Who is the next Republican to win a majority of the popular vote?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Only one Republican Presidential candidate in the past 32 years has won a popular vote majority: Bush in 2004 with 50.7%. When does the next Republican nominee repeat this achievement? What would the map look like? And what policy and rhetoric would such a successful candidate run on?

[Del Tachi]

DeSantis wins a plurality in 2024, then gets reelected with a majority in 2028.  VP Nikki Haley or Elise Stefanik win a third-term for the GOP again with a national majority in 2032.

[TheReckoning]

DeSantis wins a plurality in 2024, then gets reelected with a majority in 2028.  VP Nikki Haley or Elise Stefanik win a third-term for the GOP again with a national majority in 2032.

You forget the part where Harmabe is appointed dictator for life.

[Xing]

Ron will obviously get over 65% of the vote (including a win in DC) if he runs.

[Skill and Chance]

This is interesting.  It's clear that most of the third party vote in this era has the Dems as their second choice, so it's a lot easier for a Republican to get a PV plurality than a PV majority.  I think Republicans are favored to win a PV plurality by 2028, and could realistically do it in 2024, but a majority could take much longer.  I expect a Republican president to win in 2024 without getting a PV majority, so I'll go with 2040 or so.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

DeSantis wins a plurality in 2024, then gets reelected with a majority in 2028.  VP Nikki Haley or Elise Stefanik win a third-term for the GOP again with a national majority in 2032.

I should have been clearer that I'm less interested which individual it is exactly, but more what kind of Republican candidate would be needed to win the popular vote.

I think a broadly successful and not-exceptionally polarising incumbent running for re-election would be the best way to do it. But again that would require DeSantis or whoever not governing as a polarising doctrinaire conservative as Trump did.

[TodayJunior]

Someone who currently doesn’t hold office with no connection to Trump. Perhaps a future governor of a blue-ish swing state (I.e. Michigan, Minnesota) who’s somehow seen as moderate enough to win over suburbia and thread the needle with high rural turnout.

The circumstances that make this happen are as follows:
1. A divided Democratic Party between neoliberals and progressives
2. A significant third party vote of 5% to chip away from the Dems
3. A significant feeling of party fatigue
4. A recession and foreign policy blunder
5. An unlikable Dem candidate or a massive failure of the Dem incumbent
6. The Republican must have no hint of scandal
7. The Republican must accept the results of the election regardless of the outcome

All 7 must happen or this hypothetical scenario is dead on arrival.

[Skill and Chance]

DeSantis wins a plurality in 2024, then gets reelected with a majority in 2028.  VP Nikki Haley or Elise Stefanik win a third-term for the GOP again with a national majority in 2032.

I should have been clearer that I'm less interested which individual it is exactly, but more what kind of Republican candidate would be needed to win the popular vote.

I think a broadly successful and not-exceptionally polarising incumbent running for re-election would be the best way to do it. But again that would require DeSantis or whoever not governing as a polarising doctrinaire conservative as Trump did.

DeSantis would be the most plausible type of candidate IMO, someone who can hold the Trump base and appeal to youngish libertarians at the same time.  Trump 2020 + Johnson 2016 = a PV majority.  I think he would need a Dem opponent who could be more convincingly portrayed as elitist than Biden.  You would either need meaningful GOP improvement over 2020 in the Southwest/Florida or giant landslides throughout the non-Chicago Midwest (I now think the former is more likely).  The map is probably something like this, give or take MN and NH.





The other possibility is a super moderate R who picks up more than enough Clinton->Biden voters to outweigh lower base turnout, but the likelihood of that is low.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is interesting.  It's clear that most of the third party vote in this era has the Dems as their second choice, so it's a lot easier for a Republican to get a PV plurality than a PV majority.  I think Republicans are favored to win a PV plurality by 2028, and could realistically do it in 2024, but a majority could take much longer.  I expect a Republican president to win in 2024 without getting a PV majority, so I'll go with 2040 or so.

How are they favored to win a PV plurality?  they are vastly outnumbered nationally and keep losing the popular vote by millions of votes over and over again.  And the demographics keep getting worse for them and they refuse to change their behavior. 

In the last Presidential election there were 5 states that gave Biden at least a 1 million vote margin.  No state gave Trump that kind of margin despite him getting every last cult member to the polls. 

Republicans can definitely win the White House in the next 8 years but it's highly unlikely they do so with a popular vote plurality. 

[EastwoodS]

This is interesting.  It's clear that most of the third party vote in this era has the Dems as their second choice, so it's a lot easier for a Republican to get a PV plurality than a PV majority.  I think Republicans are favored to win a PV plurality by 2028, and could realistically do it in 2024, but a majority could take much longer.  I expect a Republican president to win in 2024 without getting a PV majority, so I'll go with 2040 or so.

How are they favored to win a PV plurality?  they are vastly outnumbered nationally and keep losing the popular vote by millions of votes over and over again.  And the demographics keep getting worse for them and they refuse to change their behavior. 

In the last Presidential election there were 5 states that gave Biden at least a 1 million vote margin.  No state gave Trump that kind of margin despite him getting every last cult member to the polls. 

Republicans can definitely win the White House in the next 8 years but it's highly unlikely they do so with a popular vote plurality. 

It’s not 2012 anymore. This mindset is outdated.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is interesting.  It's clear that most of the third party vote in this era has the Dems as their second choice, so it's a lot easier for a Republican to get a PV plurality than a PV majority.  I think Republicans are favored to win a PV plurality by 2028, and could realistically do it in 2024, but a majority could take much longer.  I expect a Republican president to win in 2024 without getting a PV majority, so I'll go with 2040 or so.

How are they favored to win a PV plurality?  they are vastly outnumbered nationally and keep losing the popular vote by millions of votes over and over again.  And the demographics keep getting worse for them and they refuse to change their behavior. 

In the last Presidential election there were 5 states that gave Biden at least a 1 million vote margin.  No state gave Trump that kind of margin despite him getting every last cult member to the polls. 

Republicans can definitely win the White House in the next 8 years but it's highly unlikely they do so with a popular vote plurality. 

It’s not 2012 anymore. This mindset is outdated.

Prove it.

[Chips]

I'd guess the 2032 candidate maybe?