Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[PSOL]

If we just look proportionally it looks like there are about ~75K net votes for Castillo left in Peru. Combine with an 88K current overall margin (and 100K in Peru itself) it looks pretty much over unless what remains is much worse for Castillo or smaller batches relative to their departments.

I think people are seriously underestimating how energized the Diaspora can be. If they are any indication that they’re similar to Cubans or the more politically “diverse” Iranian diaspora, they’re indeed hateful about any sort of “revolutionary” candidates who set out to take away their businesses and, in the case of the elite—their power and luxurious lifestyle of graft, embezzlement, and fraud leading to a significant dip in living standards. They still have the money and wills to p!$$ and burn the motherland out of spite by creating a whole bizarro reality where they become borderline genocidal. This is why Miami was a hotbed for Anti-Castro Guerrillas and why Shahis and the Mojahadeen entered an alliance for grift lobby work to try and get the US to bomb Iran. I can see the Peruvian diaspora being quite similar.
To be completely fair, there is a progressive element of lower middle class folks who are left leaning. I believe in NYC the DSA endorsed a single Peruvian mother for city council and some Peruvians have more nuanced takes on the craziness in the end of the previous millennium

Anyone know how San Isidro voted in the first round? (88% Fujimori in second...)

De Soto 32.5%
Lopez Aliaga 29.3%
Mendoza 8.5%
Fujimori 7.7%

(A few candidates)

Castillo 1.0%

Wow. 8% to 88%

I think Castillo exceeding the combined left vote in San Isidro tells something about this race; the man has crossover appeal to *some* anti-Fujimori liberals and rightists and that he can get things polarized enough to turn people out. I don’t think the same can be said of Mendoza, and especially not the neoliberals with strong ties to the media of the upper class.

This election is going to seriously blackpill the Peruvian electorate. People are going to be so demoralized, so frustrated, so angry...just as Marx said the purpose of participating in elections was? Outside of my regular musings, it seems that no matter the rising copper prices or end of the pandemic through vaccinations, it’s just going to put a lid and let out some air on a simmering, cracked lid in the long term.

[Mexican Wolf]

New update from ONPE:

https://twitter.com/ONPE_oficial/status/1402045919500046336

How are the latest expatriate ballots looking at the moment?

[Adam Griffin]

The remaining jurisdictions where 10% or more of voting stations have not reported.

Current margin in these 11 jurisdictions:

Castillo 60.60% (163773)
Fujimori 39.40% (106471)

(Keiko's winning the most northern 5, while Castillo is winning the remaining 6)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The remaining jurisdictions where 10% or more of voting stations have not reported:

So basically Castillo country plus part of Loreto? I wonder if Keiko has any juice left up north.

[Adam Griffin]

So basically Castillo country plus part of Loreto? I wonder if Keiko has any juice left up north.

Late edit, but the 11 remaining jurisdictions combined have their currently-counted votes as:

Castillo 60.60% (163773)
Fujimori 39.40% (106471)

[Oryxslayer]

So basically Castillo country plus part of Loreto? I wonder if Keiko has any juice left up north.

Late edit, but the 11 remaining jurisdictions combined have their currently-counted votes as:

Castillo 60.60% (163773)
Fujimori 39.40% (106471)

Castillo still hasn't passed a 100K lead, though I'm sure the last of the country will get him there. Which is in the ballpark of "Keiko could make it back, or she may not, it all depends on expat unknowns." Probably safe to say it will be narrower than 2016.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Does the international processed percentage count the percentage of stations that have finished counting or the percentage of votes?

Because while it says around 26% have been processed there are no votes processed from the US, Venezuela, Spain, Italy or Japan and only a tiny percentage from Chile. Those are the top countries of Peruvian expats and it's also pretty likely that Fujimori heavily overperforms in all of them.

It still seems unlikely that there will be enough to counteract Castillo's likely ~150k lead once the Peruvian count is finished but if that actually happened he'd almost certainly call the election illegitimate for having been determined by "treacherous expats". So maybe it's for the best if that doesn't happen.

The remaining jurisdictions where 10% or more of voting stations have not reported:

So basically Castillo country plus part of Loreto? I wonder if Keiko has any juice left up north.

The outstanding northern vote is mostly in the jungle so I'd be quite surprised if it wasn't disproportionately favourable to Castillo. Maybe a little less disproportionate than the mountain vote though, which could make the difference if there are a lot of outstanding international votes left.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Castillo now leads by 110,000 votes within Peru and over 90,000 overall.

[Oryxslayer]

Does the international processed percentage count the percentage of stations that have finished counting or the percentage of votes?

Everything is by counting station.

Also, if we do end up hitting Florida 2000/2018 style margins, there are about 1200 stations "sent to the JNE." At first glance these will likely be representative of the full count - given errors like observers and signatures are random and not correlated - but they could end up crucial in the event of a long count.

[Red Velvet]

Castillo now leads by 110,000 votes within Peru and over 90,000 overall.

There’s only 1,1% of the vote to be counted inside Peru though.

Predictions that he would climb to 50,3% on the overall count but then fall to a 50/50 divide becoming viable scenario. And Keiko could still overperform the foreign vote considering where it’s from.

If he really gets a 150K lead then he likely wins but things are murkier with only 125K. So far it’s 90K with only 1,1% of Peruvian vote to go (which means around 120K to be counted).

[EastwoodS]

So basically Castillo country plus part of Loreto? I wonder if Keiko has any juice left up north.

Late edit, but the 11 remaining jurisdictions combined have their currently-counted votes as:

Castillo 60.60% (163773)
Fujimori 39.40% (106471)

Castillo still hasn't passed a 100K lead, though I'm sure the last of the country will get him there. Which is in the ballpark of "Keiko could make it back, or she may not, it all depends on expat unknowns." Probably safe to say it will be narrower than 2016.

He’s need to surpass 100k in the homeland vote alone, he’s already done that.

[Oryxslayer]

Live analysis of Keiko's path to victory.

[Red Velvet]

Assuming if...

120K to be counted in Peru - Castillo maybe gets around a 30K lead out of that

That adds up to a 120K lead overall (considering now he has +90K). But then there is the foreign vote (probably around 240K based on current counted numbers and turnout?)

A 75% margin for Keiko is enough to close that 120K gap in order to go 50/50. And we know the Japanese, Miami margins will be something like 90% Keiko. It depends on how much they represent of the share. But Keiko has very decent chances.

[Lord Halifax]

If he really gets a 150K lead then he likely wins but things are murkier with only 125K. So far it’s 90K with only 1,1% of Peruvian vote to go (which means around 120K to be counted).

I thought that calculation was based on how much he needed to be ahead in the domestic vote to counter the expat vote? He's at 110k in Peru and will almost certainly reach 130k. It doesn't seem logical to mix the domestic vote and the already counted expat vote when making a prognosis.

[Adam Griffin]

If the outstanding domestic stations contain a proportionate number of voters compared to what has been counted, that'd suggest roughly 208k votes remaining. If the counted margins in the 11 jurisdictions that had more than 10% outstanding (60-40 Castillo as of my last update; pre-recent update) were reflective of what's to be counted, that'd net Castillo another 42k votes, giving him a Peru-based lead of 152k and a total lead of 133k votes. Keiko would 300k more expat votes to exist & need to win 72-73% of them to pull even.

[Red Velvet]

If the outstanding domestic stations contain a proportionate number of voters compared to what has been counted, that'd suggest roughly 208k votes remaining. If the counted margins in the 11 jurisdictions that had more than 10% outstanding (60-40 Castillo as of my last update; pre-recent update) were reflective of what's to be counted, that'd net Castillo another 42k votes, giving him a Peru-based lead of 152k and a total lead of 133k votes.

Any lead between 120K and 133K overall is very closeable depending of the margins of the rest of the foreign vote which COULD (not necessarily will) be > 75% in favor of Keiko.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If he really gets a 150K lead then he likely wins but things are murkier with only 125K. So far it’s 90K with only 1,1% of Peruvian vote to go (which means around 120K to be counted).

I thought that calculation was based on how much he needed to be ahead in the domestic vote to counter the expat vote? He's at 110k in Peru and will almost certainly reach 130k. It doesn't seem logical to mix the domestic vote and the already counted expat vote when making a prognosis.

That was what Lustration said. We’re all fumbling around in the dark here.

[TML]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

[Adam Griffin]

The real question is of course just how many expat votes remain.

Proportionally/based on stations reporting, that'd suggest around 330k expat votes total (85k of them have already been counted). That'd mean Keiko would need 80% of the remainder to have a shot.

If however there are 300k expat votes outstanding, then Keiko winning 72-73% is quite reachable.

[PSOL]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

[buritobr]

Latin Americans who live abroad are not an homogenous group. There are poor people who look for a better life, rich people who don't want to live surounded by poverty anymore, people who go to a developed country in order to study.
But most of the Latin Americans who live in the US usually vote for the right, no matter if he/she is a waiter or a businessperson.
In other countries, the vote is more split.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Latin Americans who live abroad are not an homogenous group. There are poor people who look for a better life, rich people who don't want to live surounded by poverty anymore, people who go to a developed country in order to study.
But most of the Latin Americans who live in the US usually vote for the right, no matter if he/she is a waiter or a businessperson.
In other countries, the vote is more split.

Not true in the case of Mexicans in the US, who have always voted for the left, but their status in the US is rather similar to Bolivians in Argentina.

[Red Velvet]

Latin Americans who live abroad are not an homogenous group. There are poor people who look for a better life, rich people who don't want to live surounded by poverty anymore, people who go to a developed country in order to study.
But most of the Latin Americans who live in the US usually vote for the right, no matter if he/she is a waiter or a businessperson.
In other countries, the vote is more split.

That’s the thing though, most of the foreign vote yet to be counted is from US, Japan and Southern Europe. All places I would expect Keiko to reach at least 75%, right? In Japan at least it will be probably closer to 90%

There’s some Chile in there as well but we don’t know how much of the total that is or how it will follow the ones already counted. Keiko maybe could just barely make it WITH all the foreign vote.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

[PSOL]

Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

Turnout is going to be sky high.

It’s over, Fujimori won. Now there’s nothing stopping me from resuming my Atlasia career instead of dissipating for a whole year.