Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[Conservatopia]

This is anecdotal but from speaking to people in South Wales it seems like there is a huge amount of apathetic and undecided voters.  Pilchard would know better than me though.

I think this would be to the advantage of Abolish and Plaid and probably leads to more fluidity and volatality.

[Conservatopia]

Are Gwlad that right-wing indy party that had a little bit of sucess back in about 2009?

[Conservatopia]

Are Gwlad that right-wing indy party that had a little bit of sucess back in about 2009?

No, they're a new party, founded in 2018, originally called "Ein Gwlad", later "Gwlad Gwlad" and now just "Gwlad".

You're right.  However they are on the right which is unusual for a nationalist party.

[Conservatopia]

For what it's worth Opinium have a poll out.  I'll just give the seat predictions for speed.  Changes are from last election.

Labour: 29 (-)
Conservatives: 19 (+8)
Plaid: 10 (-2)
Lib Dem: 1 (-)
UKIP: 1 (-6)

Bizarrely Abolish were not included in the poll despite having a very goid chance of getting about 4 seats.

Furthermore this poll is unusual showing Labour very high and Plaid actually losing seats while most other polls have Plaid picking up about 4 seatsat the expense of Labour.

[Conservatopia]

I wouldn't put much stock in the exact figures in the seat projection, though I think the general picture is clear - Labour will remain first, the Tories second with possible constituency gains, no surge for Plaid, and the smaller parties scrapping for maybe one seat per region. Given the collapse of UKIP it stands to reason that Labour would hold up a bit better.

Sure - that was my point really.  It's a naff poll but broadly confirms to overall trend.

I think the result will be something like

Labour 26 (-3)
Conservatives 17 (+6)
Plaid 13 (+1)
Abolish 4 (+4)
Lib Dems 1 (-)
UKIP 0 (-7)

Which would make coalition maths rather interesting...

[Conservatopia]

Labour+Plaid seems most likely.  This coalition has happened before.  They could potentially bring in LD assuming LD actually get a seat.

There is also the tiny chance of Plaid propped up by Tories.  This nearly happened last time round (Plaid+Cons+UKIP).  I imagine Plaid would have to drop their demands for a referendum though.

[Conservatopia]

Prediction:

Labour 27
Conservatives 16
Plaid 13
Abolish 3
LolDems 1

Labour-Plaid formal coalition