Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Adam Griffin]

Current global map:

[Adam Griffin]

As predicted multiple days ago, we're on track for a 45k-vote Castillo win. Current margin is 51082: the remaining 45 JNEs appear to be on track to net Keiko another 2k votes, and Peru (67/69 stations remaining are in Lima; the other 2 in Keiko strongholds) will net her another 4k on top of that.

EXPAT JNES - 45
11 Argentina   
8 Canada   
4 Germany   
4 Spain      
4 Switzerland   
3 Austria   
2 UK         
2 Paraguay      
1 Italy         
1 Belgium      
1 Colombia      
1 Panama   
1 Greece   
1 Sweden   
1 Chile   

PERU JNES - 69
67 Lima
1 Piura
1 La Libertad

[Adam Griffin]

All of Spain, Argentina, Chile and Italy came in over the night: these were the most favorable bulk of JNEs remaining for Castillo. Keiko only gained 93 votes from these 17 JNEs (current margin is 50989), at roughly 51-49 Keiko. No new domestic JNEs have been counted since last update.

EXPAT JNES - 28
8 Canada
4 Germany
4 Switzerland
3 Austria
2 UK
2 Paraguay
1 Belgium
1 Colombia
1 Panama
1 Greece
1 Sweden

PERU JNES - 69
67 Lima
1 Piura
1 La Libertad

[Adam Griffin]

39 more JNEs have come in since last update: this netted Keiko a measly 669 votes, with the margin now at 49,420. Keiko's on track to net another 5,500 or so before this is over.

Code:

43 - PERU	(Keiko 78-22)
43 - LIMA	
	1	San Juan de Lurigancho	(Keiko 58-42)
	1	Subquillo				(Keiko 76-24)
	3	San Isidro				(Keiko 88-12)
	3	San Borja				(Keiko 84-16)
	1	San Luis				(Keiko 70-30)
	3	La Victoria				(Keiko 70-30)
	8	Lince					(Keiko 75-25)
	7	Pueblo Libre			(Keiko 77-23)
	5	Magdalena del Mar		(Keiko 79-21)
	11	San Miguel			(Keiko 79-21)

13 - EXPAT (Keiko 73-27)
8 - CANADA					(Keiko 81-19)
3 - AUSTRIA					(Keiko 53-47)
2 - UK						(Keiko 69-31)

[Adam Griffin]

Current margin is 44,816. Looks like Tender is holding up counting in Austria.

Give or take, Keiko will close the gap by another ~1,000 votes from what is left.

Code:

9 - ALL (Keiko 75-25)

         6 - PERU (ALL LIMA; Keiko 79-21)

         3 - EXPAT (ALL AUSTRIA; Keiko 53-47) 					

[Adam Griffin]

Current margin is 44,816. Looks like Tender is holding up counting in Austria.

Give or take, Keiko will close the gap by another ~1,000 votes from what is left.

Code:

9 - ALL (Keiko 75-25)

         6 - PERU (ALL LIMA; Keiko 79-21)

         3 - EXPAT (ALL AUSTRIA; Keiko 53-47) 					

I’m seeing 13 left on the ONPE site. Those 9 plus 2 more in the UK, 1 in Greece, and 1 in Sweden.

Those must have been re-added for some reason? Now there are 7 (3 in Austria, 1 in Sweden, 1 in Greece and 2 in UK).

LATE EDIT: plus the 6 in Lima, for a total of 13 still. Looks like the 4 in Sweden/Greece/UK magically reappeared over the night.

[Adam Griffin]

100% actas contabilizadas. Castillo 50.125% Keiko 49.875%. Final margin is 44,058 votes.