Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1402075746663731205?s=20

In case you were wondering if US cultural influence is fading worldwide, I present you an example of our latest creation: the denial of electoral legitimacy. Can fit in any political arena, be it Israeli or South American.

[Oryxslayer]

Surely if Castillo is removed by Congress we'll see actual violent civil conflict?

The military will probably work hard on behalf of Keiko for the cover of a parliamentary coup, yes.

It probably wouldn't be Keiko at that point. A coup needs - parliamentary or not - to demonstrate that it can do more than just kick out the opposing other. There needs to be something that comes next, be it stability, recovery, investigations, reforms, accountability, and the like. A potential three-time loser with criminal allegations, jail time, and poor popular trust is not the right figurehead. Her brand was much better after 2016.

[Oryxslayer]

the actas to count are much more, also the actas sent to JNE are to count

more than what??

I guess he means the comparatively larger number of boxes sent to the JNE because of some administrative error. However these will likely be negligible partisan wise, cause errors should be random and not correlated to anything.

[Oryxslayer]

Cusco all in. Castillo lead of 80K. Only things left are JNEs, and 2 centers of 3K total in Loreto.

[Oryxslayer]

Ironic how the the South where Fujimori was defeated by large margins were the same places where the 1990 Fujimori the elder ran fairly strong in in the first round.

Were there barriers to indigenous Peruvians voting that have been removed between 1990 and today?

Fujimori at that time was also the 'outsider' promising radical change to fix the countries crisis. Brands evolve. 

[Oryxslayer]

Keiko Fujimori joined the group of leaders who didn't accept the defeat: Aécio Neves, Juan Guaidó, Jeanine Añez and Donald Trump

Don't forget AMLO (before 2018) and Netanyahu (Now).

[Oryxslayer]

I just read that apparently Castillo is now in hot water over his personal meetings with lobbyists at the worst possible time, given the impeachment bill.

[Oryxslayer]

And while they’re at it they should work on getting political parties that stand for something and aren’t just personal vehicles for people like César Acuña or Hernando de Soto (although say what you will about the sort of obnoxious Atlas Foundation right-libertarian nonsense that wants to privatize vaccine rollouts, at least it’s an ethos).

I mean the "caudillo party" culture kinda became engrained in the system ever since Fujimori Sr. rode it to ultimate power, and showed the next generation that this was what you should do. Fixing this would require another remaking of the political incentives and culture, which can only partially be done by laws - the rest must come by example. 

[Oryxslayer]

So this ends with him either backing down under increased pressure and then a likely resumption of the revolving presidential door, or new elections where the Fujimorista parties gain off opposition anger with everything from the past year - right? Wonderful times ahead.

[Oryxslayer]

If we're discussing democratic mandates, then it's worth recalling that Castillo polled 19% of the vote in the first round and won the runoff with a margin of 0.3pts. Enough to be the constitutionally and electorally legitimate President, certainly, but not enough to claim much of a mandate for radical political action let alone radical constitutional tinkering let alone an attempt to pull off an Autogolpe. I would suggest that the whole experience - and, frankly, the whole experience of Peruvian politics over the past few decades,* suggests that an Executive Presidency is not a good idea for the country.

_{*Every single elected President has ended up in prison or ought to have done: Garcia avoided it by topping himself like an Agatha Christie villain and Toledo has been trying to dodge it - but presumably will fail in the end as he lost that case last year - by hiding out in the United States.}

I think that some of the issue is their top-two system. Castillo got about 19% and Keiko Fujimori got about 13.5%, then Peruvians got to pick and, as they did in the previous two elections, Keiko lost by under 1%. I wonder how it would’ve gone if there was an instant runoff system instead.

In a way, Peru’s politics are starting to remind me of Israel’s in the sense that there’s constant turnover, splintering coalitions/parties, and bare majorities either for or against a polarizing figure (Keiko Fujimori vs Bibi Netanyahu).

The difference is that while Israeli politics is multi-polarized around clear sectarian poles, the South American runoff presidential system incentivizes every "flavor of the year" Caudillo politician with a following to try for the top office, leading to voter depolarization.

Which is a weird thing to say, but with large blocks of voters swapping allegiances every cycle, more politicians think they have an opening on their own, which fragments the legislature between parties of personality not programs. The low barrier of access to the runoff means the runoff election is often a choice of "who is worse" for a majority (not minority) of the electorate, so any president could only tentatively claim a mandate. When they do think said result incentivizes big policies it often leads to the increasingly common ~20% approval rating. Which then fosters disillusionment with the system, since only a small fraction of voters actually got an acceptable outcome, and the rest watch as backroom deals result in politicians you voted for approving policies they ran against.