Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/09/28/vulnerable-house-democrats-say-it-really-better-be-infrastructure-week/

Vulnerable House Democrats say it really better be infrastructure week

"House Democrats and their aides representing seats Republicans are targeting in next year's midterms warned the deal must come to the floor and pass on Thursday, whether or not a vote occurs on the $3.5 trillion budget package by then (a very tall order)."

[Ferguson97]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/09/28/vulnerable-house-democrats-say-it-really-better-be-infrastructure-week/

Vulnerable House Democrats say it really better be infrastructure week

"House Democrats and their aides representing seats Republicans are targeting in next year's midterms warned the deal must come to the floor and pass on Thursday, whether or not a vote occurs on the $3.5 trillion budget package by then (a very tall order)."

“whether or not”

These moderate clowns have no intention to vote for the $3.5T package.

Don’t yield.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know I'd love to be proven wrong, but smug dismissal and tautological invocations of Pelosi's supposed infallibility aren't exactly convincing counterarguments.

I am not pretending I know what will happen, and it’s hardly smug to say to stop making really outlandish claims.

There's nothing outlandish there. If the House votes tomorrow without a reconciliation deal, it's over. Plain as day.

I hope that's not the case, maybe the negotiations on reconciliation are further along and something will come up today to clear everything up. But it's getting harder and harder to believe.

[KaiserDave]

You know I'd love to be proven wrong, but smug dismissal and tautological invocations of Pelosi's supposed infallibility aren't exactly convincing counterarguments.

I am not pretending I know what will happen, and it’s hardly smug to say to stop making really outlandish claims.

There's nothing outlandish there. If the House votes tomorrow without a reconciliation deal, it's over. Plain as day.

I hope that's not the case, maybe the negotiations on reconciliation are further along and something will come up today to clear everything up. But it's getting harder and harder to believe.

Yeah that's outlandish.  It's not "over."

[jaichind]

Of course as a MAGA anti-Dem partisan I want everything to not pass but putting that aside this situation is very interesting from a game theory point of view.  It seems to me the Dem moderates have a clear negations advantage over the Dem progressives.  This is because Biden has not come out strongly and publicall7y saying that unless both the bipartisan and reconciliation bill must pass for his agenda to be successful.   Without that Pelosi and Schumer might have no choice but to try to get something passed and could always borrow GOP votes to overcome Dem progressive defections.  The Dem progressives do not have this option and puts them at a disadvantage.

The game theory calculation from the GOP point of view is also interesting.  I am sure most of them, like me, just want everything to fail and then wait for the 2022 anti-Dem wave.  But lending support to the Dem moderates to get the bipartisan bill passed might increase the divide between Dem moderates and Dem progressives.  There is an argument that it is easier to defeated a divided Dem party that got something done versus a united Dem party that go nothing done in 2022.  Not clear which is better for the GOP but some in the GOP might take the former option and have the talking point of "hey, we did help get something passed."

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know I'd love to be proven wrong, but smug dismissal and tautological invocations of Pelosi's supposed infallibility aren't exactly convincing counterarguments.

I am not pretending I know what will happen, and it’s hardly smug to say to stop making really outlandish claims.

There's nothing outlandish there. If the House votes tomorrow without a reconciliation deal, it's over. Plain as day.

I hope that's not the case, maybe the negotiations on reconciliation are further along and something will come up today to clear everything up. But it's getting harder and harder to believe.

Yeah that's outlandish.  It's not "over."

You think the centrist Dems will agree to anything after they get the only thing they ever cared about? Now that's outlandish.

[KaiserDave]

You know I'd love to be proven wrong, but smug dismissal and tautological invocations of Pelosi's supposed infallibility aren't exactly convincing counterarguments.

I am not pretending I know what will happen, and it’s hardly smug to say to stop making really outlandish claims.

There's nothing outlandish there. If the House votes tomorrow without a reconciliation deal, it's over. Plain as day.

I hope that's not the case, maybe the negotiations on reconciliation are further along and something will come up today to clear everything up. But it's getting harder and harder to believe.

Yeah that's outlandish.  It's not "over."

You think the centrist Dems will agree to anything after they get the only thing they ever cared about? Now that's outlandish.

I'm don't claim to know what is going on behind the scenes, and I will draw my conclusions once events out of my control have transpired.

[wbrocks67]

What doesn't make sense to me for the 'moderates' being weary of the $3.5T package is that the package is POPULAR! And it actually includes a ton of great things for all types of districts. Hell, the $3.5T package is huge for places even like West Virginia.

I'm seriously confused at how moderates are somehow worried about this. People do not care about price tags anymore if the things in the bill are going to help them, and many of the things inside the $3.5T are going to help.

Both bills are popular. This isn't a scenario like we've seen many times in the past decade of these bills getting pushed through because they're unpopular. People actually LIKE them, so to see Dems still handwringing about either is absolutely ludicrous

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know I'd love to be proven wrong, but smug dismissal and tautological invocations of Pelosi's supposed infallibility aren't exactly convincing counterarguments.

I am not pretending I know what will happen, and it’s hardly smug to say to stop making really outlandish claims.

There's nothing outlandish there. If the House votes tomorrow without a reconciliation deal, it's over. Plain as day.

I hope that's not the case, maybe the negotiations on reconciliation are further along and something will come up today to clear everything up. But it's getting harder and harder to believe.

Yeah that's outlandish.  It's not "over."

You think the centrist Dems will agree to anything after they get the only thing they ever cared about? Now that's outlandish.

I'm don't claim to know what is going on behind the scenes, and I will draw my conclusions once events out of my control have transpired.

So you've got absolutely nothing, except insisting we shouldn't draw the obvious conclusions based on the players' incentives as they have been plainly laid out for all to see since like May. Gotcha.

[Torie]

Of course as a MAGA anti-Dem partisan I want everything to not pass but putting that aside this situation is very interesting from a game theory point of view.  It seems to me the Dem moderates have a clear negations advantage over the Dem progressives.  This is because Biden has not come out strongly and publicall7y saying that unless both the bipartisan and reconciliation bill must pass for his agenda to be successful.   Without that Pelosi and Schumer might have no choice but to try to get something passed and could always borrow GOP votes to overcome Dem progressive defections.  The Dem progressives do not have this option and puts them at a disadvantage.

The game theory calculation from the GOP point of view is also interesting.  I am sure most of them, like me, just want everything to fail and then wait for the 2022 anti-Dem wave.  But lending support to the Dem moderates to get the bipartisan bill passed might increase the divide between Dem moderates and Dem progressives.  There is an argument that it is easier to defeated a divided Dem party that got something done versus a united Dem party that go nothing done in 2022.  Not clear which is better for the GOP but some in the GOP might take the former option and have the talking point of "hey, we did help get something passed."

I don't think you need to get this complicated. It was never creditable for an instant to me that the progressives (that Seattle congresswoman's posturing to the contrary notwithstanding), really disliked the infrastructure bill on its own terms, and would only support in exchange for something big in reconciliation. It was just a hostage game, so it was just a matter of time until their bluff was called, and they folded. They know it would disastrous for the Dems to be seen as having killed both, because they did not get both. The Pubs in the House who vote for infrastructure will do so only because they think it is in their political interest to do so, or believe in it on its own merits, and not to bail out Pelosi. From a solely political standpoint, the Dem dog in the manger scenario is the best for them.

[KaiserDave]

You know I'd love to be proven wrong, but smug dismissal and tautological invocations of Pelosi's supposed infallibility aren't exactly convincing counterarguments.

I am not pretending I know what will happen, and it’s hardly smug to say to stop making really outlandish claims.

There's nothing outlandish there. If the House votes tomorrow without a reconciliation deal, it's over. Plain as day.

I hope that's not the case, maybe the negotiations on reconciliation are further along and something will come up today to clear everything up. But it's getting harder and harder to believe.

Yeah that's outlandish.  It's not "over."

You think the centrist Dems will agree to anything after they get the only thing they ever cared about? Now that's outlandish.

I'm don't claim to know what is going on behind the scenes, and I will draw my conclusions once events out of my control have transpired.

So you've got absolutely nothing, except insisting we shouldn't draw the obvious conclusions based on the players' incentives as they have been plainly laid out for all to see since like May. Gotcha.

I've got nothing and anybody who claims to got everything...doesn't. I don't think we can make plain conclusions.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Interesting, how reconciliation bill will look like in this case.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Interesting, how reconciliation bill will look like in this case.

There isn't gonna be any 3=5T if the debt Ceiling or the Govt isn't funded

[R.P. McM]

You know I'd love to be proven wrong, but smug dismissal and tautological invocations of Pelosi's supposed infallibility aren't exactly convincing counterarguments.

I am not pretending I know what will happen, and it’s hardly smug to say to stop making really outlandish claims.

There's nothing outlandish there. If the House votes tomorrow without a reconciliation deal, it's over. Plain as day.

I hope that's not the case, maybe the negotiations on reconciliation are further along and something will come up today to clear everything up. But it's getting harder and harder to believe.

Yeah that's outlandish.  It's not "over."

You think the centrist Dems will agree to anything after they get the only thing they ever cared about? Now that's outlandish.

I'm don't claim to know what is going on behind the scenes, and I will draw my conclusions once events out of my control have transpired.

So you've got absolutely nothing, except insisting we shouldn't draw the obvious conclusions based on the players' incentives as they have been plainly laid out for all to see since like May. Gotcha.

I've got nothing and anybody who claims to got everything...doesn't. I don't think we can make plain conclusions.

It's pretty obvious that one way or another, the corporatists are going to have to be dragged kicking and screaming to support the reconciliation package. So some manner of coercion will have to be employed. Up until the corporatists broke their side of the agreement, that mechanism was linking the two bills. Consequently, assuming Pelosi has the votes, there are really only two conclusions to be reached from yesterday's developments. Either the progressives have caved; or Pelosi has replaced one mechanism of coercion with another (e.g., the debt ceiling), and Thursday's vote is a largely meaningless gesture. But what purpose would the latter serve? The entire reason the corporatists are demanding an immediate vote on the BIB is because they don't want to be coerced by the rest of the caucus to support the Biden agenda.

[R.P. McM]

Of course as a MAGA anti-Dem partisan I want everything to not pass but putting that aside this situation is very interesting from a game theory point of view.  It seems to me the Dem moderates have a clear negations advantage over the Dem progressives.  This is because Biden has not come out strongly and publicall7y saying that unless both the bipartisan and reconciliation bill must pass for his agenda to be successful.   Without that Pelosi and Schumer might have no choice but to try to get something passed and could always borrow GOP votes to overcome Dem progressive defections.  The Dem progressives do not have this option and puts them at a disadvantage.

The game theory calculation from the GOP point of view is also interesting.  I am sure most of them, like me, just want everything to fail and then wait for the 2022 anti-Dem wave.  But lending support to the Dem moderates to get the bipartisan bill passed might increase the divide between Dem moderates and Dem progressives.  There is an argument that it is easier to defeated a divided Dem party that got something done versus a united Dem party that go nothing done in 2022.  Not clear which is better for the GOP but some in the GOP might take the former option and have the talking point of "hey, we did help get something passed."

I don't think you need to get this complicated. It was never creditable for an instant to me that the progressives (that Seattle congresswoman's posturing to the contrary notwithstanding), really disliked the infrastructure bill on its own terms, and would only support in exchange for something big in reconciliation. It was just a hostage game, so it was just a matter of time until their bluff was called, and they folded. They know it would disastrous for the Dems to be seen as having killed both, because they did not get both. The Pubs in the House who vote for infrastructure will do so only because they think it is in their political interest to do so, or believe in it on its own merits, and not to bail out Pelosi. From a solely political standpoint, the Dem dog in the manger scenario is the best for them.

Having both bills go down would be disastrous for the ~10 corporatist holdouts and their centrist colleagues. Not only would they lose their seats, they'd shoulder the blame for wrecking the Biden presidency. They'd become pariahs to the Democratic base, and future roles within the party would be all but impossible. Pelosi could've balked at their demands, scheduled a vote on the reconciliation package, and dared the small sliver of corporatist holdouts to effectively end their own political careers.

[GP270watch]

Nice to see progressives flex their power. The Biden proposals are popular everywhere outside of Congress.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

House is currently debating the bipartisan bill

Debate has paused with 10 minutes left on each side. Debate will resume on another legislative day.

Debate was completed today. A recorded vote was requested. The vote was postponed.

[Xing]

If the moderate Dems honestly backstab us again and back out of reconciliation, we need a wave of primaries in 2022.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/USProgressives/status/1442906794083295232?s=19

I will now accept my accolades

[roxas11]

Of course as a MAGA anti-Dem partisan I want everything to not pass but putting that aside this situation is very interesting from a game theory point of view.  It seems to me the Dem moderates have a clear negations advantage over the Dem progressives.  This is because Biden has not come out strongly and publicall7y saying that unless both the bipartisan and reconciliation bill must pass for his agenda to be successful.   Without that Pelosi and Schumer might have no choice but to try to get something passed and could always borrow GOP votes to overcome Dem progressive defections.  The Dem progressives do not have this option and puts them at a disadvantage.

The game theory calculation from the GOP point of view is also interesting.  I am sure most of them, like me, just want everything to fail and then wait for the 2022 anti-Dem wave.  But lending support to the Dem moderates to get the bipartisan bill passed might increase the divide between Dem moderates and Dem progressives.  There is an argument that it is easier to defeated a divided Dem party that got something done versus a united Dem party that go nothing done in 2022.  Not clear which is better for the GOP but some in the GOP might take the former option and have the talking point of "hey, we did help get something passed."

Kevin McCarthy and most house republicans have already made it clear that they will not be voting for the bipartisan infrastructure bill

I agree that it would have been a very smart strategy for Republicans to vote for it because it would have given the moderate Dems some much needed political cover. However, that is impossible in the era of Trump since the former president has already said that he will see any vote from Republicans for the bipartisan infrastructure bill as an act of disloyalty towards him and This is the main reason why most house Republicans have already said that they will not support the bill

If anything I believe Kevin McCarthy actually helped progressive Dems by not coming out in support of a bipartisan bill that even Mitch McConnell voted for. Not only did his lack of support make the moderate Dems like foolish for thinking that the house Republicans were going to help them pass their bill, it also made it very clear to progressive Dems that without their votes the bipartisan infrastructure bill is dead

Had McCarthy actually came out in support of the bipartisan infrastructure bill and at least publicly claimed that he would help the moderate Dems pass the bill than it would have put a lot of pressure on both Speaker Nancy Pelosi and progressive democrats

[KaiserDave]

This is why we don't count our chickens

[compucomp]

This is why we don't count our chickens

Indeed, which is why you probably shouldn't be taking a victory lap now, because the most likely outcomes are still that the BIF passes on its own or nothing passes. It's a real demonstration of the Horseshoe Theory when the left is perfectly happy to act as a mirror image of the hated Freedom Caucus, make perfect an enemy of the good, and derail their party's agenda as a result.

[Ferguson97]

This is why we don't count our chickens

Indeed, which is why you probably shouldn't be taking a victory lap now, because the most likely outcomes are still that the BIF passes on its own or nothing passes. It's a real demonstration of the Horseshoe Theory when the left is perfectly happy to act as a mirror image of the hated Freedom Caucus, make perfect an enemy of the good, and derail their party's agenda as a result.

You have this completely backwards.

Moderates are the ones threatening to detail the agenda.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They're still thinking that Rs are gonna lift the Debt Ceiling, but they need the Eliminate the Filibuster and they're not gonna do this aside from the climate change provision, it's a Medicare bill that won't take effect until 2028

[KaiserDave]

This is why we don't count our chickens

Indeed, which is why you probably shouldn't be taking a victory lap now, because the most likely outcomes are still that the BIF passes on its own or nothing passes. It's a real demonstration of the Horseshoe Theory when the left is perfectly happy to act as a mirror image of the hated Freedom Caucus, make perfect an enemy of the good, and derail their party's agenda as a result.

Well, first of all, that's absurd. Second of all, I am not celebrating at all, merely again pointing out the silliness of premature declarations.