So I used the Shuffler to shift the counties with the strongest Trump trends back to Hillary 2016 margins
So, some interesting results, first it only shaves around a point off of Trump's margin in Texas, more importantly, the vast majority of said shaving off comes from three counties: Cameron, Hidalgo, Webb, the rest of the counties only shave around 0.2 off of Trump's margin, Hidalgo is the largest of the bunch, shaving off 0.45 off of Trump's margin. Cameron is the next largest, shaving off around 0.2, and Webb is the smallest, shaving off around 0.17.
So, thus three conclusions:
1. The RGV is not going to stop Blexas, it may delay it, but it alone won't prevent it.
2. It is a waste to spend time anywhere in the RGV except Hidalgo, Cameron, or Webb, the other counties simply don't have enough people to matter.
3. In the long term, the only people the RGV trend should affect is Gonzales and Cuellar.
(and a bonus one)
4. People were too quick to doom and gloom on Blexas following the RGV trend, forgot that is mostly rural and has few urbanized parts (and unsurprisingly, said urbanized places still gave double digit margins to Biden).
Texas only trended one point towards the democrats in the past 4 years
