showing a tie, considering the margin of error. These are good news for Keiko Fujimori, since she has a growing trend.
Even though, I though it would be very different soon after the results of the 1st round in April 11. I though Fujimori would win a landslide, and that Castillo would fail to reach 40% of the valid vote, because except Veronika, all the other losing candidates were conservative.

[sguberman]

How far left is Castillo exactly? Has he moderated recently and if so what has he moderated on?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Unofficial IEP poll is out, slight lead for Keiko. I’d rather be her than Castillo at the moment.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I think Castillo's numbers will drop as more people become aware of PL's more wacky positions, but he'll still win in the end 54%-46%

Nothing I've seen from the polls has really changed my view. I still think Castillo wins narrowly thanks to underpolling of his base.

Might be a little closer than 54-46 though

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Castillo wins, what does that say about Fujimori's presidential prospects?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I think Castillo's numbers will drop as more people become aware of PL's more wacky positions, but he'll still win in the end 54%-46%

Nothing I've seen from the polls has really changed my view. I still think Castillo wins narrowly thanks to underpolling of his base.

Might be a little closer than 54-46 though

I hope you’re right. I think Fujimori’s been on an upward trend for the past week and a half that’ll be difficult to stop.

If Castillo wins, what does that say about Fujimori's presidential prospects?

It means they’re over.

[buritobr]

How far left is Castillo exactly? Has he moderated recently and if so what has he moderated on?

He is very left-wing in economic issues. He is conservative in social issues: he is against legalization of abortion, gay marriage, legalization of cannabis and the teaching of LGBT issues at school.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It means they’re over.

One ought to hope so.
A Fujimori presidency would be a disaster for Peru.

[Astatine]

Too bad Tender's gone, I would love to hear abstrusely constructed analogies of Fujimori/Castillo to some random Austrian local politicians.

[Red Velvet]

Whatever happens I will worry for Peru. Castillo in power will only energize the right to high heavens while I also doubt he will get stuff done and the other one is Keiko Fujimori.

I’m feeling a close Keiko victory. I imagine she will get most voters that decide on the last minute. The growth trend is what matters the most to indicate where these last minute voters will go to.