Elections Shuffler

[Devils30]

https://elections-daily.com/the-election-shuffler/

Really enjoying this along with everyone here. It brings some interesting hypotheticals for 2024 for sure. Things I've noticed

1) In Ohio the Dems are f***ed. Dems can win Franklin by 51, Delaware by 13, Hamilton by 35, Cuyahoga by 50 and if nothing else changes they are still over 2% and 115K short. If Mahoning keeps moving red its simply not going to be a winnable state.

2) Georgia is very easy to get Dems to that 2.5-4% win many expect in 2024 with simple shifts left in already Dem trending suburbs.

3) North Carolina has been frustrating for a decade for Dems but might finally shift in 2024 and on. Even a 3% shift in the 10 or so most D trending counties flips the state without accounting for population growth. If the GOP ends up maxing out in rural areas soon, they could have long awaited trouble finally come to the forefront. Most of the GOP's gains in eastern NC have to be with non-whites going forward. GOP still has some potential in western NC but Henderson, Transylvania have 32-33% with a college degree. Many of these college whites are a spillover of liberal Asheville.

4) Without getting back to 18-20% in Dade, its really hard to see Dems winning again in Florida. Getting only 12-15% in Dade means they can get double digits in Seminole, Duval and still lose.

5) Texas looks fairly daunting for a 2020-24 shift that makes it blue but you can see the outlines of a blue Texas 2028 map.

6) Giving Rs a 10% shift in the rural counties outside Dane, WOW and part of NE WI/Eau Claire/La Crosse only gets them to around 3% without accounting for a Dem shift around Milwaukee. Promising trends for Rs but hardly a sure thing here if their rural gains are a lower 5-6% instead.

7) Michigan is not going to be a walk in the park for the GOP, plenty of high population R places trending D like Ottawa, Kent, Grand Traverse, Livingston make their math daunting.

8. PA you can give 10% R gains to most of the sharpest GOP trending counties, Erie and Lackawanna and only get them to about 2% ahead. A fairly modest shift in Philly burbs, Lancaster, Cumberland, Allegheny combined with conservative population growth estimates offsets this.

[Person Man]

I more or less agree on this.

Democrats aren't winning Ohio any time soon because its become too rural. Georgia is "there" and NC is going to be soon as they run out of potential extra Republicans. Florida isn't going Democratic anytime soon because the national messaging down there just doesn't work. Republicans are good at talking to Democratic groups by not vice versa. Texas just isn't "there" yet. It's still too undeveloped despite having a plurality of the top 10 cities there. It will be, though. Michigan is probably like NC in that's its close but changing slowly and probably won't even flip for the next GOP president unless they win by a historic margin. Wisconsin looks like it will probably vote for the next GOP president or go red even before then but it looks like Pennsylvania might not.

[beesley]

Another one:

You can shift every county in Minnesota except Anoka, Carver, Dakota Hennepin, Ramsey, St. Louis, Scott, and Washington 18 points rightward, and Dems still win the state. Not at all promising for Republicans (outside this forum) who seem to think they'll win in the state their next EC Victory.

[bagelman]

Convenience tip: right click and select "show only this frame" or "open this frame in new window"

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I more or less agree on this.

Democrats aren't winning Ohio any time soon because its become too rural. Georgia is "there" and NC is going to be soon as they run out of potential extra Republicans. Florida isn't going Democratic anytime soon because the national messaging down there just doesn't work. Republicans are good at talking to Democratic groups by not vice versa. Texas just isn't "there" yet. It's still too undeveloped despite having a plurality of the top 10 cities there. It will be, though. Michigan is probably like NC in that's its close but changing slowly and probably won't even flip for the next GOP president unless they win by a historic margin. Wisconsin looks like it will probably vote for the next GOP president or go red even before then but it looks like Pennsylvania might not.

TBF Ohio is more urban than Wisconsin or Minnesota, but the rural areas are much redder in OH.

[Person Man]

I more or less agree on this.

Democrats aren't winning Ohio any time soon because its become too rural. Georgia is "there" and NC is going to be soon as they run out of potential extra Republicans. Florida isn't going Democratic anytime soon because the national messaging down there just doesn't work. Republicans are good at talking to Democratic groups by not vice versa. Texas just isn't "there" yet. It's still too undeveloped despite having a plurality of the top 10 cities there. It will be, though. Michigan is probably like NC in that's its close but changing slowly and probably won't even flip for the next GOP president unless they win by a historic margin. Wisconsin looks like it will probably vote for the next GOP president or go red even before then but it looks like Pennsylvania might not.

TBF Ohio is more urban than Wisconsin or Minnesota, but the rural areas are much redder in OH.

So it's almost the same problem that Democrats have in Florida- Republicans can appeal to Democrats far better than Democrats can appeal to Republicans.

[Pericles]

Through my use of the shuffler, which has been making educated guesses on county votes, here's my electoral map.

Somehow I got a bigger swing to the right in PA than WI. It's another D+0.6% victory, as that's the margin in MI.

NC is also really close, it's a pretty inelastic state and it seems Republicans are slightly more maxed out.


NV I think is the closest state in this scenario.


FL swung another point to the right, it doesn't have enough of a college-educated white vote, though I could see Miami-Dade actually swinging slightly back while places like Osceola County go further right. NM is harder to swing right than I thought, it's got a few good urban counties for Dems. And extrapolating from trends is of course great for Dems in CO, I got that to D+20%.
Of course, extrapolating from trends helps Dems in Arizona. I didn't even do it properly with Georgia, too many counties, but it's clear that Democrats would win it again and probably not nearly as close as in 2020.

[Calthrina950]

Is there any way to save one's work on this so that you can edit it later?

[Senator-elect Spark]

Is there any way to save one's work on this so that you can edit it later?

I've found the import/export options to be helpful in uploading prior work, so yes.

This tool is very addicting.

[Calthrina950]

Is there any way to save one's work on this so that you can edit it later?

I've found the import/export options to be helpful in uploading prior work, so yes.

This tool is very addicting.

I've found that to be true. I had to install a "Json Editor" application on my computer to be able to download the file, but I've figured it out. Thank you for the assistance.

[Devils30]

To make it truly good you need census figures from 2021-24 to adjust the turnout for counties. Clearly places like Gwinnett will go up in that category much more than south GA, another reason I think it's staying blue and getting deeper blue.

[Hope For A New Era]

I've developed a bit of a fascination with Idaho recently, after learning of the unusual Superintendent of Public Instruction election in 2018, in which the Republican won by only 17489 votes out of 594465 cast, a margin of 3 points.

This is not an AL-2017-type turnout-difference election. In Ada County (Boise), there were 190502 votes cast in the gubernatorial race, in which the county voted D+1, and 186605 cast in the superintendent race, in which the county voted D+19. This was true and extensive ticket-splitting.

So, based on that 2018 map, I created this. It's a hypothetical D victory map in Idaho, created by adding a bit of #trends to that race. This hypothetical Democrat wins by a 0.2 point margin.




It should be noted that the shift was exceptionally strong in the eastern part of the state (most of those counties had their margins copied verbatim from the 2018 results):



So it's clear that Mormons will be an integral part of any future D coalition in Idaho.

It should also be noted that the Republican candidate got the most raw votes by far out of Canyon (Nampa and Caldwell) and Kootenai (suburban Spokane and resort town of Coeur d'Alene). However, these seem like places likely to trend left strongly during the 2020s.

[Hope For A New Era]

I've found the import/export options to be helpful in uploading prior work, so yes.

I can't seem to find those?

[Calthrina950]

I've found the import/export options to be helpful in uploading prior work, so yes.

I can't seem to find those?

They are in the upper right corner of the map.

[Hope For A New Era]

ogallala aquifer depletion, next generation farm crisis

genuinely not sure if I'm serious or memeing about this

anyway, it's a D win without the insane Kelly NEKS margins

[Chips]

Still addicting.

[Chips]

Came up with a scenario where the GOP wins but the Dems win the popular vote by double-digits. I forgot to export and import.

[Chips]

I've developed a bit of a fascination with Idaho recently, after learning of the unusual Superintendent of Public Instruction election in 2018, in which the Republican won by only 17489 votes out of 594465 cast, a margin of 3 points.

This is not an AL-2017-type turnout-difference election. In Ada County (Boise), there were 190502 votes cast in the gubernatorial race, in which the county voted D+1, and 186605 cast in the superintendent race, in which the county voted D+19. This was true and extensive ticket-splitting.

So, based on that 2018 map, I created this. It's a hypothetical D victory map in Idaho, created by adding a bit of #trends to that race. This hypothetical Democrat wins by a 0.2 point margin.




It should be noted that the shift was exceptionally strong in the eastern part of the state (most of those counties had their margins copied verbatim from the 2018 results):



So it's clear that Mormons will be an integral part of any future D coalition in Idaho.

It should also be noted that the Republican candidate got the most raw votes by far out of Canyon (Nampa and Caldwell) and Kootenai (suburban Spokane and resort town of Coeur d'Alene). However, these seem like places likely to trend left strongly during the 2020s.

Looking back, that is an interesting map!

[Devils30]

I've developed a bit of a fascination with Idaho recently, after learning of the unusual Superintendent of Public Instruction election in 2018, in which the Republican won by only 17489 votes out of 594465 cast, a margin of 3 points.

This is not an AL-2017-type turnout-difference election. In Ada County (Boise), there were 190502 votes cast in the gubernatorial race, in which the county voted D+1, and 186605 cast in the superintendent race, in which the county voted D+19. This was true and extensive ticket-splitting.

So, based on that 2018 map, I created this. It's a hypothetical D victory map in Idaho, created by adding a bit of #trends to that race. This hypothetical Democrat wins by a 0.2 point margin.




It should be noted that the shift was exceptionally strong in the eastern part of the state (most of those counties had their margins copied verbatim from the 2018 results):



So it's clear that Mormons will be an integral part of any future D coalition in Idaho.

It should also be noted that the Republican candidate got the most raw votes by far out of Canyon (Nampa and Caldwell) and Kootenai (suburban Spokane and resort town of Coeur d'Alene). However, these seem like places likely to trend left strongly during the 2020s.

Looking back, that is an interesting map!

I think my point #4 in the original post is exactly how Demings would have to win in 2022. She would need a super surge around Orlando, 10% in Duval and like 13% in Hillsborough along with modest gains in the exurbs like Pasco, Lake, Polk. Rubio is not losing Dade by more than 12-15% maximum.

[NYDem]

Is it just me, or does hitting "enter" at any point reset the map?

EDIT: Yep, did it again 5 states into a map. Fantastic. Is there any way around this?

[Vern]

I love this app

[Chips]

I love this app

I still use the app often myself.

[Xing]

This shows why Nevada will be no easy feat for Republicans. Even if they improve more in the rurals and flip Washoe, they pretty much need to bring Clark within 8.5% to have a chance at winning the state, and within 6.5% if Washoe keeps voting Democratic by a few points. And that's assuming that rural turnout stays high and Republicans don't lose ground there.

[Chips]

This shows why Nevada will be no easy feat for Republicans. Even if they improve more in the rurals and flip Washoe, they pretty much need to bring Clark within 8.5% to have a chance at winning the state, and within 6.5% if Washoe keeps voting Democratic by a few points. And that's assuming that rural turnout stays high and Republicans don't lose ground there.

By improving by 10 points or so in rural counties, the Dems could win Washoe by under a point and win Clark by 9 points and the GOP could still eek out a narrow win.

[Chips]

Minnesota's looking pretty tough for the GOP. The GOP could improve by five points in Hennepin, Ramsey and all the surrounding counties and still lose the state. The GOP really needs to get the rurals in the state to MI and PA levels in order to have a real fighting shot.