MD-Sen: Cardin leads Steele. Steele leads Mfume.

[Moooooo]

Public Opinion Strategies

MD SENATE
Ben Cardin (D) 43%
Michael Steele (R) 35%

Michael Steele (R) 40%
Kweisi Mfume (D) 39%

MD SENATE - DEM PRIMARY
Ben Cardin 31%
Kweisi Mfume 25%
Joshua Rales 4%

Just an FYI.  This company does internal polling for the Ehrlich campaign.

[ATFFL]

Just an FYI.  This company does internal polling for the Ehrlich campaign.

True, but they also do a lot of media polls.

[Akno21]

Rales has actually had more television advertisements than Mfume has, from what I've noticed. Not that I think Rales will make a serious impact on this race, but it's interesting that a candidate with no hope of winning has a similar media presence to one within striking distance.

[Keystone Phil]

Go Mfume!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cardin is going to win, the blacks are only located in Baltimore. The rest of the state is nonblack. And in midterms, blacks don't come out as if it was a presidential election.

[AuH2O]

It all comes down to Rales IMO. There isn't much time, but only a 10% + performance from him can stop Cardin... honestly it might take more than that. In fact other candidates (other than Cardin and Mfume) could approach 20% and Cardin would still be the favorite.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the blacks are only located in Baltimore. The rest of the state is nonblack

Er... no. No... that's not really true...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am saying that blacks don't turn out as much as they do in midterm elections as they do in presidential elections. You saw what happened in the mayoral election in MD when they had a Black person challenge O'Malley and the black lost. I am saying that blacks aren't likely to vote in this election than in presidential elections and handicap Mfume.  Plus, O'Malley running for Gov will pull Cardin over the top. And Cardin being a congresssman has greater media exposure than Mfume.

Most blacks are either in Baltimore or DC and DC don't have a say so in local elections.

[Akno21]

Most blacks are either in Baltimore or DC and DC don't have a say so in local elections.

What about Prince George's County with it's 63% black population. PG is one of the largest counties in Maryland.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am saying the most blacks are concentrated in Baltimore I am not arguing the percentage of blacks with with you. The fact of the matter is that Baltimore and Washington DC have the largest population, and the most population of blacks, not the percentage of blacks are located in those two cities.

[Nation]

Rales has actually had more television advertisements than Mfume has, from what I've noticed. Not that I think Rales will make a serious impact on this race, but it's interesting that a candidate with no hope of winning has a similar media presence to one within striking distance.

Probably not, but I'll still be voting for Rales anyway.

[Eraserhead]

Good to see Cardin is back in front (primary wise).

[Moooooo]

Cardin is putting the finishing touches on Mfume.  He just dropped around a half a MIL on advertising that will run from now till the primary.  I have yet to see on Mfume ad.  To be honest, I believe he only has 100,000 in cash, which would buy all of about 50 ads or so, and then his campaign would be bankrupt.

You can view Cardin's first two ad's here...  They portray exactly who he is and exactly what Maryland likes.

http://www.bencardin.com/multimedia/video080806

http://www.bencardin.com/multimedia/video081406

[Moooooo]

Rales has actually had more television advertisements than Mfume has, from what I've noticed. Not that I think Rales will make a serious impact on this race, but it's interesting that a candidate with no hope of winning has a similar media presence to one within striking distance.

Probably not, but I'll still be voting for Rales anyway.

I know you're one of the least partisan democrats on this forum, but you are aware that Rales is a former Republican who has run for numerous local offices as a Republican?  He only recently changed his party affiliation because he realized Republicans dont win in MoCo.  Unless, of course, you're Connie Morella.

[TheresNoMoney]

I hope Cardin wins the primary. Democrats don't need another close race to worry about.

[Akno21]

I am saying the most blacks are concentrated in Baltimore I am not arguing the percentage of blacks with with you. The fact of the matter is that Baltimore and Washington DC have the largest population, and the most population of blacks, not the percentage of blacks are located in those two cities.

There are over 500,000 African Americans living in Prince George's county. I don't think that is a number that should just be discarded as meaningless. Maryland isn't a state with an especially high population.

[Rob]

I hope Cardin wins the primary. Democrats don't need another close race to worry about.

[Moooooo]

Nation...

Who do you like for Attorney General?

Doug Gansler or Tom Perez?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blacks don't come out in midterm and off year elections. They didn't come out to support the Black mayoral candidate over O'Malley. The Black turnout is going to be low and it will have an effect on Mfume. If this was a presidential year, I would give the advantage to Mfume. Plus it has been proven in poll after poll that Cardin is the stronger candidate. I think Rales take away support from Mfume and Cardin wins.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think Cardin should win the race but I wonder if this year's climate of change and anti-incumbency means Mfume could win?  There are White voters in Maryland who would obviously vote for a black candidate and he could have strong organisation and support amongst African Americans.

[Sam Spade]

Most blacks are either in Baltimore or DC and DC don't have a say so in local elections.

What about Prince George's County with it's 63% black population. PG is one of the largest counties in Maryland.

Exactly what I was thinking.

[Nation]

Rales has actually had more television advertisements than Mfume has, from what I've noticed. Not that I think Rales will make a serious impact on this race, but it's interesting that a candidate with no hope of winning has a similar media presence to one within striking distance.

Probably not, but I'll still be voting for Rales anyway.

I know you're one of the least partisan democrats on this forum, but you are aware that Rales is a former Republican who has run for numerous local offices as a Republican?  He only recently changed his party affiliation because he realized Republicans dont win in MoCo.  Unless, of course, you're Connie Morella.

My vote is more of an anti-Cardin and Mfume vote -- and from what I've seen as Rales, he's idealistically my best match anyway.

Not that it matters.

[Smash255]

Blacks don't come out in midterm and off year elections. They didn't come out to support the Black mayoral candidate over O'Malley. The Black turnout is going to be low and it will have an effect on Mfume. If this was a presidential year, I would give the advantage to Mfume. Plus it has been proven in poll after poll that Cardin is the stronger candidate. I think Rales take away support from Mfume and Cardin wins.

I agree that Cardin will win, but what you stated earlier about more blacks in Baltimore is absolutley incorrect.  the % of Blacks in Baltimore & Price Georges are about equal (63% iN price Georges, 64% in Baltimore), Baltimore has a slighly higehr white population due to Price Geroges larger hispanic population.  Prince Georges is also a bit larger than Baltimore, has 200,000 more people, and about 120,000 more blacks than Prince Georges.  Kerry won Prince Georges by 64.37% in 04 by 205,000 votes almost 70,000 votes more than his victory in Baltimore (64.99% ) 138,792.   .

Cardin will win, but your arguments need work.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Smash, Baltimore is in Prince George County, that why I said that Baltimore has the most people in it. Baltimore is the most populous city in Maryland, and that's where all the blacks are located. So, my arguement doesn't need work, Baltimore is inside of Prince George County where the majority of blacks are.

[Alcon]

Smash, Baltimore is in Prince George County, that why I said that Baltimore has the most people in it. Baltimore is the most populous city in Maryland, and that's where all the blacks are located. So, my arguement doesn't need work, Baltimore is inside of Prince George County where the majority of blacks are.

You really don't have any idea of what you are talking about.

Baltimore is not at all in Prince George's (not Prince George) County.  It is an independent city, surrounded on all sides by Baltimore County.  In fact, Prince George's County is not even a suburb of Baltimore; it is much closer to Washington, D.C.

Sorry, but if you do not know that Prince George's County and Baltimore are different places, you really have no credibility to be talking about Maryland politics.