What would a Libertarian or Green Party county look like?
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  What would a Libertarian or Green Party county look like?
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Author Topic: What would a Libertarian or Green Party county look like?  (Read 897 times)
TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« on: March 16, 2021, 11:24:35 AM »

What would be the demographic characteristics of a county that either voted majority Green/Libertarian or where Green or Libertarian candidates were competitive?
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支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)
khuzifenq
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« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2021, 01:51:17 PM »

  • Geographically very isolated from other population centers within the state. Would almost certainly have to be west of the Great Plains.
  • Economically dominated by one or two "out-there" industries that would favor said party (e.g. marijuana farming and/or eco-tourism)
  • Would have to be racially and religiously homogeneous (could be white, AIAN, NHPI, or mixed-race). There would need to be some sort of community cohesion beyond being super isolated that would make a strong perennial third-party presence sustainable.
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Sol
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« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2021, 02:01:36 PM »

  • Geographically very isolated from other population centers within the state. Would almost certainly have to be west of the Great Plains.
  • Economically dominated by one or two "out-there" industries that would favor said party (e.g. marijuana farming and/or eco-tourism)
  • Would have to be racially and religiously homogeneous (could be white, AIAN, NHPI, or mixed-race). There would need to be some sort of community cohesion beyond being super isolated that would make a strong perennial third-party presence sustainable.


Hot take--tbh I think only the last characteristic would need to be present. The equivalent of the first two which most readily springs to mind imo is the Golden Triangle in California, which votes firmly D.
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2021, 02:57:40 PM »

  • Geographically very isolated from other population centers within the state. Would almost certainly have to be west of the Great Plains.
  • Economically dominated by one or two "out-there" industries that would favor said party (e.g. marijuana farming and/or eco-tourism)
  • Would have to be racially and religiously homogeneous (could be white, AIAN, NHPI, or mixed-race). There would need to be some sort of community cohesion beyond being super isolated that would make a strong perennial third-party presence sustainable.


Hot take--tbh I think only the last characteristic would need to be present. The equivalent of the first two which most readily springs to mind imo is the Golden Triangle in California, which votes firmly D.

I'm glancing at Humbolt and in 2016 Johnson and Stein did combine to get 9.7% of the vote with all third party candidates receiving 13.1% in total. California has one of the most third party friendly electoral systems so I could see state level candidates doing even better.
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2021, 04:16:48 PM »

  • Geographically very isolated from other population centers within the state. Would almost certainly have to be west of the Great Plains.
  • Economically dominated by one or two "out-there" industries that would favor said party (e.g. marijuana farming and/or eco-tourism)
  • Would have to be racially and religiously homogeneous (could be white, AIAN, NHPI, or mixed-race). There would need to be some sort of community cohesion beyond being super isolated that would make a strong perennial third-party presence sustainable.


Hot take--tbh I think only the last characteristic would need to be present. The equivalent of the first two which most readily springs to mind imo is the Golden Triangle in California, which votes firmly D.

I'm glancing at Humbolt and in 2016 Johnson and Stein did combine to get 9.7% of the vote with all third party candidates receiving 13.1% in total. California has one of the most third party friendly electoral systems so I could see state level candidates doing even better.

Humboldt and Mendocino Counties have consistently been two of the best in the nation for the Green Party. Arcata in Humboldt County, home of Humboldt State University, once had a Green-majority council.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2021, 01:53:28 PM »

If I am not mistaken in 2016 the best Johnson county was Los Alamos, NM, getting close to 14% of the vote

Stein's best county was a bit of a special case, being Kalawao, HI (coming in 2nd; 14-5-1). Excluding Kalawao, Stein's best county seems to be Maui, HI (4.6%)

Seeing Johnson's (and McMullin's) results in 2016; I imagine the best way to get a third party county would be a strong "favourite son" effect.
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Sol
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« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2021, 02:05:44 PM »

There's still a long gap between 9% and 40%, much less 50%.

I think Jefferson County Iowa is a good contender, but it has too many non-Maharishi Vedic City people.

So you'd probably need a county or county equivalent where an insular religious or ethnic group, possibly both, is dominant, and a scenario where that group is alienated from both parties. Needless to say those are pretty stringent requirements.
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Wormless Gourd
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« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2021, 02:56:08 PM »

Green: San Juan county, WA or one of solidly D counties in VT besides Chittenden
Would have to be pretty rural, have a lot of boomers who worked in less common professions(organic farming, non-degree job at a university, some defunct government employer), attract college-educated people but lack an actual college
Doesn't have to be 90% white, can also be indigenous-heavy or Asian-heavy.

Libertarian: Some Great Plains county with residing landowners with very high incomes but high expenses. The actual voters would have a disproportionate amount of employers. I really have no clue. Could be in Eastern Montana/Western Dakotas.
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2021, 09:44:02 PM »

San Juan County WA and Humboldt/Mendocino were exactly what I had in mind for the Green Party. Not sure about the Libertarian Party, but I first thought of the Mountain West states.
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