How many counties swung pro-Hoover in 1932?
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  How many counties swung pro-Hoover in 1932?
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Author Topic: How many counties swung pro-Hoover in 1932?  (Read 1029 times)
E-Dawg
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« on: March 17, 2021, 07:57:05 PM »

According to the Atlas Statistics on the 1932 election (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/stats.php?year=1932&f=1&off=0&elect=0) these were the 10 counties with the highest Republican swings between 1928-1932, with the amount GOP they swung.

Iberia, LA:  21.95%   
Iberville, LA: 20.34%   
St. John the Baptist, LA: 16.28%
Elk, PA: 13.68%
St. James, LA: 8.69%
St. Bernard, LA: 6.68%
West Baton Rouge, LA: 5.13%   
Zapata, TX: 4.21%   
Jackson, LA: 3.82%   
Lafourche, LA: 2.67%

(Note that these were all still Smith-Roosevelt counties despite the R swings). The Louisiana ones were all Catholic areas where Smith likely turned out many Catholic voters that Roosevelt failed to. There was also probably a group of ancestrally GOP Catholics who voted Smith due to perceived religious prejudice of the Hoovercrats but returned to their party in 1932 when religion wasn't an issue in the campaigns. Elk, PA is also a heavily Catholic area that probably shifted for the same two reasons.

The only one left is the now notorious Zapata, TX. Knowing that these South Texas counties were heavily machine-controlled at the time, the Democratic machine probably just was more effective in 1928 than in 1932. I have no idea how to otherwise explain the shift there. Considering that the county went from 89-10 GOP in 1916, to 66-34 GOP in 1920, to 60-40 DEM in 1924, to 94-6 DEM in 1928, to 92-8 DEM in 1932, this area was probably completely controlled by competing corrupt machines. None of these insane anti-bellwether swings seem natural or make clear sense otherwise.

Does anyone have access to a full list of counties that swung GOP in 1932? There can't be too many more than these 10 I imagine.
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TheReckoning
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2021, 12:37:31 AM »

Don’t know, don’t particularly care, at most another 10 beyond that list.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2021, 12:58:16 AM »

Zapata is probably just noise (also note most Hispanics are Catholic so that may have boosted Smith slightly as well). The rest as you say are clearly due to the Catholic factor.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2021, 06:23:11 PM »

Actually Jackson Parish is not a Catholic county so the swing there is interesting.  Most of the Louisiana counties listed were dominated by sugar cane plantations which could lead to unique political choices.
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HillGoose
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2021, 07:30:45 PM »

Fulton county NY apparently voted 71.2% for Hoover in 1928 and 71.4% for Hoover in 1932, while the Democratic percentage of the vote stayed at 27.1%.
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NotSoLucky
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2021, 11:39:41 AM »

Zapata is probably just noise (also note most Hispanics are Catholic so that may have boosted Smith slightly as well). The rest as you say are clearly due to the Catholic factor.
Weren't Latin Americans disenfranchised in Texas? A lot of them could only vote if a "boss" or "patron" paid the poll tax for them, and this was notoriously prone to corruption.
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E-Dawg
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« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2023, 01:39:44 PM »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_United_States_presidential_election_in_Connecticut

According to this article:
"Despite the massive nationwide shift towards Democrats, Hoover managed to flip the town of Marlborough, which voted for Democrats Al Smith in 1928 and John W. Davis in 1924, both of whom lost by landslide margins. Marlborough was the only town in Connecticut and one of only a few places in the nation to flip from Democratic to Republican in 1932."

Note that there is no source for this claim, so I have no clue where this information can be found.
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bagelman
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2023, 12:53:38 AM »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_United_States_presidential_election_in_Connecticut

According to this article:
"Despite the massive nationwide shift towards Democrats, Hoover managed to flip the town of Marlborough, which voted for Democrats Al Smith in 1928 and John W. Davis in 1924, both of whom lost by landslide margins. Marlborough was the only town in Connecticut and one of only a few places in the nation to flip from Democratic to Republican in 1932."

Note that there is no source for this claim, so I have no clue where this information can be found.

Marlborough was 85-82 for Hoover '32 (R+1.8), 71-70 for Smith '28 (D+0.8), and 68-62 for Davis '24 (D+4.6).

https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/SOTS/ElectionServices/StatementOfVote_PDFs/1932SOVpdf.pdf

https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/SOTS/ElectionServices/StatementOfVote_PDFs/1928SOVpdf.pdf

https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/SOTS/ElectionServices/StatementOfVote_PDFs/1924SOVpdf.pdf

In the modern day, Marlborough has voted for the national winner since 2008, going Trump '16.
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