MI-GOV Megathread: 👵🏻 Gram died alone.

[coloradocowboi]

Her and Mastriano would really get along greatly

https://twitter.com/emsteck/status/1585663292650954753

So democrats have been trying to destroy the United States ever since 1861…


That is a take

Especially considering it was republicans who wrecked the economy in the 1920s, 80s, 2000s and left it to democrats to clean up their mess

[Schiff for Senate]

I'm very curious to see how the Governor race goes by CD. Michigan has a ton of competitive districts, including like 3 possible tipping points, now and it could have implications down the ballot.

In 2018 Whitmer won comfortably statewide, but she won only 7 districts - the same 7 that are represented by Democrats in Congress. However, she came within a point of winning two of the 7 Schuette districts (both are in light red, in Southwest MI, and represented by impeacher Republicans - Meijer's and Upton's seats).

Obviously, redistricting eliminated a seat and changed some of the districts up, so 2022 will be a very different story on the CD level compared to 2018 (one obvious change: MI03 will definitely vote for Whitmer this year now that it's been moved to the left considerably).

[Orwell]

I'm very curious to see how the Governor race goes by CD. Michigan has a ton of competitive districts, including like 3 possible tipping points, now and it could have implications down the ballot.

In 2018 Whitmer won comfortably statewide, but she won only 7 districts - the same 7 that are represented by Democrats in Congress. However, she came within a point of winning two of the 7 Schuette districts (both are in light red, in Southwest MI, and represented by impeacher Republicans - Meijer's and Upton's seats).

Obviously, redistricting eliminated a seat and changed some of the districts up, so 2022 will be a very different story on the CD level compared to 2018 (one obvious change: MI03 will definitely vote for Whitmer this year now that it's been moved to the left considerably).

It'll probably be, Dixon wins 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, and 10 while Whitmer wins 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, and 13. Though if Dixon wins she'll probably make 8 (Flint) extremely close and 10 (Lansing) pretty close. I think both Kildee and Slotkin are going to win no matter what.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm very curious to see how the Governor race goes by CD. Michigan has a ton of competitive districts, including like 3 possible tipping points, now and it could have implications down the ballot.

In 2018 Whitmer won comfortably statewide, but she won only 7 districts - the same 7 that are represented by Democrats in Congress. However, she came within a point of winning two of the 7 Schuette districts (both are in light red, in Southwest MI, and represented by impeacher Republicans - Meijer's and Upton's seats).

Obviously, redistricting eliminated a seat and changed some of the districts up, so 2022 will be a very different story on the CD level compared to 2018 (one obvious change: MI03 will definitely vote for Whitmer this year now that it's been moved to the left considerably).

It'll probably be, Dixon wins 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, and 10 while Whitmer wins 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, and 13. Though if Dixon wins she'll probably make 8 (Flint) extremely close and 10 (Lansing) pretty close. I think both Kildee and Slotkin are going to win no matter what.

I personally think Whitmer wins 10 as well given Dem downballot support there; it voted for Peters in 2020 for instance despite Trump also carrying the district. Honestly, Whitmer has a good balance of support to narrowly win 3,7, and 8 as well (8 is home to Lansing, her home turf). Basically a simillar coalition to Peters 2020 but with a boost in the Lansing area and slightly less extreme polarization.

[Orwell]

I'm very curious to see how the Governor race goes by CD. Michigan has a ton of competitive districts, including like 3 possible tipping points, now and it could have implications down the ballot.

In 2018 Whitmer won comfortably statewide, but she won only 7 districts - the same 7 that are represented by Democrats in Congress. However, she came within a point of winning two of the 7 Schuette districts (both are in light red, in Southwest MI, and represented by impeacher Republicans - Meijer's and Upton's seats).

Obviously, redistricting eliminated a seat and changed some of the districts up, so 2022 will be a very different story on the CD level compared to 2018 (one obvious change: MI03 will definitely vote for Whitmer this year now that it's been moved to the left considerably).

It'll probably be, Dixon wins 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, and 10 while Whitmer wins 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, and 13. Though if Dixon wins she'll probably make 8 (Flint) extremely close and 10 (Lansing) pretty close. I think both Kildee and Slotkin are going to win no matter what.

I personally think Whitmer wins 10 as well given Dem downballot support there; it voted for Peters in 2020 for instance despite Trump also carrying the district. Honestly, Whitmer has a good balance of support to narrowly win 3,7, and 8 as well (8 is home to Lansing, her home turf). Basically a simillar coalition to Peters 2020 but with a boost in the Lansing area and slightly less extreme polarization.

Based on the new maps District 8 is Flint, District 7 is Slotkin's district and home to Lansing

Source: I'm literally living in the heart of 7 right now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I'm very curious to see how the Governor race goes by CD. Michigan has a ton of competitive districts, including like 3 possible tipping points, now and it could have implications down the ballot.

In 2018 Whitmer won comfortably statewide, but she won only 7 districts - the same 7 that are represented by Democrats in Congress. However, she came within a point of winning two of the 7 Schuette districts (both are in light red, in Southwest MI, and represented by impeacher Republicans - Meijer's and Upton's seats).

Obviously, redistricting eliminated a seat and changed some of the districts up, so 2022 will be a very different story on the CD level compared to 2018 (one obvious change: MI03 will definitely vote for Whitmer this year now that it's been moved to the left considerably).

It'll probably be, Dixon wins 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, and 10 while Whitmer wins 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, and 13. Though if Dixon wins she'll probably make 8 (Flint) extremely close and 10 (Lansing) pretty close. I think both Kildee and Slotkin are going to win no matter what.

I personally think Whitmer wins 10 as well given Dem downballot support there; it voted for Peters in 2020 for instance despite Trump also carrying the district. Honestly, Whitmer has a good balance of support to narrowly win 3,7, and 8 as well (8 is home to Lansing, her home turf). Basically a simillar coalition to Peters 2020 but with a boost in the Lansing area and slightly less extreme polarization.

Based on the new maps District 8 is Flint, District 7 is Slotkin's district and home to Lansing

Source: I'm literally living in the heart of 7 right now.

Oh sorry I got the numbering flipped. 8 used to be the Lansing based district. Re-numbering is confusing.

[ListMan38]

Being originally from Michigan, I can say with certainty that MI-GOP is allergic to good statewide candidates, and Whitmer is safe.

[Orwell]

Being originally from Michigan, I can say with certainty that MI-GOP is allergic to good statewide candidates, and Whitmer is safe.

Like? They had the Governors a statewide trifecta of statewide and legislature for 8 years, 4 years ago, held the AG and SOS from 03-19 for AG and 95-19 for SoS, Gov from 1991-2003 to 2011-2019, the Michigan GOP was dominant in state-level politics for 2 decades even when it consistently went for Democrats at a federal level, I'd say John James is a good statewide candidate he just got pretty unlucky in bad years for his party, but he'll be back in 2024 or 2026 for a crack at Governor or Senate. James held Stabenow to her closest election since she beat Spencer Abraham in 2000. Does GOP = Bad in your mind really overpower any logical thought?

[wbrocks67]

Kristina Karamo may be one of the worst statewide candidates anywhere this entire cycle, maybe only second to insane deniers like Marchant/Finchem/Mastriano, etc

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I think people forget is that MI is about 2 points bluer than either PA or WI yet people seem to often lump it in with the other 2. In close races that extra 2% is meaningful and is why I believe Whitmer is still favored. The state is also generally slightly more urban and less rural.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Kristina Karamo may be one of the worst statewide candidates anywhere this entire cycle, maybe only second to insane deniers like Marchant/Finchem/Mastriano, etc

She’s ten times worse than the former. Marchant/Finchem are just election deniers. Karamo has domestic violence allegations and Mastriano has white supremacist ties

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think someone was asking about this here recently.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1587833318304882689

[Orwell]

I think someone was asking about this here recently.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1587833318304882689

Based on my own gut feeling, I'd say Yes will pass close-ish to the Glenngariff poll

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think someone was asking about this here recently.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1587833318304882689

Based on my own gut feeling, I'd say Yes will pass close-ish to the Glenngariff poll

It won't be that large of a margin; I'm expecting like 62-38 though. Ballot initiatives sometimes suprise us but this will def pass, it's just a matter of by how much.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Simon_Schuster/status/1588137254958006279

[citizenZ]

https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1588353941019889664

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1588353941019889664

Ah, the old "If you stop for five seconds to do anything fun or light-hearted, it means you don't take the REAL ISSUES seriously!" either/or fallacy.

Not sure what that implies about all Trump's tweetstorms. Clearly he was wasting way too much time getting into petty fights on social media and not running the country or fighting COVID, to say nothing of his record-breaking golf habit.

And if you're trying to say this is "cringe," well, it's got nothing on "Gram died alone." To put it mildly.

[Alben Barkley]

One thing I think people forget is that MI is about 2 points bluer than either PA or WI yet people seem to often lump it in with the other 2. In close races that extra 2% is meaningful and is why I believe Whitmer is still favored. The state is also generally slightly more urban and less rural.

Actually PA is slightly more urban, but overall agreed.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I think people forget is that MI is about 2 points bluer than either PA or WI yet people seem to often lump it in with the other 2. In close races that extra 2% is meaningful and is why I believe Whitmer is still favored. The state is also generally slightly more urban and less rural.

Actually PA is slightly more urban, but overall agreed.

Depends upon how you measure it. PA is def denser but a lot of that comes from exurbs and dense rural areas whereas in MI, most of the rural communities are not very dense (by comparison).

[AnOdyssey]

Dixon is not winning. I live in a pretty red area in northern Michigan and barely see any Dixon signs except for those bunched up at the GOP HQ in town.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1589661736105545730
...

[bagelman]

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1589661736105545730
...

Groan. Republicans want to end democracy and make Trump our Dear Leader for life and Democrats pull sh**t like this that nobody save a microscopic group of terminal online woke dolts think is even remotely not a bad idea.

Thankfully, I doubt this misstep will change many minds tomorrow. It will be ignored by the vast majority of people, and that's a good thing.

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1589661736105545730
...

So? Trans people exist, and I think you'll find that average voters do not care remotely as much about worsening their lives and policing their language as you think they do.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/SteveGuest/status/1589661736105545730
...

So? Trans people exist, and I think you'll find that average voters do not care remotely as much about worsening their lives and policing their language as you think they do.

So? It's much easier to just ignore trans rights as an issue on the campaign trail (it's not like Trump is more in favor of it) and then actually act on it when you win. It's a net liability on the campaign trail, and has given us moments like when Elizabeth Warren said taxpayers should cover sex change operations for prisoners.

[LostFellow]

Broke: "People with a period" is deliberate trans-inclusion.
Woke: "People with a period" is deliberate post-menopause and pre-puberty exclusion.
Bespoke: "People with a period" is deliberate alliteration with "paying" as well.