Boring is Back

[America Needs R'hllor]

Chuck

Source: Wikipedia Commons

September 23rd, 2021

By August, Covid-19 relief and infraustracture were both success stories. President Biden was very popular, keeping his approval ratings at the 55-60 area, and even congressional Demcorats enjoyed some of that popularity in opinion polling. Things were looking good. Then, a new covid-19 wave and a chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan harmed the President and his approvals sunk. Since then, the situation in Afghanistan started taking less and less attention, and the coronavirus numbers seemed to stabilize. Biden's numbers, similarly, stabilized.

Chuck was hopeful, but also anxious today. The reason was that his greatest and most important challenge as Senate Majority Leader was still ahead of him- democracy reform. The Democratic Party's flagship bill, H.R.1, For the People Act, included provisions that protected voting rights, sought to expand turnout and banned gerrymandering. They all knew how important it was- gerrymandering had long been among the greatest plagues on American demoracy, but now, in 2022, Democrats were almost certain to lose the House if they didn't act to prevent it. With all the progress they were making, Chuck couldn't fathom letting Republicans take minoritarian rule without a fight.

There was a problem, though- a thorn at this side. Or rather, two thorns. Senator Joe Manchin, Senator Kyrsten Sinema. With a majority of just 51, he needed at least one of them to support him in the two necessary steps towards passing H.R.1: reforming the filibuster and actually passing the bill. It seemed nearly impossible, as they both refused to abolish the filibuster and Manchin outright refused to support the bill and didn't think it was a good way to go forward.

But recently, through discussions with the White House and Speaker Pelosi, a strategy was beginning to form in his mind, and it was nearly time to execute it. His office phone rang, and he picked up. "It's Senator Kelly, sir." His secretary said. "Good," he responded.

"Hey, Chuck," Mark Kelly said on the other side. He sounded a bit disappointed. "I talked to Kyrsten."

"What did she say?" Schumer asked.

"She won't support any reform to the filibuster. Not even a speaking filibuster and shifting the burden to the minority."

"Not even if Joe supports it?"

Mark went silent for a moment. "The President?"

"The West Virginia Senator."

"Oh. Yeah, I told her we might have his vote, she said it doesn't matter. I think she's a true believer, Chuck, she really doesn't want to reform the filibuster."

The Senate Leader wasn't surprised. He already planned accordingly. "Ok. Thanks, Mark."

While both were a bother to deal with, Chuck perceived that Joe and Kyrsten were a bit different. They had different priorities, and they were stubborn on different issues. On the filibuster, Manchin was actually the one who was a bit more moveable. He had been speaking to Manchin for a while now, careful not to offend him, and included some nice provisions for West Virginia in the Senate version of the Build Back Better Act. Now, with Republicans refusing to support any of the infraustracture packages, Joe was angry at their refusal to work with him- and Chuck, along with Dick Durbin, kept talking to him about "nudging" them in that direction by introducing a talking filibuster with the burden to present 41 against the proposal in the chamber at all times on the minority. The West Virginia centrist was reluctant, but it seemed like he was finally convinced now.

They were moving forward, Chuck decided, even without Sinema. And once this was done, they were going to pass H.R.1- without Manchin, who didn't want to support many crucial provisions in the bill, but with Sinema, who was a co-sponsor. It was a two-stage plan using both of the trouble makers that, hopefully, would end up in victory. Then, with democracy shored up, they'll be able to focus on the midterms.

U.S. President Joe Biden Approval (September 23rd)
Approve- 50.8%
Disapprove- 46.5%
Unsure- 2.7%
APPROVE +4.3%

Generic Cogressional Ballot (September 23rd)
Democratic Party Candidate- 49.0%
Republican Party Candidate- 44.3%
Undecided/Others- 6.7%
DEMOCRATIC +4.7%

[America Needs R'hllor]

September 2021 Elections - Germany and Canada


Sources: Wikimedia, Flickr

In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called an early election for September 2021, just two years after the last election, in an attempt to earn a parliamentary majority. He would come to regret it, as early polls showed a Liberal Party collapse and Conservative Party surge, voters being unconvinced about the necessity of an election.

By September, after several successful debates, polls seemed to stabilize, and Trudeau's party slowly crawled back to a lead, owing mostly to a decline for the Conservatives and a rise for the NDP. In the end, Trudeau won a bitter victory, his party falling in seats and being forced to rely on NDP for another minority government.

2021 Canadian Federal Election (Results)
Liberal (Justin Trudeau)- 32.0% (145 Seats)
Conservative (Erin O'Toole)- 34.9% (136 Seats)
New Democratic (Jagmeet Singh)- 19.1% (32 Seats)
Bloc Québécois (Yves-François Blanchet)- 5.8% (24 Seats)
Green (Annamie Paul)- 4.3% (2 Seats)
People's (Maxime Bernier)- 2.4% (0 Seats)
Others- 1.5% (0 Seats)

The NDP were generally satisfied with their result, while the Bloc and the Greens were disappointed. However, Green leader Annamie Paul noteably won her seat in Toronto Centere (with former leader Elizabeth May the other elected Green MP).




At September 26th, 2021, one of the most consequential elections in world politics were held in Germany.

The ruling center-right CDU/CSU alliance stuck by their candidate for Chancellor, Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia Armin Laschet, despite his unpopularity in opinion polling. Though he ran a campaign without many gaffes, many voters just saw him as unappealing, without the technocratic competence of Chancellor Merkel.

On the other hand, Green Party co-leader Annalena Baerbock, chosen as her party's candidate for Chancellor, started as an exciting and popular candidate. Gaffes and mistakes quickly sank her popularity, but the Greens remained strong enough to rise far above their usual numbers, getting a lot of support from young and urban voters to get a strong third place finish.

The election's surprise came from the SDP, CDU's governing partners and main historical opposition. They fielded an experienced candidate in Vice Chancellor, Finance Minister and former First Mayor of Hamburg Olaf Scholz for Chancellor, and many Merkel supporters seem to have found him as the most competent and appealing heir for her. After both the CDU and Green leaders fell in popularity, Scholz, who ran a disciplined campaign, saw a meteoric rise in the polls and his party finished first.

Among the other parties, the liberal FDP could be the most satisfied- they gained some votes from disgruntled CDU/CSU supporters, and finished fourth with a strong result. The far-right Afd, despite their main right-wing rival losing seats, came out disappointed with an underperformance, as the issues that powered them- anti-immigration sentiments and EU skepticism- took the backseat in the election. And Linke, seen by many as an irrelevant party without the ability of the Greens or SPD to wield power, lost strength and came dangerously close to the threshold of 5%. They hope that this is their core base, without more voters to lose.

2021 German Federal Election (Results)
SPD (Olaf Scholz)- 26.7% (205 Seats)
CDU/CSU (Armin Laschet)- 22.4% (172 Seats)
Grüne (Annalena Baerbock)- 17.6% (131 Seats)
FDP (Christian Linder)- 11.9% (90 Seats)
AfD (Alice Weidel & Tino Chrupalla)- 10.4% (71 Seats)
Linke (Janine Wissler & Dietmar Bartsch)- 6.3% (46 Seats)
Others- 4.7% (0 Seats)

With these results, Europe woke up to a new reality- an old-school social democratic resurgence in the continent's most powerful actor. Scholz and the SPD were sure to form the next government, though their coalition partners were still to be decided. The SDP had several options- a grand coalition numbered 377 seats (19 seat majority), a traffic lights coalition with the Greens and FDP had 426 (68 seat majority), and a red-red-green coalition with the Greens and Linke had 382 (24 seat majority).

In the end, the SPD chose the so-called "traffic-light" coalition, deciding that coalitioning with the Left was too dangerous. Germany got its most socially liberal government in history. It wasn't just socially liberal, though- it supported a strengthening of the safety net, more free trade agreements, promised unprecedented measures to combat climate change and protect the environment, including a global push, and it was a fair bit more anti-Russia than Merkel's CDU/CSU-SPD government, promising to protect the independence of Ukraine and the Baltic countries.

In the coalition agreements, the positions of Vice Chancellor, Foreign Affairs Minister, Economics and Energy Minister, Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety Minister, and Transport and Digital Infrastructure Minister went to the Greens. The positions of Finance Minister, Justice Minister, Education Minister and Health Minister went to the FDP. And the positions of Chancellor, Defense Minister, Interior Minister, Labour Minister, Food and Agriculture Minister, Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth Minister,  and Economic Cooperation and Development Minister went to the SPD.

[Continential]

The Greens have one seat on the results while the text says that the Greens have two seats.

Anyway, I can't wait to see more!

[America Needs R'hllor]

Jon

Source: Wikimedia

November 10th, 2021

Jon Ossoff watched as John Cornyn, the Texas Senator and the most senior Republican leader in the Senate chamber right now, approached Chuck Schumer. "We give up," he said dryly. "You can hold your vote."

The Georgia Senator, with most of the Democratic caucus, sighed in relief. This was one of the most exhausting months in his life. But they, the Democrats, were in a relatively good shape compared to the Republicans.

All the way back in the end of September, Senators Schumer and Durbin executed a brilliant move by getting Joe Manchin on board with a filibuster reform- the return of the speaking filibuster and the shifting of the burden on the minority, to provide 40 Senators at all times to keep the floor, not on the majority to bring 60 votes. Nonetheless, the GOP Senators started their filibuster of the For the People Act in high spirits. This was exactly the wedge issue they needed to rile up their base- an issue relating to race and elections, rather than the kitchen-table issues President Biden dominated them on. They believed that their filibuster would hurt Democrats politically, and derail the Biden congressional agenda, forcing them to give up.

They were wrong, for the most part. Senate Democrats chose a strategic time to start that process- Biden has passed two huge bills and Americans were satisfied with his efforts, so Biden and Schumer were willing to wait it out.

As the youngest Democrat in the Senate, Jon was there for most of the filibuster, and it was honestly painful to watch. Republicans, with their older caucus, were struggling to keep it up eventually- several young conservatives such as Hawley, Paul, Cruz, Scott, Rubio, Ernst, Cotton, Lee, Marshall and Graham were breathing fire from the floor all the time, urging their fellows to keep up the opposition, but the rank-and-file of the caucus started tiring eventually. One memorable moment was when Senator Jim Inhofe from Oklahoma collapsed while speaking on the floor and had to be hospitalized for exhaustion and dehydration. This actually gave Democrats a split chance to defeat the filibuster, but they decided not to exploit it (to the disappointment of many Republicans). Of course, this hurt Democrats politically- Biden's approval ratings decreased, as did congressional Democrats'. Manchin was telling everyone on the media that he regretted his vote and urged for a rollback of the rules, but Chuck was hearing none of it and pushed forward.

Senate Minority Leader McConnell was constantly urging his fellows to keep it up, refusing to let his life's mission- Republican minority rule through gerrymandering and Supreme Court games- go to waste. But after he drastically cut his time in the chamber and stopped staying overnight altogether, morale in the caucus was very low. Jon was helping his friends keep count of which Republicans gave up- Romney first, then Murkowski, Collins, Shelby, Burr, Sullivan and Inhofe. Now it was Moran, Risch, Fischer, Rounds, Barrasso, Grassley, Boozman and Capoito who forced the hand of their leadership, and they finally gave up. Finally.

Jon cheered spontaneously when he heard Cornyn's words of defeat. Joining him were the younger Democratic Senators who stayed with him in the chamber throughout most of the filibuster struggle- Mark Kelly, Alex Padilla, Michael Bennet, Kirsten Gillibrand, Chris Murphy, Brian Schatz, Cory Booker, Tammy Duckworth, Jacky Rosen, Martin Heinrich, Tammy Baldwin and of course his good friend and fellow from Georgia, Rephael Warnock.

The next few hours were a blur. They quickly sent for the rest of the Democrats as Chuck Schumer prepared to hold a vote. Mitch McConnell crawled back to the chamber, trying to bring with him as many of his fellows as he could, but some decided that there was no point or were too far away. They came to regret it, as Senator Sinema caused a shock when she abstained during the vote despite being a cosponsor of the bill, claiming its passage was "an affront to bipartisanship and collegiality". In the end, the Senate version of the H.R.1 bill passed 49-45. All Democrats but two voted for it, 44 Republicans and Democrat Manchin voted against it, Democrat Sinema abstained, and five Republicans weren't there to vote- Dan Sullivan, Marco Rubio, Jim Inhofe, Richard Shelby and Roger Wicker.

Jon hugged his friend Rephael. "Congrats, friend. This wouldn't have happened without all your efforts."

Rephael smiled. "Thanks, Jon."

They knew that Biden exhausted most of his pre-midterm political capital and that the media would be insufferable about the whole process, but it was worth it. Without gerrymandering and with automatic voter registration, American democracy was going to change forever.

Do you approve of the For the People Act?
Approve- 50.8%
Disapprove- 43.9%
Unsure- 5.3%
APPROVE +6.9%

Do you approve of the way the bill was passed by Democrats?
Disapprove- 56.1%
Approve- 31.6%
Unsure- 12.3%
DISAPPROVE +24.5%

U.S. President Joe Biden Approval (November 11th)
Approve- 49.2%
Disapprove- 48.4%
Unsure- 2.4%
APPROVE +0.8%

Generic Cogressional Ballot (November 11th)
Democratic Party Candidate- 48.6%
Republican Party Candidate- 46.3%
Undecided/Others- 5.1%
DEMOCRATIC +2.3%

[America Needs R'hllor]

BREAKING: Israeli parliament passes budget for 2021-2022, ensuring government's survival


Sources: Wikimedia

JERUSALEM - Before it was formed, no one gave a chance to Israel's new government, encompassing parties from the right to the left and glued only by a shared dislike for the ousted former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Now, not only is the government working without many crises and the cordiality between the different party leaders seems increasingly strong, but a budget was finally passed in Israel for the first time in years. After many negotiations in which the left-wing parties Labor and Meretz paritally succeeded in expanding the safety net and preventing right-wing economic policy goals, the coalition agreed and voted for the budget together, 62 voting for the budget and 58 against it.

With the budget's official passage in the Knesset, the government will not be able to fall until the end of 2022, unless an alternative coalition forms, which is considered highly unlikely. This means that Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid leader and current Foreign Minister, comes a step closer to become Prime Minister in August 2023.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Wait what happened in the 2021 Gubernatorial elections?

[America Needs R'hllor]

November 2021 U.S. off-year Elections


Source: Flickr

In November 2, 2021, the United States held several important off-year elections for offices such as two Governorships, New York City Mayor and other local races. Additionally, in Septemer 14 California held a Gubernatorial Recall election after a successful petition. Here are the results of the major races.


California


Gavin Newsom, California's Governor, easily defeated the recall effort (Source:Flickr)

As initial polls showed a close race and even a lead on the question of whether California Governor Gavin Newsom should be recalled, the media created fanfare and panic about a possible GOP victory in the largest blue state in the nation, and the bad signs it would point towards for Democrats. This had a reverse effect for recall supporters- the nationalization of the race brought it attention, and California Democrats aggressively drove up enthusiasm among local Democrats to defeat it.

Not only that, but the leading candidate in the recall became conservative talk show host Larry Elder, rather than more moderate alternatives such as former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and Congressman Doug Ose, which made Californians even more anxious. And with Covid-19 numbers starting to decrease, Governor Newsom easily defeated the recall by a double digit gap.

In the second question, which became a pure hypothetical, Elder underperformed but still got the top spot, followed by the chief Democrat, Youtuber and landlord Kevin Paffrath, and by Faulconer. However, the question had very low participation rates as many "no" voters left it blank.

Recall Governor Gavin Newsom?
No- 61.8% ✓
Yes- 38.2%

2021 California Gubernatorial Election (in case of recall) Results
Talkshow Host Larry Elder- 26.5%
Landlord Kevin Paffrath- 24.4%
Fmr. Mayor Kevin Faulconer- 13.2%
Businessman John Cox- 7.9%
Activist Jacqueline McGowan- 7.0%
Assemblyman Kevin Kiley- 3.3%
Attorney Dan Kapelovitz- 2.9%
Activist Caitlyn Jenner- 2.7%
County Supervisor Jeff Hewitt- 1.5%
Others- 10.6%


New Jersey


Despite Republican hopes, Murphy is easily re-elected (Source: Wikipedia)

Despite some GOP fantasies that the race might become competitive in a Biden off-year election, the New Jersey gubernatorial race was never really competitive. Phil Murphy, a surprisingly popular and progressive Governor despite his Goldman Sachs background, comfortably defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli and won a second term as Governor.

New Jersey 2021 Gubernatorial Election (Results)
Governor Phil Murphy- 54.8% ✓
Fmr. Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli- 42.3%
Others- 2.9%


Virginia


Returning for a second term, McAuliffe proved that Virginia is a blue state (Source: Wikipedia)

Considered the most competitive election among the major 2021 races, Virginia took the nation for another spin as pundits debated just how blue it really became. Businessman Glenn Youngkin, the Republican candidate, hoped this debatably purple state can still go Republican in an off-year Biden midterm. However, he had a tough opponent in former Governor Terry McAuliffe, a moderate Clintonworld insider who had a successful and popular term in 2013-2017.

In the end, Democrats proved their lasting strength in the state- McAuliffe defeated Youngkin by a comfortable margin, while Democratic State Delegate Hala Ayala won the election to be Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Democratic Attorney General Mark Herring was re-elected and the Democrats increased their control over the Chamber of Delegates.

Virginia 2021 Gubernatorial Election (Results)
Fmr. Governor Terry McAuliffe- 52.4% ✓
Businessman Glenn Youngkin- 46.2%
Others- 1.4%


New York City


After a primary upset, Andrew Yang conquers New York City Hall (Source: Wikipedia)

In the heavily-Democratic city of New York, there was no doubt that the Democratic nominee would win the Mayor's office to replace term-limited Mayor Bill de Blasio. However, the Democratic Primary itself was a close and chaotic affair. After initially leading due to high name recognition, businessman and former 2020 Democratic Presidential contender Andrew Yang declined in polling, while other candidates such as New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer, former Bill de Blasio counsel Maya Wiley, former New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia and the one who became the new frontrunner, Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams.

Stringer, who positioned himself as the leading progressive in the race, was sunk late into the campaign by sexual assault allegations. Dianne Morales, a non-profit CEO running to Stringer's left and hoping to benefit, was then foiled by poor organization and a collapsing campaign staff. This left the race dominated by relative moderates- Adams, who was a centrist in the past and made controversial proposals on education; Yang, who was attacked by the left for several positions such as support for Israel; Garcia, who was always considered a moderate; an Wiley, who was a mainsteam establishment Democrat but quickly became the favourite of many progressives in the race after Stringer and Morales' collapse.

With Adams leading, the other three candidates were very close in places 2-4. Yang, despite many attacks, maintained his strength and won much support with his optimistic outlook. An alliance with Garcia was key for both candidates, as they hoped each other's support would help them defeat Adams in the final RCV results.

And indeed, the new Ranked Choice system had massive impact on the results. Initially, Adams seemed like a safe bet with a strong first place finish. Yang surprised observers by taking the second place, narrowly over favourite Wiley, and Garcia took a strong fourth place, within reach of the others. Former HUD Secretary Donovan overperformed and came fifth, but still far from victory, as were the rest of the candidates.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Initial)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 27.7%
Businessman Andrew Yang- 18.8%
Attorney Maya Wiley- 18.4%
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 17.1%
Fmr. U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan- 6.8%
New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer- 4.3%
Executive Raymond McGuire- 2.5%
Activist Dianne Morales- 1.6%
Others- 2.8%

After a myriad of minor candidates, including rapper Paperboy Prince and attorney Aaron Foldenauer, were eliminated the results didn't shift much, though progressive candidates received a slightly higher share of these voters.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Others Eliminated)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 28.1% (+0.4%)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 19.2% (+0.4%)
Attorney Maya Wiley- 19.0% (+0.6%)
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 17.5% (+0.4%)
Fmr. U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan- 7.0% (+0.2%)
New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer- 4.6% (+0.3%)
Executive Raymond McGuire- 2.6% (+0.1%)
Activist Dianne Morales- 2.0% (+0.4%)

The next to be eliminated was progressive activist Dianne Morales. Naturally, the more progressive candidates got more of her votes- Stringer and Wiley. But Yang, surprisingly, won a fair share of her voters. This did, however, allow Wiley to pass Yang and position herself in second place.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Morales Eliminated)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 28.3% (+0.2%)
Attorney Maya Wiley- 19.8% (+0.8%)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 19.6% (+0.4%)
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 17.7% (+0.2%)
Fmr. U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan- 7.1% (+0.1%)
New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer- 4.9% (+0.3%)
Executive Raymond McGuire- 2.6% (+0.0%)

Former Citigroup Executive Raymond McGuire, considered one of the more moderate, business-friendly candidates, was the next to be dropped, and his votes split fairly equally between the candidates, not changing the placings (but benefiting Donovan and Garcia especially).

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (McGuire Eliminated)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 28.8% (+0.5%)
Attorney Maya Wiley- 20.2% (+0.4%)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 19.9% (+0.3%)
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 18.5% (+0.8%)
Fmr. U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan- 7.6% (+0.5%)
New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer- 5.0% (+0.1%)

After McGuire, a bigger prize was eliminated- Stringer who, with 5%, had the potential to have a lot of impact in the race for second place. However, since his voters were mostly on the progressive side, they aided Wiley more than the other candidates, and so didn't change any placing.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Stringer Eliminated)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 29.2% (+0.4%)
Attorney Maya Wiley- 22.2% (+2.0%)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 20.8% (+0.9%)
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 19.6% (+1.1%)
Fmr. U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan- 8.2% (+0.6%)

The next to drop out would have the most impact so far. With enough votes to completely scramble the order in the top 4, Donovan was eliminated, and it turned out his voters did surprise everyone- Yang and especially Garcia gained big, while Wiley stayed behind. The result was that she fell from second to fourth place.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Donovan Eliminated)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 30.6% (+1.4%)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 23.6% (+2.8%)
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 23.0% (+3.4%)
Attorney Maya Wiley- 22.8% (+0.6%)

The elimination of Maya Wiley, a step of massive importance that decided which of the Yang-Garcia duo would advance to the final round of RCV, gave a lot of renewed hope to frontrunner Adams, who got a strong boost. And in the end, Wiley's voters, while slightly prefering Garcia, allowed Yang to get an edge.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Wiley Eliminated)
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 41.2% (+10.6%)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 29.6% (+6.0%)
Fmr. New York City Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia- 29.2% (+6.2%)

In the end, what tilted the election was the Yang-Garcia alliance. Despite Adams' closeness to the magic 50% number, Garcia's voters prefered Yang over him by such a wide margin that it allowed him to eke out a win, and become the official Democratic nominee for NYC Mayor.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Democratic Primary Results (Garcia Eliminated)
Businessman Andrew Yang- 50.6% (+21.0%) ✓
Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams- 49.4% (+8.2%)

After the end of this tight primary, the general election was pretty much a breeze for Yang- he faced an odd candidate in Curtis Silwa, an animal (especially cat) loving, moderate former Reform Party candidate, who won the Republican nomination against the more conservative Fernando Mateo. In the end, Yang won easily, and became New York City's new Mayor.

New York City 2021 Mayoral Election (Results)
Businessman Andrew Yang (Democratic, Working Families)- 69.2% ✓
Talk Show Host Curtis Silwa (Republican, Animal Welfare)- 25.9%
Ret. NYPD Officer Bill Pepitone (Conservative)- 2.4%
Activist Cathy Rojas (Socialism and Liberation, Green)- 0.9%
Comedian Stacey Prussman (Libertarian)- 0.3%
Others- 1.3%


Other elections

Buffalo, New York Mayoral Election- Despite losing the primary to progessive insurgent India Walton, incumbent Mayor Byron Brown ran as a third-party candidate and won re-election by defeating her 53.6%-44.1% (another 2.3% went to write-in candidates).

Minneapolis, Minnesota Mayoral Election- Incumbent one-term Mayor Jacob Frey secured re-election after a term that included a lot of controversy on police issues. He defeated former State Representative Kate Knuth, community organizer Sheila June Nezhad, co-executive director of the Cedar-Riverside Community Council A.J. Awed and others in a RCV system. The final round had Frey beating Nezhad 56.7%-43.3%.

Boston, Massachusetts Mayoral Election- In one of the most important cities in the country, a very competitive Mayoral election was held between Michelle Wu, a City Councilor who was already challenging former Mayor Marty Walsh (now Labor Secretary) from the left, Acting Mayor and City Councilor Kim Janey, City Councilor Andrea Campbell, City Councilor Annissa Essaibi George and former Boston Chief of Economic Development John Barros. After a tough battle against Campbell and Essaibi George, Wu and Janey made it into the second round. There, Wu defeated Janey 51.2%-48.8%, becoming Boston's second female and first Asian-American Mayor.

Cleveland, Ohio Mayoral Election- With incumbent Mayor Frank Jackson retiring, Cleveland had a tough race in which the shadow of former Mayor, U.S. Rep. and Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich, who was running again, loomed. Kucinich, who created controversy by not vaccinating and making other questionable statements, was running against State Senator Sandra Williams, City Council President Kevin Kelley, nonprofit executive Justin Bibb (endorsed by Our Revolution), City Councilor Basheer Jones, former City Councilor Zack Reed and attorney Ross DiBello. After a close fight with Bibb and Jones, Kelley advanced to the second round against Kucinish. There, most forces coalesced around him and allowed him to defeat the former Mayor 54.5%-45.5%.

Cincinatti, Ohio Mayoral Election- In another major Ohio city, the main candidates to replace the term-limited John Cranley (who ran for Governor) were former Mayor and U.S. Representative and current City Councilor David Mann, State Senator Cecil Thomas and former Congressional candidate Aftab Pureval. Pureval and Mann advanced to the second round, in which the much younger and more progressive candidate defeated the former Mayor, who was endorsed mostly by Republicans and indepdndents, by a 57.6%-42.4% margin.

Seattle, Washington Mayoral Election- After incumbent Mayor Jenny Durkan surprisingly retired, this progressive, large city had a face-off between City Council President Lorena González and former City Councilor Bruce Harrell, who was considered the more moderate of the two. After a close race, Harrell prevailed 50.8%-49.2%.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ugh why Andrew Yang. He sucks.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ugh why Andrew Yang. He sucks.

Why?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Happy New Year! 2022 Arrives


Source: Wikipedia

My fellow Americans. 2021 hasn't been an easy year for us. The coronavirus epidemic continued plaguing the world, and here at home, our democracy has faced unprecedented challenges from extremist forces who wish to dim the light and warmth that is our republic, and replace it with cold, dark authoritarianism. But we've made so much progress together. We passed a historic stimulus package to help our economy not just rebound, but come out better from this pandemic. We've reduced inequality, child poverty and created so many new jobs. We invested unprecedentedly in our country's infraustracture, both physical and human, and built back better to make sure that we will gradually have better roads, better drinking water, better green energy and a better care economy. We continued standing up to bullies and authoritarian leaders both at home and abroad, and standing for regular folks who just want to live their life in freedom and equality. And we took steps to fight climate change by reducing pollution and emissions, and promoting global co-operation.

I promise you- next year, we will do all we can to continue uniting and improving life in our country. I urge everyone who hadn't yet to get vaccinated- we can no longer wait. If you're celebrating the new year outside your home, please stay safe and wear a mask.

Happy new year. May God bless you, and the United States of America.

As the sun set on 2021, the world looked very different than it did a year ago. The grim divisiveness of Donald Trump was replaced by the hopeful tone of President Joe Biden, who seemed to be leading a new global counterattack of liberal democratic forces against the populist, racist and authoritarian trends of the past years. Old school social democracy was on the rise as well, with social democratic leaders taking over in Germany and Norway.

But 2022 would serve as a crucial test to thie new global trend- whether it's the ability of Joe Biden's Democrats to stand their ground in the midterm election or major elections in France, Brazil, Poland and Hungary where authoritarian, populist, anti-liberla forces were prepared to take their stands.

The State of Public Opinion in Key Countries
January 1st. 2022

President Joe Biden Approval (January 1st)
Approve- 49.3%
Disapprove- 45.8%
Unsure- 4.9%

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris Approval (January 1st)
Disapprove- 47.4%
Approve- 44.9%
Unsure- 7.7%

Generic Cogressional Ballot (January 1st)
Democratic Party Candidate- 47.8%
Republican Party Candidate- 44.1%
Undecided/Others- 8.1%


2022 French Presidential Election (Polling)
President Emmanuel Macron (LREM)- 24%
National Assemblywoman Marine Le Pen (RN)- 16%
Journalist Éric Zemmour (Independent)- 15%
Hauts-de-France Regional Council President Xavier Bertrand (Right)- 14%
National Assemblyman Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI)- 8%
MEP Yannik Jadot (EELV)- 8%
Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo (PS)- 6%
National Assemblyman Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF)- 2%
Journalist Fabien Roussel (PCF)- 2%
Others/Undecided- 5%


2022 Brazilian Presidential Election (Polling)
Fmr. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)- 39.1%
President Jair Bolsonaro (APB)- 31.5%
Fmr. Federal Deputy Ciro Gomes (PDT)- 11.8%
São Paulo Governor João Doria (PSDB)- 6.6%
Others/Undecided- 11.0%


2022 South Korean Presidential Election (Polling)
Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung (Democratic)- 44.7%
Fmr. Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl (People Power)- 42.1%
National Assemblywoman Sim Sang-jung (Justice)- 4.1%
Fmr. National Assemblyman Ahn Cheol-soo (People Party)- 2.3%
Others/Undecided- 6.8%


2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election (Polling)
Fidesz–KDNP (Viktor Orbán)- 47.2%
Jobbik-MSZP-Dialogue-DK-LMP-Momentum (Gergely Karácsony)- 45.4%
Others/Undecided- 7.4%


2022 Australian General Election (Polling)
Labor Party (Anthony Albanese)- 38.5%
Liberal/National Coalition (Scott Morrison)- 36.5%
Green Party (Adam Bandt)- 11.8%
Pauline Hanson's One Nation (Pauline Hanson)- 3.3%
Others/Undecided- 9.9%%


Next United Kingdom General Election (Polling)
Conservative Party (Borish Johnson)- 36%
Labour Party (Keir Starmer)- 35%
Liberal Democrats (Ed Davey)- 9%
Green Party (Tamsin Omond & Amelia Womack)- 8%
Scottish National Party (Nicola Sturgeon)- 5%
Reform UK (Nigel Farage)- 4%
Others/Undecided- 3%


Next Israeli Knesset Election (Polling)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 29 Seats
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 18 Seats
Labour (Merav Michaeli)- 10 Seats
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 8 Seats
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 8 Seats
Yamina (Naftali Bennet)- 7 Seats
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 7 Seats
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 6 Seats
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 6 Seats
Meretz (Nitzan Horovitz)- 5 Seats
Ra'am (Mansour Abbas)- 5 Seats
New Hope (Gideon Sa'ar)- 4 Seats


Next Dutch Legislative Election (Polling)
VVD (RE)- 35 Seats
D66 (RE)- 18 Seats
PVV (ID)- 18 Seats
PvdA (S&D)- 15 Seats
GL (G/EFA)- 8 Seats
SP (EUL/NGL)- 7 Seats
PvdD (EUL/NGL)- 7 Seats
CDA (EPP)- 7 Seats
CU (EPP)- 6 Seats
Volt (G/EFA)- 6 Seats
BBB (*)- 6 Seats
FvD (ECR)- 5 Seats
Ja21 (ECR)- 5 Seats
SGP (ECR)- 3 Seats
DENK (*)- 3 Seats
BIJ1 (*)- 1 Seats
50PLUS (EPP)- 0 Seats
Others- 0 Seats


Next German Federal Election (Polling)
SPD (S&D)- 29.7%
CDU/CSU (EPP)- 20.9%
Grüne (G/EFA)- 15.9%
FDP (RE)- 11.4%
AfD (ID)- 11.2%
Linke (EUL/NGL)- 6.1%
Others/Undecided- 4.8%


Next Italian General Election (Polling)
FDI (ECR)- 20.7%
LEGA (ID)- 19.5%
PD (S&D)- 19.3%
M5S (*)- 13.7%
FI (EPP)- 6.2%
Azione (S&D)- 4.3%
SI (EUL/NGL)- 3.0%
Art.1 (S&D)- 2.8%
+EU (RE)- 2.7%
EV (G/EFA)- 2.5%
IV (RE)- 2.2%
CI (ECR\EPP)- 0.8%
Others/Undecided- 2.3%


Next Spanish General Election (Polling)
PSOE (S&D)- 27.1%
PP (EPP)- 26.4%
VOX (ECR)- 16.2%
UP (EUL/NGL)- 9.7%
MP (G/EFA)- 5.1%
Cs (RE)- 2.9%
Others/Undecided- 12.6%


Next Turkish Presidential Election (Polling)
AKP (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)- 43.8%
CHP (TBD)- 32.3%
İYİ (Meral Akşener)- 8.9%
HDP (TBD)- 7.8%
MHP (Devlet Bahçeli)- 2.9%
MP(Muharrem İnce)- 1.3%
Others/Undecided- 3.0%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Healthcare Time


Source: Flickr
DISCLAIMER: all tweets in this post are fake

WASHINGTON, D.C. - BREAKING: President Joe Biden announces next step on legislative agenda is Healthcare.

.....

"For too long, the United States neglected its healthcare system," the President announced in a speech, "we're too good, too great a country to have so many uninsured Americans. A public option will allow the United States to ensure every single American gets the healthcare they need- and bring competition that makes our great healthcare professionals even more innovative."

.....

As the President attemptes to achieve an unprecedented third major economic reform in two years, some Democrats are starting to get skeptical. "The White House is trying to bite off more than it can chew", said one Democratic leader who spoke on the condition of anonimity. Economist Lawrance Summers had even harsher words- inflation is already becoming a problem, he said, and the White House's ambitious steps will be "paid for by many generations to come."

.....

White House Spokesperson Jen Psaki dismissed these concerns. "The President has come to work and fix problems that concern many Americans, not sit on his hands. Everything in the plan will be paid for."








WILMINGTON, DELAWARE - Coming off legislative victories on pandemic relief, infraustracture and voting rights, President Biden is turning his attention to another Democratic priority- healthcare. Cheered on by progressives, the President is trying to use the new, reformed filibuster to get Congressional approval for a healthcare public option.

Since announcing his intent, the President got several more moderate U.S. Senators on board- in fact, a new Senate bill was quickly drafted by Colorado's Michael Bennet and Massachusetts' Elizabeth Warren, a team-up of a moderate and a progressive. The White House and Congressional leadership announced support for the bill.

However, the legislation faces a significant hurdle- Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), from the right-most cornet of the party, who were successfully maneuvered by the party to support Biden's Build Back Better agenda at the start of his Presidency, are reluctant. "Another major spending bill is out of the question," Manchin said yesterday, citing debt and inflation as his main concerns. Sinema, baffling Democrats, said she "does not support the bill in its current form", not offering any specifics. The opposition of the two Democrats puts President Biden's legislative agenda in danger of collapse ahead of a precarious midtern election.








WASHINGTON, D.C - In a major breakthrough for the dragging Democratic efforts to pass the Bidencare bill, Senator Manchin has reportedly agreed to support a new, more limited version of the bill that made the public option a thin one that required private additions, introduced by Senators Bennet and Mark Warner (D-VA), with Senator Warren quietly removing her name in order to make it more paltable to the West Virginia centrist.





NEW YORK CITY - Democrats, lead by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, are reportedly despairing of the prospects to pass a public option. Following Senator Sinema's statement that she opposes the Bennet-Warner bill, Senator Manchin backtracked his private assurances of support and announced his opposition, as well. Sources say that Senator Schumer's recent meeting with President Biden was tense, with Biden urging the New York Senator to "straighten up" his caucus after White House talks with the two centrists failed. However, Schumer made clear that there is little chance to convince the two, and urged Biden to seek a different priority.


WASHINGTON, D.C. - A bipartisan group of 10 Senators, including Democrats Manchin, Sinema, Casey Jr., Warner and Hassan and Republicans Portman, Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Cassidy have announced that they reached an agreement on a bill that expands medicare and medicaid in a limited fashion, covering among other things some dental and hearing costs, as well as increasing eligibility. This is supposed to replace the Bidencare bill that reached a dead end.

However, the passage of the bill is not guaranteed- Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) has announced a filibuster immediately after, and several other Senators, including Ted Cruz (R-TX), Bill Hagerty (R-TN) and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), said they will join him.


WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Senate's bipartisan healthcare bill has faced a major hurdle as the "bipartisan" title was stripped from it. Following a lengthy filibuster that included Senator Paul (R-KY) collapsing and receiving treatment, and massive pressure from leadership, all Republican co-sponsors have removed their name from the bill and announced they won't vote for it, citing "wrong timing".

Following this, Senator Manchin decried the move and said it "harms the health of our democracy".


WASHINGTON, D.C. - President Biden's months-long efforts to pass a healthcare bill suffered a massive defeat today as Senators Manchin (D-WV) and Sinema (D-AZ), key centrists, said leadership "must stop at once" the process of passing the bill, saying that "another lengthy speaking filibuster is doing grave damage to bipartisanship in Washington".  They've reportedly threatened to withhold their vote if the filibuster doesn't stop.




President Joe Biden Approval (April 1st)
Approve- 47.8%
Disapprove- 46.3%
Unsure- 5.9%

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris Approval (April 1st)
Disapprove- 50.5%
Approve- 42.3%
Unsure- 7.2%

Generic Cogressional Ballot (April 1st)
Democratic Party Candidate- 47.5%
Republican Party Candidate- 45.3%
Undecided/Others- 7.2%

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Midterms Loom


Source: Wikipedia

After their defeat on healthcare, Demcrats quickly shifted attention to the fast-approaching November midterm elections. Campaigning on his successes and consolidating Democrats, Biden managed to steadily increase his approvals again, and became a very in-demand surrogate for Democrats locked in close Senate and House battles.

While some Republicans went hard against the Biden administration on fiscal issues, the main focus was on social issues, including abortion, cancel culture and the so-called "critical race theory". Though the main focus on their campaign was Biden's covid-19 relief and infraustracture victories, Democrats also sensed an opportunity and attacked Republicans for the January 6th insurrection and for the harsh abortion ban passed in Texas, both issues that polls said motivated the Democratic base.

With a fairly friendly Senate map and a universal ban on gerrymandering tipping the House map a bit more in their direction, Democrats hoped to avoid the usual midterm curse and keep their trifecta in congress. However, before that could be put to the test, primary season was upon us, and there were many competitive primaries for the various open and swing seats in the Senate and the House. Both parties recruited many strong candidates, and the results created many interesting races.

Here is a quick summary of the key primary election results ahead of the 2022 midterms:

Alabama: In a state usually considered safe Republican, the retirement of longtime Senator Richard Shelby created an opportunity for many Republicans in the state. Shelby's handpicked successor, his former Chief of Staff and former Alabama Business Council CEO Katie Britt, faced major competition from far-right U.S. Representative Mo Brooks, former U.S. Representative Bradley Byrne, former Ambassador to Slovenia Lynda Blanchard, businesswoman Jessica Taylor and former Deputy Director of National Intelligence Cliff Sims, known for penning a Trump White House tell-all.

In the end, Brooks who had the endorsement of former President Trump won handily in a runoff against Britt. Democrats nominated State Representative and Party Chair Christopher England with little competition.

Alabama 2022 Senate Republican Primary (1st round Results):
U.S. Representative Mo Brooks- 42.4% ✓
Fmr. Chief of Staff Katie Britt- 15.8% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Bradley Byrne- 14.1%
Fmr. Advisor Cliff Sims- 10.5%
Fmr. Ambassador Lynda Blanchard- 9.0%
Businesswoman Jessica Taylor- 8.2%

Alabama 2022 Senate Republican Primary (2nd round Results):
U.S. Representative Mo Brooks- 59.3% ✓
Fmr. Chief of Staff Katie Britt- 40.7%

Alaska: After adopting a strange new electoral system, with a top-four open jungle primary followed by a RCV general election, Alaska was to hold one of the most interesting Senate races. Incumbent Lisa Murkowski, a relative moderate who voted to impeach Trump, was challenged by Kelly Tshibaka, the former Alaska Department of Administration commissioner who was endorsed by Trump and the state GOP. Democrats coalesed around State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson, and perennial candidate Dustin Darden ran for the Alaskan Independence Party.  These four are also the ones who advanced to the general election.

Alaska 2022 Senate Primary (Results):
Fmr. Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka- 36.4% ✓
State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson- 30.7% ✓
Senator Lisa Murkowski (I)- 27.5% ✓
Mr. Dustin Darden- 3.3% ✓
Others- 2.1%

Arizona: One of the key races to determine control of the Senate come 2023, Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly who won the 2020 special election will attempt to win a full, 6-year term. Kelly has been a reliable voter for the Biden agenda, but his personal popularity kept him with high approvals in the swing state. The Republican primary to contest the race was croweded, helmed by the conservative Attorney General Mike Brnovich, with far-right U.S. Representative Andy Biggs, Thiel Foundation President and Trump ally Blake Masters, retired Arizona National Guard General Michael McGuire, pro-Trump solar-business executive Jim Lamon, Corporation Commission member former TPUSA activist Justin Olson challenging him.

In the end, the election ended in an upset- Biggs, who was considered the more pro-Trump candidate, defeated Brnovich and won the Republican nomination. National Republicans expressed concern that a candidate who promoted conspiracy theories about the 2020 election results could struggle against Kelly.

Arizona 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Andy Biggs - 38.9% ✓
Attorney General Mike Brnovich- 34.0%
Thiel Foundation President Blake Masters- 11.4%
Ret. Major General Michael McGuire- 8.5%
Corporation Commission Member Justin Olson- 3.9%
Businessman Jim Lamon- 3.1%
Engineer Robert Paveza- 0.2%

California- In the seat formerly held by Vice President Harris, both the regular and special election will be held, with incumbent Alex Padilla heavily favoured to keep his place. The main interest in the jungle primary was whether a Republican or Democrat will come second and advance against Padilla to the general election, potentially weakening Republican enthusiasm. In the end, with no big-name Republicans running, Democrat Jerome Horton, a former State Assemblyman and member of the Board of Equalization, came second and denied Republicans access to the general election.

Colorado- In a fast-trending blue state, incumbent Senator Michael Bennet had been a powerful legislative ally of President Biden and hopes to win re-election despite the last midterms spellign doom for the incumbent President's candidates in the state. Republicans, hoping to win the seat despite long odds, nominated Olympic swimmer and veteran Eli Bremer, who defeated State Representative Ron Hanks, construction CEO Joe O'Dea, former Fort Collins City Councillor Gino Campana and others.

Colorado 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
Olympian Eli Bremer - 42.2% ✓
State Representative Ron Hanks- 29.8%
Fmr. City Councillor Gino Campana- 14.2%
Business Owner Joe O'Dea- 5.5%
Veteran Erik Aadland- 3.9%
Others- 4.4%

Florida- In a state that frustrated Democrats time and again, they hope to try and unseat Senator Marco Rubio, a Trump opponent turned ally who easily won his primary with the former President's endorsement.

A large field was created to challenge Rubio, including the popular Congresswoman Val Demings, controversial former Congressman Alan Grayson, Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell, former Justice Department special counsel William Sanchez, consultant Allen Ellison, former staffer and pro-normalization with Cuba activist Al Fox, teacher Josh Weil, attorney and stroke survivor Coleman Watson and others.

In the end, the result was unsurprising- Demings won the nomination and will challenge Rubio in the general election.

Florida 2022 Senate Democratic Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Val Demings - 38.3% ✓
City Commissioner Ken Russell- 35.4%
Fmr. Special Counsel William Sanchez- 8.5%
Attorney Coleman Watson- 5.8%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Alan Grayson- 5.6%
Consultant Allen Ellison- 3.2%
Teacher Josh Weil- 1.4%
Others- 1.8%

Georgia- After shocking the nation by winning a Georgia Senate seat for the Democratic party along with Jon Ossoff in 2020 and securing Democrats a 51-49 majority, Rephael Warnock proved a very visible Senator, advocating for voting rights and supporting the Biden agenda. Republicans want to take him down, but have to contend with a state in which the suburbs are quickly trending Democratic and there is a sizeable and pro-Democratic black population that Warnock, a pastor in MLK's Church, is very popular with.

Former professional football plater and Trump friend Herschel Walker, a black man, is the GOP's attempt to remedy it- but controversies such as support for conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and accusations of domestic violence by his ex caused some to doubt him. With strong backing from Trump, he defeated U.S. Representative Drew Ferguson, Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, Airforce veteran Kelvin King and former Trump White House staffer Latham Saddler.

Georgia 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
Football player Herschel Walker- 42.6% ✓
Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black- 30.7%
U.S. Representative Drew Ferguson- 21.9%
Fmr. White House official Latham Saddler- 3.1%
Airforce Veteran Kelvin King- 1.7%
Others- 0.0%

Iowa- After disappointing Democrats again and again with crushing defeats, Iowa will feature another high-stakes race. Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley, despite his very advanced age, is running for reelection. Determined to prove Iowa is still a swing state, Democrats had a competitive primary between former U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer, retired Admiral Michael Franken, former State Representative Bob Krause, Minden City Councillor Glenn Hurst and former Crawford County Supervisor Dave Muhlbauer.

After a close race between Finkenauer and Franken, the former prevailed and will hope to unseat Grassley.

Iowa 2022 Senate Democratic Primary (Results):
Fmr. U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer - 48.7% ✓
Ret. U.S. Navy Admiral Michael Franken- 43.6%
Fmr. State Representative Bob Krause- 5.8%
City Councillor Glenn Hurst- 4.1%
Fmr. County Supervisor Dave Muhlbauer- 2.6%
Others- 0.0%

Missouri- A now-safe state for Republicans, Missouri features an open Senate seat with the retirement of Senator Roy Blunt. A myriad of candidates announced, including former Governor Eric Greitens who resigned after being charged with several felonies and later accused of sexual assault, U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler, U.S. Representative Billy Long, State Attorney General and former State Treasurer Eric Schmitt, attorney 2020 RNC speaker Mark McCloskey who threatened to murder BLM protestors with his gun, and others.

In what was considered a huge upset, Billy Long won the Senate nomination by a razor-thing margin. He's considered a beneficiary of Greiten's campaign collapsing in the final weeks of the race, which also contributed to a surprising overperformance for McCloskey, who made it effectively a 5-way race. Long will face the Democratic nominee, veteran Lucas Kunce, in the general election.

Missouri 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Billy Long- 19.7% ✓
State Attorney General Eric Schmitt- 19.5%
U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler- 19.3%
Fmr. Governor Eric Greitens- 18.5%
Attorney Mark McCloskey- 17.3%
Others- 5.7%

Nevada- While this Senate race would be one of the most important and competitive in the midterms, with Democrats hoping that their decline with hispanic voters in 2020 doesn't harm their chances of holding this crucial seat, the primaries weren't competitive- both incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican former Attorney General Adam Laxalt were easily nominated, and would face off in the general election.

New Hampshire- The race considered potentially the toughest hold for Democrats in 2022 featured a surprising Republican primary between Governor Chris Sununu, the Republican hope for taking the seat, and retired Brigadier General Don Bolduc, a conservative who endorsed the false conspiracy theory that Trump won the 2020 election. Reportedly, after Sununu refused to publicly back Trump's election fraud claims, the former President endorsed Bolduc in the primary. This caused a narrow victory for Bolduc, to the horror of national Republicans, and the relief of Democrats, chiefly incumbent Maggie Hassan who is running for reelection.

New Hampshire 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
Ret. Brigadier General Donald Bolduc- 50.0% ✓
Governor Chris Sununu- 48.6%
Others- 1.4%

North Carolina- A competitive open seat created by the retirement of Senator Richard Burr, who voted to impeach Trump in the second time. Republicans hope to keep it in a Biden midterm, and had a primary between several strong candidates- Lara Trump, the former President's daughter in law, former Governor Pat McRory, who lost in 2020 after a controversial anti-trans bathroom law and was endorsed by Burr, former U.S. Representative Mark Walker, former State Senator Dave Curtis, author Marjorie Eastman and others. In the end, the Trump name prevailed and the President's daughter won the nomination, a move some Republicans considered risky because of her inexperience and the former President's narrow loss in North Carolina in 2020.

Democrats, after taking the state's other Senate seat in 2020 with Senator Jeff Jackson, hope to do it again and had a competitive primary between former State Senator Cal Cunningham, former U.S. Representative Heath Shuler, State Senator Erica Smith, former NASA Astronaut Joan Higginbotham, Beaufort Mayor Rett Newton and scientist Richard Watkins III. Higginbotham, bolstered by pro-women groups and her stature as a former Astronaut, won the primary in an upset, defeating the frontrunner Cunninhham, and is conisdered a very strong candidate for the general election.

North Carolina 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
TV Producer Lara Trump- 43.3% ✓
Fmr. Governor Pat McRory- 35.6%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Mark Walker- 15.4%
Author Marjorie Eastman- 2.6%
Fmr. State Senator Dave Curtis- 1.9%
Others- 1.2%

North Carolina 2022 Senate Democratic Primary (Results):
NASA Astronaut Joan Higginbotham - 40.1% ✓
Fmr. State Senator Cal Cunningham- 25.7%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Heath Shuler- 14.4%
Fmr. State Senator Erica Smith- 12.6%
Scientist Richard Watkins III- 3.0%
Mayor Rett Newton- 1.7%
Others- 2.5%

Ohio- Another state running away from Democrats in recent years, Ohio saw the retirement of the relatively moderate Senator Rob Portman create an open seat with competitive primaries for both parties.

On the Republican side, a wild race to the bottom was held between several candidates, each trying to prove he's more extreme than the other with some very strange and bewildering takes- former State Treasurer Josh Mandel (who said, among many other things, that Afghan refugees threaten the Judeo-Christian way of life, that George Soros orchestrated covid-19, BLM and Antifa, and created a racist Twitter poll of "which type of illegals" commits more crimes), far-right populist author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance, U.S. Representative Mike Turner, former Ohio GOP Chair Jane Timken, banker Mike Gibbons, State Senator Matt Dolan running as a non-Trumpist and businessman Bernie Moreno. In the end, Mandel won as expected, despite his radical positioning.

Meanwhile, the Democrats had a less crowded primary- a race between U.S. Representative Tim Ryan and former CFPB advisor Morgan Harper. Ryan won easily.

Ohio 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. State Treasurer Josh Mandel- 27.2% ✓
U.S. Representative Mike Turner- 18.6%
Fmr. Ohio GOP Chair Jane Timken- 15.4%
Venture capitalist J.D. Vance- 11.8%
State Senator Matt Dolan- 10.3%
Businessman Mike Gibbons- 8.7%
Businessman Bernie Moreno- 5.9%
Others- 2.1%

Ohio 2022 Senate Democratic Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Tim Ryan - 67.7%% ✓
Fmr. CFPB Advisor Morgan Harper- 28.5%
Others- 3.8%

Pennsylvania- Possibly the most competitive race in 2022, Pennsylvania's incumbent Pat Toomey, who also voted to impeach Trump, is retiring. Both parties are fighting hard to replace him.

On the Republican side, the recruitment efforts were disturbed by Trump's interventions like in many similar races, and the list of candidates was described a "B list" or even "D List". The main candidates were veteran and former Congressional candidate Sean Parnell, endorsed by Trump after supporting his election fraud lies, moderate former Congressman Ryan Costello, former Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands, businessman and whistleblower Everett Stern, businessman Jeff Bartos, political commentator and former congressional candidate Kathy Barnette, attorney Sean Gale and former Secretary of the Navy Kenneth Braithwaite. Parnell, unsurprisingly, won the nomination quite easily.

Democrats had a race between some very high-profile and strong candidates: Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, Montgomery County Commission Chair Val Arkoosh, State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta, State Senator Sharif Street, State Representative Sara Innamorato, and others. After a very tight race, Lamb prevailed and became the Democratic nominee.

Pennsylvania 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
Veteran Sean Parnell- 36.0% ✓
Businessman Jeff Bartos- 21.5%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Ryan Costello- 15.3%
Commentator Kathy Barnette- 14.8%
Fmr. Secretary of the Navy Kenneth Braithwaite- 6.4%
Fmr. Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands- 2.9%
Attorney Sean Gale- 2.0%
Others- 1.1%

Pennsylvania 2022 Senate Democratic Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Conor Lamb - 30.9% ✓
Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman- 28.2%%
State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta- 14.9%
Montgomery Commission Chair Val Arkoosh- 13.3%
State Senator Sharif Street- 5.7%
State Representative Sara Innamorato- 4.5%
Others- 2.5%

Wisconson- After long contemplation, the controversial Republican Senator Ron Johnson decided that he won't seek reelection. The Republican primary to replace him wasn't as crowded as expected, dominated by U.S. Representative Mike Gallagher, a conservative who previously opposed efforts to overturn the 2020 elections, and former Representative Sean Duffy, a Trump-backed conservative, along with businessman Kevin Nicholson presenting himself as the rightmost candidate. After a tight battle, Duffy won the primary.

Among the Democrats, the frontrunner was Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns, with another strong candidate in State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski. Other candidates were Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, Milwaukee Bucks Vice Presidet Alex Lasry, Milwaukee Alderwoman Chantia Lewis, radiologist Gillian Battino, activist Steven Olikara, attorney Peter Peckarsky and others. Burns, without much competition, won the nomination with backing from national Democrats.

Wisconsin 2022 Senate Republican Primary (Results):
Former U.S. Representative Sean Duffy- 44.9% ✓
U.S. Representative Mike Gallagher- 41.9%
Businessman Kevin Nicholson- 12.8%
Others- 0.4%

Wisconson 2022 Senate Democratic Primary (Results):
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns - 46.1% ✓
State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski- 22.4%%
Businessman Alex Lasry- 11.3%
County Executive Tom Nelson- 8.7%
Activist Steven Olikara- 4.9%
Attorney Peter Peckarsky- 3.6%
Radiologist Gillian Battino- 1.2%
Alderwoman Chantia Lewis- 0.8%
Others- 1.0%

All in all, a very interesting election is shaping up. Democrats can be satisfied with some strong recruitment for key races, while Republicans hope that the usual midterm trends will benefit them.

One noted result from the primaries is that every Republican candidate in an open primary has been a strong supporter of former President Trump and his election fraud lies- Mo Brooks, Kelly Tshibaka, Herschel Walker, Billy Long, Don Bolduc, Lara Trump, Josh Mandel, Sean Parnell and Sean Duffy. In fact, the only one who isn't a clear-cut Big Lie endorser is Colorado's nominee Eli Bremer.

[BigVic]

This is realistic but Trudeau does worse than IRL

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Midterms Loom - Gubernatorial Edition (Part 1)

Along with the Senate races, the midterms will also feature many key gubernatorial races. Both Democrats and Republicans will be on the defensive, and the offensive. We will now summarize the key gubernatorial races of 2022.

Alaska- With a jungle primary concluding with a RCV general election between the top 4 just like in the Senate race, Alaska was bound for an interesting gubernatorial primary. Incumbent Mike Dunleavy, accused by Democrats of destroying the environment, is facing Democratic former State Legislator Les Gara, the independent former Governor Bill Walker and Libertarian Billy Toein. Since they were the only four candidates, all advance to the general election.

Alaska 2022 Gubernatorial Primary (Results):
Governor Mike Dunleavy (I)- 41.6% ✓
Fmr. Governor Bill Walker- 33.8% ✓
Fmr. State Representative Les Gara- 20.5% ✓
Mr. William "Billy"Toein- 4.1% ✓

Arizona- This key swing state has a major gubernatorial race along with its Senate race, open on both sides with GOP Governor Doug Ducey term-limited. Republicans had a crowded primary that included State Treasurer Kimberly Yee, former Congressman Matt Salmon, Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson, businessman and 2018 Secretary of State nominee Steve Gaynor, conservative news anchor Kari Lake, and skincare company executive Daniel McCarthy.

Just like in the Senate primary, Trump's canddiate Lake defeated the less radical Yee and Salmon. Lake is a major booster of Trump's election conspiracy theories.

Among Democrats, the competition was much less fierce. Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, the favourite, beat former Nogales Mayor Marco López Jr. and State Rep. Aaron Lieberman by a wide margin.

Arizona 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
TV Anchor Kari Lake- 32.6% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Matt Salmon- 29.0%
State Treasurer Kimberly Yee- 22.5%
Businessman Steve Gaynor- 8.1%
Regent Karrin Taylor Robson- 5.6%
Businessman Daniel McCarthy- 1.7%
Others- 0.5%

Arizona 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Secretary of State Katie Hobbs- 63.2% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Marco López Jr.- 25.4%
State Representative Aaron Lieberman- 11.4%

Arksnasa- Even though it was not expected to be competitive in the general, Arkansas had an open gubernatorial seat with an interesting Republican primary. It pitted experience establishment favourite Leslie Rutledge, the incumbent State Attorney General, against the visible, Trump-backed former White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee-Sanders, the daughter of former Governor Mike Huckabee. In a close race between a local politician and a nationalized Trumpist figure, the latter prevailed when Huckabee-Sanders won a close race. Democrats nominated entrepreneur Supha Xayprasith-Mays, who hopes to do the impossible and beat the controversial Republican.

Arksansas 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee-Sanders- 55.1% ✓
Attorney General Leslie Rutledge- 44.9%

California- After losing the 2021 recall election, California Republicans weren't very motivated, but were ready to try again. Despite missing the runoff in the Senate race, they did manage to get into the second round of the gubernatorial race with their 2021 leading candidate- conservative talkshow host Larry Elder.

California 2022 Gubernatorial Primary (Results):
Governor Gavin Newsome (I)- 54.9% ✓
Talkshow Host Larry Elder- 17.1% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Kevin Faulconer- 12.7%
Businessman John Cox- 6.8%
Landlord Kevin Paffrath- 3.3%
Activist Louis J. Marinelli- 1.5%
Reality Star Caitlyn Jenner- 1.2%
Others- 2.5%

Colorado- With the popular Governor Jared Polis running for reelection in an increasingly liberal state, Republicans had a large but thin field, with no major candidate except University of Colorado Regent Heidi Ganahl, the state's only statewide elected Republican, who won the nomination, beating her closest rival, former Parker Mayor and 2018 candidate Greg Lopez.

Colorado 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
UC Regent Heidi Ganahl- 61.6% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Greg Lopez- 24.9%
Fmr. Mayor Benjamin Huseman- 6.3%
Veteran Jim Rundberg- 1.1%
Others- 6.1%

Florida- Republican Ron DeSantis is not only one of the most hated Republicans among Democratic activists, but also the tentative frontrunner of the 2024 Republican Presidential primary in case Trump doesn't run. This leads to a very nationalized race, with U.S. Representative and former Governor Charlie Crist, Agriculture Commissioner and the only statewide elected Democrat Nikki Fried and State Senator Annette Taddeo. After a spirited primary, Crist won the nomination to face DeSantis.

Florida 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Charlie Crist - 38.2% ✓
Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried- 31.9%
State Senator Annette Taddeo- 29.5%
Others- 0.4%

Georgia- Initially looking like he's vulnerable to a challenge from a pro-election conspiracy candidate, Georgia governor Brian Kemp, who came under fire from Trump for refusing to tamper with election results showing Biden won the state, easily took down his chief challenger- former State Representative and Democrat-turned-Republican Vernon Jones. Among Democrats, their star in the state, 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, is running for a rematch.

Georgia 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Governor Brian Kemp (I)- 60.9% ✓
Fmr. State Representative Vernon Jones- 33.1%
Educator Kandiss Taylor- 5.7%
Others- 0.3%

Hawaii- With incumbent Governor David *ge term-limited, Democrats had an open primary in which the winner was pretty much guaranteed to go on and become the next Governor. The candidates were former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell, a moderate Democrat who was deeply unpopular by the end of his tenure, former First Lady Vicky Cayetano, Lieutenant Governor Josh Green, former Lieutenant Governor Doug Chin and former U.S. Representative Colleen Hanabusa. After a tight primary, Hanabusa won an upset and finally returned to political prominence. Republicans nominated martial artist B.J. Penn against her.

Hawaii 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Fmr. U.S. Representative Colleen Hanabusa - 27.0% ✓
Lieutenant Governor Josh Green- 25.9%
Fmr. First Lady Vicky Cayetano- 19.6%
Fmr. Mayor kirk Caldwell- 15.2%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Doug Chin- 12.3%

Idaho- Despite incumbent Governor Brad Little running for reelection, he had several challengers from the right, most notably Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeachin, along with anti-government activist Ammon Bundy and others.

In the end, however, Little prevailed and defeated his Lieutenant Governor.

Idaho 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Governor Brad Little (I)- 59.7% ✓
Lieutenant Governor anice McGeachin- 33.1%
Activist Ammon Bundy- 4.4%
Others- 2.8%

Illinois- Despite many progressives doubting him in 2018, Governor J.B. Pritzker had been very popular among Democrats. In an increasingly polarized environment Republicans have little hope of unseating him, especially after nominating conservative State Senator
Darren Bailey.

Iowa- With Democrats feeling little hope of beating Republican incumbent Kim Reynolds, their field was fairly thin, with their stars, Congresswoman Cindy Axne and Auditor Rob Sand, deciding to run for reelection. Businessman and 2018 Secretary of State nominee Deidre DeJear, State Representative Ras Smith and State Senator Pam Jochum were the only candidates in the race. In the end, Smith prevailed.

Iowa 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
State Representative Ras Smith - 45.5% ✓
State Senator Pam Jochum- 42.5%
Businessman Deidre DeJear- 11.8%
Others- 0.7%

Kansas- In this conservative state, incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly is one of the most vulnerabel Democratic Governors. The Republicans nominated Attorney General Derek Schmidt against her with little opposition.

Maine- Former Governor Paul LePage, a very controversial right-wing Republican, is trying a comeback in the swing state of Maine, running against the incumbent Democrat, Janet Mills and backed by moderate Susan Collins. Both were nominated with little opposition.

Maryland- With incumbent Republican Larry Hogan, a rare Republican who managed to win impressing victories in the liberal north-east, term-limited, his party hopes to do the impossible and keep his seat. The candidates were Delegate Daniel Cox, former Delegate and perenniel candidate Robin Ficker, Secretary of Commerce and former Delegate Kelly Schulz, Secretary of Natural Resources and former Delegate Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio, former Lieutenant Governor and RNC Chair Michael Steele, former Anne Arundel County Executive Steve Schuh and attorney Joe Werner (a former Democrat). In the end, Steele surprisingly emerged victorious, becoming a rare moderate Republican in the world of a hard-right GOP.

The field of Democrat seeing a golden opportunity for a high position was even larger- State Comptroller Peter Franchot, former Attorney General Doug Gansler, former Prince George's County Executive and 2018 Gubernatorial candidate Rushern Baker, former U.S. Secretary of Education John King, former U.S. Secretary of Labor and DNC Chair Tom Perez, author and entrepreneur Wes Moore, former Obama Administration official Ashwani Jain, businessman Mike Rosenbaum and nonprofit executive Jon Baron. In an upset, Perez emerged as the winner, and the likely next Governor of Maryland- pitting former Chairs of the RNC and the DNC.

Maryland 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. RNC Chair Michael Steele- 25.0% ✓
Maryland Secretary of Commerce Kelly Schulz- 23.8%
Fmr. Anne Arundel County Executive Steve Schuh- 22.3%
State Delegate Daniel Cox- 13.9%
Maryland Secretary of Natural Resources Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio- 11.3%
Fmr. State Delegate Robin Ficker- 3.1%
Attorney Joe Werner- 0.6%

Maryland 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Fmr. DNC Chair Tom Perez- 21.7% ✓
State Comptroller Peter Franchot- 21.1%
Fmr. Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker- 17.5%
Fmr. Attorney General Doug Gansler- 12.0%
Fmr. U.S. Secretary of Education John King- 10.9%
Author Wes Moore- 9.6%
Businessman Mike Rosenbaum- 3.2%
Mr. Ashwani Jain- 2.7%
Mr. Jon Baron- 1.3%

Massachusetts- In another liberal northeastern state with a Republican Governor, incumbent Governor Charlie Baker was very popular with voters overall and almost guaranteed reelection- if only he emerged from the Republican primary. Unfourtunately for him, he was challenged by former State Representative and 2018 Senate nominee Geoff Diehl, a Trump-endorsed conservative. The primary between them was tough, with Baker arguing for his electabiliy and Diehl saying he doesn't represent Republican voters. In the end, Diehl took down Baker.

Among the Democrats, Attorney General Maura Healey was easily chosen as the nominee, beating State Senator Sonia Chang-Díaz, former State Senator Benjamin Downing, and political science professor Danielle Allen.

Massachusetts 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. State Representative Geoff Diehl- 52.4% ✓
Governor Charlie Baker (I)- 47.5%
Others- 0.1%

Massachusetts 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Attorney General Maura Healey- 52.3% ✓
State Senator Sonia Chang-Díaz- 28.2%
Professor Danielle Allen- 12.4%
Fmr. State Senator Benjamin Downing- 6.8%
Others- 0.3%

Michigan- One of the Democratic Governors most disliked by Republicans, even facing a kidnap plot during the covid-19 lockdowns, Gretchen Whitmer prepared to face a tough race in a presumably hostile political environment. The Republicans nominated former Detroit Police Chief James Craig against her, defeating businessman and nominee for Governor in 2018 and Senator in 2020, former Attorney General Mike Cox, businessman Garrett Soldano and others.

Michigan 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. Police Chief James Craig- 29.8% ✓
Businessman John James- 27.5%
Fmr. Attorney General Mike Cox- 17.4%
Businessman Garrett Soldano- 9.0%
TV Commentator Tudor Dixon- 4.6%
State Police Captain Mike Brown- 4.1%
Businessman Austin Chenge- 2.3%
Planning Commissioner Allan Kelley- 1.8%
Others- 3.5%

Minnesota- Tim Walz, considered fairly popular, was still a target Republicans hoped to take out. Initially, State Senator and former Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka, former State Senator and notorious covid denialist Scott Jensen, State Senator Michelle Benson, former State GOP Chair Jennifer Carnahan and others ran. However, the entrance of MyPillow CEO and notorious election conspiracy backer Mike Lindell scrambled the field. Carnahan dropped out, and Lindell ended up easily winning the nomination.

Minnesota 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Businessman Mike Lindell- 40.0% ✓
State Senator Paul Gazelka- 30.6%
Fmr. State Senator Scott Jensen- 13.1%
State Senator Michelle Benson- 11.6%
Others- 4.7%

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Midterms Loom - Gubernatorial Edition (Part 2)

Nebraska- With Governor Pete Ricketts term-limited, the Republican open field in this conservative state drew a large field. Former Governor Dave Heineman, rancher and pro-Trump activist Charles Herbster, State Senator Brett Lindstrom and University of Nebraska Board of Regents member Jim Pillen. In the end, Heineman used his name recognition to emerge with the win, and will likely take his old office again. Democrats nominated State Senator Carol Blood.

Nebraska 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. Governor Dave Heineman- 41.2% ✓
Rancher Charles Herbster- 29.2%
Regent Jim Pillen- 27.4%
State Senator Brett Lindstrom- 15.6%
Others- 2.2%

Nevada- In another of the GOP's major targets this year, Nevada Governor Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, was challenged by a wide Republican field featuring former U.S. Senator Dean Heller, U.S. Representative Mark Amodei, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee, attorney and retired professional boxer Joey Gilbert, Las Vegas City Councillor Michele Fiore and others. In a rare win for a non-radical, Heller won the nomination.

Nevada 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. Senator Dean Heller- 28.6% ✓
Sheriff Joe Lombardo- 26.9%
U.S. Representative Mark Amodei- 19.7%
Attorney Joey Gilbert- 17.4%
Mayor John Lee- 3.6%
Others- 3.8%

New Hampshire- With Governor Chris Sununu going for a failed Senate run, the race to replace him featured a crowded two-way open field. Among the Republicans, two former Senators, Kelly Ayotte and Scott Brown (who represented Massachusetts), were running, as well as former Franklin City Councilor Karen Testerman. Ayotte took the win with her name recognition. The Democratic field was scrambled by the entrance of former U.S. Representative Carol Shea-Porter, who was handily nominated.

New Hampshire 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. Senator Kelly Ayotte- 70.4% ✓
Fmr. Senator Scott Brown- 25.9%
Fmr. City Councilor Karen Testerman- 3.7%

New Mexico- Believing they could break through in the state this year, the GOP makes serious efforts to challenge Michelle Lujan Grisham. Former weatherman and 2020 Senate nominee Mark Ronchetti, Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block, State Rep. Rebecca Dow, businessman Louie Sanchez and veteran Gregory Zanetti ran against her, with Ronchetti emerging victorious due to his name recognition and perceived electability.

New Mexico 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Fmr. Weatherman Mark Ronchetti- 37.7% ✓
County Commissioner Jay Block- 30.7%
State Representative Rebecca Dow- 19.6%
Veteran Gregory Zanetti- 8.8%
Businessman Louie Sanchez- 2.6%
Others- 0.6%

New York- The gubernatorial race in the Empire State became interesting when Andrew Cuomo, marred by sexual harrassment allegations, resigned from his Governorship. The new Governor, former Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul, was challenged by former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams. However, she easily defeated the competition.

On the Republican side, despite little hope of winning, there was a contest between Andrew Giuliani, a Newsmax TV personality and son of the Trump-friendly former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Congressman Lee Zeldin, former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, Lewis County Sheriff Mike Carpinelli and others. Despite Giuliani's support among the right, Zeldin narrowly prevailed.

New York 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Governor Kathy Hochul (I)- 51.6% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Bill de Blasio- 25.9%
Public Advocate Jumaane Williams- 22.5%

New York 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin- 44.9% ✓
Mr. Andrew Giuliani- 38.6%
Fmr. County Executive Rob Astorino- 13.5%
Sheriff Mike Carpinelli- 1.7%
Others- 1.3%

Ohio- After choosing to pursue a prudent covid-19 policy, Governor Mike DeWine faced a tough primary from former Representative Jim Renacci. In the end, he narrowly prevailed, surprising some observers who expected an easy Renacci win. Democrats had a contest between two candidates as well- Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley and Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley. Despite being the Mayor of the smaller town, Whaley prevailed.

Ohio 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Governor Mike DeWine (I)- 44.9% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Jim Renacci- 38.6%
Farmer Joe Blystone- 3.2%

Ohio 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Mayor Nan Whaley- 51.6% ✓
Mayor John Cranley- 25.9%

Oklahoma- In this heavily Republican state, Democrats had little hope, but they still got a very formidable nominee- Joy Hofmeister, the Republican-turned-Democrat State Superintendent, who defeated progressive former State Senator Connie Johnson in the primary. Incumbent Republican Governor Kevin Stitt defeated his vaccine-skeptic primary opponent, Mark Sherwood.

Oklahoma 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister- 51.6% ✓
Former State Senator Connie Johnson- 25.9%

Oregon- With Governor Kate Brown retiring, Oregon finally had a competitive Democratic primary between State House Speaker Tina Kotek, State Treasurer Tobias Read, Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum NYT Columnist Nicholas Kristof, Yamhill County Commissioner Casey Kulla and others. Kotek, the state party favourite, emerged as the victor. Republicans nominated Dr. Bud Pierce, their 2016 nominee, who defeated a large field of minor candidates including Baker City Mayor Kerry McQuisten, entrepreneur Nick Hess, Sandy Mayor Stan Pulliam and Oregon Institute of Technology Board of Trustees member Jessica Gomez. Along with Pierce, Democratic State Senator Betsy Johnson also announced an independent run to challenge Kotek.

Oregon 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
State House Speaker Tina Kotek- 31.9% ✓
State Treasurer Tobias Read- 28.5%
Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum- 25.3%
County Commissioner Casey Kulla- 5.7%
Journalist Nicholas Kristof- 5.2%
Others- 3.4%

Oregon 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Dr. Bud Pierce- 35.9% ✓
Mayor Stan Pulliam- 29.4%
Mayor Kerry McQuisten- 16.8%
Trustee Jessica Gomez- 8.6%
Entrepreneur Nick Hess- 2.9%
Others- 6.4%

Pennsylvania- Just like its Senate race, the gubernatorial race in Pennsylvania is considered one of the most important key races in the country. Democrats fielded a very formidable candidate in Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who won without contest, and Republicans had a contested primary between former U.S. Representative and 2018 Senate nominee Lou Barletta, State Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman, State Senator Scott Martin, State Senator Dan Laughlin (running as a pragmatist Republican), State Senator Doug Mastriano, former U.S. Attorney William McSwain, American Conservative Union Vice Chair Charlie Gerow, Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale, former Corry Mayor Jason Monn, attorney Jason Richey, Chester County Chamber of Commerce CEO Guy Ciarrocchi, renowned cardiothoracic Nche Zama and others. Mastriano, running as a far-right pro-Trump candidate who promotes election conspiracy theories, emerged with the win, beating out the favourite Barletta.

Pennsylvania 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
State Senator Doug Mastriano- 22.0% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Lou Barletta- 18.3%
State Senator Jake Corman- 13.5%
State Senator Scott Martin- 9.5%
State Senator Dan Laughlin- 7.9%
Fmr. U.S. Attorney William McSwain- 7.4%
County Commissioner Joe Gale- 5.7%
Attorney Jason Richey- 3.7%
Activist Charlie Gerow- 3.4%
Fmr. Mayor Mayor Jason Monn- 2.8%
Mr. Guy Ciarrocchi- 2.6%
Dr. Nche Zama- 1.9%
Others- 1.3%

Rhode Island- With the former Governor Gina Raimondo becoming Commerce Secretary, the Rhode Island Democratic gubernatorial primary got a bit less open- Lieutenant turned Governor Daniel McKee became the incumbent. However, his relatively conservative positions put him on course for a tough primary, with Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, General Treasurer Seth Magaziner, former Secretary of State and 2018 gubernatorial challenger Matt Brown and businesswoman and Dodd family member Helena Foulkes running against him. In the end, Gorbea prevailed in a close primary and will face the Republican nominee, State House Minority Leader Blake Filippi, in the general.

Rhode Island 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea- 27.6% ✓
General Treasurer Seth Magaziner- 23.2%
Governor Daniel McKee (I)- 21.1%
Fmr. Secretary of State Matt Brown- 19.6%
Businesswoman Helena Foulkes- 7.0%
Others- 1.5%

South Carolina- In this heavily Republican-leaning state, Democrats have little chance of beating Governor Henry McMaster. However, they still got a strong candidate in former Congressman Joe Cunningham, who defeated State Senator Mia McLeod and social justice advocate Gary Votour in the primary.

South Carolina 2022 Gubernatorial Democratic Primary (Results):
Fmr. U.S. Representative Joe Cunningham- 55.1% ✓
State Senator Mia McLeod- 39.6%
Activist Gary Votour- 5.3%

Texas- After his landslide victory in the 2018 gubernatorial election, Governor Greg Abbott became one of the most hated Republicans by Democrats, due to being the face of the harshest anti-abortion law in the country, an opposition to vaccine mandates and a failure to handle a cold weather crisis in 2021 that resulted from the lack of investment in electricity infraustracture but resulted in numerous deaths but that he blamed on Democrats. However, he was still primaried from the right by former state GOP Chair and Florida Congressman Allen West, former State Senator Don Huffines, Youtuber and right wing activist Chad Prather and others. Unsurprisingly, with Trump's endorsement, Abbott turned back the challenges. Democrats easily nominated former Congressman, 2018 Senate nominee and 2020 Presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke, but the race was turned on its head when actor Matthew McConaughey announced an independent bid with vague positions on the issues.

Texas 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
Governor Greg Abbott (I)- 57.4% ✓
Fmr. Texas GOP Chair Allen West- 20.4%
Fmr. State Senator Don Huffines- 16.8%
Activist Chad Prather- 2.3%
Others- 3.1%

Vermont- After his landslide victory in 2020, Governor Phil Scott remained popular due to his covid-19 handling and his support for the Biden Administration's vaccine mandates despite being a Republican. Democrats still nominated former Vermont Education Secretary Rebecca Holcombe against him. Neither faced significant primaries.

Wisconsin- After defeating Scott Walker in 2018, Governor Tony Evers tried to govern as a progressive Democrat, but faced obstruction to anything he tried to do from local Republicans, who controlled the gerrymandered State House and Senate. Now, these same Republicans itch to defeat him. Those that announced included former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, State Senate President Chris Kapenga, State Assemblyman John Macco, businessman Jonathan Wichmann and others. In the end, Kapenga defeated Kleefisch and would go on to challenge Evers.

Wisconsin 2022 Gubernatorial Republican Primary (Results):
State Senator Chris Kapenga- 45.7% ✓
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch- 43.2%
State Assemblyman John Macco- 8.6%
Businessman Jonathan Wichmann- 1.8%
Others- 0.7%

[America Needs R'hllor]

In the World- French and Election Heats Up, Australian Labor prevails, South Korea reelects Democrats


Sources: Wikipedia

As the French prepare to head to the polls and elect a new President- or reelect an old one- next month, other major elections made global impact in March.

At the beginning of March, in the 6th, the Governor of Gyeonggi Province Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party's candidate who ran as a progressive, transformative and sometimes-populist candidate, was chosen as South Korea's next President, replacing the term-limited Moon Jae-in from the same party, despite the latter's unpopularity. Lee defeated the nominee of the People Power Party, the newest united conservative party in the country, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl.

South Korean 2022 Presidential Election (Results):
Governor Lee Jae-myung (Democratic Party)- 47.3% ✓
Fmr. Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl (People Power Party)- 43.8%
National Assemblywoman Sim Sang-jung (Justice Party)- 4.6%
Fmr. National Assemblyman Ahn Cheol-soo (People Party)- 3.1%
Others- 1.2%

Later in the month, in March 19th, Australia held its own election, and it resulted in the Labor Party coming back to power for the first time since 2010. This was attributed to the Liberal-National Coalition's Prime Minister Scott Morrison's mishandling of the covid-19 epidemic, as well as a competent campaign by Labor's Anthony Albanese. The new Prime Minister, a former Deputy Prime Minister and Cabinet Minister in the Rudd and Gillard governments, was likened by many to Olaf Scholz in Germany and Joe Biden in the United States- all veteran politicians with wide experience deemed by some as boring, but able to succeed in a country desperate for a safe hand. Albanese, however, is aligned with the Labor left and promised during the campaign to take Austalia in a much more progressive direction.

Australian 2022 House of Representatives Federal Election (Results- First Round):
Labor Party (Anthony Albanese)- 39.7% (93 Seats)
Liberal/National Coalition (Scott Morrison)- 37.5% (52 Seats)
Green Party (Adam Bandt)- 13.2% (1 Seat)
Others- 9.6% (5 Seats)

Australian 2022 House of Representatives Federal Election (Results- First Round):
Labor Party (Anthony Albanese)- 55.3% (93 Seats) ✓
Liberal/National Coalition (Scott Morrison)- 44.7% (52 Seats)

With a majority in the House of Representatives and support from the Greens in the Senate, Albanese started his first term with a strong mandate.

With the elections of Lee and Albanese, the global center-left got a further boost, and what seemed to be a narrative of "resurgence" for traditional center-left parties got further boost.

However, the biggest test for that so-called trend would come from France. President Emmanuel Macron, still very much favoured for reelection, remained the strongest candidate in the first round through the year, but the situation below him on the graph was much more volatile. At first, the surge of far-right journalist Eric Zemmour brought the traditional far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, to the defensive as she struggled to keep her previously assured place in the second round. While Zemmour's initial surge, that culminated in leading Le Pen, waned somehow, the two remained locked in a close battle for prominence. Xavier Bertrand, the candidate of the right-wing Les Republicains party, hoping to take advantage of the split, seemeed to be mostly harmed by Zemmour.

Broken up and in pieces, the center-left candidates hoped to get back into relevance, but for a long time they couldn't reach an agreement. Anne Hidalgo of the Socialists, Yannick Jadot of the Ecologists, the far-left Jean-Luc Melenchon, the independent Socialist Arnaud Montebourg and the Communist Roussel all ran on a left-wing lane.

But by February 2022, the center-left field started to get leaner. Following a successful debate, Jadot experienced a surge in support, and Hidalgo's weak polling numbers convinced her and the PS leadership that the best chance would be a reverse of their 2017 deal- Hidalgo dropped out and endorsed the Green Party's Jadot, who promised to appoint the Socialist Party's First Secretary, Olivier Faure, as Prime Minister if elected President. The PS infraustracture lined up behind Jadot and the Ecologists, and Hidalgo who returned to her job as Mayor of Paris campaigned for him based on their shared environmentalist values. Montebourg dropped out next, endorsing Jadot, and Roussel did too, though he didn't make an outright endorsement.

Melenchon, the fourth place finisher of the 2017 election, repeatedly said he would not drop out for anyone. But a string of strange, conspirational and antisemitic statements lead to a drop in support for him, and the messege that Jadot is the chief left-wing candidate caused many who supported Melenchon to go for Jadot in an attempt to strengthen him. In that situation, Jadot's polling numbers surged, and some polls started showing him threatening to get into the second round.

As the final weeks of the election approach,

2022 French Presidential Election (Polling)
President Emmanuel Macron (LREM)- 26%
National Assemblywoman Marine Le Pen (RN)- 20%
MEP Yannik Jadot (EELV\PS)- 17%
Journalist Éric Zemmour (Independent)- 14%
Hauts-de-France Regional Council President Xavier Bertrand (LR)- 13%
National Assemblyman Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI)- 4%
National Assemblyman Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF)- 2%
Others/Undecided- 4%

Meanwhile, Hungary is also facing in a few weeks its closest election in recent years, with a united opposition ready to fight the illiberal Prime Minister Orban in a first-past-the-post system that was supposed to favour Orban's Fidesz. The opposition's candidate, Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony, ran a strong campaign against Orban and though the polls are hard to trust here, have been gaining in the polls.

2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election (Polling)
DK-Jobbik-MSZP-Dialogue-LMP-Momentum-MMM (Gergely Karácsony)- 47%
Fidesz–KDNP (Viktor Orbán)- 44%
Our Homeland (László Toroczkai)- 4%
Two Tailed Dog Party (Gergely Kovács)- 2%
Others/Undecided- 5%

In Israel, despite constant disagreements between the very ideologically different parts of a government that spans from the right-wing Home Minister Ayelet Shaked and the left-wing Environmental Protection Minister Tamar Zandberg, the coalition passed a budget for the years 2021-2022 and continued working. There was loud opposition from Likud and its partners in the right-wing opposition, coupled with increasingly deranged conspiracy theories about former Bibi allies turned vital members of the government such as Prime Minister Naftali Bennet and Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar. But that loud opposition, and the presence of Benjamin Netanyahu whose trial dragged on, seemed to only serve as glue for the coalition.

Next Israeli Knesset Election (Polling)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 31 Seats
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 20 Seats
Labour (Merav Michaeli)- 11 Seats
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 9 Seats
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 8 Seats
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 7 Seats
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats
Yamina (Naftali Bennet)- 6 Seats
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 6 Seats
Meretz (Nitzan Horovitz)- 5 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 5 Seats
Ra'am (Mansour Abbas)- 5 Seats
New Hope (Gideon Sa'ar)- 0 Seats

[America Needs R'hllor]

In France and Hungary, global far-right dealt a grievous blow


Source: Wikipedia

PARIS - In a shock that sent jolts all over Europe, polls got the first round of France's Presidential election dead wrong. The far right, widely considered on the rise, was locked out of the second round- both because of much less support than anticipated and a right-wing vote split.

Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent President, easily took the first place in the first round. Coming second was, surprisingly, Ecologist candidate Yannick Jadot, who had the support of the Socialist and Communist parties as well. With far-left candidate Melenchon collapsing in support, Jadot had nearly-unified support from the left pole. Meanwhile, on the right, the Republicans nominated right-wing candidate Xavier Bertrand, while TV personality Eric Zemmour and National Front Leader Marine Le Pen ran as competing far-right candidates. This split on the right allowed Jadot to snatch the second round from Le Pen, the big hope of the European far-right. Macron is considered heavily favoured in the second round- in a country where left-wing candidates took just a bit over 20%, right-wing and centrist voters are expected to back him and give him a large margin in the second round. However, running against someone other than Le Pen might be unpredictable.

2022 French Presidential Election First Round (Results)
President Emmanuel Macron (LREM)- 27.2% ✓
MEP Yannick Jadot (EELV\PS)- 18.7% ✓
National Assemblywoman Marine Le Pen (RN)- 17.8%
Hauts-de-France Regional Council President Xavier Bertrand (LR)- 15.6%
Journalist Éric Zemmour (Independent)- 11.2%
National Assemblyman Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI)- 3.4%
National Assemblyman Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF)- 2.9%
Others- 3.2%

Also in April, an election was held in Hungary with an arguably even more surprising result- the defeat of the illiberal Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party against a wide coalition of opposition parties from left to right. With almost no votes wasted- and about a half of them by the far-right party Our Homeland- the opposition was able to defeat Fidesz candidates in many constituencies, especially urban and medium-size towns, and do well on the list election as well. All in all, The opposition ended up beating Orban's party by over 1%, and overperforming in the seat count (meaning that Orban's purposefully unfair system backfired).

2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election (Results)
DK-Jobbik-MSZP-Dialogue-LMP-Momentum-MMM (Gergely Karácsony)- 47.5% (112 Seats) ✓
Fidesz–KDNP (Viktor Orbán)- 46.2% (87 Seats)
Our Homeland (László Toroczkai)- 3.2% (0 Seats)
Two Tailed Dog Party (Gergely Kovács)- 1.4% (0 Seats)
Others/Undecided- 1.7%

Gergely Karácsony, the Mayor of Budapest, was supposed to become the new Prime Minister now, after a quick negotiation between the opposition parties. However, Viktor Orban declared that the election's were "fraudulent" and blamed foreign interference from Jewish billionaire George Soros, the Biden administration and the European Union for "rigging it" against him. European leaders including President Macron and Chancellor Scholz declared that they "strongly urge Prime Minister Orban to respect the people's will" and accused him of "fabricating a conspiracy theory to explain his loss". In the end, after nearly reaching a confrontation with the European powers, Orban ceded power and Karacsony became the new Hungarian Prime Minister.

[America Needs R'hllor]

As Midterms Approach, Biden Popularity on the Rise


Source: Wikipedia

WILMINGTON - As the United States gears up for fateful midterm elections, the race is considered close and hard, with competing trends fighting against each other. On the one hand, midterm elections usually go bad for the incumbent party, and the Republicans seem very motivated to vote. On the other hand, the new, very educated Democratic base is more likely to turn out on midterms, and President Biden's approval ratings has been steadily climbing back and recently eclipsed 50% again, after falling for a while due to an inability to pass a healthcare bill.

With the winds against him, many were surprised at Biden's ability to recover and remain popular, some even calling him "Teflon Joe". The Republican Party constantly tried to create new culture wars and take over the narrative, including things like "cancel culture", "critical race theory" and more, but it did not seem to impact polls. At the same time, the media seemed to constantly try to create another crisis to create more panic, but fear-mongering over a supply chain issue creating shortages and an increasing inflation proved overblown and the Biden administration handled them competently.

As the midterm gets increasingly spirited, Democrats tout Biden's achievements in the covid-19 recovery bill and the Build Back Better bill, and bring up the specter of Donald Trump, who continues to lie about a fraudulent 2020 election and brings fear to Republican leaders who worry it might hurt turnout. Republicans light up culture wars and attack Biden with increasing urgency- after he stuttered in a recent speech and nearly fell asleep in an event a day later, the newest narrative turned back to Biden's health, with Republicans such as Tucker Carlson, Senator Ted Cruz and Representative Madison Cawthorn saying the 25th amendment should be invoked to remove an unfit President. Media headlines that treated it as a legitimate debate, even bringing body language and medical experts to evaluate Biden's behavior, received strong pushback from Democrats, and polls show that both parties are at an all-time low trust in the media.

Despite Biden's approvals, Republicans still go into the midterms fairly confident in taking back a majority, even if narrow, in both houses of Congress. In the Senate, where they need to take just two seats to win a majority, Republicans are betting on a path of flipping seats in Georgia and Nevada, while keeping the hypercompetitive seats of Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

The last stretch of campaigning is here, and soon we will know the path America takes after electing Biden to the Presidency in 2020.

Polling in Key Races

Arizona 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
Senator Mark Kelly (I)- 49.7%
U.S. Representative Andy Biggs- 45.3%
Others/Unsure- 5.0%

Arizona 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Secretary of State Katie Hobbs- 48.1%
TV Anchor Kari Lake- 44.5%
Others/Unsure- 7.4%

Florida 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
Senator Marco Rubio (I)- 49.6%
U.S. Representative Val Demings- 46.2%
Others/Unsure- 4.2%

Florida 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Governor Ron DeSantis (I)- 48.3%
U.S. Representative Charlie Crist- 47.7%
Others/Unsure- 4.0%

Georgia 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
Senator Rephael Warnock (I)- 48.5%
Football player Herschel Walker- 46.0%
Others/Unsure- 5.5%

Georgia 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Fmr. State Representative Stacy Abrams- 47.9%
Governor Brian Kemp (I)- 47.0%
Others/Unsure- 5.1%

Massachusetts 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Attorney General Maura Healey- 67.4%
Fmr. State Representative Geoff Diehl- 25.8%
Others/Unsure- 6.8%

Michigan 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Governor Gretchen Whitmer (I)- 49.3%
Fmr. Police Chief James Craig- 46.3%
Others/Unsure- 4.4%

Minnesota 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Governor Tim Walz (I)- 54.3%
Businessman Mike Lindell- 41.9%
Others/Unsure- 3.8%

Nevada 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
Fmr. Attorney General Adam Laxalt- 48.1%
Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto (I)- 46.2%
Others/Unsure- 5.7%

New Hampshire 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
Senator Maggie Hassan (I)- 53.9%
Ret. Brigadier General Donald Bolduc- 41.2%
Others/Unsure- 4.9%

New Hampshire 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Fmr. Senator Kelly Ayotte- 49.2%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Carol Shea-Porter- 48.9%
Others/Unsure- 1.9%

North Carolina 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
TV Producer Lara Trump- 47.7%
NASA Astronaut Joan Higginbotham- 47.4%
Others/Unsure- 4.9%

Pennsylvania 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
U.S. Representative Conor Lamb- 50.2%
Veteran Sean Parnell- 46.1%
Others/Unsure- 3.7%

Pennsylvania 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Attorney General Josh Shapiro- 51.8%
State Senator Doug Mastriano- 43.9%
Others/Unsure- 4.3%

Texas 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Governor Greg Abbott (I)- 43.4%
Fmr. U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke- 41.8%
Actor Matthew McConaughey- 10.8%
Others/Unsure- 4.0%

Wisconsin 2022 Senate Election (Polling):
Fmr. U.S. Representative Sean Duffy- 48.8%
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns- 46.9%
Others/Unsure- 4.3%

Wisconsin 2022 Gubernatorial Election (Polling):
Governor Tony Evers (I)- 48.3%
State Senator Chris Kapenga- 47.1%
Others/Unsure- 4.6%


Final Ratings Map for Senate (Note: should be 51 D-49 R)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Note: this isn't meant to be a prediction. Politics suck but I'm imagining a better reality in this TL.

Eventually when I'm done with this TL I'll write something more balanced and dramatic though so stay tuned. Eventually

[America Needs R'hllor]

Macron reelected; Bolsonaro defeated


Source: Wikipedia, Flickr

PARIS - In France, the election runoff gave an easy victory for incumbent President Macron over Yannick Jadot, the center-left candidate endorsed by the Ecologists and Socialists. After the shocking exclusion of the right from the second round, far-right candidates Le Pen and Zemmour claimed election fraud and refused to endorse anyone, with Le Pen telling her voters to "oppose the radical, pro-immigrant left-wing agenda" which hinted at a preference for Macron, and Zemmour telling his supporters to boycott the election. However, LR candidate Xavier Bertrand endorsed Macron, as did Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, while Melenchon endorsed Jadot.

With support from the center, the center-right and much of the far-right, Macron was able to cruise to victory, though it was closer than expected.

2022 French Presidential Election Second Round (Results)
President Emmanuel Macron (LREM)- 55.1% ✓
MEP Yannick Jadot (EELV\PS)- 44.9%

2022 remained a bad year for the global populist right, as Brazil gave it another crushing defeat. At the end of October, the second round was held for its Presidential election. There, Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right extemist who became a symbol for environmentally destructive policy, negligent and anti-vaccine covid-19 policy and anti-LGBT rhetoric, and who had an enthusiastic endorsement from former President Donald Trump, was easily defeated by his rival, former President Lula da Silva from the social democratic Workers' Party. Once removed from office, Bolsonaro is expected to be tried for negligent handling of the coronavirus epidemic and the Amazon forests.

2022 Brazilian Presidential Election (Results)
Fmr. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT)- 59.3% ✓
President Jair Bolsonaro (APB)- 40.7%

Next year, two other countries are expected to hold elections that will be a great test on illiberal, authoritarian powers.

In Turkey, President Erdogan has seen his fourtune turn sour in public opinion as the economy continued to decline, and is currently trailing in the polls against several potential challengers. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu is currently expected to be the main opposition CHP's candidate against him, and his moderate, anti-corruption message and experience makes him a formidable challenger.

2023 Turkish Presidential Election (Polling)
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (AKP)- 39.2%
Ekrem İmamoğlu (CHP)- 37.9%
Selahattin Demirtaş (HDP)- 8.5%
Meral Akşener (İYİ)- 7.3%
Ali Babacan (DEVA)-2.8%
MP(Muharrem İnce)- 1.1%
Others/Undecided- 3.2%

In Poland, meanwhile, Donald Tusk's return to local politics as leader of KO, the Civic Coalition, signaled hope for the pro-democratic opposition. With the success of Hungary's opposition before their eyes, the Polish opposition parties are increasingly eyeing a union between some of their four main powers- Tusk's center-right Civic Coalition, Szymon Hołownia's new centrist Poland 2050 party, the center-left Lewica, and the Christian Democratic Polish Union, lead by PSL. For now, though, polls show the separate opposition trailing the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, an illiberal right-wing party that took steps to weaken the judiciary and European law.

2023 Polish Parliamentary Election (Polling)
Law and Justice (Jarosław Kaczyński)- 34.7%
Civic Coalition (Donald Tusk)- 25.3%
Poland 2050 (Szymon Hołownia)- 13.8%
Lewica (Włodzimierz Czarzasty)- 8.5%
Confederation (Krzysztof Bosak)- 7.7%
Polish Coalition (Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz)- 4.1%
Kukiz'15 (Paweł Kukiz)- 1.8%
Agreement (Jarosław Gowin)- 0.6%
Others/Undecided- 3.5%

Meanwhile, the Israeli big-tent coalition continued working. The ideological differences between the different coalition partners constantly flared, but they were handled by the coalition's captains, Prime Minister Bennet and Foreign Minister Lapid, and never threatened to actually bring down the government. As the Netanyahu trial continued, the panic level around him increased- if the government outlived his trial's end, he might not even be able to challenge it. The Israeli public also seemed to get used to the strange government, and its popularity was in a steady rise- or at least, its unpopularity was steadily decreasing.

Next Israeli Knesset Election (Polling)
Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)- 32 Seats
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid)- 19 Seats
Labour (Merav Michaeli)- 10 Seats
Shas (Aryeh Deri)- 8 Seats
Yamina (Naftali Bennet)- 7 Seats
United Torah Judaism (Ya'akov Litzman)- 7 Seats
Joint List (Ayman Odeh)- 7 Seats
Blue & White (Benny Gantz)- 6 Seats
Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich)- 6 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)- 5 Seats
Ra'am (Mansour Abbas)- 5 Seats
Meretz (Nitzan Horovitz)- 4 Seats
New Hope (Gideon Sa'ar)- 4 Seats

[hurricanehink]

This is good, can't wait for the midterms

[America Needs R'hllor]

2022 United States Midterm Elections


Source: Flickr

The 2022 United States midterm elections were held in November 8th, 2022. The final results took over two weeks to be finalized, as some close House of Representatives races took time to count and call. This election is considered today a turning point in the United State's political history, as an expected backlash against the Biden Administration like in most midterms historically resulted, instead, in a net positive for his party. This was considered by historians the first real rejection of Americans to the Reaganist Consensus of the past decades, and the beginning of the Bidenist Consensus.

In the Senate, Democrats gained two seats, while losing none. The closest races were in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and all went for the Democrats except for Wisconsin. The big story was the ability of Biden to keep and turn out his base of minority voters, including black voters and Hispanic voters who didn't swing left from the 2020 election but still remained fairly Democratic, and educated white voters, especially in suburbs, who continued trending sharply left.

In Nevada, where Republicans saw an opportunity, Democrats managed to save their incumbent, Catherine Cortez Masto, through strong support in Clark County with its population center of Las Vegas, and in the left-trending Washoe County. Despite Republican gainst among Hispanic voters, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt narrowly lost to Cortez Masto. Meanwhile, the open sets in the Midwestern states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania went different ways, and much of it was considered due to candidate quality- Sean Parnell, the Trump-endorsed Republican in Pennsylvania who faced allegations of domestic abuse and was seen as an extremist, allowed Democrat Conor Lamb to get strong turnout from the base, and though the Trumpist base turned out too, Parnell couldn't convince any Biden voters to go on his side and turned off even some Trump 2020 voters. In Wisconson, despite Republcians nominating a Trump-endorsed candidate in Sean Duffy, he was a good enough candidate to take advantage of the midterm trends and defeat Democrat Mandela Burns.

North Carolina had the biggest upset of the night- candidate quality once again proved decisive as the state turned blue again and chose astronaut Joan Higginbotham as Senator over Lara Trump by a fairly safe margin, considered a painful rebuke to Trumpism. Georgia continued its quick trend left as well, choosing Rephael Warnock again over Trump friend Herschel Walker by a surprisingly wide margin- this was attributed both to a strong Democratic state party and a strong campaign by Warnock. In Arizona, a Trumpist candidate against spoiled his party's chances as Mike Kelly beat Andy Biggs without much hardship. New Hampshire, where the strongest possible Republican candidate Chris Sununu embarrassingly lost the primary, gave Democrat Maggie Hassan an easy victory, and in Colorado Michael Bennet won a landslide.

Republicans had other bright spots in Iowa and Florida, where Chuck Grassley and Marco Rubio won reelection by safe margins, and in Ohio, where Josh Mandel won despite a closer-than-expected race that stemmed from his extremist rhetoric.

In the House, the banning of gerrymandering lead to a scrambling for maps made by independent commissions. States that couldn't manage to assemble a commission in time had maps drawn by courts. Overall, despite commissions in states like Florida, California, New York and Texas not exactly escaping the partisanship of the state's local government, the maps were a lot more balanced accross the board, and as Republicans controlled gerrymandering in most states after a 2010 election victory, this allowed for a small Democratic net loss in the election in spite of a narrower general margin between Democrats and Republicans than in 2020. The Democratic caucus now numbered 223 in the House, five less than in 2021, and the Republican caucus was 212, five more than in 2021.

These failures were blamed by many GOP leaders on Trump- his great influence on recruitment of candidates, supporting much more extreme candidates who believed in election conspiracy theories,

Alabama 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Mo Brooks- 63.6% ✓
State Representative Christopher England- 35.8%
Others- 0.6%

Alaska 2022 Senate Election (First Round):
Fmr. Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka- 36.8%
Senator Lisa Murkowski (I)- 32.4%
State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson- 28.4%
Mr. Dustin Darden- 2.4%

Alaska 2022 Senate Election (Allocated):
Senator Lisa Murkowski (I)- 58.5% ✓
Fmr. Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka- 41.5%

Arizona 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Mike Kelly (I)- 51.7% ✓
U.S. Representative Andy Biggs- 47.3%
Others- 1.0%

Arkansas 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Boozman (I)- 67.9% ✓
Fmr. City Alderman Jack Foster- 30.7%
Others- 1.4%

California 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Alex Padilla (I)- 73.8% ✓
Fmr. State Assemblyman Jerome Horton- 26.2%

Colorado 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Michael Bennet (I)- 54.2% ✓
Olympian Eli Bremer- 42.5%
Others- 3.3%

Connecticut 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Richard Blumenthal (I)- 67.2% ✓
Businessman Robert Hyde- 30.2%
Others- 2.6%

Florida 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Marco Rubio (I)- 50.4% ✓
U.S. Representative Val Demings- 43.9%
Others- 5.7%

Georgia 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Rephael Warnock (I)- 50.5% ✓
Football player Herschel Walker- 48.2%
Others- 1.3%

Hawaii 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Brian Schatz (I)- 72.7% ✓
Mr. Ron Curtis- 26.9%
Others- 0.4%

Idaho 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Mike Crapo (I)- 66.2% ✓
Businesswoman Nancy Harris- 32.6%
Others- 1.2%

Illinois 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Tammy Duckworth (I)- 56.2% ✓
Fmr. Officer Peggy Hubbard- 41.9%
Others- 1.9%

Indiana 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Todd Young (I)- 53.8% ✓
Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr.- 42.4%
Others- 3.8%

Iowa 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Chuck Grassley (I)- 54.2% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer- 45.2%
Others- 0.6%

Kansas 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Jerry Moran (I)- 57.2% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Mark Holland- 42.3%
Others- 0.5%

Kentucky 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Rand Paul (I)- 59.7% ✓
Fmr. State Representative Charles Booker- 37.5%
Others- 2.8%

Louisisna 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Kennedy (I)- 58.3% ✓
Veteran Luke Mixon- 21.7%
Activist Gary Chambers- 14.4%
Others- 5.6%

Maryland 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Chris Van Hollen (I)- 79.2% ✓
Activist Kim Klacik- 17.5%
Others- 3.3%

Missouri 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Billy Long- 52.7% ✓
Veteran Lucas Kunce- 45.7%
Others- 1.6%

Nevada 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (I)- 48.4% ✓
Fmr. Attorney General Adam Laxalt- 47.9%
Others- 3.7%

New Hampshire 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Maggie Hassan (I)- 52.8% ✓
Ret. Brigadier General Donald Bolduc- 45.9%
Others- 1.3%

New York 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Chuck Schumer (I)- 71.3% ✓
Businessman Antoine "Montaga" Tucker- 26.3%
Others- 2.4%

North Carolina 2022 Senate Election:
NASA Astronaut Joan Higginbotham- 49.5% ✓
TV Producer Lara Trump- 47.6%
Others- 2.9%

North Dakota 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Hoeven (I)- 82.6% ✓
Businessman Michael Steele- 13.6%
Others- 3.8%

Ohio 2022 Senate Election:
Fmr. Treasurer Josh Mandel- 49.2% ✓
U.S. Representative Tim Ryan- 48.0%
Others- 2.8%

Oklahoma 2022 Senate Election:
Senator James Lankford (I)- 61.3% ✓
Businessman Jason Bollinger- 35.5%
Others- 3.2%

Oregon 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Ron Wyden (I)- 58.3% ✓
Mrs. Jo Rae Perkins- 38.4%
Others- 3.3%

Pennsylvania 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Conor Lamb- 50.2% ✓
Veteran Sean Parnell- 48.0%
Others- 1.8%

South Carolina 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Tim Scott (I)- 62.4% ✓
State Representative Krystle Matthews- 36.9%
Others- 0.7%

South Dakota 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Thune (I)- 67.5% ✓
State Senator Troy Heinert- 30.3%
Others- 2.2%

Utah 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Mike Lee (I)- 51.8% ✓
Fmr. CIA Officer Evan McMullin- 43.5%
Others- 4.7%

Vermont 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Peter Welch- 67.0% ✓
Businessman Scott Milne- 31.6%
Others- 1.4%

Washington 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Patty Murray (I)- 61.6% ✓
Nurse Tiffany Smiley- 36.9%
Others- 1.5%

Wisconsin 2022 Senate Election:
Fmr. U.S. Representative Sean Duffy- 49.5% ✓
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns- 48.6%
Others- 1.9%

Senate Balance

The Democratic Caucus- 53 Seats ↑ (+2)
Democrats- 51 Seats
Democratic-Caucusing Independents- 2 Seats

The Republican Caucus- 47 Seats ↓ (-2)
Republicans- 47 Seats

[TwinGeeks99]

2022 United States Midterm Elections


Source: Flickr

The 2022 United States midterm elections were held in November 8th, 2022. The final results took over two weeks to be finalized, as some close House of Representatives races took time to count and call. This election is considered today a turning point in the United State's political history, as an expected backlash against the Biden Administration like in most midterms historically resulted, instead, in a net positive for his party. This was considered by historians the first real rejection of Americans to the Reaganist Consensus of the past decades, and the beginning of the Bidenist Consensus.

In the Senate, Democrats gained two seats, while losing none. The closest races were in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and all went for the Democrats except for Wisconsin. The big story was the ability of Biden to keep and turn out his base of minority voters, including black voters and Hispanic voters who didn't swing left from the 2020 election but still remained fairly Democratic, and educated white voters, especially in suburbs, who continued trending sharply left.

In Nevada, where Republicans saw an opportunity, Democrats managed to save their incumbent, Catherine Cortez Masto, through strong support in Clark County with its population center of Las Vegas, and in the left-trending Washoe County. Despite Republican gainst among Hispanic voters, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt narrowly lost to Cortez Masto. Meanwhile, the open sets in the Midwestern states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania went different ways, and much of it was considered due to candidate quality- Sean Parnell, the Trump-endorsed Republican in Pennsylvania who faced allegations of domestic abuse and was seen as an extremist, allowed Democrat Conor Lamb to get strong turnout from the base, and though the Trumpist base turned out too, Parnell couldn't convince any Biden voters to go on his side and turned off even some Trump 2020 voters. In Wisconson, despite Republcians nominating a Trump-endorsed candidate in Sean Duffy, he was a good enough candidate to take advantage of the midterm trends and defeat Democrat Mandela Burns.

North Carolina had the biggest upset of the night- candidate quality once again proved decisive as the state turned blue again and chose astronaut Joan Higginbotham as Senator over Lara Trump by a fairly safe margin, considered a painful rebuke to Trumpism. Georgia continued its quick trend left as well, choosing Rephael Warnock again over Trump friend Herschel Walker by a surprisingly wide margin- this was attributed both to a strong Democratic state party and a strong campaign by Warnock. In Arizona, a Trumpist candidate against spoiled his party's chances as Mike Kelly beat Andy Biggs without much hardship. New Hampshire, where the strongest possible Republican candidate Chris Sununu embarrassingly lost the primary, gave Democrat Maggie Hassan an easy victory, and in Colorado Michael Bennet won a landslide.

Republicans had other bright spots in Iowa and Florida, where Chuck Grassley and Marco Rubio won reelection by safe margins, and in Ohio, where Josh Mandel won despite a closer-than-expected race that stemmed from his extremist rhetoric.

In the House, the banning of gerrymandering lead to a scrambling for maps made by independent commissions. States that couldn't manage to assemble a commission in time had maps drawn by courts. Overall, despite commissions in states like Florida, California, New York and Texas not exactly escaping the partisanship of the state's local government, the maps were a lot more balanced accross the board, and as Republicans controlled gerrymandering in most states after a 2010 election victory, this allowed for a small Democratic net loss in the election in spite of a narrower general margin between Democrats and Republicans than in 2020. The Democratic caucus now numbered 223 in the House, five less than in 2021, and the Republican caucus was 212, five more than in 2021.

These failures were blamed by many GOP leaders on Trump- his great influence on recruitment of candidates, supporting much more extreme candidates who believed in election conspiracy theories,

Alabama 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Mo Brooks- 63.6% ✓
State Representative Christopher England- 35.8%
Others- 0.6%

Alaska 2022 Senate Election (First Round)
Fmr. Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka- 36.8%
Senator Lisa Murkowski (I)- 32.4%
State Senator Elvi Gray-Jackson- 28.4%
Mr. Dustin Darden- 2.4%

Alaska 2022 Senate Election (Allocated)
Senator Lisa Murkowski (I)- 58.5% ✓
Fmr. Department of Administration Commissioner Kelly Tshibaka- 41.5%

Arizona 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Mike Kelly (I)- 51.7% ✓
U.S. Representative Andy Biggs- 47.3%
Others- 1.0%

Arkansas 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Boozman (I)- 67.9% ✓
Fmr. City Alderman Jack Foster- 30.7%
Others- 1.4%

California 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Alex Padilla (I)- 73.8% ✓
Fmr. State Assemblyman Jerome Horton- 26.2%

Colorado 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Michael Bennet (I)- 54.2% ✓
Olympian Eli Bremer- 42.5%
Others- 3.3%

Connecticut 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Richard Blumenthal (I)- 67.2% ✓
Businessman Robert Hyde- 30.2%
Others- 2.6%

Florida 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Marco Rubio (I)- 50.4% ✓
U.S. Representative Val Demings- 43.9%
Others- 5.7%

Georgia 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Rephael Warnock (I)- 50.5% ✓
Football player Herschel Walker- 48.2%
Others- 1.3%

Hawaii 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Brian Schatz (I)- 72.7% ✓
Mr. Ron Curtis- 26.9%
Others- 0.4%

Idaho 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Mike Crapo (I)- 66.2% ✓
Businesswoman Nancy Harris- 32.6%
Others- 1.2%

Illinois 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Tammy Duckworth (I)- 56.2% ✓
Fmr. Officer Peggy Hubbard- 41.9%
Others- 1.9%

Indiana 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Todd Young (I)- 53.8% ✓
Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr.- 42.4%
Others- 3.8%

Iowa 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Chuck Grassley (I)- 54.2% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Representative Abby Finkenauer- 45.2%
Others- 0.6%

Kansas 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Jerry Moran (I)- 57.2% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Mark Holland- 42.3%
Others- 0.5%

Kentucky 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Rand Paul (I)- 59.7% ✓
Fmr. State Representative Charles Booker- 37.5%
Others- 2.8%

Louisisna 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Kennedy (I)- 58.3% ✓
Veteran Luke Mixon- 21.7%
Activist Gary Chambers- 14.4%
Others- 5.6%

Maryland 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Chris Van Hollen (I)- 79.2% ✓
Activist Kim Klacik- 17.5%
Others- 3.3%

Missouri 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Billy Long- 52.7% ✓
Veteran Lucas Kunce- 45.7%
Others- 1.6%

Nevada 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (I)- 48.4% ✓
Fmr. Attorney General Adam Laxalt- 47.9%
Others- 3.7%

New Hampshire 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Maggie Hassan (I)- 52.8% ✓
Ret. Brigadier General Donald Bolduc- 45.9%
Others- 1.3%

New York 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Chuck Schumer (I)- 71.3% ✓
Businessman Antoine "Montaga" Tucker- 26.3%
Others- 2.4%

North Carolina 2022 Senate Election:
NASA Astronaut Joan Higginbotham- 49.5% ✓
TV Producer Lara Trump- 47.6%
Others- 2.9%

North Dakota 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Hoeven (I)- 82.6% ✓
Businessman Michael Steele- 13.6%
Others- 3.8%

Ohio 2022 Senate Election:
Fmr. Treasurer Josh Mandel- 49.2% ✓
U.S. Representative Tim Ryan- 48.0%
Others- 2.8%

Oklahoma 2022 Senate Election:
Senator James Lankford (I)- 61.3% ✓
Businessman Jason Bollinger- 35.5%
Others- 3.2%

Oregon 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Ron Wyden (I)- 58.3% ✓
Mrs. Jo Rae Perkins- 38.4%
Others- 3.3%

Pennsylvania 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Conor Lamb- 50.2% ✓
Veteran Sean Parnell- 48.0%
Others- 1.8%

South Carolina 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Tim Scott (I)- 62.4% ✓
State Representative Krystle Matthews- 36.9%
Others- 0.7%

South Dakota 2022 Senate Election:
Senator John Thune (I)- 67.5% ✓
State Senator Troy Heinert- 30.3%
Others- 2.2%

Utah 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Mike Lee (I)- 51.8% ✓
Fmr. CIA Officer Evan McMullin- 43.5%
Others- 4.7%

Vermont 2022 Senate Election:
U.S. Representative Peter Welch- 67.0% ✓
Businessman Scott Milne- 31.6%
Others- 1.4%

Washington 2022 Senate Election:
Senator Patty Murray (I)- 61.6% ✓
Nurse Tiffany Smiley- 36.9%
Others- 1.5%

Wisconsin 2022 Senate Election:
Fmr. U.S. Representative Sean Duffy- 49.5% ✓
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Burns- 48.6%
Others- 1.9%

Senate Balance

The Democratic Caucus- 53 Seats ↑ (+2)
Democrats- 51 Seats
Democratic-Caucusing Independents- 2 Seats

The Republican Caucus- 47 Seats ↓ (-2)
Republicans- 47 Seats

Seems like a pipe dream now after what happened in Virginia and New Jersey.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Seems like a pipe dream now after what happened in Virginia and New Jersey.

1. This is not a prediction
2. Read the rest of the timeline for context

[OBD]

Where do I sell my soul to make this reality