Elections Shuffler

[neostassenite31]

I more or less agree on this.

Democrats aren't winning Ohio any time soon because its become too rural. Georgia is "there" and NC is going to be soon as they run out of potential extra Republicans. Florida isn't going Democratic anytime soon because the national messaging down there just doesn't work. Republicans are good at talking to Democratic groups by not vice versa. Texas just isn't "there" yet. It's still too undeveloped despite having a plurality of the top 10 cities there. It will be, though. Michigan is probably like NC in that's its close but changing slowly and probably won't even flip for the next GOP president unless they win by a historic margin. Wisconsin looks like it will probably vote for the next GOP president or go red even before then but it looks like Pennsylvania might not.

TBF Ohio is more urban than Wisconsin or Minnesota, but the rural areas are much redder in OH.

Indeed, by both 538's urbanization index and exit polls, Ohio is actually about as urbanized as Virginia and Oregon. While impressive, Trump's 30%+ margins in both rural and small town exurban areas of OH are about 10% weaker compared to MO/IN.

Republicans have a LOT of room for growth in the Midwest

[neostassenite31]

I more or less agree on this.

Democrats aren't winning Ohio any time soon because its become too rural. Georgia is "there" and NC is going to be soon as they run out of potential extra Republicans. Florida isn't going Democratic anytime soon because the national messaging down there just doesn't work. Republicans are good at talking to Democratic groups by not vice versa. Texas just isn't "there" yet. It's still too undeveloped despite having a plurality of the top 10 cities there. It will be, though. Michigan is probably like NC in that's its close but changing slowly and probably won't even flip for the next GOP president unless they win by a historic margin. Wisconsin looks like it will probably vote for the next GOP president or go red even before then but it looks like Pennsylvania might not.

TBF Ohio is more urban than Wisconsin or Minnesota, but the rural areas are much redder in OH.

Minnesota DFL are largely the partisan opposite of Florida Republicans too, they're still very good at talking to otherwise Republican voters.

The DFL's rural outreach program is in complete shambles after 2016. The so-called "rural caucus" is now mostly a messaging vehicle because the composition of the state party's central committee has changed to closely resemble the DFL caucus's makeup in the state legislature: where 70-80% of the rank-and-file are from the Twin Cities metro, even if not everyone literally lives in Mpls or St. Paul.

There's a reason why many rural DFL county organizations now routinely deride the state party as a "metrocentric" club. The party still retains 30-35% support across large swabs of rural counties, which given the current trajectory is unlikely to be sustainable over the long-term.