Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How much does the electoral system used in Wales favor Welsh Labour, if at all?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How much does the electoral system used in Wales favor Welsh Labour, if at all?

Obviously Labour would have won on the constituencies if there were no regional list last time - they won 27/40 of them which would probably mean they still would've won a majority were there more constituencies. The regional list and 'proportional element' only gave them two extra seats but gave far more to other parties to make the assembly more proportionally composed.

It doesn't favour or work against Labour specifically as opposed to other parties, but in practice it always has done because they are the largest party and would win any FPTP election.

So it favors Labour the same way the Holyrood electoral system once favored Labour.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How much does the electoral system used in Wales favor Welsh Labour, if at all?

Obviously Labour would have won on the constituencies if there were no regional list last time - they won 27/40 of them which would probably mean they still would've won a majority were there more constituencies. The regional list and 'proportional element' only gave them two extra seats but gave far more to other parties to make the assembly more proportionally composed.

It doesn't favour or work against Labour specifically as opposed to other parties, but in practice it always has done because they are the largest party and would win any FPTP election.

So it favors Labour the same way the Holyrood electoral system once favored Labour.

Well no, in practical terms it does not help Labour compared to FPTP (but more than pure list PR), but the Holyrood comparison is correct - they are the same system after all. Hope that makes sense.

Thanks. It was helpful.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Personal prediction:
Labour: 29
Conservative: 16
Plaid: 13
Abolish: 1
LD: 1

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

South Wales East list seats go Con x2, Plaid x2, and I can finally say we've got rid of both Neil Hamilton and Mark Reckless!

Oh no!
Anyway...