Barack Obama's career if he lost the 2008 nomination

[NewYorkExpress]

If Obama lost the nomination, Hillary almost certainly would have picked him as VP. She'd lost a lot of support amongst African-American voters and picking Obama would have helped restore that for the general election (compared to the IRL scenario, where Obama won most women voters, many African-American men could easily defect to McCain with Obama's defeat, even as African-American women stick with Clinton due to the historic nature of her candidacy.) After Hillary wins reelection in 2012 (I think she, like Obama defeats Romney in this scenario, possibly by an even bigger margin), Obama runs for President again in 2016, and faces Trump. It would be a tossup race, but Obama is the perfect candidate to take on Trump (compared to how Hillary did IRL), and thus he wins. With COVID, he loses in 2020, likely to Pence, or possibly Paul Ryan.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Obama lost the nomination, Hillary almost certainly would have picked him as VP. She'd lost a lot of support amongst African-American voters and picking Obama would have helped restore that for the general election (compared to the IRL scenario, where Obama won most women voters, many African-American men could easily defect to McCain with Obama's defeat, even as African-American women stick with Clinton due to the historic nature of her candidacy.) After Hillary wins reelection in 2012 (I think she, like Obama defeats Romney in this scenario, possibly by an even bigger margin), Obama runs for President again in 2016, and faces Trump. It would be a tossup race, but Obama is the perfect candidate to take on Trump (compared to how Hillary did IRL), and thus he wins. With COVID, he loses in 2020, likely to Pence, or possibly Paul Ryan.

Why wouldn't Obama get reelected in 2020? Sure, running for a 4th consecutive Dem term would be tricky, but COVID may actually have saved him from losing the election. Out of question he would have been far more competent in handling the crisis with a team of professionals. If he played his cards right, he would have won reelection. The GOP may actually be forced to nominate a more reasonable nominee in 2024 after losing with Trump in 2016 and Pence in 2020.

I think COVID would have killed off any incumbent's chances of winnning reelection, regardless of which party they belonged to.