Will Islamism cease to be a threat?

[omar04]

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.

[omar04]

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.

You mean the same Syrian Jihadists eating each other alive in an increasingly decreasing Idlib while all their fighters sign up as mercs elsewhere. Yeah, that’s truly an evolution to the end.

Fair point. I mean more their "professionalization" as Turkey sponsors them, forming the Syrian Salvation Government, a proto state of sorts and of course the Syrian National Army which is an effective Turkish proxy military force. The conflict seems currently mostly frozen as there isn't any prospect of a future offensive.

[omar04]

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.

You mean the same Syrian Jihadists eating each other alive in an increasingly decreasing Idlib while all their fighters sign up as mercs elsewhere. Yeah, that’s truly an evolution to the end.

The conflict is likely only frozen until there's some kind of major crisis in Turkey, when that happen the Syrian regime will likely run Idlib over leaving only the Turkish occupied territories and Golan outside the regime's control.

Fair point. I mean more their "professionalization" as Turkey sponsors them, forming the Syrian Salvation Government, a proto state of sorts and of course the Syrian National Army which is an effective Turkish proxy military force. The conflict seems currently mostly frozen as there isn't any prospect of a future offensive.

Turkey isn't going to let Assad liberate the rest of Idlib, hence their multiple observation points, direct supply to the rebels, and heavy air support for them in the last offensive. It's unlikely Assad will be allowed to launch an offensive without Russian approval which in turn is not likely either, at the same time the only rebel gains we've seen were in the Artaskh conflict. The conflict is effectively frozen and clashes along a de facto border now.

[omar04]

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.

You mean the same Syrian Jihadists eating each other alive in an increasingly decreasing Idlib while all their fighters sign up as mercs elsewhere. Yeah, that’s truly an evolution to the end.

The conflict is likely only frozen until there's some kind of major crisis in Turkey, when that happen the Syrian regime will likely run Idlib over leaving only the Turkish occupied territories and Golan outside the regime's control.

Fair point. I mean more their "professionalization" as Turkey sponsors them, forming the Syrian Salvation Government, a proto state of sorts and of course the Syrian National Army which is an effective Turkish proxy military force. The conflict seems currently mostly frozen as there isn't any prospect of a future offensive.

Turkey isn't going to let Assad liberate the rest of Idlib, hence their multiple observation points, direct supply to the rebels, and heavy air support for them in the last offensive. It's unlikely Assad will be allowed to launch an offensive without Russian approval which in turn is not likely either, at the same time the only rebel gains we've seen were in the Artaskh conflict. The conflict is effectively frozen and clashes along a de facto border now.

I think you overestimate the stability of Turkey.

So you presume that Turkey will collapse in on itself? Doubtful. There are no serious threats to the Turkish state-certainly nothing that would destroy it's power projection into Syria. Erdogan is in power for the foreseeable future. Turkey's foreign involvement is only growing and their consensus with Russia will keep the war frozen along current lines.