Will Islamism cease to be a threat?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:45:19 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  International General Discussion (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Will Islamism cease to be a threat?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Will Islamism cease to be a threat?  (Read 3171 times)
Samof94
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,312
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 22, 2021, 07:39:31 AM »

Will Islamism ever stop being a threat??? I’m not talking about Islam, I am talking mostly about Salafi Jihadism, an ideology that is obviously genocidal and created refugees in the millions.
Logged
StateBoiler
fe234
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,890


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2021, 08:16:23 AM »

Threats don't disappear unless you go out and commit genocide, they just evolve into something new.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,597
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2021, 10:22:56 AM »

Going back to the foundation of the Muslim faith, what we now know as "Islamism" has had a number of peaks and troughs. It may indeed turn out that the present wave hit its maximum a few years ago?
Logged
If my soul was made of stone
discovolante
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,261
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.13, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2021, 10:35:33 AM »

The source of the radicalization into such ideologies is the lengthy tradition of Western powers meddling in the affairs of the Islamic world, which doesn't seem likely to change even if all of the oil were to disappear overnight due to the moralistic tide of neoconservatism.
Logged
PSOL
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,981


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2021, 11:59:05 AM »

The loss of disposable income from falling oil prices along with ISIS basically wrecking the movement worldwide has kind of dampened things. The donors in the gulf have been herded to fear Iran as an imminent threat as well, coinciding with rising state v state competition in MENA geopolitics.

It’s for all intentions dead.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,577
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2021, 01:29:41 PM »
« Edited: March 22, 2021, 03:19:55 PM by Crumpets »

It will continue to diversify with each particular strand becoming less and less of a threat as the ideology continues to split and many will become totally compatible with the rest of the world's ways of life.
Logged
omar04
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 574


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2021, 01:06:50 AM »

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.
Logged
PSOL
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,981


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2021, 01:14:28 AM »

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.
You mean the same Syrian Jihadists eating each other alive in an increasingly decreasing Idlib while all their fighters sign up as mercs elsewhere. Yeah, that’s truly an evolution to the end.
Logged
Blue3
Starwatcher
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,035
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2021, 01:29:56 AM »

Al Qaeda faded some years ago. So now has ISIS. Neither are completely gone, they could still strike us, but they are much diminished.

We need to call out actual organizations. I intensely dislike the term Islamism (or even Jihadism)... too many Islamophobic connotations. Just call it Islamic terrorism, or just religious terrorism, or even just terrorism or extremist violence.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2021, 07:57:39 AM »

Islamism will remain an important political force in the Islamic World for the foreseeable future and to argue otherwise is to make the same basically delusional error that Edward Said did in his debate with Bernard Lewis.
Logged
Lord Halifax
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,304
Papua New Guinea


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2021, 08:18:30 AM »


We need to call out actual organizations. I intensely dislike the term Islamism (or even Jihadism)... too many Islamophobic connotations. Just call it Islamic terrorism, or just religious terrorism, or even just terrorism or extremist violence.

Islamism is an ideology, not a form of terrorism.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,597
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2021, 10:21:58 AM »

Islamism will remain an important political force in the Islamic World for the foreseeable future and to argue otherwise is to make the same basically delusional error that Edward Said did in his debate with Bernard Lewis.

Yes, but that is quite compatible with its also having peaked for the time being.
Logged
omar04
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 574


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 23, 2021, 11:00:18 AM »

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.
You mean the same Syrian Jihadists eating each other alive in an increasingly decreasing Idlib while all their fighters sign up as mercs elsewhere. Yeah, that’s truly an evolution to the end.

Fair point. I mean more their "professionalization" as Turkey sponsors them, forming the Syrian Salvation Government, a proto state of sorts and of course the Syrian National Army which is an effective Turkish proxy military force. The conflict seems currently mostly frozen as there isn't any prospect of a future offensive.

Logged
ingemann
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,226


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2021, 11:28:38 AM »

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.
You mean the same Syrian Jihadists eating each other alive in an increasingly decreasing Idlib while all their fighters sign up as mercs elsewhere. Yeah, that’s truly an evolution to the end.

The conflict is likely only frozen until there's some kind of major crisis in Turkey, when that happen the Syrian regime will likely run Idlib over leaving only the Turkish occupied territories and Golan outside the regime's control.

Fair point. I mean more their "professionalization" as Turkey sponsors them, forming the Syrian Salvation Government, a proto state of sorts and of course the Syrian National Army which is an effective Turkish proxy military force. The conflict seems currently mostly frozen as there isn't any prospect of a future offensive.


Logged
omar04
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 574


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2021, 11:51:20 AM »

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.
You mean the same Syrian Jihadists eating each other alive in an increasingly decreasing Idlib while all their fighters sign up as mercs elsewhere. Yeah, that’s truly an evolution to the end.

The conflict is likely only frozen until there's some kind of major crisis in Turkey, when that happen the Syrian regime will likely run Idlib over leaving only the Turkish occupied territories and Golan outside the regime's control.

Fair point. I mean more their "professionalization" as Turkey sponsors them, forming the Syrian Salvation Government, a proto state of sorts and of course the Syrian National Army which is an effective Turkish proxy military force. The conflict seems currently mostly frozen as there isn't any prospect of a future offensive.



Turkey isn't going to let Assad liberate the rest of Idlib, hence their multiple observation points, direct supply to the rebels, and heavy air support for them in the last offensive. It's unlikely Assad will be allowed to launch an offensive without Russian approval which in turn is not likely either, at the same time the only rebel gains we've seen were in the Artaskh conflict. The conflict is effectively frozen and clashes along a de facto border now.
Logged
ingemann
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,226


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 23, 2021, 11:53:02 AM »

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.
You mean the same Syrian Jihadists eating each other alive in an increasingly decreasing Idlib while all their fighters sign up as mercs elsewhere. Yeah, that’s truly an evolution to the end.

The conflict is likely only frozen until there's some kind of major crisis in Turkey, when that happen the Syrian regime will likely run Idlib over leaving only the Turkish occupied territories and Golan outside the regime's control.

Fair point. I mean more their "professionalization" as Turkey sponsors them, forming the Syrian Salvation Government, a proto state of sorts and of course the Syrian National Army which is an effective Turkish proxy military force. The conflict seems currently mostly frozen as there isn't any prospect of a future offensive.



Turkey isn't going to let Assad liberate the rest of Idlib, hence their multiple observation points, direct supply to the rebels, and heavy air support for them in the last offensive. It's unlikely Assad will be allowed to launch an offensive without Russian approval which in turn is not likely either, at the same time the only rebel gains we've seen were in the Artaskh conflict. The conflict is effectively frozen and clashes along a de facto border now.

I think you overestimate the stability of Turkey.
Logged
omar04
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 574


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 23, 2021, 01:52:14 PM »

No, Islamism will keep evolving. Just look at the Syrian jihadists this past decade and the jihadist movement since the Soviet-Afghan War.
You mean the same Syrian Jihadists eating each other alive in an increasingly decreasing Idlib while all their fighters sign up as mercs elsewhere. Yeah, that’s truly an evolution to the end.

The conflict is likely only frozen until there's some kind of major crisis in Turkey, when that happen the Syrian regime will likely run Idlib over leaving only the Turkish occupied territories and Golan outside the regime's control.

Fair point. I mean more their "professionalization" as Turkey sponsors them, forming the Syrian Salvation Government, a proto state of sorts and of course the Syrian National Army which is an effective Turkish proxy military force. The conflict seems currently mostly frozen as there isn't any prospect of a future offensive.



Turkey isn't going to let Assad liberate the rest of Idlib, hence their multiple observation points, direct supply to the rebels, and heavy air support for them in the last offensive. It's unlikely Assad will be allowed to launch an offensive without Russian approval which in turn is not likely either, at the same time the only rebel gains we've seen were in the Artaskh conflict. The conflict is effectively frozen and clashes along a de facto border now.

I think you overestimate the stability of Turkey.

So you presume that Turkey will collapse in on itself? Doubtful. There are no serious threats to the Turkish state-certainly nothing that would destroy it's power projection into Syria. Erdogan is in power for the foreseeable future. Turkey's foreign involvement is only growing and their consensus with Russia will keep the war frozen along current lines.
Logged
PSOL
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,981


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 23, 2021, 04:30:56 PM »

Outside of the Salafi Jihadists, where else are Islamists a cause for concern? They are gone in Egypt after the unrest there and on the sidelines to the more secular-oriented opposition. They failed at being on top in Tunisia. Pakistan under Imran Khan aren’t a big fan anymore due to security concerns. Meanwhile more people are becoming secular across what once was the Islamic world. Only in Mozambique now with Wahhabist warlords and in Indonesia are they getting power, and the future there is volatile

On the Shia side, the current popular resistance within Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran. The former legalized Homosexuality with Hezbollah in government ffs
Logged
KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸
KoopaDaQuick
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,299
Anguilla


Political Matrix
E: -8.50, S: -5.74


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 23, 2021, 11:27:06 PM »

"Islamism"

yeah this thread totally doesn't have an agenda
Logged
John Dule
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,319
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.57, S: -7.50

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 24, 2021, 03:10:54 AM »

"Islamism"

yeah this thread totally doesn't have an agenda

Are you implying that organized religion isn't a threat to liberal values?
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,597
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: March 24, 2021, 08:37:41 AM »

"Islamism"

yeah this thread totally doesn't have an agenda

Sorry?

It is a perfectly accepted and legitimate term.
Logged
KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸
KoopaDaQuick
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,299
Anguilla


Political Matrix
E: -8.50, S: -5.74


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: March 24, 2021, 09:34:45 AM »

"Islamism"

yeah this thread totally doesn't have an agenda

Are you implying that organized religion isn't a threat to liberal values?

Yeah. And?
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,454
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: March 24, 2021, 09:44:23 AM »

I don't see that within the next half century, tbh. The overall threat level may decline to a degree. That's actually realistic and can be archived through a number of political decisions related to both foreign and domestic policy (speaking of Western countries in general).
Logged
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2021, 05:43:02 PM »

"Islamism" isn't really a single thing. In the Islamic world you've got your caliphate restorationists, but also those whose Islamism has more in common with Christian democracy than with ISIS, plus a much broader mass of voters and parties who may have generally politically conservative Islamic mores but who also have other material concerns that will affect their political affiliations.

And then you've got Islamist identities in western countries, which take different forms based on the political context they're reacting to it in that country.

There's enough variation there that it's possible for some of them to be in structural/cyclical decline whilst others are resilient or growing forces.
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,509
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2021, 09:52:11 PM »

"Islamism" isn't really a single thing. In the Islamic world you've got your caliphate restorationists, but also those whose Islamism has more in common with Christian democracy than with ISIS, plus a much broader mass of voters and parties who may have generally politically conservative Islamic mores but who also have other material concerns that will affect their political affiliations.

And then you've got Islamist identities in western countries, which take different forms based on the political context they're reacting to it in that country.

There's enough variation there that it's possible for some of them to be in structural/cyclical decline whilst others are resilient or growing forces.

The OP was referring primarily to Salafi jihadists that we are all familiar with from the 1990s and 2000s:





And to answer the OP, not anytime soon, if this article from last summer is of any indication:

Report: Taliban allowing Al Qaeda training camps and providing support, despite U.S. agreement to cut all ties
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 12 queries.