Describe the Following Canadian Voters

[H. Ross Peron]

All at the Federal level:

A Conservative-NDP Swing Voter
A Conservative-Liberal Swing Voter
A NDP-Bloc Quebecois Swing Voter
A Liberal-Bloc Quebecois Swing Voter

[VPH]

Conservative-NDP Swing Voter: Somebody in rural Quebec (like Richmond-Arthabaska or Megantic-L'Erable) who picked the NDP in 2011 and 2015 but voted CAQ provincially and doesn't like Jagmeet. Fewer of these exist than NDP-Bloc swing voters.
Conservative-Liberal Swing Voter: Toronto or Vancouver suburbanite who supported Michael Chong or Lisa Raitt in the 2015 leadership race but is wary of the party's social conservative wing. These are pretty common in some ridings.
NDP-Bloc Quebecois Swing Voter: There are a lot all over Quebec; looking at swings in rural seats, it's clear that a lot of NDP voters swung to the Bloc in 2019. One possible urban one is a provincial QS voter in a Montreal island riding or in Sherbrooke who is a sovereignist but left-leaning. Probably voted NDP for the first time in 2011 and again in 2015. Maybe in 2019, but also felt that Quebec's interests needed more representation in 2019.
A Liberal-Bloc Quebecois Swing Voter: This one is harder but probably a CAQ-voting Francophone in a riding the Conservatives have no hope of winning?? Not a separatist but a nationalist nonetheless.

[beesley]

I think the above post is pretty accurate, but I can think of some alternates:

A Conservative/NDP Swing Voter: As well as those in Quebec, perhaps someone in the BC Interior linked to particular industries - they voted for the NDP under Mulcair and Layton, but between Jagmeet being too progressive and not supporting their industry and the anti-Trudeau vote coalescing around the Tories, they are left with no other choice. Similar to a few BCL and BCNDP swing voters.

A Conservative/Liberal Swing Voter: Outside of the 905, someone who was genuinely enthused by Justin Trudeau and may still be inclined towards him because of some of his policies (e.g. the Canada Child Benefit) but otherwise isn't that much better off and will reluctantly vote Conservative due to more faith in that party, as well as those voters who were turned off by Trudeau's ethics violations and some of his foreign policy.

An NDP-Bloc Swing Voter: I think VPH identified pretty much all of them, but also a few CAQ voters who aren't left-wing, but voted for the NDP in 2011 and maybe 2015 because of their advocacy for Quebec. There's probably some overlap between these voters and Liberal-Bloc Swing Voters and there are obviously a few who voted NDP in 2011, Liberal in 2015 and Bloc in 2019.

A Liberal-Bloc Swing Voter: Similar to the above, a nationalist but again probably a CAQ voter. They are conservative in the Legault sense - Quebec values, immigration, but don't care for the Western economics or social policy of the Federal Conservatives.

[VPH]

An NDP-Bloc Swing Voter: I think VPH identified pretty much all of them, but also a few CAQ voters who aren't left-wing, but voted for the NDP in 2011 and maybe 2015 because of their advocacy for Quebec.

There are a few ridings where this is a substantial portion of voters. Beloil-Chambly, Drummond, Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot. All flipped NDP to Bloc from 2015 to 2019, almost all overlap with areas of the province where CAQ obtained over 50% of the vote.