Pennsylvania 2010

[© tweed]

Could be a very interesting race with some high-profilers in the running.  Assuming Specter retires... which isn't a given but for the hell of it...

Would Santorum make a comeback off a 2006 loss?  Toomey show his head again?

And what about the Democrats?  Rendell?  Schwartz?  Hoeffel?  (And there has to be some prominent non-Philly candidate out there too)

Thoughts?

[Kevin]

How about Swann, Voters will have already known him from his 2006 run.

[nini2287]

How about Swann, Voter will have already known him from his 2006 run.

If he gets crushed in 2006, no way.

My guess is Schwartz vs. Hart.   I don't think Rendell will run (he might be focusing on a 2012 Presidential run if the Democrats lose).  However, should Casey run for governor (if he defeats Santorum), Rendell/Casey would have the power to appoint another Democratic Senator-either to clear the primary field or to give it to Hafer.

[Kevin]

How about Swann, Voter will have already known him from his 2006 run.

If he gets crushed in 2006, no way.

My guess is Schwartz vs. Hart.   I don't think Rendell will run (he might be focusing on a 2012 Presidential run if the Democrats lose).  However, should Casey run for governor (if he defeats Santorum), Rendell/Casey would have the power to appoint another Democratic Senator-either to clear the primary field or to give it to Hafer.

What if Swann makes it close for Rendell but still doesn't win?

[nini2287]

How about Swann, Voter will have already known him from his 2006 run.

If he gets crushed in 2006, no way.

My guess is Schwartz vs. Hart.   I don't think Rendell will run (he might be focusing on a 2012 Presidential run if the Democrats lose).  However, should Casey run for governor (if he defeats Santorum), Rendell/Casey would have the power to appoint another Democratic Senator-either to clear the primary field or to give it to Hafer.

What if Swann makes it close for Rendell but still doesn't win?

It would be possible, but to do that he's going to need to run a better campaign.  (I'll still probably vote for him in 2006 FWIW).  If he does lose in a close race, he could run but he'll have to stay relevant for 4 years which may be hard since he's never held elected office.

[Keystone Phil]

Specter retiring isn't guarenteed but it is very likely. If he ran for re-election, I think he'd lose anyway. Look for a Santorum comeback. Otherwise, Toomey runs again. If Toomey decides against it, look out for Hart.

As for the Dems, Rendell in the Senate? No. Schwartz is already running for the Senate anyway. Hoeffel may take a shot at it but fail miserably in the primary.

[nini2287]

Phil, what do you think about the possibility of a Santorum governor run in 2010?  I'd actually be open to voting for him for governor (unless it looked like he were using the position for a Presidential run).

[Adlai Stevenson]

I thought most people had heard Casey wanted to run for Governor in 2010.

[socaldem]

Isn't Dan Onorato expected to run for Gov or some other statewide office in 2010?

[nini2287]

Isn't Dan Onorato expected to run for Gov or some other statewide office in 2010?

There's a good chance he will.  However, if 2 of Schwartz/Casey/Hoeffel/Rendell are already going to run Senate or Governor, he might run for a row office and run for governor later on down the road.  He would be a good Lt. Gov. choice for Schwartz or Hoeffel though.

[WalterMitty]

obviously, toomey will be the front runner for the 2010 race.

santorum will be the senior senator from pennsylvania in jan. 2011.

[Keystone Phil]

To nini - I believe there is a chance that Santorum will run for Governor if he is ousted this year but like Adlai said, Casey will likely take a shot at it. I doubt Santorum would want to take him on again.

As for Dan Onorato, he has been rumored as a future statewide candidate (possibly for Governor) but I think he needs to build himself up more within the party.

Again to nini - Schwartz is interested in the Senate, not Governor. I can't see Schwartz winning a Senate seat and I really can't see her as Governor. Hoeffel might try for Governor since Schwartz will basically push him aside in a Senate primary.

[Colin]

For the Republicans I would definitely put Hart and Toomey into the running. Democrats will probably pull anyone of the people Phil and nini have said out of their grab bag.

I think Onorato definitely has a future for himself but 2010 will be too early for him to run for a high profile state-wide position like Senator, IMHO. I don't think he would make it through the primaries, especially out east. Schwartz is a definite possibility for a hypothetical 2010 race.

For Governor that's a little harder to imagine though I somehow can't see Santorum coming back from a Senate loss to run in the Governors race. I think if he loses in the Midterms he'll be done.

[TeePee4Prez]

Senate-

Democratic possibilties:

Likely:
1. Allyson Schwartz
2. Barbara Hafer

Probable:
3. Joe Hoeffel
4. Mark Singel

Sleepers:
5. Patrick Murphy (if he wins)
6. Ed Rendell

Republicans:

Likely:

1. Melissa Hart
2. Rick Santorum (if he loses)

Probable:
3. Pat Toomey

Sleepers:
4. Charlie Dent
5. Bill Scranton
6. Mike Fitzpatrick (if he wins)

My prediction: Allyson Schwartz (D) vs. Melissa Hart (R)

Governor:

Democrats:

Likely:
1. Bob Casey Jr.
2. Dan Onorato
3. T.J. Rooney

Sleepers:
4. Joe Hoeffel
5. Jennifer Mann
6. Josh Shapiro

Republicans:

Likely:
1. Lynn Swann (he'll go again unless he self-implodes)
2. Bill Scranton
3. Melissa Hart (she'll go for either seat)
4. Rick Santorum (this or the Senate if he loses.  Like Hart, he'll go for something)

My prediciton: Dan Onorato (D) vs. Bill Scranton (R).  Bob Casey will narrowly lose the primary.

[© tweed]

Why would Casey run for Governor four years after winning a senate seat?  Does he really not want to be a senator and is just using it as a springboard?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why would Casey run for Governor four years after winning a senate seat?  Does he really not want to be a senator and is just using it as a springboard?

In a nutshell.

OIf course he's young enough to serve a full term or two before running for governor. I think he might prefer to do that than simply become governor in 2010, serve two terms, and then have his political career over.

[Keystone Phil]

Why would Casey run for Governor four years after winning a senate seat?  Does he really not want to be a senator and is just using it as a springboard?

In a nutshell.

OIf course he's young enough to serve a full term or two before running for governor. I think he might prefer to do that than simply become governor in 2010, serve two terms, and then have his political career over.

Wrong. True, Casey doesn't want to be in the Senate but that's not the reason. He isn't using it as a springboard either. He has always wanted to follow in his father's footsteps and become Governor. It is that simple. I really don't think he has any desire for a political future beyond that.

[Keystone Phil]

Governor:

Sleepers:
4. Joe Hoeffel
5. Jennifer Mann
6. Josh Shapiro

He's most likely going for Congress when Schwartz goes for the Senate.

[TeePee4Prez]

Governor:

Sleepers:
4. Joe Hoeffel
5. Jennifer Mann
6. Josh Shapiro

He's most likely going for Congress when Schwartz goes for the Senate.

I'm thinking the same thing, but I heard his name for Gov on another site.  That's why I put him as a sleeper pick.

[Keystone Phil]

Governor:

Sleepers:
4. Joe Hoeffel
5. Jennifer Mann
6. Josh Shapiro

He's most likely going for Congress when Schwartz goes for the Senate.

I'm thinking the same thing, but I heard his name for Gov on another site.  That's why I put him as a sleeper pick.

A young, three term, very liberal State Rep. from the Philly suburbs running for Governor? I think Shapiro is smarter than that, Flyers. It's not even a sleeper pick.

[nini2287]

Governor:

Sleepers:
4. Joe Hoeffel
5. Jennifer Mann
6. Josh Shapiro

He's most likely going for Congress when Schwartz goes for the Senate.

I'm thinking the same thing, but I heard his name for Gov on another site.  That's why I put him as a sleeper pick.

A young, three term, very liberal State Rep. from the Philly suburbs running for Governor? I think Shapiro is smarter than that, Flyers. It's not even a sleeper pick.

My friend who used to work for Shapiro said Josh has a picture of himself with Joe Lieberman in his office-his staff "fears" that on a national level he might be somewhat of a conservative Deomcrat.  I would switch back to the Dems to vote for Shapiro in a Democratic primary.  I wrote him in this primary for State Rep. against the GOP candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

My friend who used to work for Shapiro said Josh has a picture of himself with Joe Lieberman in his office-his staff "fears" that on a national level he might be somewhat of a conservative Deomcrat.  I would switch back to the Dems to vote for Shapiro in a Democratic primary.  I wrote him in this primary for State Rep. against the GOP candidate.

Well, from what I hear on the state level, he is a big liberal. I'd love to see him become a more conservative Dem though especially if he'll be our next member of the House.

[nini2287]

My friend who used to work for Shapiro said Josh has a picture of himself with Joe Lieberman in his office-his staff "fears" that on a national level he might be somewhat of a conservative Deomcrat.  I would switch back to the Dems to vote for Shapiro in a Democratic primary.  I wrote him in this primary for State Rep. against the GOP candidate.

Well, from what I hear on the state level, he is a big liberal. I'd love to see him become a more conservative Dem though especially if he'll be our next member of the House.

I think he'll run for the House too though.  BTW, he did vote against the pay raise, fwiw.

[Keystone Phil]

I think he'll run for the House too though.  BTW, he did vote against the pay raise, fwiw.

I am a fan of his cell phone bill.

[nini2287]

I think he'll run for the House too though.  BTW, he did vote against the pay raise, fwiw.

I am a fan of his cell phone bill.

He's certainly better than the last legislator who proposed it (Veon).