Sabato's list of House seats likely to go Dem

[Galactic Overlord]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=DNW2006081001

From the article:

HOUSE: On the Fringe of Fifteen (Currently 232 R, 202 D, 1 I/D)
Probable D House pick-ups: Pennsylvania-06
R Open Seats Leaning D: Texas-22, Colorado-07, Iowa-01
R Open Seats that are Toss-Ups: Arizona-08, Illinois-06, Minnesota-06, New York-24, Ohio-18
Possible D House pick-ups: Arizona-05, Connecticut-02, Connecticut-04, Connecticut-05, Florida-22, Indiana-02, Indiana-08, Indian a-09, Kentucky-04, North Carolina-11, New Mexico-01, New York-20, Ohio-01, Ohio-15, Pennsylvania-08, Pennsylvania-10, Texas-23, Virginia-02, Washington-08
________________________________________

Interesting list. Here's where I agree (and disagree) with Mr. Sabato:

Probable D House pick-ups: Pennsylvania-06 

Agree. Kind of a "duh" listing anyway.

R Open Seats Leaning D: Texas-22, Colorado-07, Iowa-01

TX-22 will hinge on the difficulty of waging a write-in campaign for a candidate. I would still list CO-7 and IA-1 as tossups until more polling information comes in, as the Democrats had contenious primaries and the Republicans had smoother sailing.

R Open Seats that are Toss-Ups: Arizona-08, Illinois-06, Minnesota-06, New York-24, Ohio-18

I agree they are competitive, but toss-ups, I'd say nay except for AZ-08, as the primary may yield Randy Graf, a candidate whom the incumbent would find anathema and would never support.  Also, Sabato hasn't updated Bob Ney's withdrawl from OH-18, which takes a scandal-ridden incumbent out of the picture.

Possible D House pick-ups: Arizona-05, Connecticut-02, Connecticut-04, Connecticut-05, Florida-22, Indiana-02, Indiana-08, Indian a-09, Kentucky-04, North Carolina-11, New Mexico-01, New York-20, Ohio-01, Ohio-15, Pennsylvania-08, Pennsylvania-10, Texas-23, Virginia-02, Washington-08

Sabato should have listed CT-04, IN-08, IN-09, KY-04, NC-11, and NM-01 as tossups and put his old tossup list in this section, IMO.

Frankly, I think he's jumping the gun on some of these races, though all of them do bear watching.  If I had to make some calls, I would say the Republicans keep AZ-05, CT-05, FL-22, IL-06, IN-02, IN-09, MN-06, OH-01, OH-15, OH-18, PA-08, PA-10, TX-23, VA-02, and WA-08.   The others...we'll know that on election day.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MN-6 WOULD be Lean Republican if it wasn't for the fact that the GOP nominee is absolutely insane and quite possibly the most hated woman in the state.

[Mr. Morden]

This list has some heavy overlap with National Journal's rankings:

http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings/house/

Every Republican held seat in the top 20 of NJ's rankings is in Sabato's list, except for PA-7.  But, interestingly, NJ lists IA-3 as the most endangered Dem seat (#12 overall on its list), and Sabato doesn't mention that one.

[Sam Spade]

TX-23 could be on the list, depending on what candidates appear.  If anything, the only Dem chance of succeeding here is to bring the race to a December runoff.

IA-03 should definitely be on the list of any possible Republican pickups.

[Keystone Phil]

Interesting list. Here's where I agree (and disagree) with Mr. Sabato:

Probable D House pick-ups: Pennsylvania-06 

Agree. Kind of a "duh" listing anyway.

No, and it is definetley not a "duh" listing.

[Sam Spade]

Just for a little fun and comparison, here are my 40 (yes, 40) Dem possible pickups and 10 Rep possible pickups.  I do think this will end up being the number of contestable seats come November, but the seats themselves could well change (and probably will).  Some comments will be made, if need be.

GOP to Dem possibles
AZ-05
AZ-08 (open)
CA-11 (I am still wondering why the Dems refuse to spend money to try and take out an Abramoff-tainted incumbent in a marginal CD.  This one may not be on the list come November at this rate)
CO-04
CO-07 (open) (Perlmutter as nominee increases Dem chances)
CT-02
CT-04
CT-05
FL-09 (open)
FL-13 (open)
FL-22
IA-01 (open)
IL-06 (open)
IN-02
IN-08 (as Mr. Perennially Underfunded tries to win again)
IN-09 (rematch time!)
KY-04
MN-06 (open)
NC-11
NJ-07
NM-01
NV-02 (open)
NV-03
NY-20
NY-24 (open)
NY-25
NY-29
OH-01
OH-15
OH-18 (open) (we'll have to see how the replacement goes, Padgett is a strong candidate)
PA-06 (rematch time!)
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
TX-22 (open)
TX-23 (this may or may not be on the list depending on who eventually gets on the ballot)
VA-02
WA-08
WI-08 (open)
WY-AL

A few of the further down seats I would watch are the marginal CDs in MN (1, 2) and IL (10, 11) and both of the NH seats (regardless of polling right now).  When we get this far down, all I'm looking at are marginal seats and open ones, for the most part.

Dem to GOP possibles
GA-08
GA-12
IA-03
IL-08
LA-03
OH-06 (open)
SC-05
TX-17
VT-AL (open)
WV-01

Not really much else to pay attention to here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IN-08 (as Mr. Perennially Underfunded tries to win again)
IN-09 (rematch time!

I think these two will stand or fall together now.

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Isn't one strong GOP candidate going to be blocked by some sort of sore-losers rule?

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Amusingly the Republican candidate here has some ethics troubles of his own.

[Sam Spade]

IN-08 (as Mr. Perennially Underfunded tries to win again)
IN-09 (rematch time!

I think these two will stand or fall together now.

I actually would apply that to all three, frankly.  Indiana has a history of turning over Congressional delegations in one fell swoop, anywho, but only these three are really interesting this year.

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Isn't one strong GOP candidate going to be blocked by some sort of sore-losers rule?[/quote]

The Attorney General (R) ruled that the sore-loser law doesn't apply to her.  Of course, it'll be taken to the Ohio Supreme Court I'm sure (no higher), where we'll find out what the robes think.  I haven't actually read the statute in question, so my knowledge of the facts is kinda weak. 

If she's not on the ballot, anyway, some other GOP person will be (this isn't Texas) and the GOP bench in that area is decently strong.  They should be able to get a respectable candidate.

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Amusingly the Republican candidate here has some ethics troubles of his own.
[/quote]

Ya, I saw that.  Pretty stupid, though we'll see how it works in the actual campaign.  I really don't (and continue to not) understand why people lie about their education degrees/military service, etc., when that stuff is so easily researchable and disproven.  Makes no sense.