Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[CumbrianLefty]

Apparently a new poll (I know) has Castillo leading Fujimori by 61-38

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Apparently a new poll (I know) has Castillo leading Fujimori by 61-38

I’m seeing 41-26 from Datum, including undecideds. Same patterns as the Ipsos poll (Keiko leading in Lima and among classes A and B, Castillo everywhere else).

[Red Velvet]

Datum poll is 61% to Castillo and 39% to Fujimori. Considering the blank/null votes and undecided, it’s 41% Castillo, 26% Fujimori, 15% Blank or Null and 18% Undecided.

The weirdest thing is that I only expected Ecuador to go left in 2021, I never had even considered Peru could move (and so radically!) to the left when they had so many right-wing options being sold as the ones with chances. Not even Veronika Mendoza appeared in some top 6 polls and she was sold as the leading candidate of the left.

Maybe Peru isn’t as anti-leftist as media makes us think, it’s just that people are pushed to think Lima represents all the country whenever conversations about Peru happen.

Now the complete opposite of what everyone imagined is a very likely possibility, with Ecuador going right and Peru left. That’s crazy.

And there’s still the Chilean elections later this year, after all this I won’t even dare to make predictions.

[EvilSovereign]

Datum poll is 61% to Castillo and 39% to Fujimori. Considering the blank/null votes and undecided, it’s 41% Castillo, 26% Fujimori, 15% Blank or Null and 18% Undecided.

The weirdest thing is that I only expected Ecuador to go left in 2021, I never had even considered Peru could move (and so radically!) to the left when they had so many right-wing options being sold as the ones with chances. Not even Veronika Mendoza appeared in some top 6 polls and she was sold as the leading candidate of the left.

Maybe Peru isn’t as anti-leftist as media makes us think, it’s just that people are pushed to think Lima represents all the country whenever conversations about Peru happen.

Now the complete opposite of what everyone imagined is a very likely possibility, with Ecuador going right and Peru left. That’s crazy.

And there’s still the Chilean elections later this year, after all this I won’t even dare to make predictions.

I think the Peruvian left got very lucky ending up in a runoff against Fujimori, whose name is still very toxic and associated with corrupt, authoritarian neoliberalism. There is definitely an element of the media ignoring indigenous voices, but a lot of voters also indicate that they simply dislike both candidates.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Datum poll is 61% to Castillo and 39% to Fujimori. Considering the blank/null votes and undecided, it’s 41% Castillo, 26% Fujimori, 15% Blank or Null and 18% Undecided.

The weirdest thing is that I only expected Ecuador to go left in 2021, I never had even considered Peru could move (and so radically!) to the left when they had so many right-wing options being sold as the ones with chances. Not even Veronika Mendoza appeared in some top 6 polls and she was sold as the leading candidate of the left.

Maybe Peru isn’t as anti-leftist as media makes us think, it’s just that people are pushed to think Lima represents all the country whenever conversations about Peru happen.

Now the complete opposite of what everyone imagined is a very likely possibility, with Ecuador going right and Peru left. That’s crazy.

And there’s still the Chilean elections later this year, after all this I won’t even dare to make predictions.

Being in power is corrosive to your reputation, especially in corrupt countries and especially in corrupt countries where the internet is becoming widespread. Things go bad, the status quo is blamed and the most credibly anti-status quo forces are the most extreme and thus the least connected to current ongoing corruption. Bolsonaro wasn't clean of corruption initially because he was such an upstanding guy but because he was so extreme and fringey that nobody wanted their money connected to him. Similarly, Peru Libre's candidates aren't very corrupt (excluding the ones with actual power like Cerrón) because the guy who thinks North Korea is a model to emulate or the lady who speaks of having critical journalists imprisoned as some minor party nobody don't exactly look like great returns on investment.

Ecuador is incredibly illustrative: Lasso in 2021 beat Arauz in almost all of the provinces Correa won in 2006 and vice versa. It's like that old rotating statue meme.

I think Castillo's numbers will drop as more people become aware of PL's more wacky positions, but he'll still win in the end 54%-46%

For a somewhat bolder prediction I also think Petro will win in Colombia unless some dark horse comes out of nowhere.

[Red Velvet]

Datum poll is 61% to Castillo and 39% to Fujimori. Considering the blank/null votes and undecided, it’s 41% Castillo, 26% Fujimori, 15% Blank or Null and 18% Undecided.

The weirdest thing is that I only expected Ecuador to go left in 2021, I never had even considered Peru could move (and so radically!) to the left when they had so many right-wing options being sold as the ones with chances. Not even Veronika Mendoza appeared in some top 6 polls and she was sold as the leading candidate of the left.

Maybe Peru isn’t as anti-leftist as media makes us think, it’s just that people are pushed to think Lima represents all the country whenever conversations about Peru happen.

Now the complete opposite of what everyone imagined is a very likely possibility, with Ecuador going right and Peru left. That’s crazy.

And there’s still the Chilean elections later this year, after all this I won’t even dare to make predictions.

Being in power is corrosive to your reputation, especially in corrupt countries and especially in corrupt countries where the internet is becoming widespread. Things go bad, the status quo is blamed and the most credibly anti-status quo forces are the most extreme and thus the least connected to current ongoing corruption. Bolsonaro wasn't clean of corruption initially because he was such an upstanding guy but because he was so extreme and fringey that nobody wanted their money connected to him. Similarly, Peru Libre's candidates aren't very corrupt (excluding the ones with actual power like Cerrón) because the guy who thinks North Korea is a model to emulate or the lady who speaks of having critical journalists imprisoned as some minor party nobody don't exactly look like great returns on investment.

Ecuador is incredibly illustrative: Lasso in 2021 beat Arauz in almost all of the provinces Correa won in 2006 and vice versa. It's like that old rotating statue meme.

I think Castillo's numbers will drop as more people become aware of PL's more wacky positions, but he'll still win in the end 54%-46%

For a somewhat bolder prediction I also think Petro will win in Colombia unless some dark horse comes out of nowhere.

Pretty much why anticorruption as a main political rhetoric is very effective as a destructive weapon. It blames only one person or a specific group for broad structural problems and always favors the outsiders in the extremes, be them left or right.

Besides, it never addresses the root of the problem and the extremes are eventually forced to be part of the system once they get into power and have to stop riding on the coast of such easy penal populism and moral personalism.

Every time it was used here in Brazil by a candidate as their single BIGGEST appealing narrative, it has always led to disaster:

- Jânio Quadros in 1960 —> Military dictatorship in 1964 that lasted 21 years
- Collor in 1989 —> Renounced in 1992 after people’s bank savings were confiscated
- Bolsonaro in 2018 —> Destruction still in development

Funny how it’s always after the cursed 29 years gap that these anticorruption populists appear. It’s the time it takes for a new generation to emerge and not have any idea how these cheap discourses always work and for older generations to forget.

At least for now it seems that Bolsonaro will only last one year more, who knows what terrible and even worse stuff could be reserved for 2047.

Politicians need to have at least have a project if they want to lead the country, regardless of ideology. All these just had the anticorruption populism: Say tons of sh**t about how the establishment is so corrupt and then get elected without doing anything or even having the intention to do so.

[Donerail]

Ecuador is incredibly illustrative: Lasso in 2021 beat Arauz in almost all of the provinces Correa won in 2006 and vice versa. It's like that old rotating statue meme.

Perhaps no coincidence that a centerpiece of Lasso's campaign was his promise to make a statue rotate.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New IEP poll to be out tomorrow, which will apparently have another huge lead for Castillo.

[kaoras]

Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

Do you mean liberalism and economic freedom? Because Peru is the ultimate stereotype of laissez-faire economics, deregulation and basically a free-for-all for business. Peruvian state is really small.

In other news, Castillo apparently is moderating drastically his rhetoric so there's a chance he will be another Humala. 

[CumbrianLefty]

Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

Do you mean liberalism and economic freedom? Because Peru is the ultimate stereotype of laissez-faire economics, deregulation and basically a free-for-all for business. Peruvian state is really small.

In other news, Castillo apparently is moderating drastically his rhetoric so there's a chance he will be another Humala. 

Not a surprise, and suggests that they really do want to win.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

Do you mean liberalism and economic freedom? Because Peru is the ultimate stereotype of laissez-faire economics, deregulation and basically a free-for-all for business. Peruvian state is really small.

In other news, Castillo apparently is moderating drastically his rhetoric so there's a chance he will be another Humala. 

“Who’s Vladimir Cerrón? Never heard of him.”

Btw, the IEP poll has Castillo at 42% and Keiko at 22%. As was let on, it’s the largest margin out of the second round polls so far.

[Red Velvet]

Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

Do you mean liberalism and economic freedom? Because Peru is the ultimate stereotype of laissez-faire economics, deregulation and basically a free-for-all for business. Peruvian state is really small.

Yup, there’s a difference between pacific alliance of Colombia-Peru-Chile (+Ecuador as outsider) and the Atlantic one of Brazil-Argentina-Uruguay-Paraguay (+Bolivia +Venezuela as outsiders).

The international right always wanted to treat the first as a big model of progress as if they were a paradise but they have similar problems as everyone else. Biggest difference is that the poor are much angrier and more inclined to revolution, it seems with Chile and now Castillo’s Peru. These are the two countries where to me the left appeared to surge out of nowhere, even it wasn’t really out of nowhere.

Colombia is different because it appears to work on it’s own different way. They will never change too radically in current circumstances and geopolitics even if recent developments are similar to the rest of South America.

[Red Velvet]

Weird how polls show similar % to Castillo but the numbers of Keiko vary a lot depending of the polling institution.

Castillo
41,5% IEP
41% Datum
42% Ipsos

Keiko
21,5% IEP
26% Datum
31% Ipsos

IEP has Castillo +20
Datum Castillo +15
Ipsos Castillo +11

Disconsidering null/blanks/undecideds the margins become even more volatile because of this uncertainty of Keiko numbers:

IEP is Castillo 66% vs Keiko 34%
Datum Castillo 61% vs Keiko 39%
Ipsos Castillo 58% vs Keiko 42%

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

Do you mean liberalism and economic freedom? Because Peru is the ultimate stereotype of laissez-faire economics, deregulation and basically a free-for-all for business. Peruvian state is really small.

In other news, Castillo apparently is moderating drastically his rhetoric so there's a chance he will be another Humala. 

Grading on a Latin American curve, sure. By modern international standards, not exactly. By my ideal standards, not even close.

Market systems have to start from the bottom up, whereas the usual neoliberal tack in Latin America has been to appeal to the ruling elite to impose a market system from the top. This might help with capitalizing companies and attracting international loans to capital cities but that's all irrelevant to some guy living on a mountain that's about to be evicted so the government can collect fat taxes from a new mine.

De Soto's idea of formalizing property for the poor was a great one even if he's a bit of a lizard person. It would also help reduce regime uncertainty; knowing that the government will seize land for you or divert huge sums your way for contracts is great for a corrupt international corporation but not so good for the small and medium sized companies that make the backbone of a healthy economy and won't get the same favoritism. A consistent and fair system means people can actually invest and expand in their own communities without worrying about it being stolen by the local authorities or criminals (but I repeat myself). The direct size of the state isn't as relevant when there are death squads, guerrillas and paramilitaries (the latter less so than in Colombia) that go out kidnapping people, stealing stuff and blowing up infrastructure.

Ending the War on Drugs would also be a great boon, albeit again less than in Colombia or Bolivia. Formalizing valuable former black market sectors of the economy like coca growing would be hugely beneficial to farmers and would undercut criminal wealth.

[Red Velvet]

Also, RV's comparison is apt. This Quechua girl mocking Limans wouldn't be out of place at a Trump rally owning libs. When people feel their interests aren't represented they'll go with whoever at least gives lip service, and after a while just knowing that those who ignored and insulted them are afraid is all they need. Maoism might be an insane ideology but when they're the only ones promising a better life in any given mountain village I have a hard time blaming the peasants for jumping on board. It's unfortunate that the policies that would actually help such people are generally tied in with corrupt elites.

Do you mean liberalism and economic freedom? Because Peru is the ultimate stereotype of laissez-faire economics, deregulation and basically a free-for-all for business. Peruvian state is really small.

In other news, Castillo apparently is moderating drastically his rhetoric so there's a chance he will be another Humala.  

Grading on a Latin American curve, sure. By modern international standards, not exactly. By my ideal standards, not even close.

Market systems have to start from the bottom up, whereas the usual neoliberal tack in Latin America has been to appeal to the ruling elite to impose a market system from the top. This might help with capitalizing companies and attracting international loans to capital cities but that's all irrelevant to some guy living on a mountain that's about to be evicted so the government can collect fat taxes from a new mine.

De Soto's idea of formalizing property for the poor was a great one even if he's a bit of a lizard person. It would also help reduce regime uncertainty; knowing that the government will seize land for you or divert huge sums your way for contracts is great for a corrupt international corporation but not so good for the small and medium sized companies that make the backbone of a healthy economy and won't get the same favoritism. A consistent and fair system means people can actually invest and expand in their own communities without worrying about it being stolen by the local authorities or criminals (but I repeat myself). The direct size of the state isn't as relevant when there are death squads, guerrillas and paramilitaries (the latter less so than in Colombia) that go out kidnapping people, stealing stuff and blowing up infrastructure.

Ending the War on Drugs would also be a great boon, albeit again less than in Colombia or Bolivia. Formalizing valuable former black market sectors of the economy like coca growing would be hugely beneficial to farmers and would undercut criminal wealth.

Even if we basically mostly disagree ideology-wise, I understand your positions.

IMO To convince lower income people of such policies you defend is the biggest obstacle and should also be the biggest goal. Precisely a big obstacle because it’s related to a rhetoric mostly adopted by the elites to advance their interests and ignore everyone else, as if they were not members of the same system.

Latin American elites are even greedier than regular ones you find in the world and the poorer sectors of society tend to be ignored more strongly, they’re practically completely invisible. They don’t participate on the system because it’s not lucrative for private sector to reach out to them, while public sector depends on the government goodwill and most regular leaders don’t like to invest much in remote areas, focusing in the big urban center infrastructure (or maybe not even in those!).

That’s where big government promises and communism become appealing to these groups. Someone finally appears talking to these people and actually addresses their everyday material concerns. They have children to feed and can’t afford food, maybe their houses are falling apart, there aren’t enough doctors and teachers in the local hospital/school, that kind of thing.

So when someone makes these people the protagonists of their campaign and promises to use their power to solve it all with practical quick solutions (Hire more teachers, build more hospitals, create more social programs), people adore because they want solutions for the present, not long-term future. They need to survive now in their perspective.

Not to mention that besides the class resentment, these people are looked down by big urban areas people who talk about them as if they were all uneducated dumb trash. There were Keiko supporters in Lima angry after 1st round results saying stuff like “Alberto’s mistake was not sterilizing enough of these Indigenous people”.

If a free-market libertarian really believes their ideas are the best for the poor and ever wants to appeal to these people (and not only big city wealthy elites) it has to necessarily break the hierarchical system and put low income people interests as priorities.

In practice, not just lip-service, otherwise they will never gain electoral trust. The left isn’t perfect at solving these people’s problems but it’s the better option that appeared so far. It gained their trust with (small, true) immediate solutions.

Problem is, the elites will never allow that to happen. Even with those “radical leftists” that eventually get elected, they usually are forced to move way to the center once they get in power in order to politically survive and stay in power. If anyone else from any other ideological group committed to do the same, it would be pushed to “moderation” or even sabotaged by them in the same way. The system is rigged.

That’s because the elites don’t simply just want good quality of life for themselves. They want status, they want and need others to be miserable and condemned to poverty because it means they will always have options to exploit and that “competition” will always be suppressed.

In the moment more social inclusion happens and the poor start to participate more in the system, these people get angry. They will complain that their airports are starting to look like bus stations; that their shopping malls are becoming less well-frequented; that the son of their maid is frequenting the same college as the family daughter.

That is stuff I already heard people say and they were upper middle class, they weren’t even part of the rich, the real elites. The real rich don’t even have to interact with these people, as they have private jets and helicopters, stuff like that. But because everyone cares so much about status, upper middle class sees themselves as rich, as part of the elites. Lower middle class sees themselves as average because they’re “better” than people living in poverty. And for those in the absolute bottom, they just want to survive every new day.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New Datum poll out, first pollster to get a second poll for the runoff.

Castillo 44 (+3 from last poll)
Fujimori 34 (+8)

In other news: Fujimori agreed to a debate in Castillo’s hometown of Chota this Sunday (in addition to the two official JNE debates), but Castillo has apparently suspended campaigning temporarily due to a medical emergency.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New Datum poll out, first pollster to get a second poll for the runoff.

Castillo 44 (+3 from last poll)
Fujimori 34 (+8)

In other news: Fujimori agreed to a debate in Castillo’s hometown of Chota this Sunday (in addition to the two official JNE debates), but Castillo has apparently suspended campaigning temporarily due to a medical emergency.

Castillo: 56% (-5)
Fujimori: 44% (+5)

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

snip

It's definitely an uphill battle, but I think we're just starting to see a new model for electoral success start to emerge. Namely, libertarian populism. Radical libertarianism is anti-political anyway, and abolishing your own job or weakening your own power isn't appealing to the typical crooks that litter the political parties of corrupt countries. Radicalism also serves two useful purposes: it keeps out odious elites and it attracts the sort of true believers who can punch far above their weight, what Lenin called "vanguardists". When someone is willing to put their body or even life on the line it can inspire otherwise jaded people. No regular liberal would risk arrest to give the finger to the government like Daniel Fraga did and no corrupt politician would get tortured by the police and respond by redoubling his efforts like the kids in Argentina have.

The most pure example of this is Milei in Argentina who hasn't compromised his purity in the slightest and seems to be in a position to do well, but of course there's still plenty of time until that election and the polls could be garbage. So in terms of proven electoral success the best example I can think of (who I'm sure you've heard of) is Mamãefalei. Running on a mostly solid libertarian platform and with no real institutional help he almost managed to pass Bolsonaro's lackey with almost 10% of the vote and a lower middle class base of support. Once Bolsonaro is gone a sizable portion of his support (plus some of the other right/centre-right parties) will likely be within reach of anti-systemic libertarians too, and you don't need much to start getting such candidates within spitting distance of making the runoffs of important elections like the SP governor/mayor.

The biggest disadvantage (that you indirectly brought up) is that the benefits of libertarianism aren't immediate, but the upside is that it works just as well regardless of scale. So it isn't necessary that libertarians win national elections outright, decentralization combined with solid candidates could give enough influence to implement good policies at the local level. Ideally such a place would be a kind of reverse Venezuela that would provide a model that would make libertarian ideas more palatable even to non-radicals. One of the biggest obstacles is the idea that being wealthy is the result of Europeans just being inherently superior and Latin Americans are just doomed to corruption and poverty forever. Once a counterexample exists then even mainstream parties will have to consider alternatives besides the status quo, Marxism or mindlessly copying whatever the Europeans/Americans are doing.

New Datum poll out, first pollster to get a second poll for the runoff.

Castillo 44 (+3 from last poll)
Fujimori 34 (+8)

In other news: Fujimori agreed to a debate in Castillo’s hometown of Chota this Sunday (in addition to the two official JNE debates), but Castillo has apparently suspended campaigning temporarily due to a medical emergency.

Apparently on the one hand a lot of previous ballot spoilers have moved towards Fujimori because of all the crazy things they've heard about PL and on the other Castillo's leaners are a bit less solid because he's been recently swinging all over the place ideologically like a weathervane. We're still on track for a narrow Castillo win though.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New Datum poll out, first pollster to get a second poll for the runoff.

Castillo 44 (+3 from last poll)
Fujimori 34 (+8)

In other news: Fujimori agreed to a debate in Castillo’s hometown of Chota this Sunday (in addition to the two official JNE debates), but Castillo has apparently suspended campaigning temporarily due to a medical emergency.

Update: Castillo’s campaign says he’ll be released from the hospital soon and will participate in the debate. He was having respiratory symptoms (and has been having constant, large campaign rallies outside), but it turned out to just be a throat infection.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

New Datum poll out, first pollster to get a second poll for the runoff.

Castillo 44 (+3 from last poll)
Fujimori 34 (+8)

In other news: Fujimori agreed to a debate in Castillo’s hometown of Chota this Sunday (in addition to the two official JNE debates), but Castillo has apparently suspended campaigning temporarily due to a medical emergency.

Update: Castillo’s campaign says he’ll be released from the hospital soon and will participate in the debate. He was having respiratory symptoms (and has been having constant, large campaign rallies outside), but it turned out to just be a throat infection.

From Idice, the gap apparently keeps narrowing:

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1388162981712773126

[PSOL]

Only the Peruvian Left and unspooked Indigenous people would vote for Castillo, and that’s not enough to win this election. We’re seeing Keiko Fujimori consolidate the Urban non-indigenous, non-Left vote and the conservative vote in rural areas, i.e. the majority of the population.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Only the Peruvian Left and unspooked Indigenous people would vote for Castillo, and that’s not enough to win this election. We’re seeing Keiko Fujimori consolidate the Urban non-indigenous, non-Left vote and the conservative vote in rural areas, i.e. the majority of the population.

Fujimoro has her own baggage, I wouldn't be suprised if around 10% of people leave a blank vote or turnout hits record lows. I still think Castillo is favoured, Fujimors shawdow looms long.

[PSOL]

Only the Peruvian Left and unspooked Indigenous people would vote for Castillo, and that’s not enough to win this election. We’re seeing Keiko Fujimori consolidate the Urban non-indigenous, non-Left vote and the conservative vote in rural areas, i.e. the majority of the population.

Fujimoro has her own baggage, I wouldn't be suprised if around 10% of people leave a blank vote or turnout hits record lows. I still think Castillo is favoured, Fujimors shawdow looms long.

The bolded does not contradict what I said.

Castillo is nominally an anti-finance-and-extraction-management candidate who’s indigenous; that also carries baggage.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

New Datum poll out, first pollster to get a second poll for the runoff.

Castillo 44 (+3 from last poll)
Fujimori 34 (+8)

In other news: Fujimori agreed to a debate in Castillo’s hometown of Chota this Sunday (in addition to the two official JNE debates), but Castillo has apparently suspended campaigning temporarily due to a medical emergency.

It’s actually today (I forgot how to count, and then forgot that I’d said Sunday)! At 8 PM. No agreement on future debates (presidential, vice presidential, or between advisors).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Didn’t watch the debate because I’m far too busy with finals. Seems like a wash but I don’t know a damn thing. New Ipsos poll out:

Castillo: 43 (+1)
Fujimori: 34 (+3)