God it would be so funny if he lost this after all the presidential hype.
It (probably) won't happen, but still, would be hysterical.
This is probably nowhere close to accurate. For some reason, Florida polls suck even when Trump's not on the ballot.
Polling here tends to suck because there are so many new people moving here from everywhere (Northeast, Midwest, Puerto Rico, etc.) There are so many cross-currents cancelling each other out, it's hard to get an accurate read on the current electorate. In general, you can count on both parties having high floors (47-48% of the vote); that remaining 4-5% slice is based on turnout, not really ideological.