Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A word of warning: YG/IWA polls tend to be very, very volatile during the pre-campaign and early-to-middle campaign periods. Late campaign polling tends to be reasonable, but it is very much a case of  caveat emptor before that point. The general record (i.e. of all firms) of elections for what used to be called the Assembly is pretty poor, with a tendency of polling to exaggerate (sometimes massively) electoral movement. And o/c in 2003 they were just flat-out and embarrassingly wrong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well there's no reason to expect a poll done by one firm to conform exactly to polls done by another. One issue with Welsh elections of late - and a very irritating one - has been a lack of pollster diversity. A mixed polling environment is healthier.

I would also suggest that uniform swing to calculate the single member constituencies is not a very good idea, given the 'Wales County Council' aspect to these elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well the one was done after Andrew R.T. Davies's hilariously woeful debate performance so maybe that's a factor - no, it won't be, not enough people will have watched it. Though he will have looked bad on TV news clips?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Both Plaid and the Conservatives presently take a harder line on constitutional matters than they did in 2007. Co-operation between IWJ and Bourne was plausible, maybe even natural (even if it didn't happen in the end), but it's hard to imagine Price and Davies being the same room without them screaming at each other, let alone becoming partners.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Word is that there is flatly 'no hope' for Wood. But we shall see.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Plaid up in Arfon at the expense of Labour.

Labour had a strong candidate well known in Caernarfon and nearby villages last time who fought a very aggressive campaign. This time they ran a more typical paper candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

55/33 in the Rhondda, which is about what I'd guessed from the way it was being discussed earlier.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She was (is) absurdly personally popular in parts of that constituency.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In 2016 she was the party leader with all the publicity that brings (substantial leadership bounces have become common in Senedd/Assembly elections), there was discontent with the local council over various issues, and she was running against Leighton Andrews who, though initially a popular figure locally had become a massive lightening rod as the Jones administration used him as its general 'minister for unpopular decisions', a role that he carried out with a sharpness that alienated people.

[Filuwaúrdjan]