Boring is Back

[America Needs R'hllor]

"And we can now officially call the 2020 Presidential Election for former Vice President Joe Biden!"

"Indeed, Wolf, we can officially project that Joe Biden will get more than the 270 electoral votes required to win the Presidential election."

"Let us now go to the Biden campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Delaware as President-elect Biden addresses a small, socially-distanced, masked but enthusiastic crowd of supporters..."

"Folks, we did it! Me and Jill couldn't be more grateful to each and every one of you, this victory is yours! There is light at the end of the tunnel- America is back!"

Boring is Back
A Tale of the 2020s and Beyond

[America Needs R'hllor]

A few notes:
- Some of you might remember this exact same TL from me. I'm relaunching it with some changes and a fresh start.

- This project is meant to be an overview of roughly, realistically, how I'd like the world to look in the coming decades. It won't be eternal left-wing rule or something like that, though. It starts with some slight changes to our timeline, ie some different results in the American and Israeli elections, but diverges more and more with time.

- It will focus mostly on American and Israeli politics, but touch upon different countries accorss the globe (for example, the Dutch and German elections will definitely be covered in the timeline's 2021)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Livni

Source: Flickr

November 6th, 2020

Former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni opened the newspaper with a slight smile. It was Yediot Ahronot, Israel's most widespread newspaper, and it had a huge frontpage picture of Joe and Jill Biden raising each other's hand in triumph as confetti falls from above. The headline said simply "הנשיא ביידן", "PRESIDENT BIDEN". Below, in the secondary headline, was a sentence that made her smile a bit wider. "תם עידן טראמפ- הבוחרים האמריקנים העניקו לביידן ניצחון ברור". "The Trump era is over- the American voters gave Biden a clear victory". Another section of the frontpage advertised a piece about Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, the first woman Vice President.

At least the Americans would be able to enjoy some peace and calm, she thought. She couldn't say the same about her own country. The past couple years have been nothing but chaotic- three elections, ending with an embarrassing bending of the center-left bloc with Benny Gantz, the leader of the centrist Blue & White, splitting from Yesh Atid's Yair Lapid and joining Netanyahu's government. The last hope to replace Netanyahu was shattered, and all thanks to three Members of Knesset (MKs) who refused to agree to a government supported by the Arab Joint List from outside.

The new government was incredibly dysfunctional, characterized by constant attempts from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and "replacement Prime Minister" Benny Gantz to thwart each other. The government's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic was an unmitigated disaster- no plan, no long-term thought. A recent lockdown brought the numbers down, but at a great economic cost, and it seemed inevitable that a third lockdown will be needed. Throughout the past months, a huge protest wave started against Netanhyahu and his government, and the Prime Minister had been doing nothing but trying to incite against protestors and suppress them. And the government was constantly at the brink of collapse, as Netanyahu broke the agreement and refused to pass a two-year budget that would ensure the rotation agreement with Gantz. It was clear that the government's days were very numbered.

The coming end of that government didn't reassure her, because the political landscape was just turning against them. Running from the right of Netanyahu's Likud and presenting a coherent and praised plan to handle the epidemic, Yamina leader Naftali Bennet had been surging in the polls, his party polling second to Likud. He tried to appeal to a liberal audience, while running on the same list with Bezalel Smotrich, the worst homophobe and transphobe in the Knesset, and his National Union religious party.

The center-left was in shambles. Yesh Atid, the anti-Netanyahu centrists led by Lapid, were been stuck in mid-teens of Knesset seats. Blue & White, lead by Gantz, were struggling to reach 10 seats. The left-wing Meretz, despite remaining the only viable left-wing party in the country, were stuck in their usual numbers between 4 to 8 seats. Instead, the new stars of the anti-Bibi bloc were Bennet, who she knew would eventually support Netanyahu like he always did, and Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of Yisrael Beiteinu, in the past presenting as a right-wing hawkish party and now trying to show a civic liberal face.

But it wasn't her problem to handle now. She was out of politics, for good. She waded through that mud enough. And yet... people had been calling her, for years now, asking her to come back. She's among the last leaders on the center-left who's both very experienced in government and principled. She was a woman, for a change. She wasn't seen as radical, and she was respected across the world from her days as Foreign Minister. But there was no point in giving that any thought- there was just no space for her in the current political climate.

Positive thoughts! No negativity, she had to remind herself again. Trump was gone! Biden would be President of the United States! Now it was time for anyone left of the center to be happy, not to stress themselves out.

Next Israeli Knesset Election (Polling)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 28 Seats
Yamina (Naftali Bennet)- 22 Seats
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 17 Seats
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 13 Seats
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 10 Seats
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 8 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 8 Seats
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats
Meretz (Nitzan Horovitz)- 7 Seats
Labour (Amir Peretz)- 0 Seats
Jewish Home (Rafi Peretz)- 0 Seats
Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben Gvir)- 0 Seats
Gesher (Orly Levy Abekasis)- 0 Seats
Derekh Eretz (Yoaz Hendel & Zvi Hauser)- 0 Seats

Coming next: results of the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election

[America Needs R'hllor]

Special Report: Final Results of the 2020 General Election
Part I- The Presidential Election


Source: Flickr

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Two days after the election and with sufficient amount of the vote in key states in, we could project that America chose Joe Biden as its next President, rejecting the Presidency of Donald Trump.

After tumultous four years characterized by failure to pass healthcare reform, strict immigration policies, increasing racial tensions, the emboldening of white supremacists, broken agreements with allies and enemies abroad and finally, a catastrophic handling of a global pandemic, the Trump Presidency is set to be over in late January.

The Republican Party faced mixed results. Results in the House of Representatives showed a net gain for the GOP despite the national Democratic victory, with a number of seats exchanging hands on both sides. The Senate's fate is uncertain, and will be decided by the November runoffs in Georgia.

President Trump refused to concede the election, baselessly alleging widespread fraud and pointing to his leads in various states before mail and absentee ballots tipped the balance in Biden's favour. This led many members of the President's party to join him and call for investigations and recounts. It remains to be seen if he will eventually conceded or continue the baseless fraud allegations.

With the final results counted and certified, we will bring to you detailed results of the Presidential race and key federal and local races.

The 2020 Presidential Election



Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 52.4%, 321 Electoral Votes ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 45.8%, 217 Electoral Votes
Dr. Jo Jorgensen (L-SC)\Activist Spike Cohen (L-MD)- 1.2%, 0 Electoral Votes
Activist Howie Hawkins (G-NY)\Activist Angela Nicole Walker (G-WI)- 0.2%, 0 Electoral Votes
Others- 0.4%

Key States:

Alaska 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 52.1% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 43.7%
Others- 4.2%

Arizona 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 50.2% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 48.5%
Others- 1.3%

Colorado 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 56.1% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 41.6%
Others- 2.3%

Florida 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 50.4% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 48.8%
Others- 0.8%

Georgia 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 49.7% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 49.1%
Others- 1.2%

Iowa 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 52.4% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 45.6%
Others- 2.0%

Kansas 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 54.5% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 43.1%
Others- 2.4%

Maine 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 54.7% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 42.3%
Others- 3.0%

Maine 1st Congressional District 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 61.1% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 35.7%
Others- 3.2%

Maine 2nd Congressional District 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 51.7% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 45.6%
Others- 2.7%

Michigan 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 51.8% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 47.0%
Others- 1.2%

Minnesota 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 53.4% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 45.0%
Others- 1.6%

Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 53.2% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 44.7%
Others- 2.1%

Nevada 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 50.8% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 46.9%
Others- 2.3%

New Hampshire 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 54.4% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 43.7%
Others- 1.9%

New Mexico 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 55.7% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 42.3%
Others- 2.0%

North Carolina 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 49.38% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 49.32%
Others- 1.30%

Ohio 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 52.1% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 46.4%
Others- 1.5%

Pennsylvania 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 50.9% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 48.1%
Others- 1.0%

Texas 2020 Presidential Election Results
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 51.3% ✓
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 47.5%
Others- 1.2%

Virginia 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 55.8% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 43.1%
Others- 1.1%

Wisconsin 2020 Presidential Election Results
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)\Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 49.9% ✓
President Donald Trump (R-FL)\Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)- 48.5%
Others- 1.6%

In the end, Joe Biden won despite close calls in severalkey states. He took most competitive states in the Midwest, with the exceptions of Ohio and Iowa, which went for Donald Trump by larger than expected margins (albeit closer than in 2016), thus showing their rightward trend is here to stay and breaking Ohio's long streak of voting for the Presidential winner. While Trump overperformed polling in Midwestern states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin (but not Minnesota), losing by relatively narrow margins, Biden overperformed in Arizona and Georgia, where he managed surprising upset victories. The closest state was North Carolina, where Biden snatched a very narrow win due to a surge in black turnout and a successful Senate campaign by State Senator Jeff Jackson.

On the other hand, Florida and Texas came as disappointments, with a big story of the night being a surge of Hispanic voters turning out for the Republican Presidential and local candidates. Those seemed to be not only Cuban voters, who turned on Democrats en-masse, but also non-voters with conservative values, many of whom were influenced by a surge of far-right propaganda in Spanish-speaking media. With the President toning down his rhetoric on Hispanic immigrants and focusing on Black Lives Matter, and with the QAnon conspiracy theory taking hold of far-right movements, it seemed many of these voters felt able to vote for President Trump, who opened his campaign in 2015 with describing Mexican immigrants as "criminals and rapists".

For now, despite worrisome future trends, Democrats can be happy with the knowledge that they won the election. The challenge of governing will come soon.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Special Report: Final Results of the 2020 General Election
Part II- The Federal & Local Races


Source: Flickr

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Despite a decisive victory for their Biden-Harris ticket, Democrats got mixed results for the congressional elections. In the Senate, Democrats picked up only three seats while Republicans picked up the one in Alabama, leading to a 49-49 balance. Senate control will be decided in the January runoffs for the two Georgia Senate races, which historically lean Republican in their turnout. Democrats need to pick up just one of the seats in order to gain a majority with Vice President-elect Harris present to break ties. We will now go over the key races and their results.

The 2020 Senate Elections



Senate Balance

The Democratic Caucus- 49 Seats ↑ (+2)
Democrats- 47 Seats
Democratic-Caucusing Independents- 2 Seats

The Republican Caucus- 49 Seats ↓ (-2)
Republicans- 49 Seats

Headed to Runoff- 2 Seats

Key Races:

Alabama 2020 Senate Election Results
Former Coach Tommy Tuberville- 54.7% ✓
Senator Doug Jones (I)- 45.3%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN PICKUP

Alaska 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Dan Sullivan (I)- 51.9% ✓
Dr. Al Gross- 43.7%
Others- 4.4%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Arizona 2020 Senate Election Results
Astronaut Mike Kelly- 52.8% ✓
Senator Martha McSally (I)- 47.2%
Others- 0.0%
DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Arkansas 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Tom Cotton (I)- 62.3% ✓
Mr. Ricky Dale Harrington, Jr.- 36.7%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Colorado 2020 Senate Election Results
Fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper- 53.6% ✓
Senator Cory Gardener (I)- 44.0%
Others- 2.4%
DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Georgia 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator David Perdue (I)- 49.2% ✓
Journalist Jon Ossoff- 48.7% ✓
Mr. Shane Hazel- 2.1%
Others- 0.0%
HEADED TO RUNOFF

Georgia 2020 Special Senate Election Results
Reverend Rephael Warnock- 35.5%% ✓
Senator Kelly Loeffler (I)- 23.3% ✓
U.S. Rep. Doug Collins- 18.9%
Fmr. Mayor Deborah Jackson- 7.1%
Businessman Matt Lieberman- 2.3%
Others- 12.9%
HEADED TO RUNOFF

Iowa 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Joni Ernst (I)- 50.4% ✓
Businesswoman Theresa Greenfield- 46.8%
Others- 2.8%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Kansas 2020 Senate Election Results
U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall- 51.7% ✓
State Senator Barbara Bollier- 44.4%
Others- 3.9%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Kentucky 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Mitch McConnell (I)- 56.3% ✓
Veteran Amy McGrath- 39.6%
Others- 4.1%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Louisiana 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Bill Cassidy (I)- 58.3% ✓
Mayor Adrian Perkins- 22.1%
Others- 19.6%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Maine 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Susan Collins (I)- 50.2% ✓
Speaker Sara Gideon- 43.3%
Teacher Lisa Savage- 4.8%
Mr. Max Linn- 1.7%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Michigan 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Gary Peters (I)- 50.6% ✓
Businessman John James- 48.1%
Others- 1.3%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Minnesota 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Tina Smith (I)- 50.6% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Jason Lewis- 43.1%
Marijuana Sickos- 6.3%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Mississippi 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Cindy Hyde Smith (I)- 53.6% ✓
Fmr. Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy- 44.5%
Others- 1.9%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Montana 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Steve Daines (I)- 53.0% ✓
Governor Steve Bullock- 47.0%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

New Hampshire 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Jeanne Shaheen (I)- 57.2% ✓
Attorney Bryant "Corky" Messner- 40.6%
Others- 2.2%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

North Carolina 2020 Senate Election Results
State Senator Jeff Jackson- 49.2% ✓
Senator Thom Tillis (I)- 46.6%
Others- 4.2%
DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

South Carolina 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Lindsey Graham (I)- 52.9% ✓
State Party Chair Jaime Harrison- 45.4%
Mr. Bill Bledsoe- 1.7%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Texas 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator John Cornyn (I)- 51.9% ✓
Veteran M.J. Hegar- 45.6%
Others- 2.5%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Virginia 2020 Senate Election Results
Senator Mark Warner (I)- 56.4% ✓
Veteran Daniel Gade- 43.6%
Others- 0.0%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Many Democrats were fairly disappointed in the results. Several races in red states thought winnable, like Montana, South Carolina and Alaska, didn't come close. And they missed one key race they thought was nearly guaranteed- Maine, where the mdoerate brand of Senator Collins proved the better of Democrat Sarah Gideon. However, the focus is now on Georgia, where Rephael Warnock and Jon Ossoff will try to hold onto the Biden coalition and turn it out once again in the January runoff against Senators Perdue and Loeffler. The special election is considered tough for Democrats due to the need to turn out their base after the general election, but Ossoff and Warnock will attempt to combine their appeal to young liberals and black Americans to create a strong enough turnout and win together.

In the lower chamber of Congress, Democrats found many disappointments as well, as despite the many seats they were contesting in an offensive, they actually had a net loss of seats and lost several members elected in 2018. This was considered a result of  Trump being on the ballot, and the many voters he turned out, especially the new Hispanic voters who dealt Democrats several disappointments in Texas. However, Democrats did secure a fairly solid majority (though with some very narrow margins). This was done thanks to poor recruitment by Republicans in Trump-voting seats, a continuation of the pro-Democratic trends in suburban districts, enthusiasm that allowed candidates to fundraise large numbers, and a new, more balanced map in North Carolina.

House Balance



The Democratic Caucus- 228 Seats ↓ (-7)
The Republican Caucus- 207 Seats ↑ (+8)

Democrats, expecting a gain in the House coming into the election, came out with some bruising defeats. They couldn't gain or hold onto some historically Republican suburban seats that trended towards them, and lost a few of their 2018 freshmen. In MN-7, longtime Representative Collin Peterson finally lost to Republican Michelle Fischbach. Xochitl Torres Small (NM-2) and Kendra Horn (OK-5), considered upset winners in 2018, lost to their Republican opponents, while in IA-1 the young Rep. Abby Finkenauer lost to Republican Ashley Hinson. In California, Democrats lost two suburban seats- CA-39 and CA-48 where, respectively, Gil Cisenros and Harley Rouda lost their seats to Young Kim and Michelle Steele. And Max Rose lost his Staten Island-based seat to Nicole Malliotakis. Florida came as a special disappointment, with Cuban voters turning against the Demcorats leading to the loss of the Miami-based Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in FL-26 and Donna Shalala in FL-27.

However, it was not all tears for Democrats, who narrowly defeated Rep. Mike Garcia (CA-25) in his rematch with Christy Smith, gained the fast Democratic-trending GA-7 with Carolyn Bourdeaux, and gained two safe seats in the redrawn, fairer North Carolina map. One of their 2018 upsets, Joe Cunningham (SC-1), also managed to keep his seat. The best result for them came out of the Dallas suburbs- though Democrats missed many Texas seats they thought winnable and shockingly lost the Rio Grande Valley seat of TX-23 thought almost safe, Candace Valenzuela managed to defeat Beth Van Duyn in TX-24 by a fair margin. The biggest upset of the night came from TX-3 where U.S. Rep. Van Taylor, thought fairly safe, lost to Democrat Lulu Seikaly by a razor-thin margin of 11 votes in a fast-trending seat that voted for Biden by approximately 2%.

The other closest races were in NY-22, where Republican Claudia Tenney defeated Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi by 0.01%, or around 50 votes, IA-2, where Democrat Rita Hart kept the seat against Mariannette Miller-Meeks by around 400 votes, and CA-21, where former Rep. David Valadao regained his seat and ousted Rep. TJ Cox by 92 votes.

The 2020 Gubernatorial Elections



Republican Governorships- 27 ↑ (+1)
Democratic Governorships- 23 ↓ (-1)

Key Races:

Indiana 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
Governor Eric Holcomb (I)- 55.4% ✓
Executive Woody Myers- 31.8%
Veteran Donald Rainwater- 12.8%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Missouri 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
Governor Mike Parson (I)- 54.6% ✓
State Auditor Nicole Galloway- 43.3%
Others- 2.1%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

Montana 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte- 52.4% ✓
Lt. Governor Mike Cooney- 44.1%
Others- 3.5%
REPUBLICAN PICKUP

New Hampshire 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
Governor Chris Sununu (I)- 60.1% ✓
State Senator Dan Fetus- 37.3%
Atlas Poster Darryl W. Perry- 2.6%
Others- 0.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

North Carolina 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
Governor Roy Cooper (I)- 52.6% ✓
Lt. Governor Dan Forest- 46.1%
Others- 1.3%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

Puerto Rico 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
Fmr. Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi (PNP)- 34.4% ✓
Mayor Carlos Delgado Altieri (PPD)- 31.9%
Attorney Alexandra Lúgaro (MVC)- 13.1%
Senator Juan Dalmau (PIP)- 12.9%
Dr. César Vazquez (PD)- 7.0
Engineer Eliezer Molina Pérez (Independent)- 0.7%
PNP HOLD (DEMOCRAT REPLACES REPUBLICAN)

Puerto Rico 2020 Statehood Referendum Results
Yes- 51.6% ✓
No- 45.2%
BlankInvalid- 3.2%
(Turnout: 57.3%)

Vermont 2020 Gubernatorial Election Results
Governor Phil Scott (I)- 67.5% ✓
Lt. Governor David Zuckerman- 28.5%
Write-in- 4.0%
REPUBLICAN HOLD

In the Gubernatorial front, there wasn't much for Democrats to rejoice from. In New Hampshire, the popular Governor Chris Sununu won reelection easily, a worrying sign for Senator Maggie Hassan, up for reelection in 2022, who could face a strong candidate. Vermont reelected its own popular, moderate Republican, Phil Scott, easily too. In Indiana and Missouri, Democrats failed to make a dent despite a strong candidate in the latter. And in Montana, Lieutenant Governor Cooney couldn't hold the Governor's mansion against the controversial Congressman Greg Gianforte. Democrats did hold on to the North Carolina Governor's Mansion with Roy Cooper, and in Puerto Rico, the pro-Trump, pro-Statehood Governor will be replaced with a pro-Statehood Democrat-affiliated Governor instead. Possibly the biggest news is the solid victory for "yes" in the statehood referendum, possibly paving the way for a potential Democratic trifecta to make Puerto Rico a state.

[America Needs R'hllor]

What were the margins in CA-25, TX-24, and SC-1?

California's 25th District
State Assemblywoman Christy Smith- 50.3% ✓
U.S. Rep. Mike Garica (I)- 49.7%
Others- 0.0%
DEMOCRATIC GAIN

Texas' 24th District
Ms. Candace Valenzuela- 49.2% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Beth Van Duyne- 47.3%
Others- 3.5%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

South Carolina's 1st District
U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham (I)- 50.8 ✓
State Rep. Nancy Mace- 49.1%
Others- 0.1%
DEMOCRATIC HOLD

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Road to the Biden Presidency

The waning months of the Trump administration were among the most eventful, and would be very influential in the coming years. The defining feature of this short era was a stubborn and dangerous refusal by President Trump to accept the Presidential election's results. Baseless allegations of fraud were spread by the President and his closest supporters, with many mainstream Republican politicians such as Senator Marco Rubio giving indirect support by demanding the allegations be investigated. Other Republicans, such as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, admitted that the allegations had no basis and urged their party to accept the results and move on.

But the GOP was Trump's party, and one big result of his hopeless campaign to remain President despite losing the election came at January 5th, when Republicans shockingly lost both Georgia Senate seats in the runoff elections. In the regular seat, a spectacular campaign and strong debate performances by Democrat Jon Ossoff, took down Senator David Perdue, considered the favourite, while in the Special Election Reverand Rephael Warnock took down the unpopular Senator Kelly Loeffler by an even stronger margin. Strong support from black voters and suburban liberals attracted by the Warnock and Ossoff candidacies, as well as missteps by the Republican candidates, contributed to the wins. However, many blamed President Donald Trump too, as his fraud allegations harmed Republicans and discouraged many of their voters from turning out.

Georgia 2020 Senate Election Results (Runoff)
Journalist Jon Ossoff- 51.0% ✓
Senator David Perdue (I)- 49.0%
DEMOCRATIC GAIN

Georgia 2020 Special Senate Election Results (Runoff)
Reverend Rephael Warnock- 51.8%% ✓
Senator Kelly Loeffler (I)- 48.2%
DEMOCRATIC GAIN

The dual victories in Georgia gave Democrats a 51-49 Senate Majority, rather comfortable though still dependant on two moderates- Senators Manchin (D-WV) and Sinema (D-AZ).

However, Democrats didn't have much time to celebrate- a day later, when Congress joined to certify the Presidential Election's results, the nation was struck in the heart with the 2021 Capiton Insurrection. Hundreds of Trump supporters, encouraged by the President, protested before the Capitol against the certification of the election results, with many managing to break into the Capitol building and vandalize it. Disaster was stopped by the combined efforts of some Capitol policemen, the Virginia and Maryland State Guards and the National Guard, which was called into action by Vice President Pence after Trump refused to do so or condemn his supporters. It was a moment of moral shock that the United States democracy didn't feel for many years.

But there was light too, despite that darkness. Due to his encouragement of the coup attempt, President Trump was faced with articles of impeachment. The impeachment trial in February had unprecedented bipartiasn support, with eight Republican Senators- Cassidy (R-LA), Collins (R-ME), Sasse (R-NE), Portman (R-OH), Burr (R-NC), Toomey (R-PA), Murkowski (R-AK) and Romney (R-UT) voting in favourite, but still fell 8 votes short of conviction and Trump was acquited. The final vote was 59-41 in favour of conviction.

Another piece of light were several vaccines for the Covid-19 epidemic being confirmed as very effective and green-lighted by the FDA and many international Ministries of Health- the Pfitzer and Moderna vaccines first, followed by the AstraZeneca and Johnson&Johnson vaccines. Many countries started vaccinating their populations, but while the British and especially the Israeli operations were going quickly and effectively, the European and American vaccination efforts seemed to crawl.

In January 20th, an important piece of light came with the end of the Trump Presidency. Joe Biden was inaugurated as the President of the United States, and Kamala Harris was inaugurated as the first woman Vice President.

After four years of populist fervour and an increasingly maddened political system, the question on many minds accross the globe was- will Biden be successful in righting the ship and bringing back trust in government and liberal democratic institutions? Is boring back?

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Cabinet of Joe Biden

President of the United States: Joe Biden
Vice President of the United States: Kamala Harris

Chief of Staff: Ron Klain

Secratary of State: Antony Blinken (confirmed 78-22)
Secretary of the Treasury: Janet Yellen (confirmed 84-15)
Secretary of Defense: Lloyd Austin (confirmed 94-2)
Attorney General: Doug Jones (confirmed 80-20)
Secretary of the Interior: Deb Haaland (confirmed 52-39)
Secretary of Agriculture: Tom Vilsack (confirmed 92-7)
Secretary of Commerce: Gina Raimondo (confirmed 84-15)
Secretary of Labor: Marty Walsh (confirmed 68-29)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Xavier Becerra (confirmed 51-48)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Marcia Fudge (confirmed 67-33)
Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (confirmed 86-13)
Secretary of Energy: Jennifer Granholm (confirmed 65-34)
Secretary of Education: Miguel Cardona (confirmed 64-33)
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Denis McDonough (confirmed 87-7)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Alejandro Mayorkas (confirmed 57-42)
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Michael Regan (confirmed 66-34)
Ambassador to the United Nations: Linda Thomas-Greenfield (confirmed 78-20)
Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Neera Tanden (confirmed 50-50)
Director of National Intelligence: Avril Haines (confirmed 85-10)
Trade Representative: Katherine Tai (confirmed 98-0)
Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors: Cecilia Rouse (confirmed 95-4)
Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Isabel Guzman (confirmed 81-17)
Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy: Eric Lander (confirmed 93-5)

[America Needs R'hllor]

The State of Public Opinion in Key Countries
February 1st

U.S. President Joe Biden Approval (March 1st)
Approve- 62.3%
Disapprove- 32.1%
Unsure- 5.6%

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris Approval (March 1st)
Approve- 53.0%
Disapprove- 36.7%
Unsure- 10.3%

Generic Cogressional Ballot (March 1st)
Democratic Party Candidate- 50.6%
Republican Party Candidate- 40.9%
Undecided/Others- 8.5%


2021 Israeli Knesset Election (Polling)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 29 Seats
New Hope (Gideon Sa'ar)- 17 Seats
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 15 Seats
Yamina (Naftali Bennet)- 13 Seats
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 10 Seats
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 7 Seats
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 7 Seats
Labour (Merav Michaeli)- 6 Seats
Meretz (Nitzan Horovitz)- 5 Seats
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 4 Seats
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 0 Seats (2.3%)
Economic Party (Yaron Zalicha)- 0 Seats (2.3%)
Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben Gvir)- 0 Seats (2.0%)
Israelis (Ron Huldai)- 0 Seats 1.4%
Telem (Bogie Ya'alon)- 0 Seats 0.7%
Jewish Home (Hagit Moshe )- 0 Seats (0.4%)
Tnufa (Ofer Shelah)- 0 Seats 0.3%
Gesher (Orly Levy Abekasis)- 0 Seats (0.0%)


2021 Dutch Legislative Election (Polling)
VVD (RE)- 23%
PVV (ID)- 15%
CDA (EPP)- 11%
PvdA (S&D)- 10%
D66 (RE)- 7%
SP (EUL/NGL)- 6%
GL (G/EFA)- 6%
CU (EPP)- 4%
PvdD (EUL/NGL)- 4%
FvD (ECR)- 3%
Ja21 (ECR)- 2%
SGP (ECR)- 2%
DENK- 2%
50PLUS- 1%
Volt (G/EFA)- 1%
BIJ1- 1%
Others/Undecided- 2%


2021 German Federal Election (Polling)
CDU/CSU (EPP)- 35%
Grüne (G/EFA)- 19%
SPD (S&D)- 16%
AfD (ID)- 9%
Linke (EUL/NGL)- 7%
FDP (RE)- 7%
Others/Undecided- 7%


2022 French Presidential Election (Polling)
Emmanuel Macron (LREM)- 26%
Marine Le Pen (RN)- 25%
LR Candidate- 13%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI)- 10%
PS Candidate- 7%
Yannik Jadot (EELV)- 7%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF)- 6%
Others/Undecided- 6%


Next United Kingdom General Election (Polling)
Conservative Party (Borish Johnson)- 41%
Labour Party (Keir Starmer)- 38%
Liberal Democrats (Ed Davey)- 7%
Green Party (Jonathan Bartley & Siân Berry)- 5%
Scottish National Party (Nicola Sturgeon)- 4%
Others/Undecided- 5%

[America Needs R'hllor]

March Elections- The Netherlands and Israel

Two elections held durin the month of March would have important consequences for their countries. The Dutch Election, held March 15-17, didn't result in many surprises- the ruling VVD party, led by Prime Minister Mark Rutte, won a comfortable plurality and will likely return to lead another coalition- making Rutte one of the longest-serving current leaders in Europe. The biggest surprise came in an overperformance of liberal, pro-EU centrist parties like Democrats 66, who become the second-largest party, and the Eurofederalist Volt. Left-wing parties like the Socialists and the Green-Left, and far-right parties like the Party for Freedom, underperformed. Another party that could find a silver-lining was the Labour Party, PvdA, who returned some of their strength after a horrible election in 2017 and regained their position as the largest left party.

2021 Dutch Legislative Election (Final Results)
VVD (RE)- 21.7% (+0.4)
D66 (RE)- 15.0% (+2.8)
PVV (ID)- 10.3% (-2.8)
CDA (EPP)- 9.1% (-3.3)
PvdA (S&D)- 9.1% (+3.4)
GL (G/EFA)- 6.0% (-3.1)
SP (EUL/NGL)- 4.4% (-4.7)
FvD (ECR)- 4.1 (+2.3)%
PvdD (EUL/NGL)- 3.7% (+0.5)
CU (EPP)- 3.2% (-0.2)
Volt (G/EFA)- 2.6% (new)
Ja21 (ECR)- 2.1% (new)
SGP (ECR)- 2.0% (-0.1)
DENK- 1.9% (-0.2)
50PLUS- 1.0% (-2.1)
BBB- 1.0% (new)
BIJ1- 0.8% (+0.5)
Others- 2.0%



The election results, while generally good for the Prime Minister, did put Rutte in a bit of a tough spot- his former coalition, consisting of VVD, D66, CDA and CU, has only a razor-thin majority of 76, which means he'd either have to bring in one of the center-left parties, PvdA or GL, or failing that, to replace his center-right CDA and CU partners with PvdA and GL, leading to a center-left coalition.


In the tumultuous and chaotic politics of Israel, the fifth election in the span of two years didn't end up with a decisive result that would promise and end to the constant election cycles and government instability.

Despite a successful vaccination effort and a downward trend in coronavirus cases, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc of potential supporters failed for the fourth time to attain a working majority. However, there seems no end in sight, as the opposing bloc of parties include both the Joint Arab List and Ra'am, whom right-wing anti-Netanyahu party New Hope refuses to sit in government with.

The election season itself was weird and full of twists, as befits Israeli politics. It started dramatically with Gideon Sa'ar, major Likud figure and Netanyahu rival, leaving his party and forming an independent list. He was joined by several disgruntled former Likud figures, current Likud MKs Michal Shir and Sharen Haskel who were Sa'ar allies, and a major former Netanyahu ally and Minister Ze'ev Elkin. The list surged to second place in the polls and seemed to pose a real threat to Netanyahu's Likud, though eventually it fell and lost many centrist supporters to Lapid's Yesh Atid and Gantz's Kahol Lavan (Blue & White).

This was followed by many tiny parties being formed by center-left leaders in bids to gain power in a future union and promote their path for beating the Prime Minister. Among those were:
- The Israelis, led by Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai, surging to 8-9 seats at its founding and after the joining of Justice Minister Avi Nissnkorn from Kahol Lavan and later declining due to a luckluster launch
- Telem, led by former Defense Minister Bogie Ya'alon who split with Lapid's Yesh Atid
- Tnufa, founded by MK Ofer Shelah from Yesh Atid who believed Lapid's leadership will lead the center-left nowhere
- The New Economic Party led by famous economist and anti-corruption activist Yaron Zalicha

But the center-left was again shaken up when MK Merav Michaeli from Labour, the only one of the three MKs in the party who refused to join the Netanyahu-Gantz government, won a shocking court case that forced the party to hold a leadership and list primary. Knowing their unpopularity, party leader and Economy Minister Amir Peretz and Welfare Minister Itzik Shmuli refused to run, leaving Michaeli to run against several no-names and become leader. Michaeli, a well-known feminist icon and very popular among the base, revived the dead party seemingly out of nowhere, and it went from polling at around 1% to passing the threshold and easily pulling 4-5 seats. After the party held its list primary, with many new and old figures joining the revived party, it surged to 6-8 seats in the polls and sunk Huldai's uninspiring Israelis. In the end, Michaeli refused to let any of the other parties merge with hers (only agreeing to give their leaders reserved seats on her list). The chicken game paid off, and she defeated the experienced men- Ya'alon, Shelah and Huldai all dropped out with their parties and cleared the fractured center-left field. Zalicha's Economic Party continued running, but he dropped out a week before the election.

On the right side, another shakeup happened when Yamina split between the more socially moderate faction led by Naftali Bennet and Ayelet Shaked and the far-right religious National Union faction led by Bezalel Smotrich. Renaming his party to "Religious Zionism", Smotrich ran independently. With great pressure and urging from Prime Minister Netanyahu, Religious Zionism united with the Kahanist far-right Jewish National Front (Otzma Yehudit), as well as the Noam Party, which was founded to oppose progressive causes like LGBTQ acceptance and gender equality and was controversial for extremely homophobic and transphobic campaigns.

Eventually, the election results were mixed for both sides. On the right, Likud was disappointed with losing as many as six seats (seven if counting the single Gesher Party seat after the defection of Orly Levy Abekasis to Likud). However, the right itself retained its strength, with Benet's Yamina finishing at a disappointing 7 seats and Smotrich's far-right party overperforming and winning 6 seats- which meant the representative of Noam, placed 6th, would enter the Knesset.

In the anti-Netanyahu bloc, some came out disappointed while others celebrated. Lapid's Yesh Atid, while expecting a result in the twenties, was satisfied with its position as the largest party in the bloc and saw it as a result of Lapid's careful maneuvers not to eat up too much into the voter base of Labour, Kahol Lavan and especially Meretz to ensure they all pass the threshold of 3.25%. Gantz's party, previously fighting for its life, achieved an impressive result of 7 seats which none of the polls gave him, while Meretz, considered in a grave danger before the election, passed the threshold comfortably and won 5 seats, probably due to a scare campaign warning center-left voters that if it didn't pass a Netanyahu-Kahanist government would emerge.

But the biggest victor was Labour- Michaeli led a party left for dead into a very impressive result of 9 seats, taking place as the third biggest party in Israel. This proved her value as a leader, though the real test of her leadership was still to come.

The biggest loser of the night was, without a doubt, the Joint List- a decrease in Arab turnout led them to a disappointing finish of 6 seats versus 15 in the last election. The Islamist splinter Ra'am, running alone to promote a more socially conservative and politically pragmatist agenda, still won 4 seats, but the Joint List lost 5 whole seats of Arab representation and came behind parties like Religious Zionism and Yisrael Beiteinu in the vote count.

2021 Israeli Knesset Election (Final Results)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 30 Seats (-7)
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 18 Seats (+2)
Labour Party (Merav Michaeli)- 9 Seats (+6)
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 8 Seats (-1)
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 7 Seats (-5)
Yamina (Naftali Bennet)- 7 Seats (+4)
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 7 Seats (+-0)
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats (+-0)
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 6 Seats (+4)
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 6 Seats (-5)
New Hope (Gideon Sa'ar)- 6 Seats (new)
Meretz (Nitzan Horovitz)- 5 Seats (+2)
Ra'am (Mansour Abbas)- 4 Seats (+-0)



Overall, the results signalled further stalemate- the parties who were potnetial partners for Prime Minister Netanyahu, Likud, Yamina, Shas, UTJ and Religious Zionism achieved a collective 58 seats, 3 short from a majority. The bloc of parties who explicitly promised not to join a Netanyahu government, branding itself "the Change Bloc" and consisting of Yesh Atid, Labour, Kahol Lavan, Yisrael Beiteinu, Joint List, New Hope and Meretz, also reached 58 seats. Breaking the tie was the Ra'am, who didn't rule out a coalition with any side, including the right wing. In a surreal turn of events, Israel's political fortune was in the hands of an Islamist party.

However, the Change Bloc had a unity problem- it consisted of left-wing Meretz and Labor and right-wing New Hope and Yisrael Beiteinu, and worse, New Hope explicitly promised not to sit in a government supported by either Ra'am or the Joint List. And on the other side, too, both Yamina and Religious Zionism promised not to agree to support from outside by Ra'am. New Hope and Religious Zionism forcefully reiterated the promise even after the election.

The political puzzle in Israel seemed unsolveable.


Note: As you can see, currently it feels like I'm narrating real life events. If you look closely, you'll notice some small changes, in line with the trend I set by changing one Senate race and a few House races in the U.S. Soon enoug, the divergence will start deepening.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Biden Administration- First 100 Days

The Biden administration got its start in the shadow of political, social, health and economic crises never seen in many years. However, while they served as a great challenge to the new government, they also presented an opportunity to transform the American economy and political system forever.

President Biden's first 100 days were eventful and packed with action. It started with a flurry of executive orders rescinding many controversial Trump policies such as ending the Muslim ban, returning to the Paris Agreement and World Health Organization, cancelling the Keystone Pipeline's, putting a moratorium on most deportations, enforcing LGBTQ protections, protecting DACA and blocking all last-minute Trump regulations.

The first item on the legislative agenda was a Covid-19 economic relief and stimulus bill called "the American Rescue Plan". Injecting nearly 2$ trillion into the economy, the bill had many different provisions that advanced progressive and Democratic priorities. Included in the bill were direct 1400$ checks sent to a population even wider than the ones eligible for the last round of 600$ checks by including adult dependents like college students; extended and expanded unemployment benefits until the end of September; and huge investments in federal, state and local education, transportation and vaccination efforts.

The plan was widely popular in the public, receiving 60-70% support in most polls. Despite that, Republican members of Congress all opposed it, and a group of Senators led by Susan Collins (R-ME) suggested a watered-down 600$ billion plan, which President Biden called a "do-nothing proposal", protesting that Republicans "all of a sudden" discovered deficits and fiscal restraint after passing "trillions in tax breaks for the rich". In the end Democrats decided to pass the plan without Republican support, though the negotiation was still tough due to two moderate Democratic Senators- Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ). The main blow to the original bill was the removal of the 15$ minimum wage increase due to inability to pass it via reconciliation and the opposition of Manchin and Sinema. Senator Manchin also opposed the extension of unemployment benefits to the end of September, but eventually after being presented by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) with the fact that the bill already had 50 supporters (with Sinema not joining his opposition), Manchin relented and voted with Democrats.

Thus the the bill was passed mostly along party lines- in the Senate, the final vote was a party-line 51-48 vote (Senator Sullivan of Alaska was absent) and in the House the final vote was 206-225 (Mike Bost from Illinois was absent and 3 seats were vacant), nearly party-line with all Republicans voting against it and Democrats Jared Golden (D-ME) and Brad Schneider (D-OR) voting with them against the rest of their Caucus.


Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Schumer ceremoniously signing the American Rescue Plan

The Biden administration did not stop there, though. The next big item on the agenda was supposed to serve as a complete transformation of the American economy- a big infraustracture bill, named "the Build Back Better Plan". It was a huge plan amounting for 4$ trillion spent over the span of eight years and was introduced in two parts. The first was the American Jobs Plan, and included massive investments in clean energy jobs, the fixing of roads and bridges throughout the country, modernization and improvement of public transportation and railways, improvement and maintenance of drinking water and electric facilities, workforce training, investment in U.S. manufacturing, funding for disabled and elderly care, the establishment of broadband in all rural areas and funding for housing and school facilities. The second part, dubbed the American Family Care Act, included child care funding, paid family and medical leave and healthcare investments. The plan would be paid for in a large part- 3.5$ trillion in corporate tax hikes that erase the 2017 Trump tax cuts, tax increases on top earners and the end of fossil fuel subsidies.

Though the infraustracture plan was larger and more ambitious than the covid-19 relief bill, the BBBA and the ARP were nonetheless both part of a larger agenda- what was dubbed by many in the media "Bidenomics". It was the combination of several economic viewpoints- an old-stype populist "invest in America" sort of politics advanced by Biden for years; a keynesian view that government spending would strengthen the economy and raise standards of life; and a modern progressive focus on lifting up women and minorities and combatting climate change.

The plan's passage through Congress was more contentious and hard-fought than the coronavirus relief package. A group of House Democrats demanded and got the raising of SALT caps, and to the insistence of Senator Sinema some of the tax increases and the healthcare investments were removed. But in the end, one key factor helped the Biden plan- infraustracture was a widely-popular topic, and even though the GOP attempted to frame the plan as "fake infraustracture" the narrative did not take off. One key ally for Biden in this fight was Senator Manchin (D-WV), who was very supportive of a massive infraustracture plan and called the Republican position, a far thinner plan, "unreasonable". Even though it took some effort for Manchin to agree to the provisions in the second half of the bill, in the end he supported the joint bill.

The Build Back Better Act, incorporating both halves of the plan, passed through reconciliation during late June and was signed into law by President Biden at July 7th, independence day. The Senate vote was a party-line 51-49, and the House vote was similar to the ARP vote, with a few more defections- 211-222 in favour of the bill, with all Republicans opposing and two vacant seats created by the seats of HUD Secretary Fudge and deceased Rep. Hastings (D-FL). The only Democrats voting against the plan were Brad Schneider (D-OR), Ben McAdams (D-UT), Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) and Henry Cueller (D-TX).


President Biden Signs the Build Back Better Act

Aside from the flurry of executive orders and the two large economic bills, the first stage of Biden's first term in office included many other actions such as the announcement of a full withdrawal from Afghanistan by 9\11\21, the beginning of indirect negotiations for a new deal with Iran, the return of aid to the Palestinian Authority, the nomination of many judges, new executive orders promoting gun safety and more. As vaccination efforts turned from a crawl to a resounding success, the nation began to open up safely and the economy started to improve again, the President's popularity remained high.

All the while, the Republican Party focused on cultural issues such as "cancel-culture" and a perceived immigration crisis at the southern border. It wasn't clear that this would have success in countering the President's meterial accomplishments. Biden's success at passing two huge economic bills that transformed America's economy seemed to signal the beginning of a new era- the end of the Reagenist "each for their own" mindset and the return to a robust government that supports a tough safety net and invests in the economy. Biden's administration was remarkably boring, but its actions thus far had been transformational.

However, possibly the most important fight of the Biden administration was still looming. The Republican Party had turned its focus in recent years from fiscal and even social issues to the goal of preserving its hold on Congress and the Courts through en-masse gerrymandering and voting restrictions. The Democrats were advancing H.R. 1, For the People Act, a bill with the goal to shore up election security and voting rights and, importantly, ban the practice of gerrymandering for congressional districts. Republicans, unsurprisingly, strongly opposed the bill, but many Democrats saw it as a precious chance to create a fair and equal democratic process. However, while it passed the House on party lines, the Senate's filibuster rules would prevent its passage there without substantial Republican support. The next fight for the Biden administration, and the hardest so far, both inside and outside the Democratic Party, was on this issue.

U.S. President Joe Biden Approval (July 7th)
Approve- 55.6%
Disapprove- 40.1%
Unsure- 4.3%

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris Approval (July 7th)
Approve- 50.3%
Disapprove- 42.0%
Unsure- 7.7%

Generic Cogressional Ballot (July 7th)
Democratic Party Candidate- 48.7%
Republican Party Candidate- 43.4%
Undecided/Others- 7.9%

[America Needs R'hllor]

This isn't dead, btw. I've already wrote several of the future posts, but I'm waiting for current developments in Israel. Upcoming posts: the culmination of the Israeli coalition talks, developments in the U.S. regarding the filibuster and H.R.1, and German 2021 federal elections. We're gonna start diverging more and more from OTL with each post.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Isn't the point of a timeline that things change?

Yes, but I want to start with minor changes and diverge gradually.

[America Needs R'hllor]

BREAKING NEWS: Netanyahu foes strike coalition deal to form government, ending long Bibi era in Israel
The new government will consist of Yesh Atid, Yamina, Labor, Blue & White, Yisrael Beiteinu, New Hope, Meretz and Ra'am; Meet the new leaders of Israel- Prime Minister Naftali Bennet and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid

The new governing duo of Israel, Naftali Bennet and Yair Lapid

13/6/2021

TEL AVIV - Riki's face is glistening with tears. She's been crying, but her expression is happy. "We've been waiting for this for years," she says. "I've been scared for my country. Now that he's gone, we can start anew." She lives in Rishon Lezion, a city near Tel Aviv, but is a regular participant in the countless anti-Netanyahu protests held in Jerusalem, near the iconic Balfour Street Prime Minister's residence. The protest movement was a major driving force behind the Israeli opposition to "King Bibi", fueling the urgency around the removal of the Prime Minister as the number 1 goal of the opposition. Now, despite crowning a politician to Netanyahu's right, the protestors are ecstatic.

Miriam isn't shedding any tears, but neither is she happy with the recent development. "We're making a big mistake," she warns, "Bibi is a leader. He had great ties with the world, he knew how to manage the economy, and he knew how to protect us from our enemies. Now, we don't know what will happen. I remember what happened the last time the left was in power, God save us." Miriam hails from Sderot, the city closest to Gaza that suffered many Hamas rockets during Netanyahu's many years in office but still votes for him by a decisive margin like many other periphery cities.

Riki and Miriam represent the great divide of Israeli politics the past few years- fans of Netanyahu who don't see an alternative to his leadership, and bitter opponents from the left, center and right who view him as a threat to democracy. Now that he won't be named Prime Minister for the first time in over a decade, will the country be able to move on? It's unclear.

Netanyahu, just yesterday, vowed to remain Opposition Leader in the Knesset. His Likud ally, former Coalition Chair Miki Zohar, said that Netanyahu would "make life hell" for the new government.

But while he looms large, Netanyahu also serves as the glue for a very unnatural coalition consisting of two right-wing parties, three centrist parties, two left wing parties and an Islamist party. In order to secure a government, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid had to compromise on a lot and introduce odd mechanisms. For one, he'd be the leader of the largest party in the government, but for its first two years, the 7-seat (6 after the defection of MK Amitai Chikli) Yamina leader Naftali Bennet will serve as Prime Minister. Additionally, the government will put a freeze on issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and judiciary reform.

But despite seemingly impossible odds, some Israelis are expecting the new government to last. "Both sides have an interest to maintain it," says Dani Dayan, former Israeli Consul to New York and member of Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope party. "Bennet wants to remain Prime Minister for his whole two years to present accomplishments to the base, and Lapid wants to get to his own two years. Gideon is a man of his word, and he won't let any side get away with dirty tricks."

If the government can agree on a two-year budget twice, it would guarantee its survival barring a successful motion of no confidence. And with a possible cushion of support from the Joint Arab List's 6 seats should Bennet decide to bail after two years, Lapid, a longtime Netanyahu opponent who compromised again and again and played a long game, might finally become Prime Minister.

"Everyone thought it impossible, including me." Ofer Shelah, a former MK and Lapid ally turned rival, tells us. "But I think he did it."


Israel's 36th Government

Coalition: Yesh Atid (17), Labor (9), Kahol Lavan (7), Yisrael Beiteinu (7), Yamina (6), New Hope (6), Meretz (5), Ra'am (4)
Total: 62 Seats


Prime Minister: Naftali Bennet (Yamina) 2 years, Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) 2 years
Foreign Minister and Replacement Prime Minister: Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) 2 years, Naftali Bennet (Yamina) 2 years
Defense Minister: Benny Gantz (Kahol Lavan)
Finance Minister: Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Justice Minister: Gideon Sa'ar (New Hope)
Home Minister: Merav Michaeli (Labor)
Education Minister: Yifat Shasha Biton (New Hope)
Economy and Industry Minister: Ayelet Shaked (New Right)
Internal Security Minister: Omer Bar Lev (Labor)
Health Minister: Nitzan Horovitz (Meretz)
Transportation Minister: Orna Barbivai (Yesh Atid)
Construction and Housing Minister: Ze'ev Elkin (New Hope)
Labor and Welfare Minister: Meir Cohen (Yesh Atid)
Energy and Water Minister: Karin Elharar (Yesh Atid)
Communications and Media Minister: Yoaz Hendel (New Hope)
Agriculture Minister: Oded Forer (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Environmental Protection Minister: Tamar Zandberg (Meretz)
Immigration and Integration Minister: Pnina Tamano-Shata (Kahol Lavan)
Regional Cooperation Minister: Isawi Farij (Meretz)
Culture and Sports Minister: Hili Trooper (Kahol Lavan)
Tourism Minister: Yoel Razvozov (Yesh Atid)
Science and Technology Minister: Orit Farkash-Hacohen (Kahol Lavan)
Intelligence Minister: Elazar Stern (Yesh Atid)
Social Equality Minister: Merav Cohen (Yesh Atid)
Diaspora Minister: Nachman Shai (Labor)
Religious Affairs Minister: Matan Kahana (Yamina)
Minister in the Finance Ministry: Hamad Amar (Yisrael Beiteinu)

Deputy Foreign Minister: Idan Roll (Yesh Atid)
Deputy Defense Minister: Alon Shuster (Kahol Lavan)
Deputy Internal Security Minister: Yoav Segalovich (Yesh Atid)
Deputy Economy Minister: Yair Golan (Meretz)
Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister's Office: Abir Kara (New Right)

Speaker of the Knesset: Mickey Levi (Yesh Atid)
Coalition Chair: Idit Silman (Yamina)
Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chair: Ram Ben Barak (Yesh Atid)
Finance Committee Chair: Alex Kushnir (Yisrael Beiteinu)
Internal Affairs and Environmental Protection Committee Chair: Said al-Harumi (Ra'am)
Constitution, Law and Justice Committee Chair: Gilad Kariv (Labor)
Education, Culture and Sports Committee Chair: Sharen Haskel (New Hope)
Economy Committee Chair: Michael Biton (Kahol Lavan)
Labor, Welfare and Healthcare Committee Chair: Efrat Rayten (Labor)
Special Committee for Arab Affairs Chair: Mansour Abbas (Ra'am)

[America Needs R'hllor]

As you can see, Boring is Back is back! Hope you enjoy!

[America Needs R'hllor]

Chuck

Source: Wikipedia Commons

September 23rd, 2021

By August, Covid-19 relief and infraustracture were both success stories. President Biden was very popular, keeping his approval ratings at the 55-60 area, and even congressional Demcorats enjoyed some of that popularity in opinion polling. Things were looking good. Then, a new covid-19 wave and a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan harmed the President and his approvals sunk. Since then, the situation in Afghanistan started taking less and less attention, and the coronavirus numbers seemed to stabilize. Biden's numbers, similarly, stabilized.

Chuck was hopeful, but also anxious today. The reason was that his greatest and most important challenge as Senate Majority Leader was still ahead of him- democracy reform. The Democratic Party's flagship bill, H.R.1, For the People Act, included provisions that protected voting rights, sought to expand turnout and banned gerrymandering. They all knew how important it was- gerrymandering had long been among the greatest plagues on American demoracy, but now, in 2022, Democrats were almost certain to lose the House if they didn't act to prevent it. With all the progress they were making, Chuck couldn't fathom letting Republicans take minoritarian rule without a fight.

There was a problem, though- a thorn at this side. Or rather, two thorns. Senator Joe Manchin, Senator Kyrsten Sinema. With a majority of just 51, he needed at least one of them to support him in the two necessary steps towards passing H.R.1: reforming the filibuster and actually passing the bill. It seemed nearly impossible, as they both refused to abolish the filibuster and Manchin outright refused to support the bill and didn't think it was a good way to go forward.

But recently, through discussions with the White House and Speaker Pelosi, a strategy was beginning to form in his mind, and it was nearly time to execute it. His office phone rang, and he picked up. "It's Senator Kelly, sir." His secretary said. "Good," he responded.

"Hey, Chuck," Mark Kelly said on the other side. He sounded a bit disappointed. "I talked to Kyrsten."

"What did she say?" Schumer asked.

"She won't support any reform to the filibuster. Not even a speaking filibuster and shifting the burden to the minority."

"Not even if Joe supports it?"

Mark went silent for a moment. "The President?"

"The West Virginia Senator."

"Oh. Yeah, I told her we might have his vote, she said it doesn't matter. I think she's a true believer, Chuck, she really doesn't want to reform the filibuster."

The Senate Leader wasn't surprised. He already planned accordingly. "Ok. Thanks, Mark."

While both were a bother to deal with, Chuck perceived that Joe and Kyrsten were a bit different. They had different priorities, and they were stubborn on different issues. On the filibuster, Manchin was actually the one who was a bit more moveable. He had been speaking to Manchin for a while now, careful not to offend him, and included some nice provisions for West Virginia in the Senate version of the Build Back Better Act. Now, with Republicans refusing to support any of the infraustracture packages, Joe was angry at their refusal to work with him- and Chuck, along with Dick Durbin, kept talking to him about "nudging" them in that direction by introducing a talking filibuster with the burden to present 41 against the proposal in the chamber at all times on the minority. The West Virginia centrist was reluctant, but it seemed like he was finally convinced now.

They were moving forward, Chuck decided, even without Sinema. And once this was done, they were going to pass H.R.1- without Manchin, who didn't want to support many crucial provisions in the bill, but with Sinema, who was a co-sponsor. It was a two-stage plan using both of the trouble makers that, hopefully, would end up in victory. Then, with democracy shored up, they'll be able to focus on the midterms.

U.S. President Joe Biden Approval (September 23rd)
Approve- 50.8%
Disapprove- 46.5%
Unsure- 2.7%
APPROVE +4.3%

Generic Cogressional Ballot (September 23rd)
Democratic Party Candidate- 49.0%
Republican Party Candidate- 44.3%
Undecided/Others- 6.7%
DEMOCRATIC +4.7%

[America Needs R'hllor]

September 2021 Elections - Germany and Canada


Sources: Wikimedia, Flickr

In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called an early election for September 2021, just two years after the last election, in an attempt to earn a parliamentary majority. He would come to regret it, as early polls showed a Liberal Party collapse and Conservative Party surge, voters being unconvinced about the necessity of an election.

By September, after several successful debates, polls seemed to stabilize, and Trudeau's party slowly crawled back to a lead, owing mostly to a decline for the Conservatives and a rise for the NDP. In the end, Trudeau won a bitter victory, his party falling in seats and being forced to rely on NDP for another minority government.

2021 Canadian Federal Election (Results)
Liberal (Justin Trudeau)- 32.0% (145 Seats)
Conservative (Erin O'Toole)- 34.9% (136 Seats)
New Democratic (Jagmeet Singh)- 19.1% (32 Seats)
Bloc Québécois (Yves-François Blanchet)- 5.8% (24 Seats)
Green (Annamie Paul)- 4.3% (2 Seats)
People's (Maxime Bernier)- 2.4% (0 Seats)
Others- 1.5% (0 Seats)

The NDP were generally satisfied with their result, while the Bloc and the Greens were disappointed. However, Green leader Annamie Paul noteably won her seat in Toronto Centere (with former leader Elizabeth May the other elected Green MP).




At September 26th, 2021, one of the most consequential elections in world politics were held in Germany.

The ruling center-right CDU/CSU alliance stuck by their candidate for Chancellor, Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia Armin Laschet, despite his unpopularity in opinion polling. Though he ran a campaign without many gaffes, many voters just saw him as unappealing, without the technocratic competence of Chancellor Merkel.

On the other hand, Green Party co-leader Annalena Baerbock, chosen as her party's candidate for Chancellor, started as an exciting and popular candidate. Gaffes and mistakes quickly sank her popularity, but the Greens remained strong enough to rise far above their usual numbers, getting a lot of support from young and urban voters to get a strong third place finish.

The election's surprise came from the SDP, CDU's governing partners and main historical opposition. They fielded an experienced candidate in Vice Chancellor, Finance Minister and former First Mayor of Hamburg Olaf Scholz for Chancellor, and many Merkel supporters seem to have found him as the most competent and appealing heir for her. After both the CDU and Green leaders fell in popularity, Scholz, who ran a disciplined campaign, saw a meteoric rise in the polls and his party finished first.

Among the other parties, the liberal FDP could be the most satisfied- they gained some votes from disgruntled CDU/CSU supporters, and finished fourth with a strong result. The far-right Afd, despite their main right-wing rival losing seats, came out disappointed with an underperformance, as the issues that powered them- anti-immigration sentiments and EU skepticism- took the backseat in the election. And Linke, seen by many as an irrelevant party without the ability of the Greens or SPD to wield power, lost strength and came dangerously close to the threshold of 5%. They hope that this is their core base, without more voters to lose.

2021 German Federal Election (Results)
SPD (Olaf Scholz)- 26.7% (205 Seats)
CDU/CSU (Armin Laschet)- 22.4% (172 Seats)
Grüne (Annalena Baerbock)- 17.6% (131 Seats)
FDP (Christian Linder)- 11.9% (90 Seats)
AfD (Alice Weidel & Tino Chrupalla)- 10.4% (71 Seats)
Linke (Janine Wissler & Dietmar Bartsch)- 6.3% (46 Seats)
Others- 4.7% (0 Seats)

With these results, Europe woke up to a new reality- an old-school social democratic resurgence in the continent's most powerful actor. Scholz and the SPD were sure to form the next government, though their coalition partners were still to be decided. The SDP had several options- a grand coalition numbered 377 seats (19 seat majority), a traffic lights coalition with the Greens and FDP had 426 (68 seat majority), and a red-red-green coalition with the Greens and Linke had 382 (24 seat majority).

In the end, the SPD chose the so-called "traffic-light" coalition, deciding that coalitioning with the Left was too dangerous. Germany got its most socially liberal government in history. It wasn't just socially liberal, though- it supported a strengthening of the safety net, more free trade agreements, promised unprecedented measures to combat climate change and protect the environment, including a global push, and it was a fair bit more anti-Russia than Merkel's CDU/CSU-SPD government, promising to protect the independence of Ukraine and the Baltic countries.

In the coalition agreements, the positions of Vice Chancellor, Foreign Affairs Minister, Economics and Energy Minister, Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety Minister, and Transport and Digital Infrastructure Minister went to the Greens. The positions of Finance Minister, Justice Minister, Education Minister and Health Minister went to the FDP. And the positions of Chancellor, Defense Minister, Interior Minister, Labour Minister, Food and Agriculture Minister, Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth Minister,  and Economic Cooperation and Development Minister went to the SPD.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Jon

Source: Wikimedia

November 10th, 2021

Jon Ossoff watched as John Cornyn, the Texas Senator and the most senior Republican leader in the Senate chamber right now, approached Chuck Schumer. "We give up," he said dryly. "You can hold your vote."

The Georgia Senator, with most of the Democratic caucus, sighed in relief. This was one of the most exhausting months in his life. But they, the Democrats, were in a relatively good shape compared to the Republicans.

All the way back in the end of September, Senators Schumer and Durbin executed a brilliant move by getting Joe Manchin on board with a filibuster reform- the return of the speaking filibuster and the shifting of the burden on the minority, to provide 40 Senators at all times to keep the floor, not on the majority to bring 60 votes. Nonetheless, the GOP Senators started their filibuster of the For the People Act in high spirits. This was exactly the wedge issue they needed to rile up their base- an issue relating to race and elections, rather than the kitchen-table issues President Biden dominated them on. They believed that their filibuster would hurt Democrats politically, and derail the Biden congressional agenda, forcing them to give up.

They were wrong, for the most part. Senate Democrats chose a strategic time to start that process- Biden has passed two huge bills and Americans were satisfied with his efforts, so Biden and Schumer were willing to wait it out.

As the youngest Democrat in the Senate, Jon was there for most of the filibuster, and it was honestly painful to watch. Republicans, with their older caucus, were struggling to keep it up eventually- several young conservatives such as Hawley, Paul, Cruz, Scott, Rubio, Ernst, Cotton, Lee, Marshall and Graham were breathing fire from the floor all the time, urging their fellows to keep up the opposition, but the rank-and-file of the caucus started tiring eventually. One memorable moment was when Senator Jim Inhofe from Oklahoma collapsed while speaking on the floor and had to be hospitalized for exhaustion and dehydration. This actually gave Democrats a split chance to defeat the filibuster, but they decided not to exploit it (to the disappointment of many Republicans). Of course, this hurt Democrats politically- Biden's approval ratings decreased, as did congressional Democrats'. Manchin was telling everyone on the media that he regretted his vote and urged for a rollback of the rules, but Chuck was hearing none of it and pushed forward.

Senate Minority Leader McConnell was constantly urging his fellows to keep it up, refusing to let his life's mission- Republican minority rule through gerrymandering and Supreme Court games- go to waste. But after he drastically cut his time in the chamber and stopped staying overnight altogether, morale in the caucus was very low. Jon was helping his friends keep count of which Republicans gave up- Romney first, then Murkowski, Collins, Shelby, Burr, Sullivan and Inhofe. Now it was Moran, Risch, Fischer, Rounds, Barrasso, Grassley, Boozman and Capoito who forced the hand of their leadership, and they finally gave up. Finally.

Jon cheered spontaneously when he heard Cornyn's words of defeat. Joining him were the younger Democratic Senators who stayed with him in the chamber throughout most of the filibuster struggle- Mark Kelly, Alex Padilla, Michael Bennet, Kirsten Gillibrand, Chris Murphy, Brian Schatz, Cory Booker, Tammy Duckworth, Jacky Rosen, Martin Heinrich, Tammy Baldwin and of course his good friend and fellow from Georgia, Rephael Warnock.

The next few hours were a blur. They quickly sent for the rest of the Democrats as Chuck Schumer prepared to hold a vote. Mitch McConnell crawled back to the chamber, trying to bring with him as many of his fellows as he could, but some decided that there was no point or were too far away. They came to regret it, as Senator Sinema caused a shock when she abstained during the vote despite being a cosponsor of the bill, claiming its passage was "an affront to bipartisanship and collegiality". In the end, the Senate version of the H.R.1 bill passed 49-45. All Democrats but two voted for it, 44 Republicans and Democrat Manchin voted against it, Democrat Sinema abstained, and five Republicans weren't there to vote- Dan Sullivan, Marco Rubio, Jim Inhofe, Richard Shelby and Roger Wicker.

Jon hugged his friend Rephael. "Congrats, friend. This wouldn't have happened without all your efforts."

Rephael smiled. "Thanks, Jon."

They knew that Biden exhausted most of his pre-midterm political capital and that the media would be insufferable about the whole process, but it was worth it. Without gerrymandering and with automatic voter registration, American democracy was going to change forever.

Do you approve of the For the People Act?
Approve- 50.8%
Disapprove- 43.9%
Unsure- 5.3%
APPROVE +6.9%

Do you approve of the way the bill was passed by Democrats?
Disapprove- 56.1%
Approve- 31.6%
Unsure- 12.3%
DISAPPROVE +24.5%

U.S. President Joe Biden Approval (November 11th)
Approve- 49.2%
Disapprove- 48.4%
Unsure- 2.4%
APPROVE +0.8%

Generic Cogressional Ballot (November 11th)
Democratic Party Candidate- 48.6%
Republican Party Candidate- 46.3%
Undecided/Others- 5.1%
DEMOCRATIC +2.3%

[America Needs R'hllor]

BREAKING: Israeli parliament passes budget for 2021-2022, ensuring government's survival


Sources: Wikimedia

JERUSALEM - Before it was formed, no one gave a chance to Israel's new government, encompassing parties from the right to the left and glued only by a shared dislike for the ousted former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Now, not only is the government working without many crises and the cordiality between the different party leaders seems increasingly strong, but a budget was finally passed in Israel for the first time in years. After many negotiations in which the left-wing parties Labor and Meretz paritally succeeded in expanding the safety net and preventing right-wing economic policy goals, the coalition agreed and voted for the budget together, 62 voting for the budget and 58 against it.

With the budget's official passage in the Knesset, the government will not be able to fall until the end of 2022, unless an alternative coalition forms, which is considered highly unlikely. This means that Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid leader and current Foreign Minister, comes a step closer to become Prime Minister in August 2023.

[America Needs R'hllor]

November 2021 U.S. off-year Elections


Source: Flickr

In November 2, 2021, the United States held several important off-year elections for offices such as two Governorships, New York City Mayor and other local races. Additionally, in Septemer 14 California held a Gubernatorial Recall election after a successful petition. Here are the results of the major races.


California


Gavin Newsom, California's Governor, easily defeated the recall effort (Source:Flickr)

As initial polls showed a close race and even a lead on the question of whether California Governor Gavin Newsom should be recalled, the media created fanfare and panic about a possible GOP victory in the largest blue state in the nation, and the bad signs it would point towards for Democrats. This had a reverse effect for recall supporters- the nationalization of the race brought it attention, and California Democrats aggressively drove up enthusiasm among local Democrats to defeat it.

Not only that, but the leading candidate in the recall became conservative talk show host Larry Elder, rather than more moderate alternatives such as former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and Congressman Doug Ose, which made Californians even more anxious. And with Covid-19 numbers starting to decrease, Governor Newsom easily defeated the recall by a double digit gap.

In the second question, which became a pure hypothetical, Elder underperformed but still got the top spot, followed by the chief Democrat, Youtuber and landlord Kevin Paffrath, and by Faulconer. However, the question had very low participation rates as many "no" voters left it blank.

Recall Governor Gavin Newsom?
No- 61.8% ✓
Yes- 38.2%

2021 California Gubernatorial Election (in case of recall) Results
Talkshow Host Larry Elder- 26.5%
Landlord Kevin Paffrath- 24.4%
Fmr. Mayor Kevin Faulconer- 13.2%
Businessman John Cox- 7.9%
Activist Jacqueline McGowan- 7.0%
Assemblyman Kevin Kiley- 3.3%
Attorney Dan Kapelovitz- 2.9%
Activist Caitlyn Jenner- 2.7%
County Supervisor Jeff Hewitt- 1.5%
Others- 10.6%


New Jersey


Despite Republican hopes, Murphy is easily re-elected (Source: Wikipedia)

Despite some GOP fantasies that the race might become competitive in a Biden off-year election, the New Jersey gubernatorial race was never really competitive. Phil Murphy, a surprisingly popular and progressive Governor despite his Goldman Sachs background, comfortably defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli and won a second term as Governor.

New Jersey 2021 Gubernatorial Election (Results)
Governor Phil Murphy- 54.8% ✓
Fmr. Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli- 42.3%
Others- 2.9%


Virginia


Returning for a second term, McAuliffe proved that Virginia is a blue state (Source: Wikipedia)

Considered the most competitive election among the major 2021 races, Virginia took the nation for another spin as pundits debated just how blue it really became. Businessman Glenn Youngkin, the Republican candidate, hoped this debatably purple state can still go Republican in an off-year Biden midterm. However, he had a tough opponent in former Governor Terry McAuliffe, a moderate Clintonworld insider who had a successful and popular term in 2013-2017.

In the end, Democrats proved their lasting strength in the state- McAuliffe defeated Youngkin by a comfortable margin, while Democratic State Delegate Hala Ayala won the election to be Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Democratic Attorney General Mark Herring was re-elected and the Democrats increased their control over the Chamber of Delegates.

Virginia 2021 Gubernatorial Election (Results)
Fmr. Governor Terry McAuliffe- 52.4% ✓
Businessman Glenn Youngkin- 46.2%
Others- 1.4%


New York City


After a primary upset, Andrew Yang conquers New York City Hall (Source: Wikipedia)

In the heavily-Democratic city of New York, there was no doubt that the Democratic nominee would win the Mayor's office to replace term-limited Mayor Bill de Blasio. However, the Democratic Primary itself was a close and chaotic affair. After initially leading due to high name recognition, businessman and former 2020 Democratic Presidential contender Andrew Yang declined in polling, while other candidates such as New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer, former Bill de Blasio counsel Maya Wiley, former New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia and the one who became the new frontrunner, Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams.

Stringer, who positioned himself as the leading progressive in the race, was sunk late into the campaign by sexual assault allegations. Dianne Morales, a non-profit CEO running to Stringer's left and hoping to benefit, was then foiled by poor organization and a collapsing campaign staff. This left the race dominated by relative moderates- Adams, who was a centrist in the past and made controversial proposals on education; Yang, who was attacked by the left for several positions such as support for Israel; Garcia, who was always considered a moderate; an Wiley, who was a mainsteam establishment Democrat but quickly became the favourite of many progressives in the race after Stringer and Morales' collapse.

With Adams leading, the other three candidates were very close in places 2-4. Yang, despite many attacks, maintained his strength and won much support with his optimistic outlook. An alliance with Garcia was key for both candidates, as they hoped each other's support would help them defeat Adams in the final RCV results.

And indeed, the new Ranked Choice system had massive impact on the results. Initially, Adams seemed like a safe bet with a strong first place finish. Yang surprised observers by taking the second place, narrowly over favourite Wiley, and Garcia took a strong fourth place, within reach of the others. Former HUD Secretary Donovan overperformed and came fifth, but still far from victory, as were the rest of the candidates.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Initial)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 27.7%
Businessman Andrew Yang- 18.8%
Attorney Maya Wiley- 18.4%
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 17.1%
Fmr. U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan- 6.8%
New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer- 4.3%
Executive Raymond McGuire- 2.5%
Activist Dianne Morales- 1.6%
Others- 2.8%

After a myriad of minor candidates, including rapper Paperboy Prince and attorney Aaron Foldenauer, were eliminated the results didn't shift much, though progressive candidates received a slightly higher share of these voters.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Others Eliminated)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 28.1% (+0.4%)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 19.2% (+0.4%)
Attorney Maya Wiley- 19.0% (+0.6%)
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 17.5% (+0.4%)
Fmr. U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan- 7.0% (+0.2%)
New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer- 4.6% (+0.3%)
Executive Raymond McGuire- 2.6% (+0.1%)
Activist Dianne Morales- 2.0% (+0.4%)

The next to be eliminated was progressive activist Dianne Morales. Naturally, the more progressive candidates got more of her votes- Stringer and Wiley. But Yang, surprisingly, won a fair share of her voters. This did, however, allow Wiley to pass Yang and position herself in second place.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Morales Eliminated)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 28.3% (+0.2%)
Attorney Maya Wiley- 19.8% (+0.8%)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 19.6% (+0.4%)
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 17.7% (+0.2%)
Fmr. U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan- 7.1% (+0.1%)
New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer- 4.9% (+0.3%)
Executive Raymond McGuire- 2.6% (+0.0%)

Former Citigroup Executive Raymond McGuire, considered one of the more moderate, business-friendly candidates, was the next to be dropped, and his votes split fairly equally between the candidates, not changing the placings (but benefiting Donovan and Garcia especially).

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (McGuire Eliminated)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 28.8% (+0.5%)
Attorney Maya Wiley- 20.2% (+0.4%)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 19.9% (+0.3%)
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 18.5% (+0.8%)
Fmr. U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan- 7.6% (+0.5%)
New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer- 5.0% (+0.1%)

After McGuire, a bigger prize was eliminated- Stringer who, with 5%, had the potential to have a lot of impact in the race for second place. However, since his voters were mostly on the progressive side, they aided Wiley more than the other candidates, and so didn't change any placing.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Stringer Eliminated)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 29.2% (+0.4%)
Attorney Maya Wiley- 22.2% (+2.0%)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 20.8% (+0.9%)
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 19.6% (+1.1%)
Fmr. U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan- 8.2% (+0.6%)

The next to drop out would have the most impact so far. With enough votes to completely scramble the order in the top 4, Donovan was eliminated, and it turned out his voters did surprise everyone- Yang and especially Garcia gained big, while Wiley stayed behind. The result was that she fell from second to fourth place.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Donovan Eliminated)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 30.6% (+1.4%)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 23.6% (+2.8%)
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 23.0% (+3.4%)
Attorney Maya Wiley- 22.8% (+0.6%)

The elimination of Maya Wiley, a step of massive importance that decided which of the Yang-Garcia duo would advance to the final round of RCV, gave a lot of renewed hope to frontrunner Adams, who got a strong boost. And in the end, Wiley's voters, while slightly prefering Garcia, allowed Yang to get an edge.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Wiley Eliminated)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 41.2% (+10.6%)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 29.6% (+6.0%)
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 29.2% (+6.2%)

In the end, what tilted the election was the Yang-Garcia alliance. Despite Adams' closeness to the magic 50% number, Garcia's voters prefered Yang over him by such a wide margin that it allowed him to eke out a win, and become the official Democratic nominee for NYC Mayor.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Garcia Eliminated)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 50.6% (+21.0%) ✓
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 49.4% (+8.2%)

After the end of this tight primary, the general election was pretty much a breeze for Yang- he faced an odd candidate in Curtis Silwa, an animal (especially cat) loving, moderate former Reform Party candidate, who won the Republican nomination against the more conservative Fernando Mateo. In the end, Yang won easily, and became New York City's new Mayor.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Election (Results)
Businessman Andrew Yang (Democratic, Working Families)- 69.2% ✓
Talk Show Host Curtis Silwa (Republican, Animal Welfare)- 25.9%
Ret. NYPD Officer Bill Pepitone (Conservative)- 2.4%
Activist Cathy Rojas (Socialism and Liberation, Green)- 0.9%
Comedian Stacey Prussman (Libertarian)- 0.3%
Others- 1.3%


Other elections

Buffalo, New York Mayoral Election- Despite losing the primary to progessive insurgent India Walton, incumbent Mayor Byron Brown ran as a third-party candidate and won re-election by defeating her 53.6%-44.1% (another 2.3% went to write-in candidates).

Minneapolis, Minnesota Mayoral Election- Incumbent one-term Mayor Jacob Frey secured re-election after a term that included a lot of controversy on police issues. He defeated former State Representative Kate Knuth, community organizer Sheila June Nezhad, co-executive director of the Cedar-Riverside Community Council A.J. Awed and others in a RCV system. The final round had Frey beating Nezhad 56.7%-43.3%.

Boston, Massachusetts Mayoral Election- In one of the most important cities in the country, a very competitive Mayoral election was held between Michelle Wu, a City Councilor who was already challenging former Mayor Marty Walsh (now Labor Secretary) from the left, Acting Mayor and City Councilor Kim Janey, City Councilor Andrea Campbell, City Councilor Annissa Essaibi George and former Boston Chief of Economic Development John Barros. After a tough battle against Campbell and Essaibi George, Wu and Janey made it into the second round. There, Wu defeated Janey 51.2%-48.8%, becoming Boston's second female and first Asian-American Mayor.

Cleveland, Ohio Mayoral Election- With incumbent Mayor Frank Jackson retiring, Cleveland had a tough race in which the shadow of former Mayor, U.S. Rep. and Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich, who was running again, loomed. Kucinich, who created controversy by not vaccinating and making other questionable statements, was running against State Senator Sandra Williams, City Council President Kevin Kelley, nonprofit executive Justin Bibb (endorsed by Our Revolution), City Councilor Basheer Jones, former City Councilor Zack Reed and attorney Ross DiBello. After a close fight with Bibb and Jones, Kelley advanced to the second round against Kucinish. There, most forces coalesced around him and allowed him to defeat the former Mayor 54.5%-45.5%.

Cincinatti, Ohio Mayoral Election- In another major Ohio city, the main candidates to replace the term-limited John Cranley (who ran for Governor) were former Mayor and U.S. Representative and current City Councilor David Mann, State Senator Cecil Thomas and former Congressional candidate Aftab Pureval. Pureval and Mann advanced to the second round, in which the much younger and more progressive candidate defeated the former Mayor, who was endorsed mostly by Republicans and indepdndents, by a 57.6%-42.4% margin.

Seattle, Washington Mayoral Election- After incumbent Mayor Jenny Durkan surprisingly retired, this progressive, large city had a face-off between City Council President Lorena González and former City Councilor Bruce Harrell, who was considered the more moderate of the two. After a close race, Harrell prevailed 50.8%-49.2%.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Happy New Year! 2022 Arrives


Source: Wikipedia

My fellow Americans. 2021 hasn't been an easy year for us. The coronavirus epidemic continued plaguing the world, and here at home, our democracy has faced unprecedented challenges from extremist forces who wish to dim the light and warmth that is our republic, and replace it with cold, dark authoritarianism. But we've made so much progress together. We passed a historic stimulus package to help our economy not just rebound, but come out better from this pandemic. We've reduced inequality, child poverty and created so many new jobs. We invested unprecedentedly in our country's infraustracture, both physical and human, and built back better to make sure that we will gradually have better roads, better drinking water, better green energy and a better care economy. We continued standing up to bullies and authoritarian leaders both at home and abroad, and standing for regular folks who just want to live their life in freedom and equality. And we took steps to fight climate change by reducing pollution and emissions, and promoting global co-operation.

I promise you- next year, we will do all we can to continue uniting and improving life in our country. I urge everyone who hadn't yet to get vaccinated- we can no longer wait. If you're celebrating the new year outside your home, please stay safe and wear a mask.

Happy new year. May God bless you, and the United States of America.

As the sun set on 2021, the world looked very different than it did a year ago. The grim divisiveness of Donald Trump was replaced by the hopeful tone of President Joe Biden, who seemed to be leading a new global counterattack of liberal democratic forces against the populist, racist and authoritarian trends of the past years. Old school social democracy was on the rise as well, with social democratic leaders taking over in Germany and Norway.

But 2022 would serve as a crucial test to thie new global trend- whether it's the ability of Joe Biden's Democrats to stand their ground in the midterm election or major elections in France, Brazil, Poland and Hungary where authoritarian, populist, anti-liberla forces were prepared to take their stands.

The State of Public Opinion in Key Countries
January 1st. 2022

President Joe Biden Approval (January 1st)
Approve- 49.3%
Disapprove- 45.8%
Unsure- 4.9%

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris Approval (January 1st)
Disapprove- 47.4%
Approve- 44.9%
Unsure- 7.7%

Generic Cogressional Ballot (January 1st)
Democratic Party Candidate- 47.8%
Republican Party Candidate- 44.1%
Undecided/Others- 8.1%


2022 French Presidential Election (Polling)
President Emmanuel Macron (LREM)- 24%
National Assemblywoman Marine Le Pen (RN)- 16%
Journalist Éric Zemmour (Independent)- 15%
Hauts-de-France Regional Council President Xavier Bertrand (Right)- 14%
National Assemblyman Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI)- 8%
MEP Yannik Jadot (EELV)- 8%
Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo (PS)- 6%
National Assemblyman Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF)- 2%
Journalist Fabien Roussel (PCF)- 2%
Others/Undecided- 5%


2022 Brazilian Presidential Election (Polling)
Fmr. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)- 39.1%
President Jair Bolsonaro (APB)- 31.5%
Fmr. Federal Deputy Ciro Gomes (PDT)- 11.8%
São Paulo Governor João Doria (PSDB)- 6.6%
Others/Undecided- 11.0%


2022 South Korean Presidential Election (Polling)
Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung (Democratic)- 44.7%
Fmr. Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl (People Power)- 42.1%
National Assemblywoman Sim Sang-jung (Justice)- 4.1%
Fmr. National Assemblyman Ahn Cheol-soo (People Party)- 2.3%
Others/Undecided- 6.8%


2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election (Polling)
Fidesz–KDNP (Viktor Orbán)- 47.2%
Jobbik-MSZP-Dialogue-DK-LMP-Momentum (Gergely Karácsony)- 45.4%
Others/Undecided- 7.4%


2022 Australian General Election (Polling)
Labor Party (Anthony Albanese)- 38.5%
Liberal/National Coalition (Scott Morrison)- 36.5%
Green Party (Adam Bandt)- 11.8%
Pauline Hanson's One Nation (Pauline Hanson)- 3.3%
Others/Undecided- 9.9%%


Next United Kingdom General Election (Polling)
Conservative Party (Borish Johnson)- 36%
Labour Party (Keir Starmer)- 35%
Liberal Democrats (Ed Davey)- 9%
Green Party (Tamsin Omond & Amelia Womack)- 8%
Scottish National Party (Nicola Sturgeon)- 5%
Reform UK (Nigel Farage)- 4%
Others/Undecided- 3%


Next Israeli Knesset Election (Polling)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 29 Seats
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 18 Seats
Labour (Merav Michaeli)- 10 Seats
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 8 Seats
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 8 Seats
Yamina (Naftali Bennet)- 7 Seats
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 7 Seats
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 6 Seats
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 6 Seats
Meretz (Nitzan Horovitz)- 5 Seats
Ra'am (Mansour Abbas)- 5 Seats
New Hope (Gideon Sa'ar)- 4 Seats


Next Dutch Legislative Election (Polling)
VVD (RE)- 35 Seats
D66 (RE)- 18 Seats
PVV (ID)- 18 Seats
PvdA (S&D)- 15 Seats
GL (G/EFA)- 8 Seats
SP (EUL/NGL)- 7 Seats
PvdD (EUL/NGL)- 7 Seats
CDA (EPP)- 7 Seats
CU (EPP)- 6 Seats
Volt (G/EFA)- 6 Seats
BBB (*)- 6 Seats
FvD (ECR)- 5 Seats
Ja21 (ECR)- 5 Seats
SGP (ECR)- 3 Seats
DENK (*)- 3 Seats
BIJ1 (*)- 1 Seats
50PLUS (EPP)- 0 Seats
Others- 0 Seats


Next German Federal Election (Polling)
SPD (S&D)- 29.7%
CDU/CSU (EPP)- 20.9%
Grüne (G/EFA)- 15.9%
FDP (RE)- 11.4%
AfD (ID)- 11.2%
Linke (EUL/NGL)- 6.1%
Others/Undecided- 4.8%


Next Italian General Election (Polling)
FDI (ECR)- 20.7%
LEGA (ID)- 19.5%
PD (S&D)- 19.3%
M5S (*)- 13.7%
FI (EPP)- 6.2%
Azione (S&D)- 4.3%
SI (EUL/NGL)- 3.0%
Art.1 (S&D)- 2.8%
+EU (RE)- 2.7%
EV (G/EFA)- 2.5%
IV (RE)- 2.2%
CI (ECR\EPP)- 0.8%
Others/Undecided- 2.3%


Next Spanish General Election (Polling)
PSOE (S&D)- 27.1%
PP (EPP)- 26.4%
VOX (ECR)- 16.2%
UP (EUL/NGL)- 9.7%
MP (G/EFA)- 5.1%
Cs (RE)- 2.9%
Others/Undecided- 12.6%


Next Turkish Presidential Election (Polling)
AKP (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)- 43.8%
CHP (TBD)- 32.3%
İYİ (Meral Akşener)- 8.9%
HDP (TBD)- 7.8%
MHP (Devlet Bahçeli)- 2.9%
MP(Muharrem İnce)- 1.3%
Others/Undecided- 3.0%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Healthcare Time


Source: Flickr
DISCLAIMER: all tweets in this post are fake

WASHINGTON, D.C. - BREAKING: President Joe Biden announces next step on legislative agenda is Healthcare.

.....

"For too long, the United States neglected its healthcare system," the President announced in a speech, "we're too good, too great a country to have so many uninsured Americans. A public option will allow the United States to ensure every single American gets the healthcare they need- and bring competition that makes our great healthcare professionals even more innovative."

.....

As the President attemptes to achieve an unprecedented third major economic reform in two years, some Democrats are starting to get skeptical. "The White House is trying to bite off more than it can chew", said one Democratic leader who spoke on the condition of anonimity. Economist Lawrance Summers had even harsher words- inflation is already becoming a problem, he said, and the White House's ambitious steps will be "paid for by many generations to come."

.....

White House Spokesperson Jen Psaki dismissed these concerns. "The President has come to work and fix problems that concern many Americans, not sit on his hands. Everything in the plan will be paid for."








WILMINGTON, DELAWARE - Coming off legislative victories on pandemic relief, infraustracture and voting rights, President Biden is turning his attention to another Democratic priority- healthcare. Cheered on by progressives, the President is trying to use the new, reformed filibuster to get Congressional approval for a healthcare public option.

Since announcing his intent, the President got several more moderate U.S. Senators on board- in fact, a new Senate bill was quickly drafted by Colorado's Michael Bennet and Massachusetts' Elizabeth Warren, a team-up of a moderate and a progressive. The White House and Congressional leadership announced support for the bill.

However, the legislation faces a significant hurdle- Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), from the right-most cornet of the party, who were successfully maneuvered by the party to support Biden's Build Back Better agenda at the start of his Presidency, are reluctant. "Another major spending bill is out of the question," Manchin said yesterday, citing debt and inflation as his main concerns. Sinema, baffling Democrats, said she "does not support the bill in its current form", not offering any specifics. The opposition of the two Democrats puts President Biden's legislative agenda in danger of collapse ahead of a precarious midtern election.








WASHINGTON, D.C - In a major breakthrough for the dragging Democratic efforts to pass the Bidencare bill, Senator Manchin has reportedly agreed to support a new, more limited version of the bill that made the public option a thin one that required private additions, introduced by Senators Bennet and Mark Warner (D-VA), with Senator Warren quietly removing her name in order to make it more paltable to the West Virginia centrist.





NEW YORK CITY - Democrats, lead by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, are reportedly despairing of the prospects to pass a public option. Following Senator Sinema's statement that she opposes the Bennet-Warner bill, Senator Manchin backtracked his private assurances of support and announced his opposition, as well. Sources say that Senator Schumer's recent meeting with President Biden was tense, with Biden urging the New York Senator to "straighten up" his caucus after White House talks with the two centrists failed. However, Schumer made clear that there is little chance to convince the two, and urged Biden to seek a different priority.


WASHINGTON, D.C. - A bipartisan group of 10 Senators, including Democrats Manchin, Sinema, Casey Jr., Warner and Hassan and Republicans Portman, Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Cassidy have announced that they reached an agreement on a bill that expands medicare and medicaid in a limited fashion, covering among other things some dental and hearing costs, as well as increasing eligibility. This is supposed to replace the Bidencare bill that reached a dead end.

However, the passage of the bill is not guaranteed- Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) has announced a filibuster immediately after, and several other Senators, including Ted Cruz (R-TX), Bill Hagerty (R-TN) and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), said they will join him.


WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Senate's bipartisan healthcare bill has faced a major hurdle as the "bipartisan" title was stripped from it. Following a lengthy filibuster that included Senator Paul (R-KY) collapsing and receiving treatment, and massive pressure from leadership, all Republican co-sponsors have removed their name from the bill and announced they won't vote for it, citing "wrong timing".

Following this, Senator Manchin decried the move and said it "harms the health of our democracy".


WASHINGTON, D.C. - President Biden's months-long efforts to pass a healthcare bill suffered a massive defeat today as Senators Manchin (D-WV) and Sinema (D-AZ), key centrists, said leadership "must stop at once" the process of passing the bill, saying that "another lengthy speaking filibuster is doing grave damage to bipartisanship in Washington".  They've reportedly threatened to withhold their vote if the filibuster doesn't stop.




President Joe Biden Approval (April 1st)
Approve- 47.8%
Disapprove- 46.3%
Unsure- 5.9%

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris Approval (April 1st)
Disapprove- 50.5%
Approve- 42.3%
Unsure- 7.2%

Generic Cogressional Ballot (April 1st)
Democratic Party Candidate- 47.5%
Republican Party Candidate- 45.3%
Undecided/Others- 7.2%

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Midterms Loom


Source: Wikipedia

After their defeat on healthcare, Demcrats quickly shifted attention to the fast-approaching November midterm elections. Campaigning on his successes and consolidating Democrats, Biden managed to steadily increase his approvals again, and became a very in-demand surrogate for Democrats locked in close Senate and House battles.

While some Republicans went hard against the Biden administration on fiscal issues, the main focus was on social issues, including abortion, cancel culture and the so-called "critical race theory". Though the main focus on their campaign was Biden's covid-19 relief and infraustracture victories, Democrats also sensed an opportunity and attacked Republicans for the January 6th insurrection and for the harsh abortion ban passed in Texas, both issues that polls said motivated the Democratic base.

With a fairly friendly Senate map and a universal ban on gerrymandering tipping the House map a bit more in their direction, Democrats hoped to avoid the usual midterm curse and keep their trifecta in congress. However, before that could be put to the test, primary season was upon us, and there were many competitive primaries for the various open and swing seats in the Senate and the House. Both parties recruited many strong candidates, and the results created many interesting races.

Here is a quick summary of the key primary election results ahead of the 2022 midterms:

Alabama: In a state usually considered safe Republican, the retirement of longtime Senator Richard Shelby created an opportunity for many Republicans in the state. Shelby's handpicked successor, his former Chief of Staff and former Alabama Business Council CEO Katie Britt, faced major competition from far-right U.S. Representative Mo Brooks, former U.S. Representative Bradley Byrne, former Ambassador to Slovenia Lynda Blanchard, businesswoman Jessica Taylor and former Deputy Director of National Intelligence Cliff Sims, known for penning a Trump White House tell-all.

In the end, Brooks who had the endorsement of former President Trump won handily in a runoff against Britt. Democrats nominated State Representative and Party Chair Christopher England with little competition.

Alabama 2022 Senate Republican Primary (1st round Results):
U.S. Representative Mo Brooks- 42.4% ✓
Fmr. Chief of Staff Katie Britt- 15.8% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Bradley Byrne- 14.1%
Fmr. Advisor Cliff Sims- 10.5%
Fmr. Ambassador Lynda Blanchard- 9.0%
Businesswoman Jessica Taylor- 8.2%

Alabama 2022 Senate Republican Primary (2nd round Results):
U.S. Representative Mo Brooks- 59.3% ✓
Fmr. Chief of Staff Katie Britt- 40.7%

Alaska: After adopting a strange new electoral system, with a top-four open jungle primary followed by a RCV general election, Alaska was to hold one of the most interesting Senate races. Incumbent Lisa Murkowski, a relative moderate who voted to impeach Trump, was challenged by Kelly Tshibaka, the former Alaska Department of Administration commissioner who was endorsed by Trump and the state GOP. Democrats coalesed around State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson, and perennial candidate Dustin Darden ran for the Alaskan Independence Party.  These four are also the ones who advanced to the general election.

Alaska 2022 Senate Primary (Results):
Fmr. Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka- 36.4% ✓
State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson- 30.7% ✓
Senator Lisa Murkowski (I)- 27.5% ✓
Mr. Dustin Darden- 3.3% ✓
Others- 2.1%

Arizona: One of the key races to determine control of the Senate come 2023, Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly who won the 2020 special election will attempt to win a full, 6-year term. Kelly has been a reliable voter for the Biden agenda, but his personal popularity kept him with high approvals in the swing state. The Republican primary to contest the race was croweded, helmed by the conservative Attorney General Mike Brnovich, with far-right U.S. Representative Andy Biggs, Thiel Foundation President and Trump ally Blake Masters, retired Arizona National Guard General Michael McGuire, pro-Trump solar-business executive Jim Lamon, Corporation Commission member former TPUSA activist Justin Olson challenging him.

In the end, the election ended in an upset- Biggs, who was considered the more pro-Trump candidate, defeated Brnovich and won the Republican nomination. National Republicans expressed concern that a candidate who promoted conspiracy theories about the 2020 election results could struggle against Kelly.

Arizona 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Andy Biggs - 38.9% ✓
Attorney General Mike Brnovich- 34.0%
Thiel Foundation President Blake Masters- 11.4%
Ret. Major General Michael McGuire- 8.5%
Corporation Commission Member Justin Olson- 3.9%
Businessman Jim Lamon- 3.1%
Engineer Robert Paveza- 0.2%

California- In the seat formerly held by Vice President Harris, both the regular and special election will be held, with incumbent Alex Padilla heavily favoured to keep his place. The main interest in the jungle primary was whether a Republican or Democrat will come second and advance against Padilla to the general election, potentially weakening Republican enthusiasm. In the end, with no big-name Republicans running, Democrat Jerome Horton, a former State Assemblyman and member of the Board of Equalization, came second and denied Republicans access to the general election.

Colorado- In a fast-trending blue state, incumbent Senator Michael Bennet had been a powerful legislative ally of President Biden and hopes to win re-election despite the last midterms spellign doom for the incumbent President's candidates in the state. Republicans, hoping to win the seat despite long odds, nominated Olympic swimmer and veteran Eli Bremer, who defeated State Representative Ron Hanks, construction CEO Joe O'Dea, former Fort Collins City Councillor Gino Campana and others.

Colorado 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
Olympian Eli Bremer - 42.2% ✓
State Representative Ron Hanks- 29.8%
Fmr. City Councillor Gino Campana- 14.2%
Business Owner Joe O'Dea- 5.5%
Veteran Erik Aadland- 3.9%
Others- 4.4%

Florida- In a state that frustrated Democrats time and again, they hope to try and unseat Senator Marco Rubio, a Trump opponent turned ally who easily won his primary with the former President's endorsement.

A large field was created to challenge Rubio, including the popular Congresswoman Val Demings, controversial former Congressman Alan Grayson, Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell, former Justice Department special counsel William Sanchez, consultant Allen Ellison, former staffer and pro-normalization with Cuba activist Al Fox, teacher Josh Weil, attorney and stroke survivor Coleman Watson and others.

In the end, the result was unsurprising- Demings won the nomination and will challenge Rubio in the general election.

Florida 2022 Senate Democratic Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Val Demings - 38.3% ✓
City Commissioner Ken Russell- 35.4%
Fmr. Special Counsel William Sanchez- 8.5%
Attorney Coleman Watson- 5.8%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Alan Grayson- 5.6%
Consultant Allen Ellison- 3.2%
Teacher Josh Weil- 1.4%
Others- 1.8%

Georgia- After shocking the nation by winning a Georgia Senate seat for the Democratic party along with Jon Ossoff in 2020 and securing Democrats a 51-49 majority, Rephael Warnock proved a very visible Senator, advocating for voting rights and supporting the Biden agenda. Republicans want to take him down, but have to contend with a state in which the suburbs are quickly trending Democratic and there is a sizeable and pro-Democratic black population that Warnock, a pastor in MLK's Church, is very popular with.

Former professional football plater and Trump friend Herschel Walker, a black man, is the GOP's attempt to remedy it- but controversies such as support for conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and accusations of domestic violence by his ex caused some to doubt him. With strong backing from Trump, he defeated U.S. Representative Drew Ferguson, Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, Airforce veteran Kelvin King and former Trump White House staffer Latham Saddler.

Georgia 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
Football player Herschel Walker- 42.6% ✓
Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black- 30.7%
U.S. Representative Drew Ferguson- 21.9%
Fmr. White House official Latham Saddler- 3.1%
Airforce Veteran Kelvin King- 1.7%
Others- 0.0%

Iowa- After disappointing Democrats again and again with crushing defeats, Iowa will feature another high-stakes race. Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley, despite his very advanced age, is running for reelection. Determined to prove Iowa is still a swing state, Democrats had a competitive primary between former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer, retired Admiral Michael Franken, former State Representative Bob Krause, Minden City Councillor Glenn Hurst and former Crawford County Supervisor Dave Muhlbauer.

After a close race between Finkenauer and Franken, the former prevailed and will hope to unseat Grassley.

Iowa 2022 Senate Democratic Primary (Results):
Fmr. U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer - 48.7% ✓
Ret. U.S. Navy Admiral Michael Franken- 43.6%
Fmr. State Representative Bob Krause- 5.8%
City Councillor Glenn Hurst- 4.1%
Fmr. County Supervisor Dave Muhlbauer- 2.6%
Others- 0.0%

Missouri- A now-safe state for Republicans, Missouri features an open Senate seat with the retirement of Senator Roy Blunt. A myriad of candidates announced, including former Governor Eric Greitens who resigned after being charged with several felonies and later accused of sexual assault, U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler, U.S. Representative Billy Long, State Attorney General and former State Treasurer Eric Schmitt, attorney 2020 RNC speaker Mark McCloskey who threatened to murder BLM protestors with his gun, and others.

In what was considered a huge upset, Billy Long won the Senate nomination by a razor-thing margin. He's considered a beneficiary of Greiten's campaign collapsing in the final weeks of the race, which also contributed to a surprising overperformance for McCloskey, who made it effectively a 5-way race. Long will face the Democratic nominee, veteran Lucas Kunce, in the general election.

Missouri 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Billy Long- 19.7% ✓
State Attorney General Eric Schmitt- 19.5%
U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler- 19.3%
Fmr. Governor Eric Greitens- 18.5%
Attorney Mark McCloskey- 17.3%
Others- 5.7%

Nevada- While this Senate race would be one of the most important and competitive in the midterms, with Democrats hoping that their decline with hispanic voters in 2020 doesn't harm their chances of holding this crucial seat, the primaries weren't competitive- both incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican former Attorney General Adam Laxalt were easily nominated, and would face off in the general election.

New Hampshire- The race considered potentially the toughest hold for Democrats in 2022 featured a surprising Republican primary between Governor Chris Sununu, the Republican hope for taking the seat, and retired Brigadier General Don Bolduc, a conservative who endorsed the false conspiracy theory that Trump won the 2020 election. Reportedly, after Sununu refused to publicly back Trump's election fraud claims, the former President endorsed Bolduc in the primary. This caused a narrow victory for Bolduc, to the horror of national Republicans, and the relief of Democrats, chiefly incumbent Maggie Hassan who is running for reelection.

New Hampshire 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
Ret. Brigadier General Donald Bolduc- 50.0% ✓
Governor Chris Sununu- 48.6%
Others- 1.4%

North Carolina- A competitive open seat created by the retirement of Senator Richard Burr, who voted to impeach Trump in the second time. Republicans hope to keep it in a Biden midterm, and had a primary between several strong candidates- Lara Trump, the former President's daughter in law, former Governor Pat McRory, who lost in 2020 after a controversial anti-trans bathroom law and was endorsed by Burr, former U.S. Representative Mark Walker, former State Senator Dave Curtis, author Marjorie Eastman and others. In the end, the Trump name prevailed and the President's daughter won the nomination, a move some Republicans considered risky because of her inexperience and the former President's narrow loss in North Carolina in 2020.

Democrats, after taking the state's other Senate seat in 2020 with Senator Jeff Jackson, hope to do it again and had a competitive primary between former State Senator Cal Cunningham, former U.S. Representative Heath Shuler, State Senator Erica Smith, former NASA Astronaut Joan Higginbotham, Beaufort Mayor Rett Newton and scientist Richard Watkins III. Higginbotham, bolstered by pro-women groups and her stature as a former Astronaut, won the primary in an upset, defeating the frontrunner Cunninhham, and is conisdered a very strong candidate for the general election.

North Carolina 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
TV Producer Lara Trump- 43.3% ✓
Fmr. Governor Pat McRory- 35.6%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Mark Walker- 15.4%
Author Marjorie Eastman- 2.6%
Fmr. State Senator Dave Curtis- 1.9%
Others- 1.2%

North Carolina 2022 Senate Democratic Primary (Results):
NASA Astronaut Joan Higginbotham - 40.1% ✓
Fmr. State Senator Cal Cunningham- 25.7%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Heath Shuler- 14.4%
Fmr. State Senator Erica Smith- 12.6%
Scientist Richard Watkins III- 3.0%
Mayor Rett Newton- 1.7%
Others- 2.5%

Ohio- Another state running away from Democrats in recent years, Ohio saw the retirement of the relatively moderate Senator Rob Portman create an open seat with competitive primaries for both parties.

On the Republican side, a wild race to the bottom was held between several candidates, each trying to prove he's more extreme than the other with some very strange and bewildering takes- former State Treasurer Josh Mandel (who said, among many other things, that Afghan refugees threaten the Judeo-Christian way of life, that George Soros orchestrated covid-19, BLM and Antifa, and created a racist Twitter poll of "which type of illegals" commits more crimes), far-right populist author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance, U.S. Representative Mike Turner, former Ohio GOP Chair Jane Timken, banker Mike Gibbons, State Senator Matt Dolan running as a non-Trumpist and businessman Bernie Moreno. In the end, Mandel won as expected, despite his radical positioning.

Meanwhile, the Democrats had a less crowded primary- a race between U.S. Representative Tim Ryan and former CFPB advisor Morgan Harper. Ryan won easily.

Ohio 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. State Treasurer Josh Mandel- 27.2% ✓
U.S. Representative Mike Turner- 18.6%
Fmr. Ohio GOP Chair Jane Timken- 15.4%
Venture capitalist J.D. Vance- 11.8%
State Senator Matt Dolan- 10.3%
Businessman Mike Gibbons- 8.7%
Businessman Bernie Moreno- 5.9%
Others- 2.1%

Ohio 2022 Senate Democratic Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Tim Ryan - 67.7%% ✓
Fmr. CFPB Advisor Morgan Harper- 28.5%
Others- 3.8%

Pennsylvania- Possibly the most competitive race in 2022, Pennsylvania's incumbent Pat Toomey, who also voted to impeach Trump, is retiring. Both parties are fighting hard to replace him.

On the Republican side, the recruitment efforts were disturbed by Trump's interventions like in many similar races, and the list of candidates was described a "B list" or even "D List". The main candidates were veteran and former Congressional candidate Sean Parnell, endorsed by Trump after supporting his election fraud lies, moderate former Congressman Ryan Costello, former Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands, businessman and whistleblower Everett Stern, businessman Jeff Bartos, political commentator and former congressional candidate Kathy Barnette, attorney Sean Gale and former Secretary of the Navy Kenneth Braithwaite. Parnell, unsurprisingly, won the nomination quite easily.

Democrats had a race between some very high-profile and strong candidates: Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, Montgomery County Commission Chair Val Arkoosh, State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta, State Senator Sharif Street, State Representative Sara Innamorato, and others. After a very tight race, Lamb prevailed and became the Democratic nominee.

Pennsylvania 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
Veteran Sean Parnell- 36.0% ✓
Businessman Jeff Bartos- 21.5%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Ryan Costello- 15.3%
Commentator Kathy Barnette- 14.8%
Fmr. Secretary of the Navy Kenneth Braithwaite- 6.4%
Fmr. Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands- 2.9%
Attorney Sean Gale- 2.0%
Others- 1.1%

Pennsylvania 2022 Senate Democratic Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Conor Lamb - 30.9% ✓
Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman- 28.2%%
State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta- 14.9%
Montgomery Commission Chair Val Arkoosh- 13.3%
State Senator Sharif Street- 5.7%
State Representative Sara Innamorato- 4.5%
Others- 2.5%

Wisconson- After long contemplation, the controversial Republican Senator Ron Johnson decided that he won't seek reelection. The Republican primary to replace him wasn't as crowded as expected, dominated by U.S. Representative Mike Gallagher, a conservative who previously opposed efforts to overturn the 2020 elections, and former Representative Sean Duffy, a Trump-backed conservative, along with businessman Kevin Nicholson presenting himself as the rightmost candidate. After a tight battle, Duffy won the primary.

Among the Democrats, the frontrunner was Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns, with another strong candidate in State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski. Other candidates were Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, Milwaukee Bucks Vice Presidet Alex Lasry, Milwaukee Alderwoman Chantia Lewis, radiologist Gillian Battino, activist Steven Olikara, attorney Peter Peckarsky and others. Burns, without much competition, won the nomination with backing from national Democrats.

Wisconsin 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
Former U.S. Representative Sean Duffy- 44.9% ✓
U.S. Representative Mike Gallagher- 41.9%
Businessman Kevin Nicholson- 12.8%
Others- 0.4%

Wisconson 2022 Senate Democratic Primary (Results):
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns - 46.1% ✓
State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski- 22.4%%
Businessman Alex Lasry- 11.3%
County Executive Tom Nelson- 8.7%
Activist Steven Olikara- 4.9%
Attorney Peter Peckarsky- 3.6%
Radiologist Gillian Battino- 1.2%
Alderwoman Chantia Lewis- 0.8%
Others- 1.0%

All in all, a very interesting election is shaping up. Democrats can be satisfied with some strong recruitment for key races, while Republicans hope that the usual midterm trends will benefit them.

One noted result from the primaries is that every Republican candidate in an open primary has been a strong supporter of former President Trump and his election fraud lies- Mo Brooks, Kelly Tshibaka, Herschel Walker, Billy Long, Don Bolduc, Lara Trump, Josh Mandel, Sean Parnell and Sean Duffy. In fact, the only one who isn't a clear-cut Big Lie endorser is Colorado's nominee Eli Bremer.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Midterms Loom - Gubernatorial Edition (Part 1)

Along with the Senate races, the midterms will also feature many key gubernatorial races. Both Democrats and Republicans will be on the defensive, and the offensive. We will now summarize the key gubernatorial races of 2022.

Alaska- With a jungle primary concluding with a RCV general election between the top 4 just like in the Senate race, Alaska was bound for an interesting gubernatorial primary. Incumbent Mike Dunleavy, accused by Democrats of destroying the environment, is facing Democratic former State Legislator Les Gara, the independent former Governor Bill Walker and Libertarian Billy Toein. Since they were the only four candidates, all advance to the general election.

Alaska 2022 Gubernatorial Primary (Results):
Governor Mike Dunleavy (I)- 41.6% ✓
Fmr. Governor Bill Walker- 33.8% ✓
Fmr. State Representative Les Gara- 20.5% ✓
Mr. William "Billy"Toein- 4.1% ✓

Arizona- This key swing state has a major gubernatorial race along with its Senate race, open on both sides with GOP Governor Doug Ducey term-limited. Republicans had a crowded primary that included State Treasurer Kimberly Yee, former Congressman Matt Salmon, Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson, businessman and 2018 Secretary of State nominee Steve Gaynor, conservative news anchor Kari Lake, and skincare company executive Daniel McCarthy.

Just like in the Senate primary, Trump's canddiate Lake defeated the less radical Yee and Salmon. Lake is a major booster of Trump's election conspiracy theories.

Among Democrats, the competition was much less fierce. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, the favourite, beat former Nogales Mayor Marco López Jr. and State Rep. Aaron Lieberman by a wide margin.

Arizona 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
TV Anchor Kari Lake- 32.6% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Matt Salmon- 29.0%
State Treasurer Kimberly Yee- 22.5%
Businessman Steve Gaynor- 8.1%
Regent Karrin Taylor Robson- 5.6%
Businessman Daniel McCarthy- 1.7%
Others- 0.5%

Arizona 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Secretary of State Katie Hobbs- 63.2% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Marco López Jr.- 25.4%
State Representative Aaron Lieberman- 11.4%

Arksnasa- Even though it was not expected to be competitive in the general, Arkansas had an open gubernatorial seat with an interesting Republican primary. It pitted experience establishment favourite Leslie Rutledge, the incumbent State Attorney General, against the visible, Trump-backed former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee-Sanders, the daughter of former Governor Mike Huckabee. In a close race between a local politician and a nationalized Trumpist figure, the latter prevailed when Huckabee-Sanders won a close race. Democrats nominated entrepreneur Supha Xayprasith-Mays, who hopes to do the impossible and beat the controversial Republican.

Arksansas 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee-Sanders- 55.1% ✓
Attorney General Leslie Rutledge- 44.9%

California- After losing the 2021 recall election, California Republicans weren't very motivated, but were ready to try again. Despite missing the runoff in the Senate race, they did manage to get into the second round of the gubernatorial race with their 2021 leading candidate- conservative talkshow host Larry Elder.

California 2022 Gubernatorial Primary (Results):
Governor Gavin Newsome (I)- 54.9% ✓
Talkshow Host Larry Elder- 17.1% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Kevin Faulconer- 12.7%
Businessman John Cox- 6.8%
Landlord Kevin Paffrath- 3.3%
Activist Louis J. Marinelli- 1.5%
Reality Star Caitlyn Jenner- 1.2%
Others- 2.5%

Colorado- With the popular Governor Jared Polis running for reelection in an increasingly liberal state, Republicans had a large but thin field, with no major candidate except University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl, the state's only statewide elected Republican, who won the nomination, beating her closest rival, former Parker Mayor and 2018 candidate Greg Lopez.

Colorado 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
UC Regent Heidi Ganahl- 61.6% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Greg Lopez- 24.9%
Fmr. Mayor Benjamin Huseman- 6.3%
Veteran Jim Rundberg- 1.1%
Others- 6.1%

Florida- Republican Ron DeSantis is not only one of the most hated Republicans among Democratic activists, but also the tentative frontrunner of the 2024 Republican Presidential primary in case Trump doesn't run. This leads to a very nationalized race, with U.S. Representative and former Governor Charlie Crist, Agriculture Commissioner and the only statewide elected Democrat Nikki Fried and State Senator Annette Taddeo. After a spirited primary, Crist won the nomination to face DeSantis.

Florida 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Charlie Crist - 38.2% ✓
Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried- 31.9%
State Senator Annette Taddeo- 29.5%
Others- 0.4%

Georgia- Initially looking like he's vulnerable to a challenge from a pro-election conspiracy candidate, Georgia governor Brian Kemp, who came under fire from Trump for refusing to tamper with election results showing Biden won the state, easily took down his chief challenger- former State Representative and Democrat-turned-Republican Vernon Jones. Among Democrats, their star in the state, 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, is running for a rematch.

Georgia 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Governor Brian Kemp (I)- 60.9% ✓
Fmr. State Representative Vernon Jones- 33.1%
Educator Kandiss Taylor- 5.7%
Others- 0.3%

Hawaii- With incumbent Governor David *ge term-limited, Democrats had an open primary in which the winner was pretty much guaranteed to go on and become the next Governor. The candidates were former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell, a moderate Democrat who was deeply unpopular by the end of his tenure, former First Lady Vicky Cayetano, Lieutenant Governor Josh Green, former Lieutenant Governor Doug Chin and former U.S. Representative Colleen Hanabusa. After a tight primary, Hanabusa won an upset and finally returned to political prominence. Republicans nominated martial artist B.J. Penn against her.

Hawaii 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Fmr. U.S. Representative Colleen Hanabusa - 27.0% ✓
Lieutenant Governor Josh Green- 25.9%
Fmr. First Lady Vicky Cayetano- 19.6%
Fmr. Mayor kirk Caldwell- 15.2%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Doug Chin- 12.3%

Idaho- Despite incumbent Governor Brad Little running for reelection, he had several challengers from the right, most notably Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeachin, along with anti-government activist Ammon Bundy and others.

In the end, however, Little prevailed and defeated his Lieutenant Governor.

Idaho 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Governor Brad Little (I)- 59.7% ✓
Lieutenant Governor anice McGeachin- 33.1%
Activist Ammon Bundy- 4.4%
Others- 2.8%

Illinois- Despite many progressives doubting him in 2018, Governor J.B. Pritzker had been very popular among Democrats. In an increasingly polarized environment Republicans have little hope of unseating him, especially after nominating conservative State Senator
Darren Bailey.

Iowa- With Democrats feeling little hope of beating Republican incumbent Kim Reynolds, their field was fairly thin, with their stars, Congresswoman Cindy Axne and Auditor Rob Sand, deciding to run for reelection. Businessman and 2018 Secretary of State nominee Deidre DeJear, State Representative Ras Smith and State Senator Pam Jochum were the only candidates in the race. In the end, Smith prevailed.

Iowa 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
State Representative Ras Smith - 45.5% ✓
State Senator Pam Jochum- 42.5%
Businessman Deidre DeJear- 11.8%
Others- 0.7%

Kansas- In this conservative state, incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly is one of the most vulnerabel Democratic Governors. The Republicans nominated Attorney General Derek Schmidt against her with little opposition.

Maine- Former Governor Paul LePage, a very controversial right-wing Republican, is trying a comeback in the swing state of Maine, running against the incumbent Democrat, Janet Mills and backed by moderate Susan Collins. Both were nominated with little opposition.

Maryland- With incumbent Republican Larry Hogan, a rare Republican who managed to win impressing victories in the liberal north-east, term-limited, his party hopes to do the impossible and keep his seat. The candidates were Delegate Daniel Cox, former Delegate and perenniel candidate Robin Ficker, Secretary of Commerce and former Delegate Kelly Schulz, Secretary of Natural Resources and former Delegate Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio, former Lieutenant Governor and RNC Chair Michael Steele, former Anne Arundel County Executive Steve Schuh and attorney Joe Werner (a former Democrat). In the end, Steele surprisingly emerged victorious, becoming a rare moderate Republican in the world of a hard-right GOP.

The field of Democrat seeing a golden opportunity for a high position was even larger- State Comptroller Peter Franchot, former Attorney General Doug Gansler, former Prince George's County Executive and 2018 Gubernatorial candidate Rushern Baker, former U.S. Secretary of Education John King, former U.S. Secretary of Labor and DNC Chair Tom Perez, author and entrepreneur Wes Moore, former Obama Administration official Ashwani Jain, businessman Mike Rosenbaum and nonprofit executive Jon Baron. In an upset, Perez emerged as the winner, and the likely next Governor of Maryland- pitting former Chairs of the RNC and the DNC.

Maryland 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. RNC Chair Michael Steele- 25.0% ✓
Maryland Secretary of Commerce Kelly Schulz- 23.8%
Fmr. Anne Arundel County Executive Steve Schuh- 22.3%
State Delegate Daniel Cox- 13.9%
Maryland Secretary of Natural Resources Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio- 11.3%
Fmr. State Delegate Robin Ficker- 3.1%
Attorney Joe Werner- 0.6%

Maryland 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Fmr. DNC Chair Tom Perez- 21.7% ✓
State Comptroller Peter Franchot- 21.1%
Fmr. Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker- 17.5%
Fmr. Attorney General Doug Gansler- 12.0%
Fmr. U.S. Secretary of Education John King- 10.9%
Author Wes Moore- 9.6%
Businessman Mike Rosenbaum- 3.2%
Mr. Ashwani Jain- 2.7%
Mr. Jon Baron- 1.3%

Massachusetts- In another liberal northeastern state with a Republican Governor, incumbent Governor Charlie Baker was very popular with voters overall and almost guaranteed reelection- if only he emerged from the Republican primary. Unfourtunately for him, he was challenged by former State Representative and 2018 Senate nominee Geoff Diehl, a Trump-endorsed conservative. The primary between them was tough, with Baker arguing for his electabiliy and Diehl saying he doesn't represent Republican voters. In the end, Diehl took down Baker.

Among the Democrats, Attorney General Maura Healey was easily chosen as the nominee, beating State Senator Sonia Chang-Díaz, former State Senator Benjamin Downing, and political science professor Danielle Allen.

Massachusetts 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. State Representative Geoff Diehl- 52.4% ✓
Governor Charlie Baker (I)- 47.5%
Others- 0.1%

Massachusetts 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Attorney General Maura Healey- 52.3% ✓
State Senator Sonia Chang-Díaz- 28.2%
Professor Danielle Allen- 12.4%
Fmr. State Senator Benjamin Downing- 6.8%
Others- 0.3%

Michigan- One of the Democratic Governors most disliked by Republicans, even facing a kidnap plot during the covid-19 lockdowns, Gretchen Whitmer prepared to face a tough race in a presumably hostile political environment. The Republicans nominated former Detroit Police Chief James Craig against her, defeating businessman and nominee for Governor in 2018 and Senator in 2020, former Attorney General Mike Cox, businessman Garrett Soldano and others.

Michigan 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. Police Chief James Craig- 29.8% ✓
Businessman John James- 27.5%
Fmr. Attorney General Mike Cox- 17.4%
Businessman Garrett Soldano- 9.0%
TV Commentator Tudor Dixon- 4.6%
State Police Captain Mike Brown- 4.1%
Businessman Austin Chenge- 2.3%
Planning Commissioner Allan Kelley- 1.8%
Others- 3.5%

Minnesota- Tim Walz, considered fairly popular, was still a target Republicans hoped to take out. Initially, State Senator and former Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka, former State Senator and notorious covid denialist Scott Jensen, State Senator Michelle Benson, former State GOP Chair Jennifer Carnahan and others ran. However, the entrance of MyPillow CEO and notorious election conspiracy backer Mike Lindell scrambled the field. Carnahan dropped out, and Lindell ended up easily winning the nomination.

Minnesota 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Businessman Mike Lindell- 40.0% ✓
State Senator Paul Gazelka- 30.6%
Fmr. State Senator Scott Jensen- 13.1%
State Senator Michelle Benson- 11.6%
Others- 4.7%

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Midterms Loom - Gubernatorial Edition (Part 2)

Nebraska- With Governor Pete Ricketts term-limited, the Republican open field in this conservative state drew a large field. Former Governor Dave Heineman, rancher and pro-Trump activist Charles Herbster, State Senator Brett Lindstrom and University of Nebraska Board of Regents member Jim Pillen. In the end, Heineman used his name recognition to emerge with the win, and will likely take his old office again. Democrats nominated State Senator Carol Blood.

Nebraska 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. Governor Dave Heineman- 41.2% ✓
Rancher Charles Herbster- 29.2%
Regent Jim Pillen- 27.4%
State Senator Brett Lindstrom- 15.6%
Others- 2.2%

Nevada- In another of the GOP's major targets this year, Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, was challenged by a wide Republican field featuring former U.S. Senator Dean Heller, U.S. Representative Mark Amodei, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, attorney and retired professional boxer Joey Gilbert, Las Vegas City Councillor Michele Fiore and others. In a rare win for a non-radical, Heller won the nomination.

Nevada 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. Senator Dean Heller- 28.6% ✓
Sheriff Joe Lombardo- 26.9%
U.S. Representative Mark Amodei- 19.7%
Attorney Joey Gilbert- 17.4%
Mayor John Lee- 3.6%
Others- 3.8%

New Hampshire- With Governor Chris Sununu going for a failed Senate run, the race to replace him featured a crowded two-way open field. Among the Republicans, two former Senators, Kelly Ayotte and Scott Brown (who represented Massachusetts), were running, as well as former Franklin City Councilor Karen Testerman. Ayotte took the win with her name recognition. The Democratic field was scrambled by the entrance of former U.S. Representative Carol Shea-Porter, who was handily nominated.

New Hampshire 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. Senator Kelly Ayotte- 70.4% ✓
Fmr. Senator Scott Brown- 25.9%
Fmr. City Councilor Karen Testerman- 3.7%

New Mexico- Believing they could break through in the state this year, the GOP makes serious efforts to challenge Michelle Lujan Grisham. Former weatherman and 2020 Senate nominee Mark Ronchetti, Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block, State Rep. Rebecca Dow, businessman Louie Sanchez and veteran Gregory Zanetti ran against her, with Ronchetti emerging victorious due to his name recognition and perceived electability.

New Mexico 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. Weatherman Mark Ronchetti- 37.7% ✓
County Commissioner Jay Block- 30.7%
State Representative Rebecca Dow- 19.6%
Veteran Gregory Zanetti- 8.8%
Businessman Louie Sanchez- 2.6%
Others- 0.6%

New York- The gubernatorial race in the Empire State became interesting when Andrew Cuomo, marred by sexual harrassment allegations, resigned from his Governorship. The new Governor, former Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul, was challenged by former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams. However, she easily defeated the competition.

On the Republican side, despite little hope of winning, there was a contest between Andrew Giuliani, a Newsmax TV personality and son of the Trump-friendly former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Congressman Lee Zeldin, former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, Lewis County Sheriff Mike Carpinelli and others. Despite Giuliani's support among the right, Zeldin narrowly prevailed.

New York 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Governor Kathy Hochul (I)- 51.6% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Bill de Blasio- 25.9%
Public Advocate Jumaane Williams- 22.5%

New York 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin- 44.9% ✓
Mr. Andrew Giuliani- 38.6%
Fmr. County Executive Rob Astorino- 13.5%
Sheriff Mike Carpinelli- 1.7%
Others- 1.3%

Ohio- After choosing to pursue a prudent covid-19 policy, Governor Mike DeWine faced a tough primary from former Representative Jim Renacci. In the end, he narrowly prevailed, surprising some observers who expected an easy Renacci win. Democrats had a contest between two candidates as well- Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley and Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley. Despite being the Mayor of the smaller town, Whaley prevailed.

Ohio 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Governor Mike DeWine (I)- 44.9% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Jim Renacci- 38.6%
Farmer Joe Blystone- 3.2%

Ohio 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Mayor Nan Whaley- 51.6% ✓
Mayor John Cranley- 25.9%

Oklahoma- In this heavily Republican state, Democrats had little hope, but they still got a very formidable nominee- Joy Hofmeister, the Republican-turned-Democrat State Superintendent, who defeated progressive former State Senator Connie Johnson in the primary. Incumbent Republican Governor Kevin Stitt defeated his vaccine-skeptic primary opponent, Mark Sherwood.

Oklahoma 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister- 51.6% ✓
Former State Senator Connie Johnson- 25.9%

Oregon- With Governor Kate Brown retiring, Oregon finally had a competitive Democratic primary between State House Speaker Tina Kotek, State Treasurer Tobias Read, Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum NYT Columnist Nicholas Kristof, Yamhill County Commissioner Casey Kulla and others. Kotek, the state party favourite, emerged as the victor. Republicans nominated Dr. Bud Pierce, their 2016 nominee, who defeated a large field of minor candidates including Baker City Mayor Kerry McQuisten, entrepreneur Nick Hess, Sandy Mayor Stan Pulliam and Oregon Institute of Technology Board of Trustees member Jessica Gomez. Along with Pierce, Democratic State Senator Betsy Johnson also announced an independent run to challenge Kotek.

Oregon 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
State House Speaker Tina Kotek- 31.9% ✓
State Treasurer Tobias Read- 28.5%
Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum- 25.3%
County Commissioner Casey Kulla- 5.7%
Journalist Nicholas Kristof- 5.2%
Others- 3.4%

Oregon 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Dr. Bud Pierce- 35.9% ✓
Mayor Stan Pulliam- 29.4%
Mayor Kerry McQuisten- 16.8%
Trustee Jessica Gomez- 8.6%
Entrepreneur Nick Hess- 2.9%
Others- 6.4%

Pennsylvania- Just like its Senate race, the gubernatorial race in Pennsylvania is considered one of the most important key races in the country. Democrats fielded a very formidable candidate in Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who won without contest, and Republicans had a contested primary between former U.S. Representative and 2018 Senate nominee Lou Barletta, State Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman, State Senator Scott Martin, State Senator Dan Laughlin (running as a pragmatist Republican), State Senator Doug Mastriano, former U.S. Attorney William McSwain, American Conservative Union Vice Chair Charlie Gerow, Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale, former Corry Mayor Jason Monn, attorney Jason Richey, Chester County Chamber of Commerce CEO Guy Ciarrocchi, renowned cardiothoracic Nche Zama and others. Mastriano, running as a far-right pro-Trump candidate who promotes election conspiracy theories, emerged with the win, beating out the favourite Barletta.

Pennsylvania 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
State Senator Doug Mastriano- 22.0% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Lou Barletta- 18.3%
State Senator Jake Corman- 13.5%
State Senator Scott Martin- 9.5%
State Senator Dan Laughlin- 7.9%
Fmr. U.S. Attorney William McSwain- 7.4%
County Commissioner Joe Gale- 5.7%
Attorney Jason Richey- 3.7%
Activist Charlie Gerow- 3.4%
Fmr. Mayor Mayor Jason Monn- 2.8%
Mr. Guy Ciarrocchi- 2.6%
Dr. Nche Zama- 1.9%
Others- 1.3%

Rhode Island- With the former Governor Gina Raimondo becoming Commerce Secretary, the Rhode Island Democratic gubernatorial primary got a bit less open- Lieutenant turned Governor Daniel McKee became the incumbent. However, his relatively conservative positions put him on course for a tough primary, with Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, General Treasurer Seth Magaziner, former Secretary of State and 2018 gubernatorial challenger Matt Brown and businesswoman and Dodd family member Helena Foulkes running against him. In the end, Gorbea prevailed in a close primary and will face the Republican nominee, State House Minority Leader Blake Filippi, in the general.

Rhode Island 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea- 27.6% ✓
General Treasurer Seth Magaziner- 23.2%
Governor Daniel McKee (I)- 21.1%
Fmr. Secretary of State Matt Brown- 19.6%
Businesswoman Helena Foulkes- 7.0%
Others- 1.5%

South Carolina- In this heavily Republican-leaning state, Democrats have little chance of beating Governor Henry McMaster. However, they still got a strong candidate in former Congressman Joe Cunningham, who defeated State Senator Mia McLeod and social justice advocate Gary Votour in the primary.

South Carolina 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Fmr. U.S. Representative Joe Cunningham- 55.1% ✓
State Senator Mia McLeod- 39.6%
Activist Gary Votour- 5.3%

Texas- After his landslide victory in the 2018 gubernatorial election, Governor Greg Abbott became one of the most hated Republicans by Democrats, due to being the face of the harshest anti-abortion law in the country, an opposition to vaccine mandates and a failure to handle a cold weather crisis in 2021 that resulted from the lack of investment in electricity infraustracture but resulted in numerous deaths but that he blamed on Democrats. However, he was still primaried from the right by former state GOP Chair and Florida Congressman Allen West, former State Senator Don Huffines, Youtuber and right wing activist Chad Prather and others. Unsurprisingly, with Trump's endorsement, Abbott turned back the challenges. Democrats easily nominated former Congressman, 2018 Senate nominee and 2020 Presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke, but the race was turned on its head when actor Matthew McConaughey announced an independent bid with vague positions on the issues.

Texas 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Governor Greg Abbott (I)- 57.4% ✓
Fmr. Texas GOP Chair Allen West- 20.4%
Fmr. State Senator Don Huffines- 16.8%
Activist Chad Prather- 2.3%
Others- 3.1%

Vermont- After his landslide victory in 2020, Governor Phil Scott remained popular due to his covid-19 handling and his support for the Biden Administration's vaccine mandates despite being a Republican. Democrats still nominated former Vermont Education Secretary Rebecca Holcombe against him. Neither faced significant primaries.

Wisconsin- After defeating Scott Walker in 2018, Governor Tony Evers tried to govern as a progressive Democrat, but faced obstruction to anything he tried to do from local Republicans, who controlled the gerrymandered State House and Senate. Now, these same Republicans itch to defeat him. Those that announced included former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, State Senate President Chris Kapenga, State Assemblyman John Macco, businessman Jonathan Wichmann and others. In the end, Kapenga defeated Kleefisch and would go on to challenge Evers.

Wisconsin 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
State Senator Chris Kapenga- 45.7% ✓
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch- 43.2%
State Assemblyman John Macco- 8.6%
Businessman Jonathan Wichmann- 1.8%
Others- 0.7%