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[TwinGeeks99]

2022 United States Midterm Elections


Source: Flickr

The 2022 United States midterm elections were held in November 8th, 2022. The final results took over two weeks to be finalized, as some close House of Representatives races took time to count and call. This election is considered today a turning point in the United State's political history, as an expected backlash against the Biden Administration like in most midterms historically resulted, instead, in a net positive for his party. This was considered by historians the first real rejection of Americans to the Reaganist Consensus of the past decades, and the beginning of the Bidenist Consensus.

In the Senate, Democrats gained two seats, while losing none. The closest races were in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and all went for the Democrats except for Wisconsin. The big story was the ability of Biden to keep and turn out his base of minority voters, including black voters and Hispanic voters who didn't swing left from the 2020 election but still remained fairly Democratic, and educated white voters, especially in suburbs, who continued trending sharply left.

In Nevada, where Republicans saw an opportunity, Democrats managed to save their incumbent, Catherine Cortez Masto, through strong support in Clark County with its population center of Las Vegas, and in the left-trending Washoe County. Despite Republican gainst among Hispanic voters, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt narrowly lost to Cortez Masto. Meanwhile, the open sets in the Midwestern states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania went different ways, and much of it was considered due to candidate quality- Sean Parnell, the Trump-endorsed Republican in Pennsylvania who faced allegations of domestic abuse and was seen as an extremist, allowed Democrat Conor Lamb to get strong turnout from the base, and though the Trumpist base turned out too, Parnell couldn't convince any Biden voters to go on his side and turned off even some Trump 2020 voters. In Wisconson, despite Republcians nominating a Trump-endorsed candidate in Sean Duffy, he was a good enough candidate to take advantage of the midterm trends and defeat Democrat Mandela Burns.

North Carolina had the biggest upset of the night- candidate quality once again proved decisive as the state turned blue again and chose astronaut Joan Higginbotham as Senator over Lara Trump by a fairly safe margin, considered a painful rebuke to Trumpism. Georgia continued its quick trend left as well, choosing Rephael Warnock again over Trump friend Herschel Walker by a surprisingly wide margin- this was attributed both to a strong Democratic state party and a strong campaign by Warnock. In Arizona, a Trumpist candidate against spoiled his party's chances as Mike Kelly beat Andy Biggs without much hardship. New Hampshire, where the strongest possible Republican candidate Chris Sununu embarrassingly lost the primary, gave Democrat Maggie Hassan an easy victory, and in Colorado Michael Bennet won a landslide.

Republicans had other bright spots in Iowa and Florida, where Chuck Grassley and Marco Rubio won reelection by safe margins, and in Ohio, where Josh Mandel won despite a closer-than-expected race that stemmed from his extremist rhetoric.

In the House, the banning of gerrymandering lead to a scrambling for maps made by independent commissions. States that couldn't manage to assemble a commission in time had maps drawn by courts. Overall, despite commissions in states like Florida, California, New York and Texas not exactly escaping the partisanship of the state's local government, the maps were a lot more balanced accross the board, and as Republicans controlled gerrymandering in most states after a 2010 election victory, this allowed for a small Democratic net loss in the election in spite of a narrower general margin between Democrats and Republicans than in 2020. The Democratic caucus now numbered 223 in the House, five less than in 2021, and the Republican caucus was 212, five more than in 2021.

These failures were blamed by many GOP leaders on Trump- his great influence on recruitment of candidates, supporting much more extreme candidates who believed in election conspiracy theories,

Alabama 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Mo Brooks- 63.6% ✓
State Representative Christopher England- 35.8%
Others- 0.6%

Alaska 2022 Senate Election (First Round)
Fmr. Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka- 36.8%
Senator Lisa Murkowski (I)- 32.4%
State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson- 28.4%
Mr. Dustin Darden- 2.4%

Alaska 2022 Senate Election (Allocated)
Senator Lisa Murkowski (I)- 58.5% ✓
Fmr. Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka- 41.5%

Arizona 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Mike Kelly (I)- 51.7% ✓
U.S. Representative Andy Biggs- 47.3%
Others- 1.0%

Arkansas 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Boozman (I)- 67.9% ✓
Fmr. City Alderman Jack Foster- 30.7%
Others- 1.4%

California 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Alex Padilla (I)- 73.8% ✓
Fmr. State Assemblyman Jerome Horton- 26.2%

Colorado 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Michael Bennet (I)- 54.2% ✓
Olympian Eli Bremer- 42.5%
Others- 3.3%

Connecticut 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Richard Blumenthal (I)- 67.2% ✓
Businessman Robert Hyde- 30.2%
Others- 2.6%

Florida 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Marco Rubio (I)- 50.4% ✓
U.S. Representative Val Demings- 43.9%
Others- 5.7%

Georgia 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Rephael Warnock (I)- 50.5% ✓
Football player Herschel Walker- 48.2%
Others- 1.3%

Hawaii 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Brian Schatz (I)- 72.7% ✓
Mr. Ron Curtis- 26.9%
Others- 0.4%

Idaho 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Mike Crapo (I)- 66.2% ✓
Businesswoman Nancy Harris- 32.6%
Others- 1.2%

Illinois 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Tammy Duckworth (I)- 56.2% ✓
Fmr. Officer Peggy Hubbard- 41.9%
Others- 1.9%

Indiana 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Todd Young (I)- 53.8% ✓
Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr.- 42.4%
Others- 3.8%

Iowa 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Chuck Grassley (I)- 54.2% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer- 45.2%
Others- 0.6%

Kansas 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Jerry Moran (I)- 57.2% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Mark Holland- 42.3%
Others- 0.5%

Kentucky 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Rand Paul (I)- 59.7% ✓
Fmr. State Representative Charles Booker- 37.5%
Others- 2.8%

Louisisna 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Kennedy (I)- 58.3% ✓
Veteran Luke Mixon- 21.7%
Activist Gary Chambers- 14.4%
Others- 5.6%

Maryland 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Chris Van Hollen (I)- 79.2% ✓
Activist Kim Klacik- 17.5%
Others- 3.3%

Missouri 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Billy Long- 52.7% ✓
Veteran Lucas Kunce- 45.7%
Others- 1.6%

Nevada 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (I)- 48.4% ✓
Fmr. Attorney General Adam Laxalt- 47.9%
Others- 3.7%

New Hampshire 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Maggie Hassan (I)- 52.8% ✓
Ret. Brigadier General Donald Bolduc- 45.9%
Others- 1.3%

New York 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Chuck Schumer (I)- 71.3% ✓
Businessman Antoine "Montaga" Tucker- 26.3%
Others- 2.4%

North Carolina 2022 Senate Election:
NASA Astronaut Joan Higginbotham- 49.5% ✓
TV Producer Lara Trump- 47.6%
Others- 2.9%

North Dakota 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Hoeven (I)- 82.6% ✓
Businessman Michael Steele- 13.6%
Others- 3.8%

Ohio 2022 Senate Election:
Fmr. Treasurer Josh Mandel- 49.2% ✓
U.S. Representative Tim Ryan- 48.0%
Others- 2.8%

Oklahoma 2022 Senate Election:
Senator James Lankford (I)- 61.3% ✓
Businessman Jason Bollinger- 35.5%
Others- 3.2%

Oregon 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Ron Wyden (I)- 58.3% ✓
Mrs. Jo Rae Perkins- 38.4%
Others- 3.3%

Pennsylvania 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Conor Lamb- 50.2% ✓
Veteran Sean Parnell- 48.0%
Others- 1.8%

South Carolina 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Tim Scott (I)- 62.4% ✓
State Representative Krystle Matthews- 36.9%
Others- 0.7%

South Dakota 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Thune (I)- 67.5% ✓
State Senator Troy Heinert- 30.3%
Others- 2.2%

Utah 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Mike Lee (I)- 51.8% ✓
Fmr. CIA Officer Evan McMullin- 43.5%
Others- 4.7%

Vermont 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Peter Welch- 67.0% ✓
Businessman Scott Milne- 31.6%
Others- 1.4%

Washington 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Patty Murray (I)- 61.6% ✓
Nurse Tiffany Smiley- 36.9%
Others- 1.5%

Wisconsin 2022 Senate Election:
Fmr. U.S. Representative Sean Duffy- 49.5% ✓
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns- 48.6%
Others- 1.9%

Senate Balance

The Democratic Caucus- 53 Seats ↑ (+2)
Democrats- 51 Seats
Democratic-Caucusing Independents- 2 Seats

The Republican Caucus- 47 Seats ↓ (-2)
Republicans- 47 Seats

Seems like a pipe dream now after what happened in Virginia and New Jersey.

[TwinGeeks99]

Seems like a pipe dream now after what happened in Virginia and New Jersey.

1. This is not a prediction
2. Read the rest of the timeline for context

Not saying it was a prediction, just noting that the scenario here now seems far-fetched IOTL.