Elections Shuffler

[Pericles]

Through my use of the shuffler, which has been making educated guesses on county votes, here's my electoral map.

Somehow I got a bigger swing to the right in PA than WI. It's another D+0.6% victory, as that's the margin in MI.

NC is also really close, it's a pretty inelastic state and it seems Republicans are slightly more maxed out.


NV I think is the closest state in this scenario.


FL swung another point to the right, it doesn't have enough of a college-educated white vote, though I could see Miami-Dade actually swinging slightly back while places like Osceola County go further right. NM is harder to swing right than I thought, it's got a few good urban counties for Dems. And extrapolating from trends is of course great for Dems in CO, I got that to D+20%.
Of course, extrapolating from trends helps Dems in Arizona. I didn't even do it properly with Georgia, too many counties, but it's clear that Democrats would win it again and probably not nearly as close as in 2020.

[Pericles]

Pennsylvania seems harder for Republicans than I expected, since unlike Michigan and Wisconsn they already have landslide margins in most rural counties. While it doesn't look like they have a WOW type area ripe for a Dem trend, overall Michigan and Wisconsin are to the left of where they 'should' be so maybe over the next few elections Pennsylvania will stay where it is while the other two move away from pure tossup status.