Minnesota's looking pretty tough for the GOP. The GOP could improve by five points in Hennepin, Ramsey and all the surrounding counties and still lose the state. The GOP really needs to get the rurals in the state to WI, MI, PA levels in order to have a real fighting shot.
I agree that rural Pennsylvania is very conservative, and much of rural Michigan is too - but rural Wisconsin isn't that conservative; several counties in the Southwest aren't nearly as Republican as they 'should' be given their demographics and rural character. In fact rural Minneosta (see Western Minnesota for just one example, as well as Colin Peterson's 2020 defeat) is arguably a lot more conservative than rural Wisconsin (excluding, obviously, the counties of Cook - which actually swung leftward from 2012 to 2020 - St. Louis, Carlton and Lake). In fact, of the 20 Mondale counties in Minnesota, just five voted against Trump in 2020 (Hennepin, Ramsey, St. Louis, Carlton and Lake Counties). Northern WI is pretty conservative (but similar to Northeast MN there are a few Democratic redoubts, in Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland Counties), but Southwest Wisconsin has a lot of room for GOP support to expand (although one could argue the same is true for Southern Minnesota).
