MI-GOV Megathread: 👵🏻 Gram died alone.

[coloradocowboi]

Just as I said for Donna Shalala...

Jesus Christ, just give it up already.

Shalala ran 5 points behind Biden while James overperformed Trump by 2...

James and Trump both received 48%. 3rd Parties just caused Peters to do worse.

I also wonder if he can turn out all the low-propensity Trump voters who didn't come out in 2018, but did in 2020. I think the assumption that midterm turnout is favorable to Republicans isn't a very good one when they are doing their best to alienate educated, suburban voters.

He won Macomb Co. in 2020, but lost it two years earlier. If he can't win it against Whitmer, he's toast.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

John James is not the one to beat any D, he is a retreas

[Never Made it to Graceland]

I guess we can update this to governor.

[sting in the rafters]

Dems took the Senate race in Michigan for granted last cycle and Peters ran a lukewarm campaign. Whitmer should win a hypothetical general vs. James but Ds must be vigilant and not get caught napping.

[Real Texan Politics]

Even if he attacks Whitmer where it hurts like with covid lockdowns and such, it probably wouldn't help him much in the end.

Good luck to him though, he's definitely gonna need it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

James is the only CANDIDATE that can run in MI, what happens when he loses this time, they won't have an opponent with Stabenow in 2024

[Neptunium]

Definitely he would be favored:

(1) He nearly beaten the incumbent senator and did better then Trump did in 2020.

(2 )It is Biden midterm.

(3) MI is a purple state.

I think atlas user will still take him with a grain of salt, yet shocked by how he beaten the incumbent governor and blame the MI voter. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Definitely he would be favored:

(1) He nearly beaten the incumbent senator and did better then Trump did in 2020.

(2 )It is Biden midterm.

(3) MI is a purple state.

I think atlas user will still take him with a grain of salt, yet shocked by how he beaten the incumbent governor and blame the MI voter.  

Lol, Whitmer has a 50 percent approval rating, INCUMBENTs don't lose with a positive approvals

The best bet is Kelly in KS, but she is net positive as well

Rs have been losing seats in the state and federal Legislatures since they peaked in the Midwest under Hillary

[Brittain33]

Danny Tarkanian and Jim Oberweis must have adopted a child.

Myrth York is the birth mother

[GALeftist]

I'm torn on this; on the one hand, it's undeniable that James ran very strong campaigns in 2018 and 2020, but on the other hand I just have this feeling that being on the ballot 3 cycles in a row just comes off as a bit much. I think on the whole if I were the MIGOP I'd try to get someone different. I mean, there's gotta be more than one black Republican in the whole state, right?

[DS0816]

Definitely he would be favored:

(1) He nearly beaten the incumbent senator and did better then Trump did in 2020.

(2 )It is Biden midterm.

(3) MI is a purple state.

I think atlas user will still take him with a grain of salt, yet shocked by how he beaten the incumbent governor and blame the MI voter.  

Best response so far.

Adding to it:

2018 was a midterm on the watch of Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump. The Democrats won the overall gains. For U.S. Senate, John James shifted Michigan away from Democratic incumbent U.S. senator Debbie Stabenow by 14 points in his and the Republicans’ direction.

2020 was a presidential election in which Republican incumbent Donald Trump became unseated by Democratic challenger Joe Biden. Michigan flipped. John James shifted Michigan away from Democratic incumbent U.S. senator Gary Peters by about 13 points.

Stabenow and Peters underperformed the candidate at the top of ticket—with Stabenow at +6.50 and Democratic gubernatorial pickup winner Gretchen Whitmer at +9.56; Peters at +1.68 and Democratic presidential pickup winner Joe Biden, with his pickup of Michigan, at +2.78.

This suggests John James is personally and electorally very strong. The timing was more favorable for the Democrats. And, yet, he lowered the electoral fortunes of Stabenow and Peters (both of whom were overestimated).

2016, 2018, and 2020 were pickup years in some respect. 2016 was a Republican pickup of the presidency for Donald Trump. 2018 was a Democratic pickup of the U.S. House of Representatives. 2020 was a Democratic pickup of the presidency for Joe Biden. One state which reflected all three was Michigan. It was there for Trump. It met the average of pickups, nationally, for the 2018 U.S. House Democrats (+40 net gains in seats from 21 states with +2 from Michigan). It was there for Biden.

Since 2008, the Democrats have won 3 of 4 presidential-election cycles. Just three states were carried by each presidential-election winner: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. In 2016, Michigan’s popular-vote margin best reflected the national one for U.S. House: R+1.06 vs. R+1.08. In 2018, it came closest on the count once again: D+7.68 vs. D+8.56. Of the 2020 Democratic pickups, at the presidential level, Michigan once again was best: D+1.31 vs. D+2.78.

Whichever party benefits—with overall gains—in the midterm elections of 2022 is likely to see that reflected, to some extent, in Michigan.

From 1914 to 2018, a period of 104 years and 27 election cycles, the midterms were won with overall net gains by the White House opposition party in 24. If the midterm elections of 2022 continue with that pattern, the party which will benefit are the Republicans.

This doesn’t just affect U.S. House and U.S. Senate. It also applies to U.S. Governors. There are 36 states scheduled. From that number, 9 of them are Top 10 populous states. The one not on the schedule is North Carolina (which holds its gubernatorial elections with presidential elections).

Effective with the 2018 midterm elections, and with the one in 2020 North Carolina (a party hold from 2016), the Democrats hold the governorships in 6 of the nation’s Top 10 populous states: California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, North Carolina, and Michigan. If the 2022 midterm elections result in overall net gains for the Republicans, and this includes increasing their already-established majority of the nation’s governorships, does anyone think the 2022 Republicans would not flip any of the Top 10 states not in their column and still end up with a minority 4 of the nation’s Top 10? (Or maybe even less?) To win over a new majority—with an outcome of at least 6 of the Top 10—would more than likely include Michigan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer is not losing Kelly of KS would lose before Whitmer

[David Hume]

You know, I actually feel kind of bad for him, as he made the 2018 race with Stabenow much more competitive than it should have been, and in the 2020 race with Peters, he probably ran the better and more exciting campaign, and made the race the most competitive Senate Race in 2020, but he still lost, probably due to Biden carrying Peters over the finish line. However, I don't think he's the favorite against Whitmer at the moment, since she's the popular incumbent, but who knows?

He is still the best candidate GOP can find. If Trump actively campaign for him, he still has a good chance. He outperformed prediction by far twice and may do it for a third time.

[Gracile]

Democrats shouldn't be so quick to write James off after his respectable losses in 2018 and 2020 - outperforming expectations both times.

[SN2903]

He should really try to run for a Congressional seat to get a win under his belt.

Very reasonable take however I think he would have a very good chance of winning MI Gov race in 22. Better than 50 50. 22 is going to be a favorable GOP environment obviously as was stated yesterday. He is a very strong candidate.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I think you get three Ls in a row before permanently having the "perennial candidate" stink on you. Choose wisely, Mr James. I'd also prefer to see him win a House seat and get some political experience on the resume before going for another statewide race.

But he is almost certainly the best candidate the GOP can find right now, so...

[2016]

I think you get three Ls in a row before permanently having the "perennial candidate" stink on you. Choose wisely, Mr James. I'd also prefer to see him win a House seat and get some political experience on the resume before going for another statewide race.

But he is almost certainly the best candidate the GOP can find right now, so...

Governor Whitmers Approvals don't look all that stellar to be honest especially with the rise of new COVID Cases.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2022 isn't an R favored environment, it's likey a D 3.1 Environment which is neutral because that's how much the Ds won last time

[SN2903]

I think you get three Ls in a row before permanently having the "perennial candidate" stink on you. Choose wisely, Mr James. I'd also prefer to see him win a House seat and get some political experience on the resume before going for another statewide race.

But he is almost certainly the best candidate the GOP can find right now, so...

and GOP looks in a lot stronger position for the 22 Governor Race than they did 2 or 3 weeks ago since COVID cases have skyrocketed in Michigan even after things were shut down in the winter: restaurants, bars, movies.

[2016]

2022 isn't an R favored environment, it's likey a D 3.1 Environment which is neutral because that's how much the Ds won last time

Hilarious!!! 2022 will be a Republican Environment. At best it will be a neutral Environment for the Democrats but I doubt it.

Trying to "Pack The Courts", adding 4 new Senate Seats isn't going to help the Democrats Cause in 2022 especially with Independent Voters.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tilt D.

[pbrower2a]

2022 isn't an R favored environment, it's likely a D 3.1 Environment which is neutral because that's how much the Ds won last time

This is not normal for a midterm election, but the political stench of Donald Trump is still strong. At least in 2010 the Republican Party and its front groups did not praise the younger Bush Presidency. The GOP had abandoned Dubya as inspiration. 

Patterns hold until something breaks them.

The Democrats actually lost Senate seats in 2018 (too many vulnerable Democrats in the Senate because of their states) and net House seats in 2020. I find a D+3 environment unlikely, but I understand reasons for some to anticipate such.

1. Donald Trump is going to be a very bad memory for a very long time.
2. The GOP has yet to distance itself adequately from Trump.
3. Demographic change favors an increasingly-D electorate as new, younger voters are more D than the older R-leaning voters who leave the electorate in death and debility. 

On the other hand I see new patterns of voter suppression.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

He could win, although if he loses again his political future is over permanently.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer isn't losing but Kelly of KS might

[Chips]

LOL. MI's version of McSally?

Lean D anyways, BUT, Dems are well avised not too take Whitmer's reelection for granted. James came closer than expected last year and 2022 is very likely a less D-friendly cycle than 2020 was. Whether Trump's lack of presence on the ballot will help Dems in MI is another question that is about to be tested. As always, turnout will decide the outcome.

This. I believe it will be a very competitive race in MI next year.