Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[Pilchard]

I'm going to de-lurk to start this thread as I haven't seen one yet, apologies if it's a duplicate.

Although most of the attention on 6 May will probably be on Scotland and Hartlepool, there'll also be an election for the newly renamed Senedd (also known as the Welsh Parliament, although it appears Senedd has stuck in most English language usage outside of those who continue to call it the Assembly). It'll be the first elections where 16-17 year olds and eligible foreign nationals can vote.

The 2016 result in terms of seats won was Labour 29, Plaid Cymru 12, Conservative 11, UKIP 7 and Lib Dems 1. Since then there's been a Labour-led government joined by the sole Lib Dem Kirsty Williams, and Dafydd Elis-Thomas who left Plaid to sit as an independent. Mark Drakeford replaced Carwyn Jones as First Minister at the end of 2018.

Other party changes since the last election included Neil McEvoy being kicked out of Plaid and forming a new party (eventually named Propel, after both Welsh National Party and Welsh Nation Party were rejected by the Electoral Commission). The UKIP group scattered in several different directions with Neil Hamilton now their only remaining MS. Mark Reckless joined the Conservative group in 2017, left in 2019 to start a Brexit Party group with three other ex-UKIP MSs, before announcing that they would campaign to abolish the Senedd (and for some reason replace it with a directly elected First Minister), prompting the other three to leave and form the 'Independent Alliance for Reform'. Reckless subsequently joined Abolish the Welsh Assembly, who now have two MSs.

As I've been writing this YouGov have released their latest ITV Wales/Cardiff Uni poll from 16-19 March, showing things may be closer than expected:

Constituency:
Labour 32%
Conservative: 30%
Plaid Cymru: 23%
Lib Dem: 5%
Reform UK: 3%
Green: 2%
Others: 5% (presumably including Abolish)

List:
Labour: 31%
Conservative: 28%
Plaid Cymru: 22%
Abolish: 7%
Lib Dem: 4%
Green: 3%
Others: 4% (presumably including Reform UK)

Despite the narrowing polls it's still likely that Labour will be the largest party and the main question is what flavour of Labour government will be formed. The Lib Dems' hopes will probably rest on trying to retain their sole constituency seat in Brecon and Radnorshire, although Kirsty Williams is stepping down. A coalition may be needed with Plaid who seem set for some modest gains but with no major breakthrough in sight. And although there have been a number of headlines recently about the gradual increase in support for independence, events of the past year have hardened opinions at the other end of the constitutional spectrum as well and Abolish could pick up a few list seats.

Anyway, I'll leave it to others to provide more meaningful insight.

[Pilchard]

There was a debate the other night on ITV Wales between Mark Drakeford for Labour, Andrew RT Davies for the Tories and Adam Price for Plaid Cymru. I'd say all involved can point to a solid enough performance, but no real surprises except perhaps for Andrew RT Davies's love for Colin the Caterpillar. There's a write-up with clips here, or if like me you have trouble sleeping at night, the full hour is here.

[Pilchard]

The final YouGov and ComRes polls out today have broadly similar numbers (usual polling caveats apply):

Constituency

YouGov - Labour 36%, Conservative 29%, Plaid 20%, Reform 4%, Lib Dem 3%, Abolish 2%, Green 2%, Other 3%
ComRes - Labour 36%, Conservative 28%, Plaid 18%, Lib Dem 6%, Abolish 3%, Reform 3%, Other 6%

Regional

YouGov - Labour 31%, Conservative 25%, Plaid 21%, Abolish 7%, Green 5%, Lib Dem 4%, Reform 2%, Other 5%
ComRes - Labour 32%, Conservative 25%, Plaid 19%, Abolish 6%, Green 5%, Lib Dem 5%, Reform 3%, Other 6%

So if true Labour appear to be holding up well at around 2016 levels of support - Mark Drakeford has been quietly effective at defending his record in my opinion. Plaid seem to be stalling and the Tories are benefiting most from the scattering of the UKIP vote.

There was some amusement here in Newport over the weekend as some hoax 'election leaflets' were allegedly delivered promoting the 'Welsh Nude and Proud Party' for a better, more naked Newport. (contains some nudity, but nothing below the belt...) Of course no such party is standing (or even exists as far as I know).

[Pilchard]

Lib Dems lose Brecon and Radnorshire to the Conservatives. Terrible results across the board for them, but I'm wondering if they've done just enough to sneak back in on the Mid Wales list.

Edit: looks like Abolish failed to get in on the North Wales list.

[Pilchard]

but I'm wondering if they've done just enough to sneak back in on the Mid Wales list.

This appears to have happened - the list seats fall 2 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Lib Dem, which means another Abolish failure on the list!

[Pilchard]

South Wales East list seats go Con x2, Plaid x2, and I can finally say we've got rid of both Neil Hamilton and Mark Reckless!

[Pilchard]

Last region to declare, South Wales Central, goes Con x2, Plaid x2.

Final result is Labour 30 (+1), Con 16 (+5), Plaid 13 (+1), Lib Dem 1 (=)