Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[Oryxslayer]

Asking as an outsider: is there any real chance of the Conservatives and Plaid working together? Yeah they would never nationallly, but nobody but Labour has ever governed since devolution and that is always a potential motivator.

Given Labour's geographic advantage in the valleys they could probably still win the most constituency seats even if they lost the constituency vote, so yeah they will still be the first party. The first place party though is not always the most powerful.

[Oryxslayer]

If true, would mean the Tories are doing still better - and Labour worse - than even at the 2019 GE. Since all of a single GB-wide poll this year has (minimally) shown this, that alone justifies a degree of scepticism. Plus aren't Drakeford's personal ratings holding up pretty well?

(whilst the *Welsh* Tories are led by pretty much a nonentity)

That very YG poll has Drakeford with strong positive approvals (whereas Johnson is comfortably underwater.) That doesn't really fit with the headline polling numbers, which is usually indicative of one or the other of those being wrong.

Can always like the Party but hate the guy, and vice versa of course. I'm fairly sure the UK learned this lesson in 2017, no?

[Oryxslayer]

An issue with the list system in Wales is that it's not strong enough to keep it 'proportionate'. Only 33% of it's seats are list compared to 43% in Scotland.

Yes, and Welsh Labour has a geographic advantage in the constituencies. Its more apparent nationally - the Conservatives could have hypothetically won the 2019 welsh popular vote but Labour still would have 19 seats at worst - where Labour safely wins all the valleys but not by enough to pack their voters into the region. Throw in the fact that Conservative voter movement is concentrated in the north, and PC strength in the west, and you got a secure political system. The limited number of leveling seats preserves the geographic advantage when compared to Scotland.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC Welsh results page for tomorrow: https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cqwn14k92zwt/welsh-parliament-election-2021

[Oryxslayer]

BBC Report: Labour are confident in Rhonda, Bridgend okay for Labour and high turnout, Vale of Glam Tories are less enthusiastic, Aberconwy Tories are cheerful.  Recount in Vale of Clwyd.

[Oryxslayer]

Conservatives Gain Vale of Clwyd by a squeeker. 10792 to 10426, with 2972 for Plaid.

[Oryxslayer]

Four declarations in the last hour.

Conservatives hold Aberconwy with a significantly increased majority.

Labour hold Delyn. Both Labour and the Conservatives gained from the UKIP and Lib-Dems vote. Conservatives net votes, but still a 14% majority.

Labour holds Wrexham. The big gainer on the topline. is Plaid from UKIP, with almost no change for the Tories and Labour.

Labour hold Caerphilly with a strong majority.

Labour are certainly en route to win reelection, given Wrexham and Delyn are Conservative nationally.

[Oryxslayer]

Plaid up in Arfon at the expense of Labour.

Conservatives stagnant in Preseli Pembrokeshire and both Labour and Plaid up. Same story in Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South.

Conservative swing in Clwyd South thanks to UKIP, but Labour also gains and holds the seat.

Labour increases their vote in Swansea East from UKIP.



Definitely looking like Labour will remain stagnant on the constituencies, losing the Vale of Clwyd and gaining Rhondda. Ceredigion and B&R offer potential opposition reorientations though.

[Oryxslayer]

Conservatives hold Clwyd West with a reduced majority from a Labour increase.

Conservatives way up in Alynn and Deeside, but Labour retains the lead similar to the rest of the NE corner.
 
Labour hold safe Islwyn.

Labour hold Gower and it wasn't even close. Tories marginally down and Labour up from.

Obvious PC hold in Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

Blaenau Gwent and Neath are overwhelmingly held by Labour.

More southern Valley seats, including Bridgend have reported good Labour numbers. Monmouth is a unsurprising Conservative hold.

[Oryxslayer]

BBC suggests that Abolish may not get a seat on the lists.

[Oryxslayer]

Ceredigion is a PC hold. Lib-Dems down 22%(!) benefiting all parties but mainly the PC's who now have a 40% majority. Further backsliding in the Celtic fringe, a similar result to the Cornwall and Shetlands numbers.

[Oryxslayer]

First list results:

South West Wales: 2 Con, 2 PC. +1 PC from UKIP.

North Wales: 2 Con, 1 Lab, 1 PC. +1 Con +1 Lab from UKIP.