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  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« on: March 26, 2021, 01:39:12 PM »
« edited: March 27, 2021, 03:01:43 AM by Parrotguy »

"And we can now officially call the 2020 Presidential Election for former Vice President Joe Biden!"

"Indeed, Wolf, we can officially project that Joe Biden will get more than the 270 electoral votes required to win the Presidential election."

"Let us now go to the Biden campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware as President-elect Biden addresses a small, socially-distanced, masked but enthusiastic crowd of supporters..."

"Folks, we did it! Me and Jill couldn't be more grateful to each and every one of you, this victory is yours! There is light at the end of the tunnel- America is back!"


Boring is Back
A Tale of the 2020s and Beyond


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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2021, 01:41:54 PM »

A few notes:
- Some of you might remember this exact same TL from me. I'm relaunching it with some changes and a fresh start.

- This project is meant to be an overview of roughly, realistically, how I'd like the world to look in the coming decades. It won't be eternal left-wing rule or something like that, though. It starts with some slight changes to our timeline, ie some different results in the American and Israeli elections, but diverges more and more with time.

- It will focus mostly on American and Israeli politics, but touch upon different countries accorss the globe (for example, the Dutch and German elections will definitely be covered in the timeline's 2021)
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2021, 02:24:16 PM »

PM Lapid?...
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2021, 03:02:50 PM »
« Edited: March 26, 2021, 03:07:44 PM by Parrotguy »

Livni

Source: Flickr

November 6th, 2020

Former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni opened the newspaper with a slight smile. It was Yediot Ahronot, Israel's most widespread newspaper, and it had a huge frontpage picture of Joe and Jill Biden raising each other's hand in triumph as confetti falls from above. The headline said simply "הנשיא ביידן", "PRESIDENT BIDEN". Below, in the secondary headline, was a sentence that made her smile a bit wider. "תם עידן טראמפ- הבוחרים האמריקנים העניקו לביידן ניצחון ברור". "The Trump era is over- the American voters gave Biden a clear victory". Another section of the frontpage advertised a piece about Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, the first woman Vice President.

At least the Americans would be able to enjoy some peace and calm, she thought. She couldn't say the same about her own country. The past couple years have been nothing but chaotic- three elections, ending with an embarrassing bending of the center-left bloc with Benny Gantz, the leader of the centrist Blue & White, splitting from Yesh Atid's Yair Lapid and joining Netanyahu's government. The last hope to replace Netanyahu was shattered, and all thanks to three Members of Knesset (MKs) who refused to agree to a government supported by the Arab Joint List from outside.

The new government was incredibly dysfunctional, characterized by constant attempts from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and "replacement Prime Minister" Benny Gantz to thwart each other. The government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic was an unmitigated disaster- no plan, no long-term thought. A recent lockdown brought the numbers down, but at a great economic cost, and it seemed inevitable that a third lockdown will be needed. Throughout the past months, a huge protest wave started against Netanhyahu and his government, and the Prime Minister had been doing nothing but trying to incite against protestors and suppress them. And the government was constantly at the brink of collapse, as Netanyahu broke the agreement and refused to pass a two-year budget that would ensure the rotation agreement with Gantz. It was clear that the government's days were very numbered.

The coming end of that government didn't reassure her, because the political landscape was just turning against them. Running from the right of Netanyahu's Likud and presenting a coherent and praised plan to handle the epidemic, Yamina leader Naftali Bennet had been surging in the polls, his party polling second to Likud. He tried to appeal to a liberal audience, while running on the same list with Bezalel Smotrich, the worst homophobe and transphobe in the Knesset, and his National Union religious party.

The center-left was in shambles. Yesh Atid, the anti-Netanyahu centrists led by Lapid, were been stuck in mid-teens of Knesset seats. Blue & White, lead by Gantz, were struggling to reach 10 seats. The left-wing Meretz, despite remaining the only viable left-wing party in the country, were stuck in their usual numbers between 4 to 8 seats. Instead, the new stars of the anti-Bibi bloc were Bennet, who she knew would eventually support Netanyahu like he always did, and Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, in the past presenting as a right-wing hawkish party and now trying to show a civic liberal face.

But it wasn't her problem to handle now. She was out of politics, for good. She waded through that mud enough. And yet... people had been calling her, for years now, asking her to come back. She's among the last leaders on the center-left who's both very experienced in government and principled. She was a woman, for a change. She wasn't seen as radical, and she was respected across the world from her days as Foreign Minister. But there was no point in giving that any thought- there was just no space for her in the current political climate.

Positive thoughts! No negativity, she had to remind herself again. Trump was gone! Biden would be President of the United States! Now it was time for anyone left of the center to be happy, not to stress themselves out.

Next Israeli Knesset Election (Polling)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 28 Seats
Yamina (Naftali Bennet)- 22 Seats
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 17 Seats
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 13 Seats
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 10 Seats
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 8 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 8 Seats
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats
Meretz (Nitzan Horovitz)- 7 Seats
Labour (Amir Peretz)- 0 Seats
Jewish Home (Rafi Peretz)- 0 Seats
Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben Gvir)- 0 Seats
Gesher (Orly Levy Abekasis)- 0 Seats
Derekh Eretz (Yoaz Hendel & Zvi Hauser)- 0 Seats

Coming next: results of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2021, 03:12:53 PM »

Yesh Atid+JL+BW+Meretz+YB is a stretch and nowhere close to a majority. On the other hand Netanyahu has a hard time getting 61 with this to.
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2021, 05:08:47 PM »
« Edited: March 27, 2021, 06:04:17 AM by Parrotguy »

Special Report: Final Results of the 2020 General Election
Part I- The Presidential Election



Source: Flickr

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Two days after the election and with sufficient amount of the vote in key states in, we could project that America chose Joe Biden as its next President, rejecting the Presidency of Donald Trump.

After tumultous four years characterized by failure to pass healthcare reform, strict immigration policies, increasing racial tensions, the emboldening of white supremacists, broken agreements with allies and enemies abroad and finally, a catastrophic handling of a global pandemic, the Trump Presidency is set to be over in late January.

The Republican Party faced mixed results. Results in the House of Representatives showed a net gain for the GOP despite the national Democratic victory, with a number of seats exchanging hands on both sides. The Senate's fate is uncertain, and will be decided by the November runoffs in Georgia.

President Trump refused to concede the election, baselessly alleging widespread fraud and pointing to his leads in various states before mail and absentee ballots tipped the balance in Biden's favour. This led many members of the President's party to join him and call for investigations and recounts. It remains to be seen if he will eventually conceded or continue the baseless fraud allegations.

With the final results counted and certified, we will bring to you detailed results of the Presidential race and key federal and local races.

The 2020 Presidential Election



Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 52.4%, 321 Electoral Votes ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 45.8%, 217 Electoral Votes
Dr. Jo Jorgensen (L-SC)\Activist Spike Cohen (L-MD)- 1.2%, 0 Electoral Votes
Activist Howie Hawkins (G-NY)\Activist Angela Nicole Walker (G-WI)- 0.2%, 0 Electoral Votes
Others- 0.4%

Key States:

Alaska 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 52.1% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 43.7%
Others- 4.2%

Arizona 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 50.2% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 48.5%
Others- 1.3%

Colorado 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 56.1% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 41.6%
Others- 2.3%

Florida 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 50.4% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 48.8%
Others- 0.8%

Georgia 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 49.7% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 49.1%
Others- 1.2%

Iowa 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 52.4% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 45.6%
Others- 2.0%

Kansas 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 54.5% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 43.1%
Others- 2.4%

Maine 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 54.7% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 42.3%
Others- 3.0%

Maine 1st Congressional District 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 61.1% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 35.7%
Others- 3.2%

Maine 2nd Congressional District 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 51.7% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 45.6%
Others- 2.7%

Michigan 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 51.8% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 47.0%
Others- 1.2%

Minnesota 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 53.4% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 45.0%
Others- 1.6%

Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 53.2% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 44.7%
Others- 2.1%

Nevada 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 50.8% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 46.9%
Others- 2.3%

New Hampshire 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 54.4% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 43.7%
Others- 1.9%

New Mexico 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 55.7% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 42.3%
Others- 2.0%

North Carolina 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 49.38% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 49.32%
Others- 1.30%

Ohio 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 52.1% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 46.4%
Others- 1.5%

Pennsylvania 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 50.9% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 48.1%
Others- 1.0%

Texas 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 51.3% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 47.5%
Others- 1.2%

Virginia 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 55.8% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 43.1%
Others- 1.1%

Wisconsin 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 49.9% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 48.5%
Others- 1.6%

In the end, Joe Biden won despite close calls in severalkey states. He took most competitive states in the Midwest, with the exceptions of Ohio and Iowa, which went for Donald Trump by larger than expected margins (albeit closer than in 2016), thus showing their rightward trend is here to stay and breaking Ohio's long streak of voting for the Presidential winner. While Trump overperformed polling in Midwestern states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (but not Minnesota), losing by relatively narrow margins, Biden overperformed in Arizona and Georgia, where he managed surprising upset victories. The closest state was North Carolina, where Biden snatched a very narrow win due to a surge in black turnout and a successful Senate campaign by State Senator Jeff Jackson.

On the other hand, Florida and Texas came as disappointments, with a big story of the night being a surge of Hispanic voters turning out for the Republican Presidential and local candidates. Those seemed to be not only Cuban voters, who turned on Democrats en-masse, but also non-voters with conservative values, many of whom were influenced by a surge of far-right propaganda in Spanish-speaking media. With the President toning down his rhetoric on Hispanic immigrants and focusing on Black Lives Matter, and with the QAnon conspiracy theory taking hold of far-right movements, it seemed many of these voters felt able to vote for President Trump, who opened his campaign in 2015 with describing Mexican immigrants as "criminals and rapists".

For now, despite worrisome future trends, Democrats can be happy with the knowledge that they won the election. The challenge of governing will come soon.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2021, 08:25:24 PM »

Which Senate and House races were different from real life?
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2021, 05:42:04 AM »
« Edited: April 14, 2021, 02:49:48 PM by Parrotguy »

Special Report: Final Results of the 2020 General Election
Part II- The Federal & Local Races



Source: Flickr

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Despite a decisive victory for their Biden-Harris ticket, Democrats got mixed results for the congressional elections. In the Senate, Democrats picked up only three seats while Republicans picked up the one in Alabama, leading to a 49-49 balance. Senate control will be decided in the January runoffs for the two Georgia Senate races, which historically lean Republican in their turnout. Democrats need to pick up just one of the seats in order to gain a majority with Vice President-elect Harris present to break ties. We will now go over the key races and their results.

The 2020 Senate Elections



Senate Balance

The Democratic Caucus- 49 Seats ↑ (+2)
Democrats- 47 Seats

Democratic-Caucusing Independents- 2 Seats

The Republican Caucus- 49 Seats ↓ (-2)
Republicans- 49 Seats


Headed to Runoff- 2 Seats

Key Races:

Alabama 2020 Senate Election Results
Former Coach Tommy Tuberville- 54.7% ✓
Senator Doug Jones (I)- 45.3%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN PICKUP

Alaska 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Dan Sullivan (I)- 51.9% ✓
Dr. Al Gross- 43.7%
Others- 4.4%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Arizona 2020 Senate Election Results
Astronaut Mike Kelly- 52.8% ✓
Senator Martha McSally (I)- 47.2%
Others- 0.0%
DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Arkansas 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Tom Cotton (I)- 62.3% ✓
Mr. Ricky Dale Harrington, Jr.- 36.7%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Colorado 2020 Senate Election Results
Fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper- 53.6% ✓
Senator Cory Gardener (I)- 44.0%
Others- 2.4%
DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Georgia 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator David Perdue (I)- 49.2% ✓
Journalist Jon Ossoff- 48.7% ✓
Mr. Shane Hazel- 2.1%
Others- 0.0%
HEADED TO RUNOFF

Georgia 2020 Special Senate Election Results
Reverend Rephael Warnock- 35.5%% ✓
Senator Kelly Loeffler (I)- 23.3% ✓
U.S. Rep. Doug Collins- 18.9%
Fmr. Mayor Deborah Jackson- 7.1%
Businessman Matt Lieberman- 2.3%
Others- 12.9%
HEADED TO RUNOFF

Iowa 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Joni Ernst (I)- 50.4% ✓
Businesswoman Theresa Greenfield- 46.8%
Others- 2.8%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Kansas 2020 Senate Election Results
U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall- 51.7% ✓
State Senator Barbara Bollier- 44.4%
Others- 3.9%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Kentucky 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Mitch McConnell (I)- 56.3% ✓
Veteran Amy McGrath- 39.6%
Others- 4.1%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Louisiana 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Bill Cassidy (I)- 58.3% ✓
Mayor Adrian Perkins- 22.1%
Others- 19.6%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Maine 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Susan Collins (I)- 50.2% ✓
Speaker Sara Gideon- 43.3%
Teacher Lisa Savage- 4.8%
Mr. Max Linn- 1.7%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Michigan 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Gary Peters (I)- 50.6% ✓
Businessman John James- 48.1%
Others- 1.3%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Minnesota 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Tina Smith (I)- 50.6% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Jason Lewis- 43.1%
Marijuana Sickos- 6.3%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Mississippi 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Cindy Hyde Smith (I)- 53.6% ✓
Fmr. Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy- 44.5%
Others- 1.9%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Montana 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Steve Daines (I)- 53.0% ✓
Governor Steve Bullock- 47.0%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

New Hampshire 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Jeanne Shaheen (I)- 57.2% ✓
Attorney Bryant "Corky" Messner- 40.6%
Others- 2.2%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

North Carolina 2020 Senate Election Results
State Senator Jeff Jackson- 49.2% ✓
Senator Thom Tillis (I)- 46.6%
Others- 4.2%
DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

South Carolina 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Lindsey Graham (I)- 52.9% ✓
State Party Chair Jaime Harrison- 45.4%
Mr. Bill Bledsoe- 1.7%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Texas 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator John Cornyn (I)- 51.9% ✓
Veteran M.J. Hegar- 45.6%
Others- 2.5%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Virginia 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Mark Warner (I)- 56.4% ✓
Veteran Daniel Gade- 43.6%
Others- 0.0%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Many Democrats were fairly disappointed in the results. Several races in red states thought winnable, like Montana, South Carolina and Alaska, didn't come close. And they missed one key race they thought was nearly guaranteed- Maine, where the mdoerate brand of Senator Collins proved the better of Democrat Sarah Gideon. However, the focus is now on Georgia, where Rephael Warnock and Jon Ossoff will try to hold onto the Biden coalition and turn it out once again in the January runoff against Senators Perdue and Loeffler. The special election is considered tough for Democrats due to the need to turn out their base after the general election, but Ossoff and Warnock will attempt to combine their appeal to young liberals and black Americans to create a strong enough turnout and win together.

In the lower chamber of Congress, Democrats found many disappointments as well, as despite the many seats they were contesting in an offensive, they actually had a net loss of seats and lost several members elected in 2018. This was considered a result of  Trump being on the ballot, and the many voters he turned out, especially the new Hispanic voters who dealt Democrats several disappointments in Texas. However, Democrats did secure a fairly solid majority (though with some very narrow margins). This was done thanks to poor recruitment by Republicans in Trump-voting seats, a continuation of the pro-Democratic trends in suburban districts, enthusiasm that allowed candidates to fundraise large numbers, and a new, more balanced map in North Carolina.

House Balance



The Democratic Caucus- 228 Seats ↓ (-7)
The Republican Caucus- 207 Seats ↑ (+8)

Democrats, expecting a gain in the House coming into the election, came out with some bruising defeats. They couldn't gain or hold onto some historically Republican suburban seats that trended towards them, and lost a few of their 2018 freshmen. In MN-7, longtime Representative Collin Peterson finally lost to Republican Michelle Fischbach. Xochitl Torres Small (NM-2) and Kendra Horn (OK-5), considered upset winners in 2018, lost to their Republican opponents, while in IA-1 the young Rep. Abby Finkenauer lost to Republican Ashley Hinson. In California, Democrats lost two suburban seats- CA-39 and CA-48 where, respectively, Gil Cisenros and Harley Rouda lost their seats to Young Kim and Michelle Steele. And Max Rose lost his Staten Island-based seat to Nicole Malliotakis. Florida came as a special disappointment, with Cuban voters turning against the Demcorats leading to the loss of the Miami-based Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in FL-26 and Donna Shalala in FL-27.

However, it was not all tears for Democrats, who narrowly defeated Rep. Mike Garcia (CA-25) in his rematch with Christy Smith, gained the fast Democratic-trending GA-7 with Carolyn Bourdeaux, and gained two safe seats in the redrawn, fairer North Carolina map. One of their 2018 upsets, Joe Cunningham (SC-1), also managed to keep his seat. The best result for them came out of the Dallas suburbs- though Democrats missed many Texas seats they thought winnable and shockingly lost the Rio Grande Valley seat of TX-23 thought almost safe, Candace Valenzuela managed to defeat Beth Van Duyn in TX-24 by a fair margin. The biggest upset of the night came from TX-3 where U.S. Rep. Van Taylor, thought fairly safe, lost to Democrat Lulu Seikaly by a razor-thin margin of 11 votes in a fast-trending seat that voted for Biden by approximately 2%.

The other closest races were in NY-22, where Republican Claudia Tenney defeated Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 0.01%, or around 50 votes, IA-2, where Democrat Rita Hart kept the seat against Mariannette Miller-Meeks by around 400 votes, and CA-21, where former Rep. David Valadao regained his seat and ousted Rep. TJ Cox by 92 votes.

The 2020 Gubernatorial Elections



Republican Governorships- 27 ↑ (+1)
Democratic Governorships- 23 ↓ (-1)

Key Races:

Indiana 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
Governor Eric Holcomb (I)- 55.4% ✓
Executive Woody Myers- 31.8%
Veteran Donald Rainwater- 12.8%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Missouri 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
Governor Mike Parson (I)- 54.6% ✓
State Auditor Nicole Galloway- 43.3%
Others- 2.1%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Montana 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte- 52.4% ✓
Lt. Governor Mike Cooney- 44.1%
Others- 3.5%
REPUBLICAN PICKUP

New Hampshire 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
Governor Chris Sununu (I)- 60.1% ✓
State Senator Dan Fetus- 37.3%
Atlas Poster Darryl W. Perry- 2.6%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

North Carolina 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
Governor Roy Cooper (I)- 52.6% ✓
Lt. Governor Dan Forest- 46.1%
Others- 1.3%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Puerto Rico 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
Fmr. Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi (PNP)- 34.4% ✓
Mayor Carlos Delgado Altieri (PPD)- 31.9%
Attorney Alexandra Lúgaro (MVC)- 13.1%
Senator Juan Dalmau (PIP)- 12.9%
Dr. César Vazquez (PD)- 7.0
Engineer Eliezer Molina Pérez (Independent)- 0.7%
PNP HOLD (DEMOCRAT REPLACES REPUBLICAN)

Puerto Rico 2020 Statehood Referendum Results
Yes- 51.6% ✓
No- 45.2%
BlankInvalid- 3.2%
(Turnout: 57.3%)

Vermont 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
Governor Phil Scott (I)- 67.5% ✓
Lt. Governor David Zuckerman- 28.5%
Write-in- 4.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

In the Gubernatorial front, there wasn't much for Democrats to rejoice from. In New Hampshire, the popular Governor Chris Sununu won reelection easily, a worrying sign for Senator Maggie Hassan, up for reelection in 2022, who could face a strong candidate. Vermont reelected its own popular, moderate Republican, Phil Scott, easily too. In Indiana and Missouri, Democrats failed to make a dent despite a strong candidate in the latter. And in Montana, Lieutenant Governor Cooney couldn't hold the Governor's mansion against the controversial Congressman Greg Gianforte. Democrats did hold on to the North Carolina Governor's Mansion with Roy Cooper, and in Puerto Rico, the pro-Trump, pro-Statehood Governor will be replaced with a pro-Statehood Democrat-affiliated Governor instead. Possibly the biggest news is the solid victory for "yes" in the statehood referendum, possibly paving the way for a potential Democratic trifecta to make Puerto Rico a state.
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #8 on: March 28, 2021, 02:51:04 PM »

THE LULU DECADE!!
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #9 on: March 28, 2021, 05:13:16 PM »

What were the margins in CA-25, TX-24, and SC-1?
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2021, 05:11:51 PM »

What were the margins in CA-25, TX-24, and SC-1?

California's 25th District
State Assemblywoman Christy Smith- 50.3% ✓
U.S. Rep. Mike Garica (I)- 49.7%
Others- 0.0%
DEMOCRATIC GAIN

Texas' 24th District
Ms. Candace Valenzuela- 49.2% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Beth Van Duyne- 47.3%
Others- 3.5%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

South Carolina's 1st District
U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham (I)- 50.8 ✓
State Rep. Nancy Mace- 49.1%
Others- 0.1%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD
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« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2021, 05:32:57 PM »

What were the margins in CA-25, TX-24, and SC-1?

California's 25th District
State Assemblywoman Christy Smith- 50.3% ✓
U.S. Rep. Mike Garica (I)- 49.7%
Others- 0.0%
DEMOCRATIC GAIN

Texas' 24th District
Ms. Candace Valenzuela- 49.2% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Beth Van Duyne- 47.3%
Others- 3.5%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

South Carolina's 1st District
U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham (I)- 50.8 ✓
State Rep. Nancy Mace- 49.1%
Others- 0.1%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

What were the results in every house seat that flipped, both IRL and in this scenaro?
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« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2021, 08:38:38 AM »
« Edited: May 07, 2021, 06:39:48 AM by Parrotguy »

The Road to the Biden Presidency


The waning months of the Trump administration were among the most eventful, and would be very influential in the coming years. The defining feature of this short era was a stubborn and dangerous refusal by President Trump to accept the Presidential election's results. Baseless allegations of fraud were spread by the President and his closest supporters, with many mainstream Republican politicians such as Senator Marco Rubio giving indirect support by demanding the allegations be investigated. Other Republicans, such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, admitted that the allegations had no basis and urged their party to accept the results and move on.

But the GOP was Trump's party, and one big result of his hopeless campaign to remain President despite losing the election came at January 5th, when Republicans shockingly lost both Georgia Senate seats in the runoff elections. In the regular seat, a spectacular campaign and strong debate performances by Democrat Jon Ossoff, took down Senator David Perdue, considered the favourite, while in the Special Election Reverand Rephael Warnock took down the unpopular Senator Kelly Loeffler by an even stronger margin. Strong support from black voters and suburban liberals attracted by the Warnock and Ossoff candidacies, as well as missteps by the Republican candidates, contributed to the wins. However, many blamed President Donald Trump too, as his fraud allegations harmed Republicans and discouraged many of their voters from turning out.

Georgia 2020 Senate Election Results (Runoff)
Journalist Jon Ossoff- 51.0% ✓
Senator David Perdue (I)- 49.0%
DEMOCRATIC GAIN

Georgia 2020 Special Senate Election Results (Runoff)
Reverend Rephael Warnock- 51.8%% ✓
Senator Kelly Loeffler (I)- 48.2%
DEMOCRATIC GAIN

The dual victories in Georgia gave Democrats a 51-49 Senate Majority, rather comfortable though still dependant on two moderates- Senators Manchin (D-WV) and Sinema (D-AZ).

However, Democrats didn't have much time to celebrate- a day later, when Congress joined to certify the Presidential Election's results, the nation was struck in the heart with the 2021 Capiton Insurrection. Hundreds of Trump supporters, encouraged by the President, protested before the Capitol against the certification of the election results, with many managing to break into the Capitol building and vandalize it. Disaster was stopped by the combined efforts of some Capitol policemen, the Virginia and Maryland State Guards and the National Guard, which was called into action by Vice President Pence after Trump refused to do so or condemn his supporters. It was a moment of moral shock that the United States democracy didn't feel for many years.

But there was light too, despite that darkness. Due to his encouragement of the coup attempt, President Trump was faced with articles of impeachment. The impeachment trial in February had unprecedented bipartiasn support, with eight Republican Senators- Cassidy (R-LA), Collins (R-ME), Sasse (R-NE), Portman (R-OH), Burr (R-NC), Toomey (R-PA), Murkowski (R-AK) and Romney (R-UT) voting in favourite, but still fell 8 votes short of conviction and Trump was acquited. The final vote was 59-41 in favour of conviction.

Another piece of light were several vaccines for the Covid-19 epidemic being confirmed as very effective and green-lighted by the FDA and many international Ministries of Health- the Pfitzer and Moderna vaccines first, followed by the AstraZeneca and Johnson&Johnson vaccines. Many countries started vaccinating their populations, but while the British and especially the Israeli operations were going quickly and effectively, the European and American vaccination efforts seemed to crawl.

In January 20th, an important piece of light came with the end of the Trump Presidency. Joe Biden was inaugurated as the President of the United States, and Kamala Harris was inaugurated as the first woman Vice President.

After four years of populist fervour and an increasingly maddened political system, the question on many minds accross the globe was- will Biden be successful in righting the ship and bringing back trust in government and liberal democratic institutions? Is boring back?

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« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2021, 09:07:41 AM »

The Cabinet of Joe Biden


President of the United States: Joe Biden
Vice President of the United States: Kamala Harris

Chief of Staff: Ron Klain

Secratary of State: Antony Blinken (confirmed 78-22)
Secretary of the Treasury: Janet Yellen (confirmed 84-15)
Secretary of Defense: Lloyd Austin (confirmed 94-2)
Attorney General: Doug Jones (confirmed 80-20)
Secretary of the Interior: Deb Haaland (confirmed 52-39)
Secretary of Agriculture: Tom Vilsack (confirmed 92-7)
Secretary of Commerce: Gina Raimondo (confirmed 84-15)
Secretary of Labor: Marty Walsh (confirmed 68-29)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Xavier Becerra (confirmed 51-48)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Marcia Fudge (confirmed 67-33)
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (confirmed 86-13)
Secretary of Energy: Jennifer Granholm (confirmed 65-34)
Secretary of Education: Miguel Cardona (confirmed 64-33)
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Denis McDonough (confirmed 87-7)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Alejandro Mayorkas (confirmed 57-42)
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Michael Regan (confirmed 66-34)
Ambassador to the United Nations: Linda Thomas-Greenfield (confirmed 78-20)
Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Neera Tanden (confirmed 50-50)
Director of National Intelligence: Avril Haines (confirmed 85-10)
Trade Representative: Katherine Tai (confirmed 98-0)
Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors: Cecilia Rouse (confirmed 95-4)
Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Isabel Guzman (confirmed 81-17)
Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy: Eric Lander (confirmed 93-5)
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« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2021, 12:49:56 PM »

The State of Public Opinion in Key Countries
February 1st

U.S. President Joe Biden Approval (March 1st)
Approve- 62.3%
Disapprove- 32.1%
Unsure- 5.6%

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris Approval (March 1st)
Approve- 53.0%
Disapprove- 36.7%
Unsure- 10.3%

Generic Cogressional Ballot (March 1st)
Democratic Party Candidate- 50.6%
Republican Party Candidate- 40.9%
Undecided/Others- 8.5%



2021 Israeli Knesset Election (Polling)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 29 Seats
New Hope (Gideon Sa'ar)- 17 Seats
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 15 Seats
Yamina (Naftali Bennet)- 13 Seats
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 10 Seats
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 7 Seats
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 7 Seats
Labour (Merav Michaeli)- 6 Seats
Meretz (Nitzan Horovitz)- 5 Seats
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 4 Seats
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 0 Seats (2.3%)
Economic Party (Yaron Zalicha)- 0 Seats (2.3%)
Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben Gvir)- 0 Seats (2.0%)
Israelis (Ron Huldai)- 0 Seats 1.4%
Telem (Bogie Ya'alon)- 0 Seats 0.7%
Jewish Home (Hagit Moshe )- 0 Seats (0.4%)
Tnufa (Ofer Shelah)- 0 Seats 0.3%
Gesher (Orly Levy Abekasis)- 0 Seats (0.0%)



2021 Dutch Legislative Election (Polling)
VVD (RE)- 23%
PVV (ID)- 15%
CDA (EPP)- 11%
PvdA (S&D)- 10%
D66 (RE)- 7%
SP (EUL/NGL)- 6%
GL (G/EFA)- 6%
CU (EPP)- 4%
PvdD (EUL/NGL)- 4%
FvD (ECR)- 3%
Ja21 (ECR)- 2%
SGP (ECR)- 2%
DENK- 2%
50PLUS- 1%
Volt (G/EFA)- 1%
BIJ1- 1%
Others/Undecided- 2%



2021 German Federal Election (Polling)
CDU/CSU (EPP)- 35%
Grüne (G/EFA)- 19%
SPD (S&D)- 16%
AfD (ID)- 9%
Linke (EUL/NGL)- 7%
FDP (RE)- 7%
Others/Undecided- 7%



2022 French Presidential Election (Polling)
Emmanuel Macron (LREM)- 26%
Marine Le Pen (RN)- 25%
LR Candidate- 13%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI)- 10%
PS Candidate- 7%
Yannik Jadot (EELV)- 7%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF)- 6%
Others/Undecided- 6%



Next United Kingdom General Election (Polling)
Conservative Party (Borish Johnson)- 41%
Labour Party (Keir Starmer)- 38%
Liberal Democrats (Ed Davey)- 7%
Green Party (Jonathan Bartley & Siân Berry)- 5%
Scottish National Party (Nicola Sturgeon)- 4%
Others/Undecided- 5%
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« Reply #15 on: April 03, 2021, 03:40:29 PM »

March Elections- The Netherlands and Israel


Two elections held durin the month of March would have important consequences for their countries. The Dutch Election, held March 15-17, didn't result in many surprises- the ruling VVD party, led by Prime Minister Mark Rutte, won a comfortable plurality and will likely return to lead another coalition- making Rutte one of the longest-serving current leaders in Europe. The biggest surprise came in an overperformance of liberal, pro-EU centrist parties like Democrats 66, who become the second-largest party, and the Eurofederalist Volt. Left-wing parties like the Socialists and the Green-Left, and far-right parties like the Party for Freedom, underperformed. Another party that could find a silver-lining was the Labour Party, PvdA, who returned some of their strength after a horrible election in 2017 and regained their position as the largest left party.

2021 Dutch Legislative Election (Final Results)
VVD (RE)- 21.7% (+0.4)
D66 (RE)- 15.0% (+2.8)
PVV (ID)- 10.3% (-2.8)
CDA (EPP)- 9.1% (-3.3)
PvdA (S&D)- 9.1% (+3.4)
GL (G/EFA)- 6.0% (-3.1)
SP (EUL/NGL)- 4.4% (-4.7)
FvD (ECR)- 4.1 (+2.3)%
PvdD (EUL/NGL)- 3.7% (+0.5)
CU (EPP)- 3.2% (-0.2)
Volt (G/EFA)- 2.6% (new)
Ja21 (ECR)- 2.1% (new)
SGP (ECR)- 2.0% (-0.1)
DENK- 1.9% (-0.2)
50PLUS- 1.0% (-2.1)
BBB- 1.0% (new)
BIJ1- 0.8% (+0.5)
Others- 2.0%



The election results, while generally good for the Prime Minister, did put Rutte in a bit of a tough spot- his former coalition, consisting of VVD, D66, CDA and CU, has only a razor-thin majority of 76, which means he'd either have to bring in one of the center-left parties, PvdA or GL, or failing that, to replace his center-right CDA and CU partners with PvdA and GL, leading to a center-left coalition.



In the tumultuous and chaotic politics of Israel, the fifth election in the span of two years didn't end up with a decisive result that would promise and end to the constant election cycles and government instability.

Despite a successful vaccination effort and a downward trend in coronavirus cases, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc of potential supporters failed for the fourth time to attain a working majority. However, there seems no end in sight, as the opposing bloc of parties include both the Joint Arab List and Ra'am, whom right-wing anti-Netanyahu party New Hope refuses to sit in government with.

The election season itself was weird and full of twists, as befits Israeli politics. It started dramatically with Gideon Sa'ar, major Likud figure and Netanyahu rival, leaving his party and forming an independent list. He was joined by several disgruntled former Likud figures, current Likud MKs Michal Shir and Sharen Haskel who were Sa'ar allies, and a major former Netanyahu ally and Minister Ze'ev Elkin. The list surged to second place in the polls and seemed to pose a real threat to Netanyahu's Likud, though eventually it fell and lost many centrist supporters to Lapid's Yesh Atid and Gantz's Kahol Lavan (Blue & White).

This was followed by many tiny parties being formed by center-left leaders in bids to gain power in a future union and promote their path for beating the Prime Minister. Among those were:
- The Israelis, led by Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai, surging to 8-9 seats at its founding and after the joining of Justice Minister Avi Nissnkorn from Kahol Lavan and later declining due to a luckluster launch
- Telem, led by former Defense Minister Bogie Ya'alon who split with Lapid's Yesh Atid
- Tnufa, founded by MK Ofer Shelah from Yesh Atid who believed Lapid's leadership will lead the center-left nowhere
- The New Economic Party led by famous economist and anti-corruption activist Yaron Zalicha

But the center-left was again shaken up when MK Merav Michaeli from Labour, the only one of the three MKs in the party who refused to join the Netanyahu-Gantz government, won a shocking court case that forced the party to hold a leadership and list primary. Knowing their unpopularity, party leader and Economy Minister Amir Peretz and Welfare Minister Itzik Shmuli refused to run, leaving Michaeli to run against several no-names and become leader. Michaeli, a well-known feminist icon and very popular among the base, revived the dead party seemingly out of nowhere, and it went from polling at around 1% to passing the threshold and easily pulling 4-5 seats. After the party held its list primary, with many new and old figures joining the revived party, it surged to 6-8 seats in the polls and sunk Huldai's uninspiring Israelis. In the end, Michaeli refused to let any of the other parties merge with hers (only agreeing to give their leaders reserved seats on her list). The chicken game paid off, and she defeated the experienced men- Ya'alon, Shelah and Huldai all dropped out with their parties and cleared the fractured center-left field. Zalicha's Economic Party continued running, but he dropped out a week before the election.

On the right side, another shakeup happened when Yamina split between the more socially moderate faction led by Naftali Bennet and Ayelet Shaked and the far-right religious National Union faction led by Bezalel Smotrich. Renaming his party to "Religious Zionism", Smotrich ran independently. With great pressure and urging from Prime Minister Netanyahu, Religious Zionism united with the Kahanist far-right Jewish National Front (Otzma Yehudit), as well as the Noam Party, which was founded to oppose progressive causes like LGBTQ acceptance and gender equality and was controversial for extremely homophobic and transphobic campaigns.

Eventually, the election results were mixed for both sides. On the right, Likud was disappointed with losing as many as six seats (seven if counting the single Gesher Party seat after the defection of Orly Levy Abekasis to Likud). However, the right itself retained its strength, with Benet's Yamina finishing at a disappointing 7 seats and Smotrich's far-right party overperforming and winning 6 seats- which meant the representative of Noam, placed 6th, would enter the Knesset.

In the anti-Netanyahu bloc, some came out disappointed while others celebrated. Lapid's Yesh Atid, while expecting a result in the twenties, was satisfied with its position as the largest party in the bloc and saw it as a result of Lapid's careful maneuvers not to eat up too much into the voter base of Labour, Kahol Lavan and especially Meretz to ensure they all pass the threshold of 3.25%. Gantz's party, previously fighting for its life, achieved an impressive result of 7 seats which none of the polls gave him, while Meretz, considered in a grave danger before the election, passed the threshold comfortably and won 5 seats, probably due to a scare campaign warning center-left voters that if it didn't pass a Netanyahu-Kahanist government would emerge.

But the biggest victor was Labour- Michaeli led a party left for dead into a very impressive result of 9 seats, taking place as the third biggest party in Israel. This proved her value as a leader, though the real test of her leadership was still to come.

The biggest loser of the night was, without a doubt, the Joint List- a decrease in Arab turnout led them to a disappointing finish of 6 seats versus 15 in the last election. The Islamist splinter Ra'am, running alone to promote a more socially conservative and politically pragmatist agenda, still won 4 seats, but the Joint List lost 5 whole seats of Arab representation and came behind parties like Religious Zionism and Yisrael Beiteinu in the vote count.

2021 Israeli Knesset Election (Final Results)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 30 Seats (-7)
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 18 Seats (+2)
Labour Party (Merav Michaeli)- 9 Seats (+6)
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 8 Seats (-1)
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 7 Seats (-5)
Yamina (Naftali Bennet)- 7 Seats (+4)
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 7 Seats (+-0)
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats (+-0)
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 6 Seats (+4)
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 6 Seats (-5)
New Hope (Gideon Sa'ar)- 6 Seats (new)
Meretz (Nitzan Horovitz)- 5 Seats (+2)
Ra'am (Mansour Abbas)- 4 Seats (+-0)



Overall, the results signalled further stalemate- the parties who were potnetial partners for Prime Minister Netanyahu, Likud, Yamina, Shas, UTJ and Religious Zionism achieved a collective 58 seats, 3 short from a majority. The bloc of parties who explicitly promised not to join a Netanyahu government, branding itself "the Change Bloc" and consisting of Yesh Atid, Labour, Kahol Lavan, Yisrael Beiteinu, Joint List, New Hope and Meretz, also reached 58 seats. Breaking the tie was the Ra'am, who didn't rule out a coalition with any side, including the right wing. In a surreal turn of events, Israel's political fortune was in the hands of an Islamist party.

However, the Change Bloc had a unity problem- it consisted of left-wing Meretz and Labor and right-wing New Hope and Yisrael Beiteinu, and worse, New Hope explicitly promised not to sit in a government supported by either Ra'am or the Joint List. And on the other side, too, both Yamina and Religious Zionism promised not to agree to support from outside by Ra'am. New Hope and Religious Zionism forcefully reiterated the promise even after the election.

The political puzzle in Israel seemed unsolveable.



Note: As you can see, currently it feels like I'm narrating real life events. If you look closely, you'll notice some small changes, in line with the trend I set by changing one Senate race and a few House races in the U.S. Soon enoug, the divergence will start deepening.
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« Reply #16 on: April 14, 2021, 03:44:39 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2021, 02:11:16 PM by MS. MERAV MICHEALI »

Biden Administration- First 100 Days


The Biden administration got its start in the shadow of political, social, health and economic crises never seen in many years. However, while they served as a great challenge to the new government, they also presented an opportunity to transform the American economy and political system forever.

President Biden's first 100 days were eventful and packed with action. It started with a flurry of executive orders rescinding many controversial Trump policies such as ending the Muslim ban, returning to the Paris Agreement and World Health Organization, cancelling the Keystone Pipeline's, putting a moratorium on most deportations, enforcing LGBTQ protections, protecting DACA and blocking all last-minute Trump regulations.

The first item on the legislative agenda was a Covid-19 economic relief and stimulus bill called "the American Rescue Plan". Injecting nearly 2$ trillion into the economy, the bill had many different provisions that advanced progressive and Democratic priorities. Included in the bill were direct 1400$ checks sent to a population even wider than the ones eligible for the last round of 600$ checks by including adult dependents like college students; extended and expanded unemployment benefits until the end of September; and huge investments in federal, state and local education, transportation and vaccination efforts.

The plan was widely popular in the public, receiving 60-70% support in most polls. Despite that, Republican members of Congress all opposed it, and a group of Senators led by Susan Collins (R-ME) suggested a watered-down 600$ billion plan, which President Biden called a "do-nothing proposal", protesting that Republicans "all of a sudden" discovered deficits and fiscal restraint after passing "trillions in tax breaks for the rich". In the end Democrats decided to pass the plan without Republican support, though the negotiation was still tough due to two moderate Democratic Senators- Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ). The main blow to the original bill was the removal of the 15$ minimum wage increase due to inability to pass it via reconciliation and the opposition of Manchin and Sinema. Senator Manchin also opposed the extension of unemployment benefits to the end of September, but eventually after being presented by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) with the fact that the bill already had 50 supporters (with Sinema not joining his opposition), Manchin relented and voted with Democrats.

Thus the the bill was passed mostly along party lines- in the Senate, the final vote was a party-line 51-48 vote (Senator Sullivan of Alaska was absent) and in the House the final vote was 206-225 (Mike Bost from Illinois was absent and 3 seats were vacant), nearly party-line with all Republicans voting against it and Democrats Jared Golden (D-ME) and Brad Schneider (D-OR) voting with them against the rest of their Caucus.


Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Schumer ceremoniously signing the American Rescue Plan

The Biden administration did not stop there, though. The next big item on the agenda was supposed to serve as a complete transformation of the American economy- a big infraustracture bill, named "the Build Back Better Plan". It was a huge plan amounting for 4$ trillion spent over the span of eight years and was introduced in two parts. The first was the American Jobs Plan, and included massive investments in clean energy jobs, the fixing of roads and bridges throughout the country, modernization and improvement of public transportation and railways, improvement and maintenance of drinking water and electric facilities, workforce training, investment in U.S. manufacturing, funding for disabled and elderly care, the establishment of broadband in all rural areas and funding for housing and school facilities. The second part, dubbed the American Family Care Act, included child care funding, paid family and medical leave and healthcare investments. The plan would be paid for in a large part- 3.5$ trillion in corporate tax hikes that erase the 2017 Trump tax cuts, tax increases on top earners and the end of fossil fuel subsidies.

Though the infraustracture plan was larger and more ambitious than the covid-19 relief bill, the BBBA and the ARP were nonetheless both part of a larger agenda- what was dubbed by many in the media "Bidenomics". It was the combination of several economic viewpoints- an old-stype populist "invest in America" sort of politics advanced by Biden for years; a keynesian view that government spending would strengthen the economy and raise standards of life; and a modern progressive focus on lifting up women and minorities and combatting climate change.

The plan's passage through Congress was more contentious and hard-fought than the coronavirus relief package. A group of House Democrats demanded and got the raising of SALT caps, and to the insistence of Senator Sinema some of the tax increases and the healthcare investments were removed. But in the end, one key factor helped the Biden plan- infraustracture was a widely-popular topic, and even though the GOP attempted to frame the plan as "fake infraustracture" the narrative did not take off. One key ally for Biden in this fight was Senator Manchin (D-WV), who was very supportive of a massive infraustracture plan and called the Republican position, a far thinner plan, "unreasonable". Even though it took some effort for Manchin to agree to the provisions in the second half of the bill, in the end he supported the joint bill.

The Build Back Better Act, incorporating both halves of the plan, passed through reconciliation during late June and was signed into law by President Biden at July 7th, independence day. The Senate vote was a party-line 51-49, and the House vote was similar to the ARP vote, with a few more defections- 211-222 in favour of the bill, with all Republicans opposing and two vacant seats created by the seats of HUD Secretary Fudge and deceased Rep. Hastings (D-FL). The only Democrats voting against the plan were Brad Schneider (D-OR), Ben McAdams (D-UT), Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) and Henry Cueller (D-TX).


President Biden Signs the Build Back Better Act

Aside from the flurry of executive orders and the two large economic bills, the first stage of Biden's first term in office included many other actions such as the announcement of a full withdrawal from Afghanistan by 9\11\21, the beginning of indirect negotiations for a new deal with Iran, the return of aid to the Palestinian Authority, the nomination of many judges, new executive orders promoting gun safety and more. As vaccination efforts turned from a crawl to a resounding success, the nation began to open up safely and the economy started to improve again, the President's popularity remained high.

All the while, the Republican Party focused on cultural issues such as "cancel-culture" and a perceived immigration crisis at the southern border. It wasn't clear that this would have success in countering the President's meterial accomplishments. Biden's success at passing two huge economic bills that transformed America's economy seemed to signal the beginning of a new era- the end of the Reagenist "each for their own" mindset and the return to a robust government that supports a tough safety net and invests in the economy. Biden's administration was remarkably boring, but its actions thus far had been transformational.

However, possibly the most important fight of the Biden administration was still looming. The Republican Party had turned its focus in recent years from fiscal and even social issues to the goal of preserving its hold on Congress and the Courts through en-masse gerrymandering and voting restrictions. The Democrats were advancing H.R. 1, For the People Act, a bill with the goal to shore up election security and voting rights and, importantly, ban the practice of gerrymandering for congressional districts. Republicans, unsurprisingly, strongly opposed the bill, but many Democrats saw it as a precious chance to create a fair and equal democratic process. However, while it passed the House on party lines, the Senate's filibuster rules would prevent its passage there without substantial Republican support. The next fight for the Biden administration, and the hardest so far, both inside and outside the Democratic Party, was on this issue.

U.S. President Joe Biden Approval (July 7th)
Approve- 55.6%
Disapprove- 40.1%
Unsure- 4.3%

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris Approval (July 7th)
Approve- 50.3%
Disapprove- 42.0%
Unsure- 7.7%

Generic Cogressional Ballot (July 7th)
Democratic Party Candidate- 48.7%
Republican Party Candidate- 43.4%
Undecided/Others- 7.9%
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« Reply #17 on: April 25, 2021, 06:43:32 PM »

WOOOOOOO UT-4 STAYS DEMOCRATIC




BEN MCADAMS FOREVEREEEEERRRRRRRRRRR
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2021, 02:09:25 PM »

This isn't dead, btw. I've already wrote several of the future posts, but I'm waiting for current developments in Israel. Upcoming posts: the culmination of the Israeli coalition talks, developments in the U.S. regarding the filibuster and H.R.1, and German 2021 federal elections. We're gonna start diverging more and more from OTL with each post.
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« Reply #19 on: May 17, 2021, 02:25:04 PM »

Isn't the point of a timeline that things change?
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« Reply #20 on: May 17, 2021, 09:09:19 PM »


Yes, but I want to start with minor changes and diverge gradually.
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« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2021, 09:19:37 PM »

Bump
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theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2021, 02:34:48 PM »

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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #23 on: September 02, 2021, 02:06:25 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2021, 11:55:49 AM by MS. MERAV MICHEALI »


BREAKING NEWS: Netanyahu foes strike coalition deal to form government, ending long Bibi era in Israel
The new government will consist of Yesh Atid, Yamina, Labor, Blue & White, Yisrael Beiteinu, New Hope, Meretz and Ra'am; Meet the new leaders of Israel- Prime Minister Naftali Bennet and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid



The new governing duo of Israel, Naftali Bennet and Yair Lapid

13/6/2021

TEL AVIV - Riki's face is glistening with tears. She's been crying, but her expression is happy. "We've been waiting for this for years," she says. "I've been scared for my country. Now that he's gone, we can start anew." She lives in Rishon Lezion, a city near Tel Aviv, but is a regular participant in the countless anti-Netanyahu protests held in Jerusalem, near the iconic Balfour Street Prime Minister's residence. The protest movement was a major driving force behind the Israeli opposition to "King Bibi", fueling the urgency around the removal of the Prime Minister as the number 1 goal of the opposition. Now, despite crowning a politician to Netanyahu's right, the protestors are ecstatic.

Miriam isn't shedding any tears, but neither is she happy with the recent development. "We're making a big mistake," she warns, "Bibi is a leader. He had great ties with the world, he knew how to manage the economy, and he knew how to protect us from our enemies. Now, we don't know what will happen. I remember what happened the last time the left was in power, God save us." Miriam hails from Sderot, the city closest to Gaza that suffered many Hamas rockets during Netanyahu's many years in office but still votes for him by a decisive margin like many other periphery cities.

Riki and Miriam represent the great divide of Israeli politics the past few years- fans of Netanyahu who don't see an alternative to his leadership, and bitter opponents from the left, center and right who view him as a threat to democracy. Now that he won't be named Prime Minister for the first time in over a decade, will the country be able to move on? It's unclear.

Netanyahu, just yesterday, vowed to remain Opposition Leader in the Knesset. His Likud ally, former Coalition Chair Miki Zohar, said that Netanyahu would "make life hell" for the new government.

But while he looms large, Netanyahu also serves as the glue for a very unnatural coalition consisting of two right-wing parties, three centrist parties, two left wing parties and an Islamist party. In order to secure a government, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid had to compromise on a lot and introduce odd mechanisms. For one, he'd be the leader of the largest party in the government, but for its first two years, the 7-seat (6 after the defection of MK Amitai Chikli) Yamina leader Naftali Bennet will serve as Prime Minister. Additionally, the government will put a freeze on issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and judiciary reform.

But despite seemingly impossible odds, some Israelis are expecting the new government to last. "Both sides have an interest to maintain it," says Dani Dayan, former Israeli Consul to New York and member of Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope party. "Bennet wants to remain Prime Minister for his whole two years to present accomplishments to the base, and Lapid wants to get to his own two years. Gideon is a man of his word, and he won't let any side get away with dirty tricks."

If the government can agree on a two-year budget twice, it would guarantee its survival barring a successful motion of no confidence. And with a possible cushion of support from the Joint Arab List's 6 seats should Bennet decide to bail after two years, Lapid, a longtime Netanyahu opponent who compromised again and again and played a long game, might finally become Prime Minister.

"Everyone thought it impossible, including me." Ofer Shelah, a former MK and Lapid ally turned rival, tells us. "But I think he did it."


Israel's 36th Government

Coalition: Yesh Atid (17), Labor (9), Kahol Lavan (7), Yisrael Beiteinu (7), Yamina (6), New Hope (6), Meretz (5), Ra'am (4)
Total: 62 Seats


Prime Minister: Naftali Bennet (Yamina) 2 years, Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) 2 years
Foreign Minister and Replacement Prime Minister: Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) 2 years, Naftali Bennet (Yamina) 2 years
Defense Minister: Benny Gantz (Kahol Lavan)
Finance Minister: Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Justice Minister: Gideon Sa'ar (New Hope)
Home Minister: Merav Michaeli (Labor)
Education Minister: Yifat Shasha Biton (New Hope)
Economy and Industry Minister: Ayelet Shaked (New Right)
Internal Security Minister: Omer Bar Lev (Labor)
Health Minister: Nitzan Horovitz (Meretz)
Transportation Minister: Orna Barbivai (Yesh Atid)
Construction and Housing Minister: Ze'ev Elkin (New Hope)
Labor and Welfare Minister: Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid)
Energy and Water Minister: Karin Elharar (Yesh Atid)
Communications and Media Minister: Yoaz Hendel (New Hope)
Agriculture Minister: Oded Forer (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Environmental Protection Minister: Tamar Zandberg (Meretz)
Immigration and Integration Minister: Pnina Tamano-Shata (Kahol Lavan)
Regional Cooperation Minister: Isawi Farij (Meretz)
Culture and Sports Minister: Hili Trooper (Kahol Lavan)
Tourism Minister: Yoel Razvozov (Yesh Atid)
Science and Technology Minister: Orit Farkash-Hacohen (Kahol Lavan)
Intelligence Minister: Elazar Stern (Yesh Atid)
Social Equality Minister: Merav Cohen (Yesh Atid)
Diaspora Minister: Nachman Shai (Labor)
Religious Affairs Minister: Matan Kahana (Yamina)
Minister in the Finance Ministry: Hamad Amar (Yisrael Beiteinu)

Deputy Foreign Minister: Idan Roll (Yesh Atid)
Deputy Defense Minister: Alon Shuster (Kahol Lavan)
Deputy Internal Security Minister: Yoav Segalovich (Yesh Atid)
Deputy Economy Minister: Yair Golan (Meretz)
Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister's Office: Abir Kara (New Right)

Speaker of the Knesset: Mickey Levi (Yesh Atid)
Coalition Chair: Idit Silman (Yamina)
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chair: Ram Ben Barak (Yesh Atid)
Finance Committee Chair: Alex Kushnir (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Internal Affairs and Environmental Protection Committee Chair: Said al-Harumi (Ra'am)
Constitution, Law and Justice Committee Chair: Gilad Kariv (Labor)
Education, Culture and Sports Committee Chair: Sharen Haskel (New Hope)
Economy Committee Chair: Michael Biton (Kahol Lavan)
Labor, Welfare and Healthcare Committee Chair: Efrat Rayten (Labor)
Special Committee for Arab Affairs Chair: Mansour Abbas (Ra'am)
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2021, 12:03:36 PM »

As you can see, Boring is Back is back! Hope you enjoy!
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