Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[beesley]

Asking as an outsider: is there any real chance of the Conservatives and Plaid working together? Yeah they would never federally, but nobody but Labour has ever governed since devolution and that is always a potential motivator.

Given Labour's geographic advantage in the valleys they could probably still win the most constituency seats even if they lost the constituency vote, so yeah they will still be the first party. The first place party though is not always the most powerful.

I think this answers the question for now: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-56286626

[beesley]

If you took the poll as accurate, Labour would get 24 seats on a UNS. That of course would be a ludicrous way to project things with any degree of certainty, given that would have the Tories gaining Cardiff North but not some of the seats they hold at Westminster level.

(whilst the *Welsh* Tories are led by pretty much a nonentity)

Which is important, because then voters bypass Davies and view the Tory leader as Boris Johnson, for better or worse.

[beesley]

https://www.flintshire.gov.uk/en/PDFFiles/Elections-and-Electoral-Registration/Notice-of-elections-2021/Senedd-SOPN-and-NOP-Delyn-Constituency.pdf

Have a look at the address for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Gwlad (a Welsh separatist party) candidate

[beesley]

https://www.flintshire.gov.uk/en/PDFFiles/Elections-and-Electoral-Registration/Notice-of-elections-2021/Senedd-SOPN-and-NOP-Delyn-Constituency.pdf

Have a look at the address for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Candidate.

There is no Abolish candidate.

I think you are talking about the Gwlad candidate. They are a minor party which strongly supports independence.

What actually happened is I pasted the wrong URL, and it turns out I've found something more egregious! The original post intended to show an Abolish candidate from England, and not near the Welsh Border either...

[beesley]

I wouldn't put much stock in the exact figures in the seat projection, though I think the general picture is clear - Labour will remain first, the Tories second with possible constituency gains, no surge for Plaid, and the smaller parties scrapping for maybe one seat per region. Given the collapse of UKIP it stands to reason that Labour would hold up a bit better.

[beesley]

How much does the electoral system used in Wales favor Welsh Labour, if at all?

Obviously Labour would have won on the constituencies if there were no regional list last time - they won 27/40 of them which would probably mean they still would've won a majority were there more constituencies. The regional list and 'proportional element' only gave them two extra seats but gave far more to other parties to make the assembly more proportionally composed. This obviously meant that Labour narrowly missed out on a majority - that is the effective purpose of the system because Labour hadn't earned enough votes to earn it.

It doesn't favour or work against Labour specifically as opposed to other parties, but in practice it always has done because they are the largest party and would win any FPTP election.

[beesley]

How much does the electoral system used in Wales favor Welsh Labour, if at all?

Obviously Labour would have won on the constituencies if there were no regional list last time - they won 27/40 of them which would probably mean they still would've won a majority were there more constituencies. The regional list and 'proportional element' only gave them two extra seats but gave far more to other parties to make the assembly more proportionally composed.

It doesn't favour or work against Labour specifically as opposed to other parties, but in practice it always has done because they are the largest party and would win any FPTP election.

So it favors Labour the same way the Holyrood electoral system once favored Labour.

Well no, in practical terms it does not help Labour compared to FPTP (but more than pure list PR), but the Holyrood comparison is correct - they are the same system after all. Hope that makes sense.

[beesley]

Another personal prediction, again caveats covering myself in case it's completely wrong apply.

Labour: 27
Conservative: 18
Plaid: 12
Abolish: 2
LD: 1
None for Reform, Greens, UKIP or Propel

On both ballots I think Labour will hold up fairly well. Constituency wise I think they should hold most of their seats.

[beesley]

Hearing Labour very confident in Rhondda, confident in Clwyd South and think they have just eked out Vale of Glamorgan.

[beesley]

Con hold Montgomeryshire with 48%. Lib Dems drop to third - shockingly bad result.

[beesley]

Labour hold Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney with 61% - a decent result aided by UKIP tanking as expected.

[beesley]

BBC suggests that Abolish may not get a seat on the lists.

Great news.

[beesley]

I'm very pleased to see that Abolish have lost votes compared to last time. Propel and Gwlad cost Plaid a list seat in North Wales too - two good results for the few people with my ideology.

So, basically Drakeford’s popularity is a result of doing a good job with Covid as opposed to something really specific about him? As in it’s something we’ve seen around the world with incumbents that had a good response to Covid. Without sidetracking too much, I think that part of the thing with Starmer is that we haven’t seen him run a general election campaign.

I think Drakeford's name recognition, airtime, and his handling of the pandemic was a bigger asset than this, but he also is far less polarising than Adam Price and Andrew RT Davies.

[beesley]

Was Wood's defeat a result of Plaid moving hard independence in a way that does not really resonate in Rhondda?

Probably more to do with the fact that the Rhondda is a Labour area normally and all of the idiosyncratic results from last time seem to have reverted to the mean/with Labour slightly better than that. See also Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Llanelli. But I agree that Plaid's platform for this election wasn't the best fit.

[beesley]

No seats for Abolish is a very, very pleasing result.

[beesley]

Final results
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1391016024112340997

So based on these numbers, are we just gonna see a continuation of the Lib-Lab "coalition," such as it technically is one?

Probably not a coalition, especially given the fact the LD MS is different to last time, but I suspect there will be an unwritten agreement in effect with Labour turning to her for support. Worth noting that in 2016 the coalition only got them to 30 and Lord Elis Thomas joined the government later on in the term. I assume the Llywydd and Diprwy Llywydd will be Elin Jones and a new Labour and neither are allowed to participate in votes.

[beesley]

Would be interested in the highest/lowest constituency shares for the main parties here.

Labour: Highest was 61.5% in MT and Rhymney, lowest was 10.9% in Ceredigion
Conservative: Highest was 48.1% in Montgomeryshire, lowest was 6.4% in Rhondda (about 3x their vote share last time!)
Plaid: Highest was 63.3% in Arfon, lowest was 5.8% in Monmouth
LD: Highest was 27.8% in Brecon and Radnorshire, lowest was 0.9% in Rhondda (again an increase from last time!)