Notionals 2005 confirmed

[Harry Hayfield]

Following confirmation of my numbers (taken from the similarity comparsions calculated by Martin Baxter), I am able to announce the starting point for Election 2009 are:

Con 213 (+15)
Lab 348 (-8)
Lib Dems 60 (-2)
Others 29 (-1)

Therefore, I am opening requests for new constituency starting bases based on the old constituency. For instance, if you were to say Conwy, I would reply:

Aberconwy: Lab 34% Con 26% Lib Dem 18% Plaid 17% Green 1% UKIP 1% Others 1%. Notional Labour win

[minionofmidas]

Dwyfor Meirionydd and Arfon please.

[Harry Hayfield]

Dwyfor Meirionydd and Arfon please.

Afron and Dwyfor, Meirionnydd are the replacements for the old Meirionydd Nant Conwy and Caernarfon constituencies and as such will get their first airing on Election Night in May 2007 (as the National Assembly Elections will be fought on the new constituencies).

Arfon: Lab 31% Plaid 31% Con 19% Lib Dem 15% Green 1% UKIP 2% Others 1%. Notional Labour Win (with a majority of 95)

Dwyfor, Meirionydd: Plaid 49% Lab 23% Con 15% Lib Dem 11% UKIP 2%. Notional Plaid win

[minionofmidas]

Thought so. Plaid's the strongest party across all three districts (unless turnout varies widely). Add in that the most rural one, Dwyfor Meironydd, actually has the highest population, and the area's new districts are basically an anti-Plaid gerrymander.

[Rural Radical]

Dwyfor Meirionydd and Arfon please.

Afron and Dwyfor, Meirionnydd are the replacements for the old Meirionydd Nant Conwy and Caernarfon constituencies and as such will get their first airing on Election Night in May 2007 (as the National Assembly Elections will be fought on the new constituencies).

Arfon: Lab 31% Plaid 31% Con 19% Lib Dem 15% Green 1% UKIP 2% Others 1%. Notional Labour Win (with a majority of 95)

I think it will be a bigger Labour win than this.
Dwyfor, Meirionydd: Plaid 49% Lab 23% Con 15% Lib Dem 11% UKIP 2%. Notional Plaid win

[Filuwaúrdjan]

and the area's new districts are basically an anti-Plaid gerrymander.

No more so than the current constituencies are a pro-Plaid gerrymander (according to some people a literal one).
Merionnydd has very little in common with the affluent (for rural Wales) Conwy Valley, and transport linkes between the two areas are pretty much non-existent (and in the winter you can often delete "pretty much" from that). The idea that the Ffestiniog area has anything in common with Betwys-y-coed is just daft.
I can't say I like the idea of linking the Lleyn Peninsula with Merionnydd much, but it is much easier to justify than linking Merionnydd with the Conwy Valley (the links between Ffestiniog and the coastal towns up from Barmouth with the Lleyn are far stronger than with the Conwy Valley; and in this case at least there's fairly good transport links between the two areas.
Further north, the links between Bangor and Bethesda with Caernarfon are far stronger than their links with Llandudno.
O/c Welsh constituency boundaries are frequently horrible; the county/post74county/unitaryauthority lines are far, far too restrictive, bearing in mind population figures.

As for the Arfon notional figures, I suspect they underestimate Labour somewhat; while there certainly is a Plaid vote in the Bangor-Bethesda area, it's smaller than the Labour vote in the area around Caernarfon (o/c voting patterns in this part of Wales are not quite what most people suspect. I will happily make maps of the 2004 elections there if anyone wants. Sadly only Plaid ran a lot of candidates, but the general patterns are interesting anyway).

[minionofmidas]

and the area's new districts are basically an anti-Plaid gerrymander.

No more so than the current constituencies are a pro-Plaid gerrymander

Didn't say that, didn't say that at all...

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Well... there's a toy train link...

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Quite possibly, although that makes the current map worse rather than better - if the notionals were correct, the seat were a complete tossup.

The new Aberconwy seat was of course pretty much forced on the commission by the "notional counties" passed by parliament... but they could have balanced the population between Arfon and Dwyfor (Dwyfor? Why not Meirionydd & Lleyn?) better - there's really no reason why Arfon and Aberconwy should be the two smallest electorates south of Skye, and quite a bit smaller than their more remote neighbor.
Which, of course, would have meant moving part of the Lleyn into Arfon... I don't know quite enough about the area to be 100% certain, but I'm pretty sure that would be enough to turn it into a notional PC seat again.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well... there's a toy train link...

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Dwyfor is what the local council call the area. It was also a name of a constituency in the late 19th/early 20th century (as was Arfon).
 

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Only two wards you could add without the map looking very ugly; and the combined population of the two is under 2,000 IIRC.

[Harry Hayfield]

Indeed, for Arfon it's a reappearance on the electoral map for the first time since 1910!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indeed, for Arfon it's a reappearance on the electoral map for the first time since 1910!

Boundaries are different though; the old Arfon stretched out to the eastern bank of the Conwy and didn't include Caernarfon or Bangor, which were in David Lloyd George's Caernarvon Boroughs.
IIRC Arfon and Dwyfor were rock-solid Liberal seats, while Boroughs was a swing constituency until Lloyd George took it.

[minionofmidas]

Indeed, for Arfon it's a reappearance on the electoral map for the first time since 1910!

Boundaries are different though; the old Arfon stretched out to the eastern bank of the Conwy and didn't include Caernarfon or Bangor, which were in David Lloyd George's Caernarvon Boroughs.
IIRC Arfon and Dwyfor were rock-solid Liberal seats, while Boroughs was a swing constituency until Lloyd George took it.

I was aware of the former Arfon (created when Caernarffonshire went from two to three), but I seem to recall the third seat was called Eifion.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Indeed, for Arfon it's a reappearance on the electoral map for the first time since 1910!

Boundaries are different though; the old Arfon stretched out to the eastern bank of the Conwy and didn't include Caernarfon or Bangor, which were in David Lloyd George's Caernarvon Boroughs.
IIRC Arfon and Dwyfor were rock-solid Liberal seats, while Boroughs was a swing constituency until Lloyd George took it.

I was aware of the former Arfon (created when Caernarffonshire went from two to three), but I seem to recall the third seat was called Eifion.

Yes, I think it was actually. Not sure where they get Dwyfor from then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Aha! Dwyfor was the name of the district council covering the Lleyn from the '70's until Wales went all unitary. Dwyfor itself is a river near Criccieth; Lloyd George is buried near it.

[minionofmidas]

Merionnydd has very little in common with the affluent (for rural Wales) Conwy Valley, and transport linkes between the two areas are pretty much non-existent (and in the winter you can often delete "pretty much" from that). The idea that the Ffestiniog area has anything in common with Betwys-y-coed is just daft.

Come to think of that... while Betws is a tourist town o/c, the country around it is sparsely populated, mostly welsh speaking, and ex slate quarrying. (And very pretty.) I'm not sure where the boundaries went exactly though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Come to think of that... while Betws is a tourist town o/c, the country around it is sparsely populated, mostly welsh speaking, and ex slate quarrying. (And very pretty.) I'm not sure where the boundaries went exactly though...

The main settlement in the part of the Conwy Valley in the current seat is Llanrwst, but it actually extends further north than that:



The old slate mining (what's left of the industry these days is quarrying, but there are some very deep mines in places) area is, largely, west of Betwys. Biggest slate centres were the areas around Bethesda and Blaenau Ffestiniog.

[minionofmidas]

The old slate mining (what's left of the industry these days is quarrying, but there are some very deep mines in places) area is, largely, west of Betwys.

Yeah, that's basically the area I've been to there.

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I know that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, that's basically the area I've been to there.

One side of my family came from up there.

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Thought you would

IIRC they are now the only areas in NW Wales with working slate quarries that aren't small scale operations.

Just thinking along those lines, they could always try drawing a constituency that included all the old slate areas.

[afleitch]

A few months back, I played about with redrawing Wales' constituencies based on English and now Scottish quotas. This is unlikely and unjustified based on the current limited authority of the Welsh Assembly. Mid Wales becomes a shambles, in the same way southern Scotland has become. The valleys are 'do-able' but long standing links are lost. Bigger isn't always better

[Harry Hayfield]

Come to think of that... while Betws is a tourist town o/c, the country around it is sparsely populated, mostly welsh speaking, and ex slate quarrying. (And very pretty.) I'm not sure where the boundaries went exactly though...

The main settlement in the part of the Conwy Valley in the current seat is Llanrwst, but it actually extends further north than that:



The old slate mining (what's left of the industry these days is quarrying, but there are some very deep mines in places) area is, largely, west of Betwys. Biggest slate centres were the areas around Bethesda and Blaenau Ffestiniog.

As a point of note, please remember that Machynlleth is in Montgomeryshire constituency, not Dwyfor

[minionofmidas]

The map sort of makes it look as if part of the town was in Merioneth, doesn't it?

[Rural Radical]

The map sort of makes it look as if part of the town was in Merioneth, doesn't it?

It is literally on the border.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It certainly feels nothing like the rest of Montgomery; by the time you get to Welshpool, the accents are distinctly Shropshire.

[Serenity Now]

Wait, are these just the Welsh notionals, or the English ones too?

[Harry Hayfield]

I have notionals for England and Wales, yes, but at the moment we are discussing Arfon and Dwyfor constituencies.

[Rural Radical]

It certainly feels nothing like the rest of Montgomery; by the time you get to Welshpool, the accents are distinctly Shropshire.

Yes they are. Similar to Oswestry.

Can we look at Clwyd South (I wish they would drop the old county names) and call it Llangollen.