Elections Shuffler

[pbrower2a]

Rural areas can go D. As corporate farmers squeeze out slightly-R family farmers, the corporate farmers will be the voters -- until many of their workers become US citizens and start voting. I see much of the agribusiness work (dairying, slaughtering) as prone to union organizing. The corporate farmers will still act like rural aristocrats elsewhere on politics -- very hard Right. It wouldn't take many votes by workers to offset the votes of the corporate farmers.

This will take time. When it does, conservatives will need some new alignment to avoid getting crushed in elections.

[pbrower2a]

Looking at Virginia. Youngkin has two options. He either has to drastically cut some of the GOP losses in NOVA or he must have a monster showing in downstate VA. Do better than Trump by 20+ points in some of the counties down there and win Chesterfield, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake by double digits along with Montgomery and the state bellwether of Radford. No easy task but it's not completely outside the realm of possibility.

Like most rural areas, rural Downstate Virginia isn't growing unless becoming urban, which would then favor Democrats. It has no economic attraction. Winning big in rural areas can win states hemorrhaging urban populations, like Ohio, but where the urban populations are growing, the rural areas might be becoming more R but with smaller populations of voters.