Barack Obama's career if he lost the 2008 nomination

[President Johnson]

If Barack Obama narrowly missed to become the Democratic nominee in 2008 to Hillary Clinton, how do you see his political career moving forward? Coming this close as an African American freshman senator would still have been impressing, far from ending his political career. I don't think Hillary would have picked him as vice presidential nominee because he would have taken too much spotlight on him during the general election.

From what I know, Obama disliked being a senator, so I could see him not running for reelection in 2010 and instead run for governor of Illinois. He would have won the nomination and election handily and succeeded Blago in 2011 (remember that Blago wouldn't have been impeached without Obama vacating his senate seat). Since Illinois has no gubernatorial term limit, Blago may have had a desire to run again but if Obama entered, he would have been pushed out. Subsequently, I think it's fairly reasonable to assume he wins a second term in 2014 and then goes for the 2016 Democratic nomination after Hillary is term-limited and actually win the election by running a much better campaign than Hillary did in our world. Governor Obama very likely would have defeated Donald Trump in case latter is the Republican candidate. In this timeline, Republican backlash against Hillary is just similar to Obama IRL and Trump exploiting sexism here instead of racism.

Being more experienced as incoming president in 2017 (compared to 2009), Obama may have avoided some mistakes and wins reelection in 2020 for handling the pandemic quite effectively.

Thoughts?

[darklordoftech]

Between his speechmaking skills and how close he would get to winning the nomination, he would definitely run again in the future.

[Alben Barkley]

He could be president right now. Let's say Hillary wins two terms, somebody else is the Democratic nominee in 2016 and loses. Obama may have an opening in 2020 and wins. Or he runs in 2016 and wins, is re-elected in 2020.

[Agonized-Statism]

Assuming the 2008 primaries are still close, Obama would probably get a place in Clinton's cabinet. Something like Secretary of Labor, which he would be until running for president in 2016. Whether or not he wins depends on who the Republicans nominate and if he's able to keep up enthusiasm.

[Sir Mohamed]

Assuming the 2008 primaries are still close, Obama would probably get a place in Clinton's cabinet. Something like Secretary of Labor, which he would be until running for president in 2016. Whether or not he wins depends on who the Republicans nominate and if he's able to keep up enthusiasm.

That's reasonable, but AG would be more fitting and for Obama. Subsequently he'd step down in early 2015 to focus on his 2016 WH bid and as the OP already concluded defeated Mr. Trump in the GE with the 278 freiwall map + NC.

That said, I find the scenario of Obama retiring from the senate in 2010 and running 4 gov far from impossible. He'd be a far more experienced prez after taking office in 2017, but he'd (most likely) have less room for getting big legislation done since the GOP would at least control the House. Like HRC would have been for him in our TL, Obama as Clinton successor/45th POTUS would have been left to preserve HRC's legacy by governing through executive actions and vetoing GOP bills to dismantle her policies.

[Left Wing]

I honestly think that Obama would just run for re-election to the senate in 2010 to avoid a competitive primary with Pat Quinn. He’d still have a high national profile and would easily be the frontrunner for president in 2016. I imagine whoever Clinton picked for VP (Kaine, Vilsack, Richardson, etc) would not run in 2016 if Obama was plotting a bid as I would assume they would have the sense to know they couldn’t beat him.

[Sir Mohamed]

I honestly think that Obama would just run for re-election to the senate in 2010 to avoid a competitive primary with Pat Quinn. He’d still have a high national profile and would easily be the frontrunner for president in 2016. I imagine whoever Clinton picked for VP (Kaine, Vilsack, Richardson, etc) would not run in 2016 if Obama was plotting a bid as I would assume they would have the sense to know they couldn’t beat him.

Ugh, a gov-primary against Quinn wouldn't be competitive. Quinn wouldn't even be the incumbent because Blago was just removed from office as a result of Obama leaving the senate early. But even if Quinn is the incumbent gov here, it doesn't change much. He almost lost the (real) 2010 Dem primary against the State Comptroller. If he could only beat this dude by less than 1 pt (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Illinois_gubernatorial_election#Results), Obama would have won in a cakewalk.

[Agonized-Statism]

That's reasonable, but AG would be more fitting and for Obama.

Don't know how I forgot about the attorney general, whoops.

[Left Wing]

I honestly think that Obama would just run for re-election to the senate in 2010 to avoid a competitive primary with Pat Quinn. He’d still have a high national profile and would easily be the frontrunner for president in 2016. I imagine whoever Clinton picked for VP (Kaine, Vilsack, Richardson, etc) would not run in 2016 if Obama was plotting a bid as I would assume they would have the sense to know they couldn’t beat him.

Ugh, a gov-primary against Quinn wouldn't be competitive. Quinn wouldn't even be the incumbent because Blago was just removed from office as a result of Obama leaving the senate early. But even if Quinn is the incumbent gov here, it doesn't change much. He almost lost the (real) 2010 Dem primary against the State Comptroller. If he could only beat this dude by less than 1 pt (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Illinois_gubernatorial_election#Results), Obama would have won in a cakewalk.

It’s not so much that he would have lost but more that he wouldn’t want to make enemies in the Illinois political machine. It’s definitely possible he runs for governor or re/election to the senate though and his career trajectory would probably be the same either way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jesse Jackson Jr was looking to run for Prez, the reason why Rs didn't want Jr in Obamas seat, was Jr was the heir apparent to Obama for Prez

[Fuzzy Bear]

If Obama lost the 2008 nomination and Hillary became President, Obama would be where Ted Cruz is right now.  He'd have to stay in the Senate to be relevant, but the longer he stayed there, the more he'd be seen as a "politician".  He MIGHT have run in 2016, but there would have been Hillary's VP to consider.

Obama isn't as abrasive as Cruz, but he would likely not have been overly popular with his colleagues.  Cruz has mended SOME fences over time; Obama might have been able to do the same.  But Obama's appeal was as something new and shiny in 2008.  He'd have lost the luster, much as Cruz has.

[Don Vito Corleone]

I once had a thought of Obama running for Governor after losing in 2008 and getting the waft of the Illinois Machine on him to the point where his national presidential chances are considered done. I thought it was a nice twist on his career. Though it does raise the question of who runs for the Democrats in 2016 instead.

[dw93]

I once had a thought of Obama running for Governor after losing in 2008 and getting the waft of the Illinois Machine on him to the point where his national presidential chances are considered done. I thought it was a nice twist on his career. Though it does raise the question of who runs for the Democrats in 2016 instead.

Hillary's VP likely runs, depending on who it is.

[Skill and Chance]

He could be president right now. Let's say Hillary wins two terms, somebody else is the Democratic nominee in 2016 and loses. Obama may have an opening in 2020 and wins. Or he runs in 2016 and wins, is re-elected in 2020.

I think this is the most likely outcome assuming Obama isn't part of the Hillary Clinton administration.  Hillary's VP loses in 2016 and Obama wins in 2020. 

[NewYorkExpress]

If Obama lost the nomination, Hillary almost certainly would have picked him as VP. She'd lost a lot of support amongst African-American voters and picking Obama would have helped restore that for the general election (compared to the IRL scenario, where Obama won most women voters, many African-American men could easily defect to McCain with Obama's defeat, even as African-American women stick with Clinton due to the historic nature of her candidacy.) After Hillary wins reelection in 2012 (I think she, like Obama defeats Romney in this scenario, possibly by an even bigger margin), Obama runs for President again in 2016, and faces Trump. It would be a tossup race, but Obama is the perfect candidate to take on Trump (compared to how Hillary did IRL), and thus he wins. With COVID, he loses in 2020, likely to Pence, or possibly Paul Ryan.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Obama lost the nomination, Hillary almost certainly would have picked him as VP. She'd lost a lot of support amongst African-American voters and picking Obama would have helped restore that for the general election (compared to the IRL scenario, where Obama won most women voters, many African-American men could easily defect to McCain with Obama's defeat, even as African-American women stick with Clinton due to the historic nature of her candidacy.) After Hillary wins reelection in 2012 (I think she, like Obama defeats Romney in this scenario, possibly by an even bigger margin), Obama runs for President again in 2016, and faces Trump. It would be a tossup race, but Obama is the perfect candidate to take on Trump (compared to how Hillary did IRL), and thus he wins. With COVID, he loses in 2020, likely to Pence, or possibly Paul Ryan.

Why wouldn't Obama get reelected in 2020? Sure, running for a 4th consecutive Dem term would be tricky, but COVID may actually have saved him from losing the election. Out of question he would have been far more competent in handling the crisis with a team of professionals. If he played his cards right, he would have won reelection. The GOP may actually be forced to nominate a more reasonable nominee in 2024 after losing with Trump in 2016 and Pence in 2020.

[ShadowRocket]

I think he definitely would've been the 2016 nominee.  Maybe not quite to the same extent as with Hillary IRL, but I think there would've been a sense in the party that it was his turn and I have a hard time seeing who could challenge.

None of the likely candidates that Hillary would've picked for VP strike me as being very strong candidates in their own. Plus, most of them strike me as not running at all, with the possible of Evan Bayh. And he's not going to beat Barack lol.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Obama lost the nomination, Hillary almost certainly would have picked him as VP. She'd lost a lot of support amongst African-American voters and picking Obama would have helped restore that for the general election (compared to the IRL scenario, where Obama won most women voters, many African-American men could easily defect to McCain with Obama's defeat, even as African-American women stick with Clinton due to the historic nature of her candidacy.) After Hillary wins reelection in 2012 (I think she, like Obama defeats Romney in this scenario, possibly by an even bigger margin), Obama runs for President again in 2016, and faces Trump. It would be a tossup race, but Obama is the perfect candidate to take on Trump (compared to how Hillary did IRL), and thus he wins. With COVID, he loses in 2020, likely to Pence, or possibly Paul Ryan.

Why wouldn't Obama get reelected in 2020? Sure, running for a 4th consecutive Dem term would be tricky, but COVID may actually have saved him from losing the election. Out of question he would have been far more competent in handling the crisis with a team of professionals. If he played his cards right, he would have won reelection. The GOP may actually be forced to nominate a more reasonable nominee in 2024 after losing with Trump in 2016 and Pence in 2020.

I think COVID would have killed off any incumbent's chances of winnning reelection, regardless of which party they belonged to.

[All Along The Watchtower]

WASHINGTON -  US Senator from Illinois and former Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama was nominated to the Supreme Court today by President Hillary Clinton, who cited her former rival's experience as the first black president of the Harvard Law Review and as a senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School, where Mr. Obama taught constitutional law.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

If Obama lost the nomination, Hillary almost certainly would have picked him as VP. She'd lost a lot of support amongst African-American voters and picking Obama would have helped restore that for the general election (compared to the IRL scenario, where Obama won most women voters, many African-American men could easily defect to McCain with Obama's defeat, even as African-American women stick with Clinton due to the historic nature of her candidacy.) After Hillary wins reelection in 2012 (I think she, like Obama defeats Romney in this scenario, possibly by an even bigger margin), Obama runs for President again in 2016, and faces Trump. It would be a tossup race, but Obama is the perfect candidate to take on Trump (compared to how Hillary did IRL), and thus he wins. With COVID, he loses in 2020, likely to Pence, or possibly Paul Ryan.

Why wouldn't Obama get reelected in 2020? Sure, running for a 4th consecutive Dem term would be tricky, but COVID may actually have saved him from losing the election. Out of question he would have been far more competent in handling the crisis with a team of professionals. If he played his cards right, he would have won reelection. The GOP may actually be forced to nominate a more reasonable nominee in 2024 after losing with Trump in 2016 and Pence in 2020.

I think COVID would have killed off any incumbent's chances of winnning reelection, regardless of which party they belonged to.

On the contrary and seeing how Biden only won by about 43,000 strategically placed votes in the three closest states, I think that anyone doing a better job would’ve been re-elected. Heck, if Trump had put out another stimulus before the election, I think he would’ve been narrowly re-elected despite losing the popular vote again.

[brucejoel99]

For one thing, Hillary was not picking Obama to be her running-mate for the same reason that he didn't pick her to be his in real life: their primary had been so acrimonious & there was just so much bad blood by the end of it that there was no way either was gonna be the other's VP. (And, not to mention, all of the signs at the time indicated that she was more-or-less pretty dead-set on Bayh.) Similarly, there's nothing that indicates that she'd be interested in &/or intrigued by the idea of a "Team of Rivals" like Obama was in real life - remember, she was completely floored when Obama approached her about State, & had fully expected to just return to the Senate & continue her work there - so it's not like he'd be ending up as anything in what would've presumably been her Clintonworld-stacked Cabinet either. So, most likely, he'd do the same thing that she'd expected she'd be relegated to by her defeat in real life: return to the Senate & move forward from there.

Moreover, I just don't see him running for Governor of Illinois in 2010 either. Yes, it'd finally put some executive experience on his resume, but I doubt the lack thereof would've really been what the blame was cast upon had he failed to beat Hillary, & not only would settling for "just" the Illinois Governor's Mansion kinda feel like a bit of a downgrade after having - in this scenario - come so close to the White House, but doing so would potentially open himself up to getting bogged down by everything that Illinois politics entails, which just feels like too much of an unnecessary & potentially hindering risk to take if his focus still remains on the Oval Office. Besides, remaining in the Senate still easily affords him the national platform on federal policy that had already managed to get him so close to the White House to begin with, so the most simple thing for him to do would be to just get re-elected in 2010 (for which being the popular incumbent helps).

Presuming that everything else (e.g., Dems lose the House in 2010, Hillary beats Romney in 2012, Dems lose the Senate in 2014, Trump runs in 2016) otherwise mostly stays the same, the 2016 primaries are really only ever a contest between Obama & VP Bayh, & despite going up against the literal VP, the former never really loses his front-runner status, given his inherent advantages (the hitherto aforementioned "his turn" mentality that would likely be prevalent, his still-existent strong national platform that could arguably compete with an incumbent VP's, his celebrity-like charisma, the desire to elect the first Black President, etc.) & the lack of any constituency for Bayh, let alone anything even resembling a personality on his part. Obama picks Kaine - who was an Obama supporter from the start in real-life's 2008, & who was then 3rd on the VP shortlist behind Biden & Bayh - to be his running-mate, & his being Obama allows them to do what Hillary couldn't in real life: win the Democrats their 3rd-consecutive term in the White House. VP Bayh gets to run Obama's State Dept. as a consolation prize, similar to what Hillary was expected to do for Biden had she won in 2016, & despite having to run for re-election after 12 straight years of Democratic rule, actually managing COVID competently gets him the rally-'round-the-flag effect that pretty much every world leader except for Trump got in real life, enabling him to win again. At this moment, he'd be 104 days into his 2nd term, overseeing federal vaccine-distribution & managing the economic recovery as best as he can & as much as the still-Republican Congress allows him to (i.e., nothing as big as the ARP).